2026 Oscar Predictions

Here are my annual predictions for the Academy Awards. I predict that One Battle After Another will win 6 Oscars: Best Picture, Director, Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, and Editing. Close behind is Sinners, with Actor, Original Screenplay, Casting, and Original Score. Frankenstein will do well in the crafts, with Costume Design, Makeup and Hairstyling, and Production Design wins. But there is a story here, one of ebbs and flows. One Battle After Another has swept the season, but with a pesky vampire film close behind it, looking for fresh blood. 

Best Picture

Once upon a time, Sinners was the clear frontrunner... then One Battle After Another debuted, and it was all over for Sinners. Who could stand up to the severely overdue Paul Thomas Anderson's masterful film? Well, the last month has shown us that Sinners may indeed be the one to overthrow PTA's apparent crowning-in-waiting. The buzz has been behind Coogler's film ever since it destroyed the record for the most nominations in a year, with 16 nods. One Battle has been winning, yes, but I feel it in the air that Sinners is duking it out with PTA, and just may win after all. Of course, that's not counting in TIFF People's Choice and Golden Globe winner Hamnet, which I suspect will do very well on the ranked ballots. I'm not holding my breath, but I have an inkling that Hamnet will be the surprise winner of Best Picture. This is down to the wire, people. After the show, will I be saying "Oh, it was One Battle After Another sweeping the season, after all. How could I have doubted that?" Or will I be going: "I knew it! Sinners pulled the carpet out of PTA's feet!" Or, will I be smacking myself: "I had a feeling it was going to be Hamnet! Why didn't I spring for that?" This is an exciting race, and it's what I look for every season: doubt. Surprises. Shocking winners. I tend to try and predict these surprises, because I overthink things and let this doubt creep in. But the smart money here? One Battle After Another.

Will Win: One Battle After Another
Could Win: Sinners
Dark Horse: Hamnet 

Director

PTA is in the lead, as he has been all season, but I think it's become more precarious over time. If Best Picture goes to Sinners, but Coogler misses here, it'll be the third time a Black-directed film wins Picture, but loses out on Directing. That's not a good look, but will voters be aware of this fact? I dunno. I do still think that PTA will take the Oscar, though.

Will Win: Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another
Could Win: Ryan Coogler, Sinners
Dark Horse: Chloé Zhao, Hamnet 

Actress

Buckley is in an easy lead here. I don't even know who would be her competition.

Will Win: Jessie Buckley, Hamnet
If Hell Freezes Over: Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I'd Kick You 

Actor

Now here's a race, and it's tooth and nail. Chalamet has been the supposed safe winner for most of the season, until he lost the BAFTA (to a non-Oscar nominated Robert Aramayo) and the Actor Award to Jordan. Sinners has been making a late-season surge in hype, and I'm really thinking--as with many other Oscar watchers--that Chalamet has lost his lead. It doesn't help he's been putting his foot in his mouth lately. What a year this has been for Jordan: he started off as the frontrunner, then lost his footing, made it into the nominee list by the slimmest of margins (I do think he was fifth), but then... Sinners has become the talk of the town again with its nominations haul. Wow. But that's not to say that any of the other nominees have no shot: I think this is a category in major flux, and I would honestly not be surprised if any of them take it.

Will Win: Michael B. Jordan, Sinners
Could Win: Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme
Dark Horse: Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another

Supporting Actress

The chaos continues here with probably the most competitive category of the evening. Taylor was in the lead for most of the season, with an early Globes win, but Madigan has always been part of the conversation: it's a beloved performance from a well-liked actress, yet the sole nominee for her film. Horror films also never do that well with the Academy, so they say... but is this still true? I mean, this year alone we have Frankenstein and Sinners racking up the wins and nominations. Mosaku has won the BAFTA and a number of critic awards, and I think she--like Jordan--can take advantage of Sinners' late season surge. I so think, however, that Madigan's now-iconic performance will take the win over Taylor and Mosaku; but it's anyone's guess who will actually win from these three. Will we see a split, and allow Lilleaas to swoop in? Nah. Probably not.

