2026 Oscar Predictions

Here are my annual predictions for the Academy Awards. I predict that One Battle After Another will win 6 Oscars: Best Picture, Director, Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, and Editing. Close behind is Sinners, with Actor, Original Screenplay, Casting, and Original Score. Frankenstein will do well in the crafts, with Costume Design, Makeup and Hairstyling, and Production Design wins. But there is a story here, one of ebbs and flows. One Battle After Another has swept the season, but with a pesky vampire film close behind it, looking for fresh blood. 

Best Picture

Once upon a time, Sinners was the clear frontrunner... then One Battle After Another debuted, and it was all over for Sinners. Who could stand up to the severely overdue Paul Thomas Anderson's masterful film? Well, the last month has shown us that Sinners may indeed be the one to overthrow PTA's apparent crowning-in-waiting. The buzz has been behind Coogler's film ever since it destroyed the record for the most nominations in a year, with 16 nods. One Battle has been winning, yes, but I feel it in the air that Sinners is duking it out with PTA, and just may win after all. Of course, that's not counting in TIFF People's Choice and Golden Globe winner Hamnet, which I suspect will do very well on the ranked ballots. I'm not holding my breath, but I have an inkling that Hamnet will be the surprise winner of Best Picture. This is down to the wire, people. After the show, will I be saying "Oh, it was One Battle After Another sweeping the season, after all. How could I have doubted that?" Or will I be going: "I knew it! Sinners pulled the carpet out of PTA's feet!" Or, will I be smacking myself: "I had a feeling it was going to be Hamnet! Why didn't I spring for that?" This is an exciting race, and it's what I look for every season: doubt. Surprises. Shocking winners. I tend to try and predict these surprises, because I overthink things and let this doubt creep in. But the smart money here? One Battle After Another.

Will Win: One Battle After Another
Could Win: Sinners
Dark Horse: Hamnet 

Director

PTA is in the lead, as he has been all season, but I think it's become more precarious over time. If Best Picture goes to Sinners, but Coogler misses here, it'll be the third time a Black-directed film wins Picture, but loses out on Directing. That's not a good look, but will voters be aware of this fact? I dunno. I do still think that PTA will take the Oscar, though.

Will Win: Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another
Could Win: Ryan Coogler, Sinners
Dark Horse: Chloé Zhao, Hamnet 

Actress

Buckley is in an easy lead here. I don't even know who would be her competition.

Will Win: Jessie Buckley, Hamnet
If Hell Freezes Over: Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I'd Kick You 

Actor

Now here's a race, and it's tooth and nail. Chalamet has been the supposed safe winner for most of the season, until he lost the BAFTA (to a non-Oscar nominated Robert Aramayo) and the Actor Award to Jordan. Sinners has been making a late-season surge in hype, and I'm really thinking--as with many other Oscar watchers--that Chalamet has lost his lead. It doesn't help he's been putting his foot in his mouth lately. What a year this has been for Jordan: he started off as the frontrunner, then lost his footing, made it into the nominee list by the slimmest of margins (I do think he was fifth), but then... Sinners has become the talk of the town again with its nominations haul. Wow. But that's not to say that any of the other nominees have no shot: I think this is a category in major flux, and I would honestly not be surprised if any of them take it.

Will Win: Michael B. Jordan, Sinners
Could Win: Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme
Dark Horse: Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another

Supporting Actress

The chaos continues here with probably the most competitive category of the evening. Taylor was in the lead for most of the season, with an early Globes win, but Madigan has always been part of the conversation: it's a beloved performance from a well-liked actress, yet the sole nominee for her film. Horror films also never do that well with the Academy, so they say... but is this still true? I mean, this year alone we have Frankenstein and Sinners racking up the wins and nominations. Mosaku has won the BAFTA and a number of critic awards, and I think she--like Jordan--can take advantage of Sinners' late season surge. I so think, however, that Madigan's now-iconic performance will take the win over Taylor and Mosaku; but it's anyone's guess who will actually win from these three. Will we see a split, and allow Lilleaas to swoop in? Nah. Probably not.

Will Win: Amy Madigan, Weapons
Could Win: Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners
Very Close Behind: Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another

Supporting Actor

Now, Penn is supposedly the clear winner here after his late season domination; but it just doesn't feel right, y'know? Three-time winner, Sean Penn? Yes, his performance dominated the film, and it's pretty weird, too: you can't take your eyes off of him. His co-star Del Toro did very well with the critics' awards, but his buzz seems to have fallen in the latter half of the race. Skarsgård has routinely been touted as the frontrunner, even though he does not have the stats to back this assertion. Time and time again, he has lost: he wasn't even nominated for the Actor Award. I don't think Skarsgård has this. But then, who does? Yes, Penn is the statistical most likely, so if you're trying for your Oscar pool, go with him. But I have a sneaking suspicion that it's gonna be Lindo. I have nothing to back me up here, other than Sinners surging lately, and the fact that he's well-liked by the community and has never been nominated before.

Most Likely: Sean Penn, One Battle After Another
Suspicion!: Delroy Lindo, Sinners
Could Win: Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value

Adapted Screenplay

Easy peasy, lemon squeezy: if PTA loses Director after all, he will still be an Oscar winner for his writing. 

Will Win: One Battle After Another
Not Likely: Hamnet

Original Screenplay

And another easy one: Coogler will also be a winner, even if he doesn't "steal" the Oscar for directing away from PTA.

Will Win: Sinners
Very Dark Horse: Sentimental Value

Casting

Sinners has been widely considered the frontrunner of this all season, and I do think that it is the likely winner. But what about the awesome cast of One Battle? Or the use of non-actors in The Secret Agent and Marty Supreme? Or the jackpot that was the children in Hamnet? I do think any of these films would be a worthy winner for the first-ever Casting Oscar.

Will Win: Sinners 
Could Win: One Battle After Another
I Want to Win: The Secret Agent

Cinematography

Battle and Sinners are indeed battling it out, once again, for an award. All season long, it's been Sinners out ahead, but with a string of wins lately, One Battle After Another, with its innovative cinematography, has really given Sinners a run for its money. Which one will come out ahead? It's hard to say... and that's not counting Train Dreams, with its beautiful work. Don't be surprised if that one wins, after all.

Will Win: One Battle After Another
Could Win: Sinners
Dark Horse: Train Dreams

Editing

Observers have been saying for most of the race that this is F1's to lose, but that has really turned around in the last month, with One Battle sweeping. 

Will Win: One Battle After Another
Could Win: F1

Costume Design

Even people who dislike the film have been saying all season long that Frankenstein is the deserving winner here. 

Will Win: Frankenstein
Could Win: Sinners

Production Design

Same thing. It's hard to deny Frankenstein's craft. 

Will Win: Frankenstein
Could Win: Sinners

Makeup & Hairstyling

And, once again... Such an interesting mix of nominees, though!

Will Win: Frankenstein
Could Win: Sinners

Sound

Once F1 snagged that Best Picture nomination, it was almost a guaranteed win here... but Sinners is on its tail. 

Will Win: F1
Could Win:Sinners

Original Score

An easy win for Sinners, but Greenwood would also be a worthy (first-time!) winner. 

Will Win: Sinners
Could Win: One Battle After Another

Original Song

I've been reading that people are actually finally getting sick of that KPop Demon Hunters song, and that this may actually slip out of its hands. Probably not, though.

Will Win: "Golden", KPop Demon Hunters
Could Win: "I Lied to You", Sinners
Please, No: "Dear Me", Diane Warren: Relentless

Visual Effects

An easy win here, but like Original Song, are voters getting tired of Avatar?

Will Win: Avatar: Fire and Ash
Could Win: F1

International Feature

Now, here we have a bit of a confusing category. It would seem that Sentimental Value would be the 'obvious' choice, given its slew of nominations... but The Secret Agent is also in key categories of Picture, Actor, and Casting. It comes down to these two, but It Was Just an Accident is hot on their tracks. I don't see Sirat or The Voice of Hind Rajab making an impact, but with any of these other three, you could make a solid case. Sentimental Value was snubbed at the Actor Awards, but is clearly very well liked by the Academy; The Secret Agent has the international 'Brazilian factor' going on (see last year's winner I'm Still Here); It Was Just an Accident has the obvious political ramifications of an Iranian filmmaker going against the regime. The general consensus is Sentimental Value, but I really do think that The Secret Agent is going to put up a vicious fight.

Will Win: Sentimental Value
Could Win: The Secret Agent
Dark Horse: It Was Just an Accident   

Animated Feature

This is very clearly going KPop Demon Hunters, despite the 'anonymous ballots' suggesting some fatigue going on. There is just no clear alternative. 

Will Win: KPop Demon Hunters
Could Win: Zootopia 2

Documentary Feature

Smart money is on The Perfect Neighbor, with the alternate being Mr. Nobody Against Putin. I don't see anything else winning, but then again, what do I know? This category, along with the shorts, often pops up surprises for us.

Will Win: The Perfect Neighbor
Could Win: Mr. Nobody Against Putin

Animated Short

This appears to be a battle between Butterfly and The Girl Who Cried Pearls, with Butterfly coming out on top.

Will Win: Butterfly
Could Win: The Girl Who Cried Pearls

Documentary Short 

Subtext is everything in All the Empty Rooms, and what subtext! This film screams "Oscar winner" to me, especially given voters' tendencies to reward the politics of the short docs, rather than the quality of the film itself. (I've seen more than a few people critique All the Empty Rooms as being somewhat of a bland film, despite the emotional resonance.) But what could go against it? Maybe Armed With Only a Camera?

Will Win: All the Empty Rooms
Could Win: Armed With Only a Camera

Live Action Short

I've seen all of these, and I'm struggling with my desire of who I want to win with whom I think will win. My favourite was very clearly Two People Exchanging Saliva, and I feel that it's by far and away the most accomplished film here... but it's also patently bizarre and even confrontational with its eccentricities. Does that mean that the adorable, but lightweight, A Friend of Dorothy has a better chance, especially given that it's been campaigned fairly hard and will appeal to voters' liberal politics? I think it might. The Singers is the other short that stands a chance against these two, as it's well made, memorable, and emotionally affecting. I don't see Jane Austen's Period Drama making an impact (it's more like a good SNL sketch), and Butcher's Stain is in my, and in many other people's opinions, not up to par with the others. (I actively disliked the short.) So that means...

