I'm really not sticking my neck out this year with trying to predict upsets, like I usually try to do. No--this year, I'm trying to stick to consensus and gauge the atmosphere of the film industry. The only category that I am thinking an 'upset' will occur is Animated Feature, where Flow will take the prize over The Wild Robot. I think Anora will do very well, but not as well as it could, with three big awards: Picture, Director, and Original Screenplay, with a chance it may take Actress and Editing. The Brutalist is hot on its tail, though, with predictions in Actor, Cinematography, and Score. But Conclave may indeed be the one to win it all, with predicted Screenplay and Editing wins--a deadly combination. This is truly a spread-the-wealth year, with no one getting more than 3 predicted wins (including Emilia Pérez). The Substance, Dune, and Wicked look to get two each.
Best Picture
What a race this year! It began in Cannes, with Anora picking up the Palme d'Or, but with Emilia Pérez also picking up an award (Best Actress for its group of leading ladies). Then The Brutalist and Conclave flexed their muscles. Then A Complete Unknown shimmered for a brief moment, right on the eve of nominations. It looked like Conclave would be the consensus choice, but then Anora won the PGA and DGA and it looked like it was over... until Conclave once again won a major award with BAFTA. So it's been a wild ride, to say the least. I will go with current consensus Anora, but I would not be in the least bit surprised if we had a Conclave win.
Predicted Winner: Anora
Spoiler: Conclave
Dark Horse: The Brutalist
Director
This is a toss-up between Baker and Corbet. Baker won the DGA, and his film is the widely-predicted winner for Picture, but Corbet has been the one winning the vast majority of this category elsewhere, including BAFTA and the Globes. Corbet's film is hugely respected, given his achievement with a less than $10 million budget. I really don't know how this one will pan out in the end.
Predicted Winner: Sean Baker, Anora
Toss-up: Brady Corbet, The Brutalist
Actress
What a category! A three-way race this year, with Moore and Madison really battling it out, and Torres right behind them, waiting for an opportunity to pounce.... or so I like to imagine. Moore has the narrative: a comeback story, widely respected by the industry, a film that talks directly about her issues with 'aging out' in Hollywood, and a commanding performance; but Madison has the ingenue factor in a film that is the likely Best Picture winner, and a simply fantastic performance to boot. I think it really does come down to these two, with Moore coming out ahead in the end. I will be very much looking forward to the name that is announced.
Predicted Winner: Demi Moore, The Substance
Right Behind: Mikey Madison, Anora
Spoiler: Fernanda Torres, I'm Still Here
Actor
Brody is the anticipated winner, but I have a suspicison that it will be SAG-winner Chalamet. The wise money is still on Brody, despite the AI controversy that has emerged.
Predicted Winner: Adrien Brody, The Brutalist
Suspicion!: Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown
Supporting Actress
Saldaña has swept the season, but I think Grande gave the better performance. Yet there has been some whispers that Rossellini might snatch it away from the frontrunner.
Predicted Winner: Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez
Spoiler: Ariana Grande, Wicked
Suspicion!: Isabella Rossellini, Conclave
Supporting Actor
And Culkin should walk away with this easily, despite the fact that he really didn't give much of a performance, instead just being himself (or so the whispers are saying!)
Predicted Winner: Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain
Spoiler: Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown
Adapted Screenplay
Easy peasy, lemon squeezy. Possibly the most solid "lock" of the night.
Predicted Winner: Conclave
If Hell Freezes Over: Nickel Boys
Original Screenplay
A toss-up between Anora and A Real Pain. Best Picture hopeful Anora is more likely in my opinion, but what about Cannes winner (for screenplay) The Substance?
Predicted Winner: Anora
Right Behind: A Real Pain
Spoiler: The Substance
Cinematography
Ed Lachman has never won, but Crawley made an epic-looking film for a shoestring budget. Go with The Brutalist.
Predicted Winner: The Brutalist
Spoiler: Maria
Editing
Directors don't usually win this award (except Cuarón and Cameron in recent memory), and Conclave certainly made its dialogue-heavy script fly by with rather astute editing. But how could you deny the craft behind the home-invasion/kidnapping scene in Anora?
Predicted Winner: Conclave
Right Behind: Anora
Costume Design
I finally saw Wicked this past week, and I was enamoured with the costumes. I think the Academy will agree, and most are predicting this, too.
Predicted Winner: Wicked
Spoiler: Nosferatu
Production Design
Likewise in this category, Wicked managed to create a beautiful Oz, but the production elements were also key to The Brutalist's success. I don't think it's a toss-up, but I would not be shocked if Corbet's film took this one.
Predicted Winner: Wicked
Spoiler: The Brutalist
Makeup & Hairstyling
Great category this year! But the industry seems to be backing The Substance here: every anonymous Oscar ballot I've seen has said that this is the one to beat.
Predicted Winner: The Substance
Spoiler: Wicked
Sound
Dune probably has this in the bag, as its bone-shaking rumbling has really impressed the industry. But the task of recording live vocals (an idea I'm usually very suspicious of), and doing it very well, belongs to Wicked. I wouldn't be surprised if the musical takes it. Then again, A Complete Unknown also recorded live, and is a film which I thought earlier in the season might have emerged as a frontrunner for Picture. It also won the CAS. Okay, I'm overthinking things...
Predicted Winner: Dune: Part Two
Spoiler: Wicked
Dark Horse: A Complete Unknown
Original Score
The craft behind The Brutalist's score is undeniable, but if Conclave does particularly well, its also-great score could pick this one up, too.
Predicted Winner: The Brutalist
Spoiler: Conclave
Original Song
"El Mal" is the wise choice, but will Diane Warren finally get her "due" after so many nominations with no win? (Please, no.)
Predicted Winner: "El Mal", Emilia Pérez
Spoiler: "The Journey", The Six Triple Eight
Visual Effects
A pretty strong year for contenders, but it's gotta be Dune.
Predicted Winner: Dune: Part Two
Spoiler: Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes
International Feature
Yes, Emilia Pérez has a field-leading 13 nominations, so it's probably the smart bet... but I'm Still Here managed to sneak into the Best Picture ten, and is a suspect in an Actress upset. I would not be surprised if the Brazilian film won here.
Smart Money: Emilia Pérez (France)
Spoiler: I'm Still Here (Brazil)
Animated Feature
Chris Sanders is beloved by the industry, and has never won: but everyone I see is raving about Flow. (And for good reason: it's fantastic.) I think it will be the upset, given its likely international support and the fact that it has been surging lately. But The Wild Robot was the bigger hit, and has two other nominations. Smart money is on the maternal robot movie.
Predicted Winner: Flow
Wise Money: The Wild Robot
Documentary Feature
Very difficult category to predict. No Other Land is looking like the likely winner, but Porcelain War is equally topical and rather creative.
Predicted Winner: No Other Land
Spoiler: Porcelain War
Live Action Short
Hugely difficult category, because there are no real precursors and so few people are able to see these.
Predicted Winner: A Lien
Toss-up: The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent
Animated Short
Emotionally moving, or just delightful? That's always a toss-up here, but I think the easy-viewing Yuck! will get it. Maybe.
Toss-up: In the Shadow of the Cypress
Documentary Short
Easily accessible by viewers thanks to Netflix, The Only Girl in the Orchestra is a nice little piece about a female pioneer on the eve of retirement. But is it topical, like these winners usually are? Nope. I Am Ready, Warden and Incident are.
Predicted Winner: The Only Girl in the Orchestra
Toss-up: I am Ready, Warden
What do I know?: Incident