Will Win: Amy Madigan, Weapons
Could Win: Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners
Very Close Behind: Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another

Supporting Actor

Now, Penn is supposedly the clear winner here after his late season domination; but it just doesn't feel right, y'know? Three-time winner, Sean Penn? Yes, his performance dominated the film, and it's pretty weird, too: you can't take your eyes off of him. His co-star Del Toro did very well with the critics' awards, but his buzz seems to have fallen in the latter half of the race. Skarsgård has routinely been touted as the frontrunner, even though he does not have the stats to back this assertion. Time and time again, he has lost: he wasn't even nominated for the Actor Award. I don't think Skarsgård has this. But then, who does? Yes, Penn is the statistical most likely, so if you're trying for your Oscar pool, go with him. But I have a sneaking suspicion that it's gonna be Lindo. I have nothing to back me up here, other than Sinners surging lately, and the fact that he's well-liked by the community and has never been nominated before.

Most Likely: Sean Penn, One Battle After Another
Suspicion!: Delroy Lindo, Sinners
Could Win: Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value

Adapted Screenplay

Easy peasy, lemon squeezy: if PTA loses Director after all, he will still be an Oscar winner for his writing. 

Will Win: One Battle After Another
Not Likely: Hamnet

Original Screenplay

And another easy one: Coogler will also be a winner, even if he doesn't "steal" the Oscar for directing away from PTA.

Will Win: Sinners
Very Dark Horse: Sentimental Value

Casting

Sinners has been widely considered the frontrunner of this all season, and I do think that it is the likely winner. But what about the awesome cast of One Battle? Or the use of non-actors in The Secret Agent and Marty Supreme? Or the jackpot that was the children in Hamnet? I do think any of these films would be a worthy winner for the first-ever Casting Oscar.

Will Win: Sinners 
Could Win: One Battle After Another
I Want to Win: The Secret Agent

Cinematography

Battle and Sinners are indeed battling it out, once again, for an award. All season long, it's been Sinners out ahead, but with a string of wins lately, One Battle After Another, with its innovative cinematography, has really given Sinners a run for its money. Which one will come out ahead? It's hard to say... and that's not counting Train Dreams, with its beautiful work. Don't be surprised if that one wins, after all.

Will Win: One Battle After Another
Could Win: Sinners
Dark Horse: Train Dreams

Editing

Observers have been saying for most of the race that this is F1's to lose, but that has really turned around in the last month, with One Battle sweeping. 

Will Win: One Battle After Another
Could Win: F1

Costume Design

Even people who dislike the film have been saying all season long that Frankenstein is the deserving winner here. 

Will Win: Frankenstein
Could Win: Sinners

Production Design

Same thing. It's hard to deny Frankenstein's craft. 

Will Win: Frankenstein
Could Win: Sinners

Makeup & Hairstyling

And, once again... Such an interesting mix of nominees, though!

Will Win: Frankenstein
Could Win: Sinners

Sound

Once F1 snagged that Best Picture nomination, it was almost a guaranteed win here... but Sinners is on its tail. 

Will Win: F1
Could Win:Sinners

Original Score

An easy win for Sinners, but Greenwood would also be a worthy (first-time!) winner. 

Will Win: Sinners
Could Win: One Battle After Another

Original Song

I've been reading that people are actually finally getting sick of that KPop Demon Hunters song, and that this may actually slip out of its hands. Probably not, though.

Will Win: "Golden", KPop Demon Hunters
Could Win: "I Lied to You", Sinners
Please, No: "Dear Me", Diane Warren: Relentless

Visual Effects

An easy win here, but like Original Song, are voters getting tired of Avatar?