Will Win: A Friend of Dorothy
Could Win: Two People Exchanging Saliva  

Oscar Nominations Reaction 2026

How did I do? 87/110, or a B+. This is on par with my usual performance. 

Sixteen nominations: a new record by Sinners. And the kicker? It would have broken the record even without the new category of Casting. This is surely the story of the morning, but there's another one that I think is also quite interesting.

I have never seen an actual snub like this one. I was calling for seven nominations for Wicked: For Good, and it received... none. I think we in the awards race overuse the term "snub", but this certainly should count as one. What happened? I think the fact that the two films are basically just one very long movie split into two meant that nominators saw the film already be awarded last year. But that explanation still doesn't quite sit right with me. I think analysts will be looking at this one for a long time to come.

One Battle After Another is in second place with 13 nominations, missing one with Chase Infiniti, who was edged out by Kate Hudson--not an entirely unforeseen situation, mind you. Hamnet didn't do quite as well as I thought, with Paul Mescal missing, but Sentimental Value did very well indeed. That film missing nominations at the Actor Awards can now be seen as an anomaly, and Skarsgård may actually win the Oscar. Also doing very well are Frankenstein and Marty Supreme. It may be unusual for a film with nine nominations to miss out a Directing nod, but Del Toro was squeaked out by Trier and Safie--two other filmmakers with nine-time nominated films. I think that this year saw a relatively small number of films dominating, with massive hauls. 

Other surprises? Avatar getting into costumes; visual effects not going the way many were expecting; and makeup & hairstyling going for some more obscure work (which actually isn't all that surprising: this category very often goes its own way). I didn't see that Viva Verdi song coming--I haven't even heard of the film--but other than these relatively minor surprises, there weren't very many.

Best Picture

1. One Battle After Another
2. Sinners
3. Hamnet
4. Marty Supreme
5. Frankenstein
6. Sentimental Value
7. Bugonia
8. Train Dreams
9. The Secret Agent
11. F1

9/10

Director
Huh. I was anticipating a surprise, maybe two, but instead got all five.

1. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another
2. Ryan Coogler, Sinners
3. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet
4. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value
5. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme

5/5

Actress

1. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet
2. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I'd Kick You
3. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value
4. Emma Stone, Bugonia
6. Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue

4/5

Actor

1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme
2. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another
3. Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon
4. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners
5. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent

5/5

Supporting Actress
Even Grande was a victim of the Wicked: For Good snub going on.

1. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another
2. Amy Madigan, Weapons
3. Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners
4. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, Sentimental Value
7. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value

4/5

Supporting Actor
I'm actually surprised that Mescal didn't land here: category fraud? Too subtle?

1. Benicio Del Toro, One Battle After Another
2. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another
3. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value
4. Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein
8. Delroy Lindo, Sinners

4/5

Adapted Screenplay

1. One Battle After Another
2. Hamnet
3. Bugonia
4. Train Dreams
5. Frankenstein

5/5

Original Screenplay

1. Sinners
2. Sentimental Value
3. Marty Supreme
4. It Was Just An Accident
7. Blue Moon

4/5

Casting
And that was less surprising than I thought it would be. 

1. Sinners 
2. One Battle After Another
3. Marty Supreme
4. Hamnet
6. The Secret Agent

4/5

Cinematography

1. Sinners
2. One Battle After Another
3. Train Dreams
4. Frankenstein
6. Marty Supreme

4/5

Editing

1. One Battle After Another
2. Marty Supreme
3. Sinners
4. F1
6. Sentimental Value

4/5

Costume Design
The top four are locked in, but beyond that, this category often throws us a surprise or two. I suspect Hamnet may not be as strong as we think, and that Hedda or Spider Woman may be shockers.

1. Frankenstein
3. Sinners
4. Hamnet
6. Marty Supreme
-. Avatar: Fire and Ash

3/5 

Production Design

1. Frankenstein
2. Sinners
4. Hamnet
5. Marty Supreme
7. One Battle After Another

4/5

Makeup & Hairstyling

1. Frankenstein
2. Sinners
4. The Smashing Machine
6. The Ugly Stepsister
8. Kokuho

3/5 

Sound

1. F1
2. Sinners
3. One Battle After Another
6. Sirat
7. Frankenstein

3/5

Original Score

1. Sinners
2. One Battle After Another
3. Hamnet
4. Frankenstein
10. Bugonia

 4/5 

Original Song

1. "Golden", KPop Demon Hunters
2. "I Lied to You", Sinners
4. "Dear Me", Diane Warren: Relentless
5. "Train Dreams", Train Dreams
-. "Sweet Dreams of Joy", Viva Verdi

4/5 

Visual Effects

1. Avatar: Fire and Ash
2. F1
5. Sinners
7. The Lost Bus
9. Jurassic World Rebirth

3/5

International Feature
And Tunisia was the spoiler--sorry, No Other Choice. 

1. The Secret Agent (Brazil)
2. Sentimental Value (Norway)
3. It Was Just an Accident (France)
4. Sirat (Spain)
6. The Voice of Hind Rajab (Tunisia)

4/5

Animated Feature

1. KPop Demon Hunters
2. Zootopia 2
3. Arco
4. Elio
5. Little Amélie or the Character of Rain

5/5

Documentary Feature

2. The Perfect Neighbor
4. The Alabama Solution
7. Come See Me in the Good Light
8. Mr. Nobody Against Putin
9. Cutting Through Rocks

2/5

TALLIES

Sixteen: Sinners
Thirteen: One Battle After Another
Nine: Frankenstein, Marty Supreme, Sentimental Value
Eight: Hamnet
Five: Train Dreams
Four: Bugonia, F1, The Secret Agent
Two: Avatar: Fire and Ash, Blue Moon, KPop Demon Hunters, It Was Just an Accident, Sirat

Oscar Nominations Predictions 2026

 (Image from The Playlist)

This is a kinda crazy, but I'm calling for three films to get 11+ nominations: Sinners with 15, One Battle After Another with 14, and Hamnet with 11. Also doing very well, thank you, are Marty Supreme, Frankenstein and Sentimental Value: the last one surprises me, because it was snubbed entirely by the Actor Awards (formerly SAG). This season has been dominated by these half dozen films, with other Oscar hopefuls lagging behind. The eventual winner of Best Picture will be one of those top three contenders, and I don't think it's as written in stone for Battle as much as others are predicting. I think PTA will definitely win Director, but Picture might be more of a, well, battle, especially if Sinners beats the nominations record with those 15 noms.

Best Picture

1. One Battle After Another
2. Sinners
3. Hamnet
4. Marty Supreme
5. Frankenstein
6. Sentimental Value
7. Bugonia
8. Train Dreams
9. The Secret Agent
10. It Was Just an Accident
11. F1
12. Wicked: For Good
13. Weapons
14. Avatar: Fire and Ash
15. Sorry, Baby

Director
The top three are very stable, but I find the next four contenders are really battling it out. Trier's film was snubbed--as I previously mentioned--at the Actor Awards, Safdie might be a bit too "out there", Panahi's film has fallen in the rankings, and Del Toro is here because of the strength of his film's crafts. I do think this category is ripe for surprises, though, as it is almost every year.

1. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another
2. Ryan Coogler, Sinners
3. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet
4. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value
5. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme
6. Guillermo Del Toro, Frankenstein
7. Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident
8. Kleber Mendonca Filho, The Secret Agent
9. Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia
10. Clint Bentley, Train Dreams
11. John M. Chu, Wicked: For Good
12. Park Chan-wook, No Other Choice 

Actress
Another category that I think is in flux is this one, with Buckley being the only true 'safe' option. Byrne has swept the critic circles, yes, but this would be her film's only nomination. Reinsve was snubbed (I keep belabouring this point because I think it could really mean something in the end) at the Actors, while Stone has been picking up speed. The fifth slot could be newcomer Infiniti's, but it could just as easily be Hudson or Seyfried.

1. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet
2. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I'd Kick You
3. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value
4. Emma Stone, Bugonia
5. Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another
6. Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue
7. Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee
8. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good
9. Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love
10. Eva Victor, Sorry, Baby

Actor
The top 6 are stable; beyond that, I'd say only Edgerton has a remote chance of snagging a nomination. My gut says that Isaac is more likely than we think, but there's not much evidence to support this assertion. I do think that Moura is in a more precarious place than it seems, as is Jordan.

1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme
2. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another
3. Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon
4. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners
5. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent
6. Jesse Plemons, Bugonia
7. Joel Edgerton, Train Dreams
8. George Clooney, Jay Kelly
9. Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine
10. Lee Byung-hun, No Other Choice
11. Oscar Isaac, Frankenstein 

Supporting Actress
This strikes me as a bit of a bloodbath of a category. I can see any of my top 8 making it in, and I don't think anyone is safe (except Teyana Taylor). I'm rooting for Madigan for the win, and horror has been doing a bit better lately with the Academy, meaning that Mosaku is also in the running. But beyond that? Lilleaas was snubbed (along with everyone else) at the Actor Awards (formerly the SAG Awards), Grande's film has tanked in contention, A'zion is not well known, and Paltrow still has the unspoken connection with a particular, now disgraced, producer that I think is actually making an impact.

1. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another
2. Amy Madigan, Weapons
3. Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners
4. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, Sentimental Value
5. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good
6. Odessa A'zion, Marty Supreme
7. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value
8. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme
9. Regina Hall, One Battle After Another
10. Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine

Supporting Actor
This is unusual: a category in which many of us are having difficulty filling out a top ten. The top five seem very stable, although Caton picking up an Actor Award nomination throwing a slight wrench into things. Sandler, Lindo, and Scott seem like distant runners in the race, and I'm just throwing my own opinion for the tenth slot.

1. Benicio Del Toro, One Battle After Another
2. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another
3. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value
4. Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein
5. Paul Mescal, Hamnet
6. Miles Caton, Sinners
7. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly
8. Delroy Lindo, Sinners
9. Andrew Scott, Blue Moon
10. Jack O'Connell, Sinners

Adapted Screenplay
Another safe top five. 

1. One Battle After Another
2. Hamnet
3. Bugonia
4. Train Dreams
5. Frankenstein
6. No Other Choice
7. Wake Up Dead Man
8. Hedda
9. Nouvelle Vague
10. Wicked: For Good

Original Screenplay
Now here is a category that could reap some big surprises. Will Panahi be snubbed? Will Victor actually get nominated? The Secret Agent could either make a big splash tomorrow morning, or land with a thud. What about dark horse Weapons? 

1. Sinners
2. Sentimental Value
3. Marty Supreme
4. It Was Just An Accident
5. Sorry, Baby
6. The Secret Agent
7. Blue Moon
8. Weapons
9. Jay Kelly
10. If I Had Legs I'd Kick You

Casting 
A new category! Will this be just an award for 'best cast' or 'best ensemble', or will the craft of casting actually be taken quite seriously? I think Wicked's casting was inspired, but the film's disappointing reception may make an impact. Hamnet is actually a small cast, but it's a solid one--does that mean it gets in? Will the two Big Frontrunners of Sinners and One Battle After Another be a shoo-in here, or will the casting directors look elsewhere? This is a big question mark of a category, and it's exciting!

1. Sinners 
2. One Battle After Another
3. Marty Supreme
4. Hamnet
5. Sentimental Value
6. The Secret Agent
7. Weapons
8. Wicked: For Good
9. Frankenstein
10. Sirat

Cinematography

1. Sinners
2. One Battle After Another
3. Train Dreams
4. Frankenstein
5. Hamnet
6. Marty Supreme
7. F1
8. Nouvelle Vague
9. Bugonia
10. Sirat

Editing
A very stable top five.

1. One Battle After Another
2. Marty Supreme
3. Sinners
4. F1
5. Hamnet
6. Sentimental Value
7. Frankenstein
8. Bugonia
9. No Other Choice
10. Sirat

Costume Design
The top four are locked in, but beyond that, this category often throws us a surprise or two. I suspect Hamnet may not be as strong as we think, and that Hedda or Spider Woman may be shockers.

1. Frankenstein
2. Wicked: For Good
3. Sinners
4. Hamnet
5. The Testament of Ann Lee
6. Marty Supreme
7. Hedda
8. One Battle After Another
9. The Secret Agent
10. Kiss of the Spider Woman

Production Design
 I'm putting Avatar in the sixth spot, because I do think there's a bit of a backlash against digital production design. I'm also not confident in Hamnet or Marty Supreme here, though.

1. Frankenstein
2. Sinners
3. Wicked: For Good
4. Hamnet
5. Marty Supreme
6. Avatar: Fire and Ash
7. One Battle After Another
8. The Phoenician Scheme
9. The Testament of Ann Lee
10. The Fantastic Four: First Steps

Makeup & Hairstyling
I expect there to be a surprise here, maybe for The Ugly Stepsister.

1. Frankenstein
2. Sinners
3. Wicked: For Good
4. The Smashing Machine
5. One Battle After Another
6. The Ugly Stepsister
7. Marty Supreme
8. Kokuho
9. Nuremberg
10. The Alto Knights

Sound
A solid top five, with Sirat being the spoiler, I think.

1. F1
2. Sinners
3. One Battle After Another
4. Avatar: Fire and Ash
5. Wicked: For Good
6. Sirat
7. Frankenstein
8. Mission: Impossible - The Final Reckoning
9. Superman
10. Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere

Original Score
It would be cool to have a techno score nominated in Sirat, but I don't think that's actually going to happen!

1. Sinners
2. One Battle After Another
3. Hamnet
4. Frankenstein
5. Marty Supreme
6. Sirat
7. F1
8. Train Dreams
9. Tron: Ares
10. Bugonia

Original Song
This category is always a bit of a crapshoot... who will make it in? Please, not Warren!

1. "Golden", KPop Demon Hunters
2. "I Lied to You", Sinners
3. "The Girl in the Bubble", Wicked: For Good
4. "Dear Me", Diane Warren: Relentless
5. "Train Dreams", Train Dreams
6. "Last Time I Seen the Sun", Sinners
7. "Dream As One", Avatar: Fire and Ash
8. "No Place Like Home", Wicked: For Good
9. "Come See Me in the Good Light", Salt Then Sour Then Sweet
10. "Highest 2 Lowest", Highest 2 Lowest

Visual Effects

1. Avatar: Fire and Ash
2. F1
3. Superman
4. Wicked: For Good
5. Sinners
6. Frankenstein
7. The Lost Bus
8. Tron: Ares
9. Jurassic World Rebirth
10. The Electric State

International Feature
I think the top five is stable, but Tunisia's entry being the potential spoiler. The rest are along for the ride.

1. The Secret Agent (Brazil)
2. Sentimental Value (Norway)
3. It Was Just an Accident (France)
4. Sirat (Spain)
5. No Other Choice (South Korea)
6. The Voice of Hind Rajab (Tunisia)
7. Left Handed Girl (Taiwan)
8. Sound of Falling (Germany)
9. The President's Cake (Iraq)
10. Kokuho (Japan)

Animated Feature
Stable top four, but the rest are slugging it out. 

1. KPop Demon Hunters
2. Zootopia 2
3. Arco
4. Elio
5. Little Amélie or the Character of Rain
6. Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba Infinity Castle
7. Scarlet
8. In Your Dreams
9. Chainsaw Man — The Movie: Reze Arc
10. The Bad Guys 2

Documentary Feature
I never know in this category, yet last year I got four!

1. 2000 Meters to Andriivka
2. The Perfect Neighbor
3. Cover-Up
4. The Alabama Solution
5. Apocalypse in the Tropics
6. My Undesirable Friends
7. Come See Me in the Good Light
8. Mr. Nobody Against Putin
9. Cutting Through Rocks
10. Coexistence, My Ass!

TALLIES

Fifteen: Sinners
Fourteen: One Battle After Another
Eleven: Hamnet
Eight: Frankenstein, Marty Supreme, Sentimental Value
Seven: Wicked: For Good
Four: Train Dreams
Three: Bugonia, F1, It Was Just an Accident, The Secret Agent
Two: Avatar: Fire and Ash, KPop Demon Hunters
One: The Alabama Solution, Apocalypse in the Tropics, 2000 Meters to Andriivka, Arco, Blue Moon, Cover Up, Diane Warren: Relentless, Elio, If I Had Legs I'd Kick You, Little Amélie or the Character of Rain, No Other Choice, The Perfect Neighbor, The Smashing Machine, Sirat, Sorry Baby, Superman, The Testament of Ann Lee, Weapons, Zootopia 2

Oscar Predictions 2024

 

This year has some very predictable races - and some very close ones, too. Oppenheimer is looking to have a sweep: I'm predicting it will win eight awards, but it may even be nine if it wins for its screenplay. But some of these categories are very, very competitive: will Barbie or Poor Things win in Costumes and Production design? No one is all that confident in their predictions there. And what about Lead Actress? It's a coin-toss at this point between Lily Gladstone and Emma Stone. The Battle of the Stones, it can be called. 

I'm actually playing it safe this year, which is somewhat unusual for me: I'm going with almost entirely consensus choices, except in one category, Adapted Screenplay. There I suspect that Barbie will be the 'surprise' winner. Otherwise? I'm not confident in any other bolder choices.

So, let's begin!

PICTURE

If you thought last year's Everything Everywhere All At Once was a front-runner, oh boy! Oppenheimer has this in the bag. I'm not even sure what could dethrone it at this point. Yes, Poor Things is amazing, but it will also be too weird for voters. The Holdovers was a potential upset like a month ago, but I feel that the film has declined in buzz from the beginning of the season. The film that I've heard people talk about a lot is actually Anatomy of a Fall: I think that it will do well on the ranked ballots - but well enough? No. Another film that may do well on the ranked ballot is American Fiction, but I also don't think it will be an upset.

1. Oppenheimer
2. Poor Things
3. The Holdovers
4. Anatomy of a Fall
5. Barbie
6. American Fiction
7. Killers of the Flower Moon
8. The Zone of Interest
9. Past Lives
10. Maestro

DIRECTING 

Why bother writing something up when we all know my personal favourite (/s), Christoper Nolan, has been completely sweeping the season? Lanthimos I think has the best chance to put up a fight, and despite all the pundits placing her last, I think Triet could be the spoiler.

1. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer
2. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things
3. Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall
4. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon
5. Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest

ACTRESS

Now, we know that Hollywood loves a "narrative" when it comes to its awards. Lily Gladstone not only gave an amazing performance, but she will be the first Indigenous actor to win an Oscar -- that is, if Emma Stone's undeniably even more amazing performance pulls it off. This is one of the nail-biter awards of the night. Gladstone wasn't nominated for the BAFTA (a huge hurdle to overcome) yet won the SAG, but she also has a role that could have easily been placed in the supporting category instead of lead. I don't think that will be her undoing, and Stone already has an Oscar, but damn... that performance of Stone's is an all-timer.

1. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon
2. Emma Stone, Poor Things
3. Sandra Huller, Anatomy of a Fall
4. Annette Bening, Nyad
5. Carey Mulligan, Maestro

ACTOR

Cillian Murphy is so central to the success of Oppenheimer that I think it will be difficult for voters to award anyone else the Oscar. Giamatti had the edge only a month ago, but as I've said above, his film has lost some of the buzz.

1. Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer
2. Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers
3. Bradley Cooper, Maestro
4. Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction
5. Colman Domingo, Rustin

SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Da'Vine Joy Randolph has been sweeping the season, and I think for good reason. It's a great performance in a well-loved film, and she has been a gracious winner throughout the season. I think that Blunt has a huge uphill fight to beat Randolph.

1. Da'Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers
2. Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer
3. America Ferrera, Barbie
4. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple
5. Jodie Foster, Nyad

SUPPORTING ACTOR

After like a decade plus of doing superhero fare, Downey broke free and showed us that yes, he can act. But I really want to see Gosling win here, I really do. He was the highlight of his film for me - but that was the problem, apparently, if you listened to Film Twitter. To have Barbie's only acting win be for a man is ~problematic~. I think that will be the undoing of him, unfortunately. But what a stacked category this year, I must say!

1. Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer
2. Ryan Gosling, Barbie
3. Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things
4. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon
5. Sterling K. Brown, American Fiction

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY 

Some pundits are saying that this is American Fiction's to lose, and I'm not sure I agree. You have it competing here with two of the biggest movies of the year: one that is set to sweep the Oscars, and the other that has been praised for its screenplay and has a swell of good-cheer for it to win some awards after two high-profile apparent "snubs". They are Oppenheimer and Barbie, and I think of the two, it will be Barbie that will win this award. Oppenheimer strikes me as more of a directing and acting showcase than for its writing, while Barbie is a feat of taking things down the untraveled road: it's unexpected. I did not particularly care for this road, but I know many, many people did. And so, my first non-consensus choice is:

1. Greta Gerwig and Noah Baumbach, Barbie
2. Cord Jefferson, American Fiction
3. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer
4. Tony McNamara, Poor Things
5. Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

If the Oscars were a month earlier, this would be The Holdovers all the way. But there has been a swell of interest for the Cannes-winning Anatomy of a Fall, and most of it is around the performance of Huller, and the screenplay. I see on Twitter people discussing the film a lot, and I just think it has the edge right now (and most pundits agree!)

1. Justine Triet and Arthur Harari, Anatomy of a Fall
2. David Hemingson, The Holdovers
3. Celine Song, Past Lives
4. Samy Burch, May December
5. Bradley Cooper and Josh Singer, Maestro

CINEMATOGRAPHY

The sheer variety of the camerawork in Oppenheimer, as well as its scale and the narrative around how important it is to the film, surely will give it the edge here. I think that if there is competition, it's the bravura weirdness of Poor Things: but that's just it, isn't it? It's weird. Too weird for some. Killers seems to be another candidate, but I just don't think it has the "wow" factor that these other two films have. El Conde won't be as seen as the others, and well, Maestro has had a difficult time lately.

1. Oppenheimer
2. Poor Things
3. Killers of the Flower Moon
4. El Conde
5. Maestro

EDITING 

Remember, kids: in this category, it's often "more editing" equals "best editing". The flashier the cuts, the more complex the overall story design, the more action sequences, the better the chance of winning. So the fact that the Best Picture front-runner pretty well has these things means that it will very likely pick this category up, easily.

1. Oppenheimer
2. Killers of the Flower Moon
3. Anatomy of a Fall
4. Poor Things
5. The Holdovers

PRODUCTION DESIGN

There is some very strong work this year in this category, but I think the general consensus is that it will go to the delightful Poor Things. Thank goodness, too, because I actually don't have it winning in any other category - and it's my favourite film of last year so far. However, Barbie is hot on its trail, because that was some spectacular work, too. (EDIT: And, in fact, Barbie leads on Gold Derby.)

1. Poor Things
2. Barbie
3. Oppenheimer
4. Killers of the Flower Moon
5. Napoleon

COSTUME DESIGN

Now, here's a race. It's a total toss-up for me: the dazzling plastic pop art of Barbie, or the dazzling poofy steampunk of Poor Things? I'll be switching between these two before Sunday night, I know, but at this point, I think it'll be Barbie for costumes, and Poor Things for production design. Or will it be the other way around? Ugh.

1. Barbie
2. Poor Things
3. Killers of the Flower Moon
4. Napoleon
5. Oppenheimer

MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

 This is supposedly Maestro's to lose, but there has also been controversy surrounding the film's makeup decisions... but that didn't stop The Whale last year. Poor Things is the spoiler, and it certainly has a good chance.

1. Maestro
2. Poor Things
3. Society of the Snow
4. Oppenheimer
5. Golda

SOUND

This is clearly Oppenheimer's to lose, despite the general accusations regarding Nolan's sound mixing being sometimes incomprehensible. It seems that the consensus is that Oppenheimer isn't nearly as bad as some of his other films, and is actually quite well done. But is it as well done as The Zone of Interest? Heck no. That film is defined by its sound design: we never see any of the atrocities, but we definitely hear them throughout. I think that this is more of a close race than what is generally thought.

1. Oppenheimer
2. The Zone of Interest
3. Maestro
4. Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One
5. The Creator

ORIGINAL SCORE

Another category to be swept by Oppenheimer, and I can't think of another film that is putting up much of a fight here: I'm actually having a difficult time determining the ranked order. It will be a simple "check" on voters' ballots.

1. Ludwig Goransson, Oppenheimer
2. Jerskin Fendrix, Poor Things
3. Laura Karpman, American Fiction
4. Robbie Robertson, Killers of the Flower Moon
5. John Williams, Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny

ORIGINAL SONG 

Now, which Barbie song will it be? "What Was I Made For?" has been the favourite all season, but there has been a groundswell behind "I'm Just Ken" recently. Lots of buzz around if Gosling will perform this at the ceremony. The other nominees are clearly just in for the ride.

1. What Was I Made For?, Barbie
2. I'm Just Ken, Barbie
3. Wahzhazhe (A Song for My People), Killers of the Flower Moon
4. The Fire Inside, Flamin' Hot
5. It Never Went Away, American Symphony

VISUAL EFFECTS

Now this is a heart-warming narrative: the team behind Godzilla Minus One has been everywhere and been a delight. They are a very small team, especially when compared to the hundreds of artists behind superhero fare, and I think there's enough goodwill to give them the Oscar. The Creator is the competition.

1. Godzilla Minus One
2. The Creator
3. Napoleon
4. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 3
5. Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One

ANIMATED FEATURE

This may be our last chance to award Miyazaki, and it's for a film that has made quite a wave. Spider-Man will have another chance.

 1. The Boy and the Heron
2. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-verse
3. Robot Dreams
4. Elemental
5. Nimona

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

This one seems to be an obvious winner to me, as it has quality and the good politics that the Academy loves to pat its back over. I'm not sure if I've seen anyone predict another winner here.

1. 20 Days in Mariupol
2. Four Daughters
3. Bobi Wine: The People's President
4. The Eternal Memory
5. To Kill a Tiger

INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

Another very obvious winner. As I said last year, no film that has been nominated for Best Picture has lost here.

1. The Zone of Interest (United Kingdom)
2. Society of the Snow (Spain)
3. Perfect Days (Japan)
4. The Teachers' Lounge (Germany)
5. Io Capitano (Italy)

ANIMATED SHORT

Letter to a Pig has been the clear favourite ever since the nominations were announced. War is Over! is considered to be the competition, but there's also the well-liked Ninety-Five Senses. Normally, these are very difficult categories to predict, but this year this one seems to be wrapped up.

1. Letter to a Pig
2. War is Over! Inspired By the Music of John & Yoko
3. Ninety-Five Senses
4. Our Uniform
5. Pachyderme

DOCUMENTARY SHORT

On the other hand, pundits are all over the place with this category. I haven't seen them and this sometimes makes it difficult to predict, especially when the experts don't know, either. The ABCs of Book Banning is the topical choice, but there's been some concerns about its accuracy (I've heard that the children were coached in their answers). I wouldn't be surprised if this goes to The Last Repair Shop, or Nai Nai and Wai Po. It seems that the other two nominees are also-rans.

1. The ABCs of Book Banning
2. The Last Repair Shop
3. Nai Nai and Wai Po
4. The Barber of Little Rock
5. Island in Between

LIVE ACTION SHORT

And here was have another very easy choice: it must be Wes Anderson. The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar is easily accessible on Netflix, is delightful, and it would be a chance to give an Oscar to Anderson.

1. The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar
2. Red White and Blue
3. The After
4. Invincible
4. Knight of Fortune

TALLY

Oppenheimer - 8 (Picture, Director, Lead Actor, Supp. Actor, Cinematography, Editing, Sound, Original Score)

Barbie -  3 (Adapted Screenplay, Costumes, Original Song)

 

Oscar Nominations Reaction 2022

75/105

Certainly not my best year, but that's also because of so many surprises! Almost every category had a "Huh! Didn't see that coming" moment: Nightmare Alley sneaking into Picture; Villeneuve missing like he did at the BAFTAs; surprises in both supporting acting roles (Simmons? Dench?); West Side Story doing well, but not quite as well as I was expecting; editing, which left out some key players; Drive My Car getting four nominations, not just for International; and the hilarious snubs of House of Gucci.

It certainly looks like The Power of the Dog's to lose at this point, as it leads with twelve nominations, a little bit more than what people were predicting.

Best Picture

1. Belfast
2. The Power of the Dog
3. Dune
4. West Side Story
5. Licorice Pizza
6. CODA
7. King Richard
8. Don't Look Up
10. Drive My Car
13. Nightmare Alley

9/10

Director
I'm sorry, what? Did Dune just direct itself to ten nominations?

1. Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog
3. Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza
4. Kenneth Branagh, Belfast
5. Steven Spielberg, West Side Story
6. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Drive My Car

4/5

Actress
Gaga, who has been campaigning hard for the nomination, has been snubbed! Stewart, who many were considering to be out of the rankings because of misses with BAFTA and SAG, makes it in.

1. Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos
2. Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter
4. Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye
6. Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers
7. Kristen Stewart, Spencer

3/5

Actor
Aaaaaand it's the SAG five.

1. Will Smith, King Richard
2. Benedict Cumberpatch, The Power of the Dog
3. Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth
4. Andrew Garfield, tick, tick... Boom!
6. Javier Bardem, Being the Ricardos

4/5

Supporting Actress
Belfast was nominated here, but with a different actress: the legendary Judi Dench, whom I suspected early on would make it in, but never had the guts to say.

1. Ariana DeBose, West Side Story
2. Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog
4. Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard
8. Jessie Buckley, The Lost Daughter
-. Judi Dench, Belfast

3/5

Supporting Actor

1. Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog
2. Troy Kotsur, CODA
3. Ciaran Hinds, Belfast
7. Jesse Plemons, The Power of the Dog
-. J.K. Simmons, Being the Ricardos

3/5

Adapted Screenplay

1. The Power of the Dog
2. CODA
4. Dune
5. Drive My Car
6. The Lost Daughter

4/5

Original Screenplay

1. Licorice Pizza
2. Belfast
3. King Richard
4. Don't Look Up
10. The Worst Person in the World

4/5

Editing

1. Dune
2. The Power of the Dog
6. Don't Look Up
7. tick, tick... Boom!
8. King Richard

2/5

Cinematography

1. Dune
2. The Power of the Dog
3. The Tragedy of Macbeth
4. West Side Story
6. Nightmare Alley

4/5

Production Design

1. Dune
2. Nightmare Alley
3. West Side Story
5. The Tragedy of Macbeth
-. The Power of the Dog

4/5

Costume Design
When House of Gucci missed here, I knew the film was in trouble and anticipated snubs.