Will Win: Avatar: Fire and Ash
Could Win: F1

International Feature

Now, here we have a bit of a confusing category. It would seem that Sentimental Value would be the 'obvious' choice, given its slew of nominations... but The Secret Agent is also in key categories of Picture, Actor, and Casting. It comes down to these two, but It Was Just an Accident is hot on their tracks. I don't see Sirat or The Voice of Hind Rajab making an impact, but with any of these other three, you could make a solid case. Sentimental Value was snubbed at the Actor Awards, but is clearly very well liked by the Academy; The Secret Agent has the international 'Brazilian factor' going on (see last year's winner I'm Still Here); It Was Just an Accident has the obvious political ramifications of an Iranian filmmaker going against the regime. The general consensus is Sentimental Value, but I really do think that The Secret Agent is going to put up a vicious fight.

Will Win: Sentimental Value
Could Win: The Secret Agent
Dark Horse: It Was Just an Accident   

Animated Feature

This is very clearly going KPop Demon Hunters, despite the 'anonymous ballots' suggesting some fatigue going on. There is just no clear alternative. 

Will Win: KPop Demon Hunters
Could Win: Zootopia 2

Documentary Feature

Smart money is on The Perfect Neighbor, with the alternate being Mr. Nobody Against Putin. I don't see anything else winning, but then again, what do I know? This category, along with the shorts, often pops up surprises for us.

Will Win: The Perfect Neighbor
Could Win: Mr. Nobody Against Putin

Animated Short

This appears to be a battle between Butterfly and The Girl Who Cried Pearls, with Butterfly coming out on top.

Will Win: Butterfly
Could Win: The Girl Who Cried Pearls

Documentary Short 

Subtext is everything in All the Empty Rooms, and what subtext! This film screams "Oscar winner" to me, especially given voters' tendencies to reward the politics of the short docs, rather than the quality of the film itself. (I've seen more than a few people critique All the Empty Rooms as being somewhat of a bland film, despite the emotional resonance.) But what could go against it? Maybe Armed With Only a Camera?

Will Win: All the Empty Rooms
Could Win: Armed With Only a Camera

Live Action Short

I've seen all of these, and I'm struggling with my desire of who I want to win with whom I think will win. My favourite was very clearly Two People Exchanging Saliva, and I feel that it's by far and away the most accomplished film here... but it's also patently bizarre and even confrontational with its eccentricities. Does that mean that the adorable, but lightweight, A Friend of Dorothy has a better chance, especially given that it's been campaigned fairly hard and will appeal to voters' liberal politics? I think it might. The Singers is the other short that stands a chance against these two, as it's well made, memorable, and emotionally affecting. I don't see Jane Austen's Period Drama making an impact (it's more like a good SNL sketch), and Butcher's Stain is in my, and in many other people's opinions, not up to par with the others. (I actively disliked the short.) So that means...

Will Win: A Friend of Dorothy
Could Win: Two People Exchanging Saliva  

Oscar Nominations Reaction 2026

How did I do? 87/110, or a B+. This is on par with my usual performance. 

Sixteen nominations: a new record by Sinners. And the kicker? It would have broken the record even without the new category of Casting. This is surely the story of the morning, but there's another one that I think is also quite interesting.

I have never seen an actual snub like this one. I was calling for seven nominations for Wicked: For Good, and it received... none. I think we in the awards race overuse the term "snub", but this certainly should count as one. What happened? I think the fact that the two films are basically just one very long movie split into two meant that nominators saw the film already be awarded last year. But that explanation still doesn't quite sit right with me. I think analysts will be looking at this one for a long time to come.

One Battle After Another is in second place with 13 nominations, missing one with Chase Infiniti, who was edged out by Kate Hudson--not an entirely unforeseen situation, mind you. Hamnet didn't do quite as well as I thought, with Paul Mescal missing, but Sentimental Value did very well indeed. That film missing nominations at the Actor Awards can now be seen as an anomaly, and Skarsgård may actually win the Oscar. Also doing very well are Frankenstein and Marty Supreme. It may be unusual for a film with nine nominations to miss out a Directing nod, but Del Toro was squeaked out by Trier and Safie--two other filmmakers with nine-time nominated films. I think that this year saw a relatively small number of films dominating, with massive hauls. 