1. Cruella
2. Dune
4. West Side Story
5. Nightmare Alley
7. Cyrano

4/5

Makeup and Hairstyling

1. The Eyes of Tammy Faye
2. Dune
3. Cruella
4. House of Gucci
9. Coming 2 America

4/5

Original Score

1. Dune
2. The Power of the Dog
3. Don't Look Up
4. Encanto
6. Parallel Mothers

4/5


Original Song

1. "No Time to Die", No Time to Die
2. "Dos Oruguitas", Encanto
3. "Be Alive", King Richard
7. "Down to Joy", Belfast
-. "Somehow You Do", Four Good Days

3/5

Sound

1. Dune
2. West Side Story
3. No Time to Die
5. Belfast
6. The Power of the Dog

4/5

Visual Effects

1. Dune
2. Spider-Man: No Way Home
3. Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings
6. No Time to Die
7. Free Guy

3/5

Animated Feature

1. Encanto
2. Flee
3. The Mitchells vs the Machines
4. Luca
5. Raya and the Last Dragon

5/5


International Feature

1. Drive My Car (Japan)
3. Flee (Denmark)
4. The Worst Person in the World (Norway)
5. The Hand of God (Italy)
8. Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom (Bhutan)

4/5

Documentary Feature

1. Flee
4. Ascension
5. Summer of Soul
8. Attica
10. Writing with Fire

3/5

Tallies: Films With More Than One Nomination

The Power of the Dog 12
Dune 10
West Side Story 7
Belfast 7
King Richard 6
Don't Look Up 4
Drive My Car 4
Nightmare Alley 4
Being the Ricardos 3
CODA 3
Encanto 3
Flee 3
Licorice Pizza 3
The Lost Daughter 3
The Tragedy of Macbeth 3
No Time to Die 3
Cruella 2
The Eyes of Tammy Faye 2
Parallel Mothers 2
tick, tick... Boom! 2
The Worst Person in the World 2

Oscar Nominations Predictions 2022

I haven't been following the Oscar race as closely this year, with one primary reason: I haven't been to the cinema since the pandemic started. Therefore, I haven't seen these films... but I'm still making my predictions! This is based on critical and industry support, along with following Film Twitter and awards blogs. It looks like it's a four-way race between Belfast, The Power of the Dog, Dune and West Side Story for Oscar glory, with these films leading the tally.

Best Picture

1. Belfast
2. The Power of the Dog
3. Dune
4. West Side Story
5. Licorice Pizza
6. CODA
7. King Richard
8. Don't Look Up
9. tick, tick... Boom!
10. Drive My Car
11. The Tragedy of Macbeth
12. Being the Ricardos
13. Nightmare Alley
14. House of Gucci
15. The Lost Daughter
16. Spider-Man: No Way Home
17. Cyrano
18. Spencer
19. Titane
20. Parallel Mothers

Director
I'm going with the DGA five, but this is a category ripe for surprises.

1. Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog
2. Denis Villeneuve, Dune
3. Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza
4. Kenneth Branagh, Belfast
5. Steven Spielberg, West Side Story
6. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Drive My Car
7. Julia Ducournau, Titane
8. Joel Coen, The Tragedy of Macbeth
9. Pedro Almodovar, Parallel Mothers
10. Adam McKay, Don't Look Up
Also in Contention: Reinaldo Marcus Green (King Richard), Guillermo del Toro (Nightmare Alley), Maggie Gyllenhaal (The Lost Daughter), Lin-Manuel Miranda (tick, tick... Boom!), Sian Heder (CODA)

Actress
Unlike last year, where the final five were widely predicted, this time there is a general consensus that the category is in flux. No one can agree on who's the front-runner, with Stewart missing out on some major award nominations when only a few months ago she was practically crowned Victor-in-Waiting. I think that Haim will make it in, but I'm not confident in this lineup at all. Expect there to be some surprises tomorrow morning.

1. Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos
2. Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter
3. Lady Gaga, House of Gucci
4. Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye
5. Alana Haim, Licorice Pizza
6. Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers
7. Kristen Stewart, Spencer
8. Jennifer Hudson, Respect
9. Rachel Zegler, West Side Story
10. Frances McDormand, The Tragedy of Macbeth

Actor
I'm just not convinced that Bardem will translate his SAG nomination to an Oscar one. Does that mean that DiCaprio will sneak into that fifth place? Or will Dinklage or Cage make it in, with their well-received performances in smaller films?

1. Will Smith, King Richard
2. Benedict Cumberpatch, The Power of the Dog
3. Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth
4. Andrew Garfield, tick, tick... Boom!
5. Nicolas Cage, Pig
6. Javier Bardem, Being the Ricardos
7. Leonardo DiCaprio, Don't Look Up
8. Peter Dinklage, Cyrano
9. Adam Driver, Annette
10. Hidetoshi Nishijima, Drive My Car

Supporting Actress
How wonderful would it be to see Moreno make it in, along with DeBose? I mean, to see Moreno, who won the Oscar for the 1961 West Side Story as Anita, watch rising star DeBose win for the same role? That's just the kind of delicious thing that the Academy lives for. Alas, I don't think Moreno will make it in, but this is a strong category that is just itching for a surprise.

1. Ariana DeBose, West Side Story
2. Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog
3. Caitriona Balfe, Belfast
4. Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard
5. Ruth Negga, Passing
6. Ann Dowd, Mass
7. Rita Moreno, West Side Story
8. Jessie Buckley, The Lost Daughter
9. Marlee Matlin, CODA
10. Cate Blanchett, Nightmare Alley

Supporting Actor
Please don't make me list Jared Leto for his "Mamma-Mia, I like-a-da-spicy-meatball" performance.

1. Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog
2. Troy Kotsur, CODA
3. Ciaran Hinds, Belfast
4. Bradley Cooper, Licorice Pizza
5. Mike Faist, West Side Story
6. Jared Leto, House of Gucci
7. Jesse Plemons, The Power of the Dog
8. Jamie Dornan, Belfast
9. Ben Affleck, The Tender Bar
10. Jason Isaacs, Mass

Adapted Screenplay
What a category! I think any of the top ten here have a chance to make it in. I'm not all that convinced with CODA, but the industry awards to far have been in its favour, so there we have it.

1. The Power of the Dog
2. CODA
3. West Side Story
4. Dune
5. Drive My Car
6. The Lost Daughter
7. The Tragedy of Macbeth
8. Nightmare Alley
9. Passing
10. tick, tick... Boom!

Original Screenplay
A remarkably weak category this year, with two films that were not all that well received sneaking into the top five positions, yet getting industry support: Don't Look Up and Being the Ricardos.

1. Licorice Pizza
2. Belfast
3. King Richard
4. Don't Look Up
5. Being the Ricardos
6. Parallel Mothers
7. Mass
8. A Hero
9. Pig
10. The Worst Person in the World

Editing
I suspect that Drive My Car may make it in, but with no precursor mentions, it's at the bottom of my top ten list. So why do I think this? Because the last few weeks have been a flurry of people talking about the film, and with its surprising pacing and gutsy decisions (with the title card 45 minutes into the film). Still, you can't go wrong with this top five.

1. Dune
2. The Power of the Dog
3. Belfast
4. Licorice Pizza
5. West Side Story
6. Don't Look Up
7. tick, tick... Boom!
8. King Richard
9. Summer of Soul
10. Drive My Car

Cinematography
I'm not seeing anyone mention Passing in their nominations, but it's another film that I think may surprise here.

1. Dune
2. The Power of the Dog
3. The Tragedy of Macbeth
4. West Side Story
5. Belfast
6. Nightmare Alley
7. The Green Knight
8. Spencer
9. tick, tick... Boom!
10. Passing

Production Design

1. Dune
2. Nightmare Alley
3. West Side Story
4. The French Dispatch
5. The Tragedy of Macbeth
6. Cyrano
7. Belfast
8. Spencer
9. Cruella
10. The Last Duel

Costume Design

1. Cruella
2. Dune
3. House of Gucci
4. West Side Story
5. Nightmare Alley
6. Spencer
7. Cyrano
8. The French Dispatch
9. Coming 2 America
10. Annette

Makeup and Hairstyling

1. The Eyes of Tammy Faye
2. Dune
3. Cruella
4. House of Gucci
5. West Side Story
6. Nightmare Alley
7. The Suicide Squad
8. Cyrano
9. Coming 2 America
10. No Time to Die

Original Score

1. Dune
2. The Power of the Dog
3. Don't Look Up
4. Encanto
5. The French Dispatch
6. Parallel Mothers
7. Spencer
8. No Time to Die
9. The Harder They Fall
10. The Green Knight

Original Song
No, "We Don't Talk About Bruno" won't be nominated. Why? Because it wasn't submitted for consideration, something that a lot of people have been calling a huge mistake for Disney.

1. "No Time to Die", No Time to Die
2. "Dos Oruguitas", Encanto
3. "Be Alive", King Richard
4. "Just Look Up", Don't Look Up
5. "Here I Am Singing My Way Home", Respect
6. "Guns Go Bang", The Harder They Fall
7. "Down to Joy", Belfast
8. "So May We Start", Annette
9. "Your Song Saved My Life", Sing 2
10. "Beyond the Shore", CODA

Sound

1. Dune
2. West Side Story
3. No Time to Die
4. tick, tick... Boom!
5. Belfast
6. The Power of the Dog
7. Spider-Man: No Way Home
8. A Quiet Place Part II
9. The Matrix Resurrections
10. Last Night in Soho

Visual Effects

1. Dune
2. Spider-Man: No Way Home
3. Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings
4. The Matrix Resurrections
5. Godzilla vs. Kong
6. No Time to Die
7. Free Guy
8. Eternals
9. Ghostbusters: Afterlife
10. Black Widow

Animated Feature
You'll notice something here: Flee is predicted in Animated, International and Documentary feature categories. Cool!

1. Encanto
2. Flee
3. The Mitchells vs the Machines
4. Luca
5. Raya and the Last Dragon
6. Belle
7. Sing 2
8. The Summit of the Gods
9. ??
10. ??


International Feature

1. Drive My Car (Japan)
2. A Hero (Iran)
3. Flee (Denmark)
4. The Worst Person in the World (Norway)
5. The Hand of God (Italy)
6. Compartment No 6 (Finland)
7. Hive (Kosovo)
8. Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom (Bhutan)
9. Lamb (Iceland)

Documentary Feature
There's always a surprise here, usually the snub of a supposed front-runner. I think it'll be Summer of Soul that will be snubbed here, but I'm still placing it in my top 5, because all industry support is suggesting it.

1. Flee
2. The Rescue
3. Procession
4. Ascension
5. Summer of Soul
6. Julia
7. The Velvet Underground
8. Attica
9. The First Wave
10. Writing with Fire

Tallies: Films With More Than One Nomination

Dune 11
West Side Story 11
The Power of the Dog 9
Belfast 8
Licorice Pizza 6
King Richard 5
Don't Look Up 4
CODA 3
Drive My Car 3
Encanto 3
Flee 3
House of Gucci 3
tick, tick... Boom! 3
The Tragedy of Macbeth 3
Being the Ricardos 2
Cruella 2
The Eyes of Tammy Faye 2
The French Dispatch 2
Nightmare Alley 2
No Time to Die 2

Oscar Nominations 2021 Reaction

79/103
If I did the math right, was this my worst year since I've been keeping track? I certainly seems so, dipping into the 70s, but then I remembered: one less category. Sound has been consolidated. So if I add three (let's say I got 3/5 to match each category to what I actually got), I get 82, which is about par.
So I think the story of this year is Judas and the Black Messiah, which has six nominations, including Best Picture and two in Supporting Actor -- four more than the two nominations I was expecting. Ma Rainey's Black Bottom didn't do quite as well as I was guessing, but I think in retrospect it makes sense. Interesting to see it miss out on Picture along with One Night in Miami, as both are stage adaptations, and although I haven't seen them yet, word is that both are, well, stagey.
Nomadland seems to be the frontrunner here now, as Trial missed out on a crucial Directing nomination: but as we have seen, this hasn't meant much the past few years. Green Book, anyone?

Best Picture
I've been over the past few years getting all of these correct. Not this year! Ma Rainey and One Night in Miami miss out.

1. Nomadland
2. The Trial of the Chicago 7
3. Minari
4. Promising Young Woman
5. Mank
8. Sound of Metal
11. Judas and the Black Messiah
13. The Father
6/8


Director
There were rumblings online that Vinterberg would be the surprise here, and they were correct. Happy to see two women become nominees. Sorry, Sorkin!

1. Chloé Zhao, Nomadland
2. David Fincher, Mank
4. Lee Isaac Chung, Minari
5. Emerald Fennell, Promising Young Woman
10. Thomas Vinterberg, Another Round
4/5

Actress

1. Viola Davis, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
2. Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman
3. Frances McDormand, Nomadland
4. Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday
5. Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman
5/5

Actor

1. Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
2. Anthony Hopkins, The Father
3. Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal
4. Gary Oldman, Mank
5. Steven Yuen, Minari
5/5

Supporting Actress

1. Olivia Colman, The Father
2. Yuh-Jung Youn, Minari
3. Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
5. Amanda Seyfried, Mank
6. Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy
4/5

Supporting Actor
No one, and as far as I can tell, no one expected Judas to get two nominations here. Apparently the film is without a lead?

1. Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah
2. Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7
3. Leslie Odom Jr., One Night in Miami
4. Paul Raci, Sound of Metal
-. Lakeith Stanfield, Judas and the Black Messiah
4/5

Original Screenplay
A strong category, but Mank missing out is the story here. Sorry, David Fincher's father.

1. The Trial of the Chicago 7
2. Promising Young Woman
3. Minari
5. Sound of Metal
7. Judas and the Black Messiah
4/5

Adapted Screenplay
Okay, I loved hearing Borat Subsequent Moviefilm's full title and writing team being read aloud. Hilarious.

1. Nomadland
2. One Night in Miami
3. The Father
7. Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
9. The White Tiger
3/5


Editing
Mank didn't do as well as I thought it would, and with it missing here and in Original Screenplay.

1. The Trial of the Chicago 7
2. Nomadland
4. Sound of Metal
5. Promising Young Woman
6. The Father
4/5

Cinematography
I was right: there are surprises here. Minari misses out, and Judas continues its streak.

1. Nomadland
2. Mank
3. News of the World
6. The Trial of the Chicago 7
7. Judas and the Black Messiah
3/5

Production Design
Certainly didn't see The Father walking in here.

1. Mank
2. Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
3. News of the World
5. Tenet
-. The Father
4/5

Costume Design
Didn't expect Pinocchio to be double-nominated this year.

1. Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
2. Mank
3. Emma.
4. Mulan
-. Pinocchio
4/5

Makeup and Hairstyling
I really didn't want to see Hillbilly Elegy to be nominated here, but it was. It might win, too.

1. Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
2. Mank
3. Hillbilly Elegy
5. Emma.
6. Pinocchio
4/5

Original Score
NIN are double nominees. Wow!

1. Soul
2. Mank
3. Minari
4. News of the World
7. Da 5 Bloods
4/5

Original Song
It's rare that I get more than three here, let alone all five nominees.

1. "Speak Now", One Night in Miami
2. "Io Si (Seen)", The Life Ahead
3. "Fight for You", Judas and the Black Messiah
4. "Hear My Voice", The Trial of the Chicago 7
5. "Husavik", Eurovision Song Contest
5/5

Sound
Formerly Sound Mixing and Sound (Effects) Editing. For my score, assume this is doubled.

1. Sound of Metal
2. Mank
3. Soul
6. News of the World
7. Greyhound
3/5


Visual Effects
I found this to be a rather strange line-up, given the two surprises. I'm not even sure if I had heard of The One and Only Ivan before I started researching possible nominees.

1. Tenet
2. The Midnight Sky
3. Mulan
7. The One and Only Ivan
9. Love and Monsters
3/5

Animated Feature
I correctly predicted the selected five, foreseeing that the branch wouldn't nominate The Croods sequel.

1. Soul
2. Wolfwalkers
3. Onward
4. Over the Moon
5. Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon


International Feature
Two surprises!

1. Another Round (Denmark)
2. Quo Vadis, Aida? (Bosnia and Herzegovina)
3. Collective (Romania)
-. Better Days (Hong Kong)
-. The Man Who Sold His Skin
3/5

Documentary Feature
My worst category this year. Mole Agent surprises out of nowhere, and two well-received films that were expected to show up didn't. Always a tough call, this category is.

1. Time
2. Collective
6. Crip Camp
8. My Octopus Teacher
-. The Mole Agent
2/5

TALLIES
Films With More Than One Nomination
Nominations (Predicted Nominations)
Mank - 10 (13)
Judas and the Black Messiah - 6 (2)
Minari - 6 (7)
Nomadland - 6 (6)
Sound of Metal - 6 (6)
The Father - 6 (3)
The Trial of the Chicago 7 - 6 (6)
Ma Rainey's Black Bottom - 5 (8)
Promising Young Woman - 5 (5)
News of the World - 4 (5)
One Night in Miami - 3 (4)
Soul- 3 (4)
Tenet - 2 (4)
Mulan - 2 (3)
Another Round - 2 (1)
Borat Subsequent Moviefilm - 2 (1)
Collective - 2 (2)
Emma. - 2 (2)
Hillbilly Elegy - 2 (0)
Pinocchio - 2 (0)
Da 5  Bloods - 1 (2)

Oscar Nominations Predictions 2021

What a bizarre year 2020 was. Let's not dwell on the misery that it was, and let's divert our attention to the late Oscar season.

Mank seems to be poised to be the leader of this year's nominations --I'm looking at 13 nods-- but I don't see it translating well to Oscar night. The frontrunners in that respect are Nomadland and The Trial of the Chicago 7. Consensus seems to be that Trial will pick up Picture and Nomadland Directing, resulting in a "split year". In years past the general trick was to never predict Picture/Directing splits, as they were very difficult to see coming -- but as we have seen since Argo, these have become more common.

But the main story here is the diversity of nominees: we are suspecting that THREE of the Directing nominations could be women (Zhao, Fennell and King), which would also make (with Chung's Minari) THREE non-white directors. Considering that most years have five white men as the nominees, this is astounding!

Looking at the tallies, I see there are two films that I'm surprised to see racking up the potential nominations: Ma Rainey's Black Bottom (8 nods) and Sound of Metal (6 nods). Who woulda thunk it? Certainly not me a year ago.

Best Picture

1. Nomadland
2. The Trial of the Chicago 7
3. Minari
4. Promising Young Woman
5. Mank
6. One Night in Miami
7. Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
8. Sound of Metal
9. Da 5 Bloods
10. Soul
11. Judas and the Black Messiah
12. News of the World
13. The Father
14. Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
15. First Cow
16. The Mauritanian
17. Tenet
18. Pieces of a Woman
19. Hillbilly Elegy
20. Another Round

Director
How exciting would it be to have THREE women nominated? I think King might sneak in, but at whose expense? Could Sorkin miss? Or even *gasp* Fincher? I don't think anyone is locked here other than Zhao, including Fennell.

1. Chloé Zhao, Nomadland
2. David Fincher, Mank
3. Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7
4. Lee Isaac Chung, Minari
5. Emerald Fennell, Promising Young Woman
6. Regina King, One Night in Miami
7. Spike Lee, Da 5 Bloods
8. Darius Marder, Sound of Metal
9. Florian Zeller, The Father
10. Thomas Vinterberg, Another Round
Also in Contention: Paul Greengrass (News of the World) Shaka King (Judas and the Black Messiah), Kelly Reichardt (First Cow), George C. Wolfe (Ma Rainey's Black Bottom)

Actress
The top five here seem to be the general consensus: it's unlikely there will be a surprise here.

1. Viola Davis, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
2. Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman
3. Frances McDormand, Nomadland
4. Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday
5. Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman
6. Sophia Loren, The Life Ahead
7. Amy Adams, Hillbilly Elegy
8. Zendaya, Malcolm and Marie
9. Michelle Pfeiffer, French Exit
10. Yeri Han, Minari

Actor
I have a suspicion that Mikkelsen will make his way in, but again, at whose expense? Yuen?

1. Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
2. Anthony Hopkins, The Father
3. Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal
4. Gary Oldman, Mank
5. Steven Yuen, Minari
6. Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods
7. Mads Mikkelsen, Another Round
8. Kingsley Ben-Adir, One Night in Miami
9. Tom Hanks, News of the World
10. LaKeith Stanfield, Judas and the Black Messiah

Supporting Actress
This is a strange category: everyone's saying Close is in, but I really don't think she survived the critical bashing of the film. Foster won the Globe, meaning that she's likely nominated, and Bakalova has been doing quite well I think. Seyfried seems to be the weak one here, but I somehow have a feeling that she's in.

1. Olivia Colman, The Father
2. Yuh-Jung Youn, Minari
3. Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
4. Jodie Foster, The Mauritanian
5. Amanda Seyfried, Mank
6. Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy
7. Ellen Burstyn, Pieces of a Woman
8. Helena Zengel, News of the World
9. Saoirse Ronan, Ammonite
10. Dominque Fishback, Judas and the Black Messiah

Supporting Actor
Will Trial of the Chicago 7 be multi-nominated here? If so, with who?

1. Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah
2. Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7
3. Leslie Odom Jr., One Night in Miami
4. Paul Raci, Sound of Metal
5. Chadwick Boseman, Da 5 Bloods
6. Mark Rylance, The Trial of the Chicago 7
7. Jared Leto, The Little Things
8. Alan Kim, Minari
9. Bill Murray, On the Rocks
10. Yahya Abdul-Mateen II, The Trial of the Chicago 7

Original Screenplay
A rather strong category this year. I can see any of the top 8 getting in.

1. The Trial of the Chicago 7
2. Promising Young Woman
3. Minari
4. Mank
5. Sound of Metal
6. Soul
7. Judas and the Black Messiah
8. Da 5 Bloods
9. On the Rocks
10. Never Rarely Always Sometimes

Adapted Screenplay

1. Nomadland
2. One Night in Miami
3. The Father
4. News of the World
5. Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
6. I'm Thinking of Ending Things
7. Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
8. First Cow
9. The White Tiger
10. The Mauritanian

Editing

1. The Trial of the Chicago 7
2. Nomadland
3. Mank
4. Sound of Metal
5. Promising Young Woman
6. The Father
7. Minari
8. Tenet
9. News of the World
10. Da 5 Bloods

Cinematography
Tenet wasn't nominated by the Guild, but Trial was -- I still don't think that Trial's rather generic cinematography is deserving, but it somehow snuck in. Let's see if there's a surprise: I feel that this category is ripe for one.

1. Nomadland
2. Mank
3. News of the World
4. Minari
5. Tenet
6. The Trial of the Chicago 7
7. Judas and the Black Messiah
8. Da 5 Bloods
9. Cherry
10. Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

Production Design

1. Mank
2. Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
3. News of the World
4. Mulan
5. Tenet
6. Emma.
7. The Midnight Sky
8. The Trial of the Chicago 7
9. Personal History of David Copperfield
10. Rebecca

Costume Design

1. Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
2. Mank
3. Emma.
4. Mulan
5. News of the World
6. The United States vs. Billie Holiday
7. Personal History of David Copperfield
8. Ammonite
9. Promising Young Woman
10. Birds of Prey

Makeup and Hairstyling
I really don't want to see Hillbilly Elegy to be nominated here, but I suspect it will.
1. Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
2. Mank
3. Hillbilly Elegy
4. Birds of Prey
5. Emma.
6. Pinocchio
7. Jingle Jangle: A Christmas Journey
8. One Night in Miami
9. The Glorias
10. The Little Things

Original Score

1. Soul
2. Mank
3. Minari
4. News of the World
5. The Midnight Sky
6. Tenet
7. Da 5 Bloods
8. The Trial of the Chicago 7
9. The Little Things
10. Mulan

Original Song

1. "Speak Now", One Night in Miami
2. "Io Si (The Life Ahead)", Seen
3. "Fight for You", Judas and the Black Messiah
4. "Hear My Voice", The Trial of the Chicago 7
5. "Husavik", Eurovision Song Contest
6. "Turntables", All In: The Fight for Democracy
7. "Wuhan Flu", Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
8. "Rain Song", Minari
9. "Green", Sound of Metal
10. "Loyal Brave True", Mulan

Sound

1. Sound of Metal
2. Mank
3. Soul
4. Tenet
5. Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
6. News of the World
7. Greyhound
8. Nomadland
9. The Midnight Sky
10. The Trial of the Chicago 7

Visual Effects

1. Tenet
2. The Midnight Sky
3. Mulan
4. Mank
5. Welcome to Chechnya
6. Birds of Prey
7. The One and Only Ivan
8. Soul
9. Love and Monsters
10. Bloodshot

Animated Feature

1. Soul
2. Wolfwalkers
3. Onward
4. Over the Moon
5. Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon
6. The Croods: A New Age
7. The Willoughbys
8. Earwig and the Witch
9. Trolls World Tour
10. No. 7 Cherry Lane


International Feature
I think that A Sun from Taiwan, which has recently been getting some notice by critics and audiences, will be the surprise here.

1. Another Round (Denmark)
2. Quo Vadis, Aida? (Bosnia and Herzegovina)
3. Collective (Romania)
4. La Llorona (Guatemala)
5. Two of Us (France)
6. Dear Comrades! (Russia)
7. A Sun (Taiwan)
8. Night of the Kings (Cote d'Ivoire)
9. I'm No Longer Here (Mexico)

Documentary Feature

1. Time
2. Collective
3. Welcome to Chechnya
4. Dick Johnson is Dead
5. Boys State
6. Crip Camp
7. All In: The Fight for Democracy
8. My Octopus Teacher
9. The Truffle Hunters
10. 76 Days

TALLIES
Films With More Than One Nomination
Mank - 13
Ma Rainey's Black Bottom - 8
Minari - 7
Nomadland - 6
Sound of Metal - 6
The Trial of the Chicago 7 - 6
News of the World - 5
Promising Young Woman - 5
One Night in Miami - 4
Soul- 4
Tenet - 4
The Father - 3
Mulan - 3
Da 5  Bloods - 2
Emma. - 2
Judas and the Black Messiah - 2
The Midnight Sky - 2
Welcome to Chechnya - 2

Oscar Predictions 2017

This should be a cakewalk for La La Land this year, as I'm expecting it to sweep the categories. Picture, Director and Actress are almost givens, as is Score, Song and Sound Mixing. In Original Screenplay, it's a toss-up between the film and Lonergan's Manchester by the Sea; will the Academy want to award this indie darling here, seeing that Denzel Washington looks to beat the previously anointed Casey Affleck? In the craft categories, Cinematography is La La Land's best bet, with Hacksaw Ridge giving it competition for Editing. In Production Design, I'm still expecting it to win despite the film's rather modest design --but remember, it's Best design, not Most design, and I'm quite the cheerleader for the film. But if voters want to award something flashier, maybe it'll be Fantastic Beasts, or even Arrival. Speaking of a category in which something flashier usually wins, I'm expecting La La Land to lose in the category of Costume Design, bowing out to Jackie. So that leaves Sound Editing... and let's be honest, it's somewhat miraculous it was even nominated in this category, so I'm expecting Hacksaw Ridge to pick up this award.

So what does that leave us with? Viola Davis has been sweeping the season with Fences, and for good reason: she's excellent in it, and she's overdue for an award after losing Best Actress to Meryl Streep a few years ago. Supporting Actor is a curious category, as many are expecting Mahershala Ali to pick up the award for Moonlight --but at the BAFTAs and the Globes, he lost to Dev Patel and (the not nominated) Aaron Taylor-Johnson. If there's a snub-surprise on Sunday night, I'm expecting it to be here for Patel. Still, I'm predicting Ali to get one of Moonlight's two awards, the other one being Adapted Screenplay. But if there's an award that the beautiful Moonlight I feel doesn't deserve, it's for its screenplay. Arrival would be a better choice, and will the Academy agree with me? Probably not. (For the record, Moonlight is a masterpiece of editing, cinematography and acting, but I think its screenplay is a bit... well, thin.) But I digress.

Makeup and Hairstyling should go to Star Trek Beyond, the second win in the category for the rebooted series. Visual effects will probably go The Jungle Book, but I feel that this is a category ripe for a surprise this year. For the three other feature categories, I'm going for Zootopia, OJ: Made in America and not Toni Erdmann, but The Salesman. Just a hunch that a lot of other predictors are also making, although don't be surprised if A Man Called Ove picks it up. (Erdmann is probably just too weird for the voters in this category.) And that leaves the shorts. Always a crapshoot. So let's go with The White Helmets over Joe's Violin in Doc Short, because, hey, why not. Animated Short is widely expected to go for Piper, and I agree. And finally, Live Action Short has prognosticators all over the place, as it usually does, but the lead is probably for Ennemis Interieurs. So let's go with that.

So that makes me believe that La La Land will win the night with 10 awards. Wow!

Best Picture
Will Win: La La Land
If Hell Freezes Over: Moonlight

Director
Will Win: Damien Chazelle, La La Land
If Hell Freezes Over: Barry Jenkins, Moonlight

Actress
Will Win: Emma Stone, La La Land
Might Win: Isabelle Huppert, Elle

Actor
Will Win: Denzel Washington, Fences
Might Win: Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea

Supporting Actress
Will Win: Viola Davis, Fences
Shocker: Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea

Supporting Actor
Will Win: Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
Might Win: Dev Patel, Lion

Original Screenplay
Will Win: La La Land
Might Win: Manchester by the Sea

Adapted Screenplay
Will Win: Moonlight
Might Win: Arrival

Editing
Will Win: La La Land
Might Win: Hacksaw Ridge

Cinematography
Will Win: La La Land
Might Win: Arrival

Production Design
Will Win: La La Land
Might Win: Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them

Costume Design
Will Win: Jackie
Might Win: La La Land

Makeup and Hairstyling
Will Win: Star Trek Beyond
Might Win: A Man Called Ove

Original Score
Will Win: La La Land
If Hell Freezes Over: Moonlight

Original Song
Will Win: "City of Stars", La La Land
Might Win: "Audition (The Fools Who Dream)", La La Land

Sound Mixing
Will Win: La La Land
Might Win: Hacksaw Ridge
Dark Horse: Arrival

Sound Editing
Will Win: Hacksaw Ridge
Might Win: Arrival
If There Really is a Sweep Goin' On: La La Land

Visual Effects
Will Win: The Jungle Book
Might Win: Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

Animated Feature
Will Win: Zootopia
Might Win: Kubo and the Two Strings

Foreign Language Feature
Will Win: The Salesman
Might Win: A Man Called Ove

Documentary Feature
Will Win: OJ: Made in America
Might Win: 13th

Animated Short
Will Win: Piper
Might Win: Pearl

Live Action Short
Will Win: Ennemis Interieurs
Might Win: Timecode
But Really, Who Knows?: La Femme et le TGV

Documentary Short
Will Win: The White Helmets
Might Win: Joe's Violin

Oscar Nomination Reaction: Snub-O-Rama

WOW. What else can I say that others haven't been? Major snubs all around, and a jolly good morning.

82/107

BEST PICTURE
1. Argo
2. Lincoln
3. Zero Dark Thirty
4. Les Misérables
5. Silver Linings Playbook
6. Life of Pi
7. Django Unchained
8. Amour
9. Beasts of the Southern Wild
9/9

DIRECTOR
The most bizarre lineup since... well, any ideas? DGA only matched up 2/5 this year, and there were audible gasps from the press when they realized who was missing: Affleck, Bigelow and Hooper.
3. Steven Spielberg, Lincoln (DGA, Globes, CC, Chicago)
4. Ang Lee, Life of Pi (DGA, Globes, BAFTA, CC)
6. Michael Haneke, Amour (BAFTA, NFSC Winner)
8. David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook (CC)
11. Benh Zeitlin, Beasts of the Southern Wild (Chicago)
2/5

ACTRESS
1. Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook (LAFC, SAG, Globes, BAFTA, CC, NSFC, Chicago)
2. Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty (NBR, SAG, Globes, BAFTA, CC, NSFC, Chicago)
3. Emmanuelle Riva, Amour (LAFC, BAFTA, CC, NFSC Winner, Chicago, Boston)
5. Naomi Watts, The Impossible (SAG, Globes, CC, Chicago)
7. Quvenzhané Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild (CC, Chicago)
4/5

ACTOR
The Hawkes miss is a bit surprising, but I must admit that I felt it in my gut coming. I was also expecting Hunt to miss, too, but she made it in.
1. Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln (NYFCC, Globes, SAG, BAFTA, CC, NFSC Winner, Chicago, Boston)
2. Hugh Jackman, Les Misérables (Globes, SAG, BAFTA, CC)
3. Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook (NBR, Globes, SAG, BAFTA, CC) +1
5. Joaquin Phoenix, The Master (LAFC, Globes, BAFTA, CC, NSFC, Chicago)
6. Denzel Washington, Flight (Globes, SAG, CC, Chicago)
4/5

SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Jacki Weaver is the surprise here, and makes Silver Linings Playbook the first movie since Reds to be nominated in all four acting categories. A sign of general support for the film?
1. Anne Hathaway, Les Misérables (SAG, Globes, BAFTA, CC, NSFC, Chicago)
2. Sally Field, Lincoln (SAG, NYFCC, Globes, BAFTA, CC, NSFC, Chicago, Boston)
3. Helen Hunt, The Sessions (SAG, Globes, BAFTA, CC, Chicago)
5. Amy Adams, The Master (LAFC, Globes, BAFTA, CC, NSFC Winner, Chicago)
11. Jacki Weaver, Silver Linings Playbook
4/5

SUPPORTING ACTOR
1. Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master (SAG, Globes, CC, NSFC, Chicago)
2. Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln (SAG, Globes, CC, NSFC, Chicago)
3. Alan Arkin, Argo (SAG, Globes, CC)
5. Robert DeNiro, Silver Linings Playbook (SAG, CC)
6. Christoph Waltz, Django Unchained (Globes, Boston)
4/5

WRITING, ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
They really didn't like The Master, eh?
1. Mark Boal, Zero Dark Thirty (Globes, WGA, BAFTA, CC, Chicago)
3. Quentin Tarantino, Django Unchained (Globes, BAFTA, CC, Chicago)
4. Wes Anderson & Roman Coppola, Moonrise Kingdom (WGA, BAFTA, CC, Chicago, Boston)
5. Michael Haneke, Amour (BAFTA)
7. John Gatins, Flight (WGA, CC)
4/5

WRITING, ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
1. Tony Kushner, Lincoln (NYFCC, Globes, WGA, BAFTA, CC, NSFC Winner, Chicago, Boston)
2. David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook (Globes, WGA, BAFTA, CC, NSFC, Chicago)
3. Chris Terrio, Argo (LAFC, Globes, WGA, BAFTA, CC, Chicago)
4. David Magee, Life of Pi (WGA, BAFTA, CC)
6. Benh Zeitlin & Lucy Alibar, Beasts of the Southern Wild (BAFTA)
4/5

CINEMATOGRAPHY
1. Roger Deakins, Skyfall (ASC, BAFTA, LAFC, CC, NSFC, Chicago)
2. Cloudio Miranda, Life of Pi (ASC, BAFTA, CC, Chicago, Boston)
3. Janusz Kaminski, Lincoln (ASC, BAFTA, CC, Chicago)
5. Seamus McGarvey, Anna Karenina (ASC, BAFTA)
8. Robert Richardson, Django Unchained
4/5

FILM EDITING
1. William Goldenberg & Dylan Tichenor, Zero Dark Thirty (LAFC, BAFTA, CC, Chicago, Boston)
2. William Goldenberg, Argo (BAFTA, CC, Chicago, Boston)
3. Tim Squyers, Life of Pi (BAFTA, CC)
5. Michael Kahn, Lincoln (CC)
7. Jay Cassidy, Silver Linings Playbook
4/5


PRODUCTION DESIGN
1. Anna Karenina (AGA Period, BAFTA, CC, Chicago)
2. Lincoln (AGA Period, BAFTA, CC, Chicago)
3. Les Misérables (AGA Period, BAFTA, CC, Chicago)
4. Life of Pi (AGA Fantasy, BAFTA, CC)
7. The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey (AGA Fantasy, CC)
4/5

COSTUME DESIGN
Guess I shouldn't have underestimated Atwood.
1. Anna Karenina (BAFTA, CC)
2. Les Misérables (BAFTA, CC)
3. Lincoln (BAFTA, CC)
10. Snow White and the Huntsman (BAFTA)
11. Mirror Mirror
3/5

MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
1. The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey (CC, BAFTA)
3. Les Misérables (CC, BAFTA)
5. Hitchcock (BAFTA)
2/3

ORIGINAL SCORE
1. Dario Marianelli, Anna Karenina (Globes, BAFTA)
2. Mychael Danna, Life of Pi (Globes, BAFTA, CC)
3. John Williams, Lincoln (Globes, BAFTA, CC)
4. Thomas Newman, Skyfall (BAFTA)
5. Alexandre Desplat, Argo (Globes, BAFTA, CC, Chicago)
5/5
I got perfect here? Wow! Sweet!

ORIGINAL SONG
1. "Skyfall" from Skyfall
2. "Suddenly" from Les Misérables
From Life of Pi: "Pi's Lullaby"
3/5
Not quite sure how to do my math here, as I only numbered two of them -- but honestly? If I did, Life of Pi's lullaby would have been by number 3. Honestly. Really! So I'm giving myself 3/5. Ha!

SOUND EDITING
1. Skyfall
3. Django Unchained
4. Zero Dark Thirty
7. Life of Pi -1
Other Possibilities: Argo
3/5

SOUND MIXING
1. Les Misérables (CAS, BAFTA)
2. Skyfall (CAS, BAFTA)
5. Lincoln (CAS) +3
7. Life of Pi (BAFTA) +3
NEW: Argo
3/5
Life of Pi showed its muscle by sneaking into both categories. But why oh why didn't more of us predict Argo in these categories? Best Picture frontrunner, action film...? Come on, guys. It's simple math.

VISUAL EFFECTS
1. Life of Pi (VES, BAFTA, CC)
2. The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey (VES, BAFTA, CC)
3. The Avengers (VES, BAFTA, CC)
4. Prometheus (VES, BAFTA)
10. Snow White and the Huntsman
4/5
Definitely didn't expect Snow White to do so well today.

ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
1. Brave (Globes, PGA, BAFTA, Chicago)
2. Wreck-It Ralph (Globes, PGA, CC, Chicago)
3. Frankenweenie (Globes, PGA, BAFTA, CC, Chicago, Boston)
4. ParaNorman (PGA, CC, BAFTA, Chicago, Boston)
8. The Pirates! Band of Misfits
4/5
The appearance of The Pirates! pleasantly surprised me, but certainly didn't shock: this branch loves Aardman Animations.

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
1. Searching for Sugar Man (BAFTA, CC, NSFC, Chicago)
2. How to Survive a Plague (Boston)
3. The Gatekeepers (LAFCA, NSFC Winner)
5. 5 Broken Cameras
13. The Invisible War (Chicago)
4/5
Quite pleased with my performance here, considering how many contenders were closely duking it out.

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
2. Amour, Austria (Globes, NYFCC, LAFC Winner, BAFTA Chicago, Boston)
3. A Royal Affair, Denmark (Globes)
4. War Witch, Canada
5. Kon-Tiki, Norway
7. No, Chile

4/5
The Intouchables snub is quite significant, as the supposed frontrunner and Weinstein workhorse. Some were even guessing 'surprise' Best Picture and Screenplay nominations. Oops! I correctly predicted both War Witch and Kon-Tiki getting in.