Other surprises? Avatar getting into costumes; visual effects not going the way many were expecting; and makeup & hairstyling going for some more obscure work (which actually isn't all that surprising: this category very often goes its own way). I didn't see that Viva Verdi song coming--I haven't even heard of the film--but other than these relatively minor surprises, there weren't very many.

Best Picture

1. One Battle After Another
2. Sinners
3. Hamnet
4. Marty Supreme
5. Frankenstein
6. Sentimental Value
7. Bugonia
8. Train Dreams
9. The Secret Agent
11. F1

9/10

Director
Huh. I was anticipating a surprise, maybe two, but instead got all five.

1. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another
2. Ryan Coogler, Sinners
3. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet
4. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value
5. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme

5/5

Actress

1. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet
2. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I'd Kick You
3. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value
4. Emma Stone, Bugonia
6. Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue

4/5

Actor

1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme
2. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another
3. Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon
4. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners
5. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent

5/5

Supporting Actress
Even Grande was a victim of the Wicked: For Good snub going on.

1. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another
2. Amy Madigan, Weapons
3. Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners
4. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, Sentimental Value
7. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value

4/5

Supporting Actor
I'm actually surprised that Mescal didn't land here: category fraud? Too subtle?

1. Benicio Del Toro, One Battle After Another
2. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another
3. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value
4. Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein
8. Delroy Lindo, Sinners

4/5

Adapted Screenplay

1. One Battle After Another
2. Hamnet
3. Bugonia
4. Train Dreams
5. Frankenstein

5/5

Original Screenplay

1. Sinners
2. Sentimental Value
3. Marty Supreme
4. It Was Just An Accident
7. Blue Moon

4/5

Casting
And that was less surprising than I thought it would be. 

1. Sinners 
2. One Battle After Another
3. Marty Supreme
4. Hamnet
6. The Secret Agent

4/5

Cinematography

1. Sinners
2. One Battle After Another
3. Train Dreams
4. Frankenstein
6. Marty Supreme

4/5

Editing

1. One Battle After Another
2. Marty Supreme
3. Sinners
4. F1
6. Sentimental Value

4/5

Costume Design
The top four are locked in, but beyond that, this category often throws us a surprise or two. I suspect Hamnet may not be as strong as we think, and that Hedda or Spider Woman may be shockers.

1. Frankenstein
3. Sinners
4. Hamnet
6. Marty Supreme
-. Avatar: Fire and Ash

3/5 

Production Design

1. Frankenstein
2. Sinners
4. Hamnet
5. Marty Supreme
7. One Battle After Another

4/5

Makeup & Hairstyling

1. Frankenstein
2. Sinners
4. The Smashing Machine
6. The Ugly Stepsister
8. Kokuho

3/5 

Sound

1. F1
2. Sinners
3. One Battle After Another
6. Sirat
7. Frankenstein

3/5

Original Score

1. Sinners
2. One Battle After Another
3. Hamnet
4. Frankenstein
10. Bugonia

 4/5 

Original Song

1. "Golden", KPop Demon Hunters
2. "I Lied to You", Sinners
4. "Dear Me", Diane Warren: Relentless
5. "Train Dreams", Train Dreams
-. "Sweet Dreams of Joy", Viva Verdi

4/5 

Visual Effects

1. Avatar: Fire and Ash
2. F1
5. Sinners
7. The Lost Bus
9. Jurassic World Rebirth

3/5

International Feature
And Tunisia was the spoiler--sorry, No Other Choice. 

1. The Secret Agent (Brazil)
2. Sentimental Value (Norway)
3. It Was Just an Accident (France)
4. Sirat (Spain)
6. The Voice of Hind Rajab (Tunisia)

4/5

Animated Feature

1. KPop Demon Hunters
2. Zootopia 2
3. Arco
4. Elio
5. Little Amélie or the Character of Rain

5/5

Documentary Feature

2. The Perfect Neighbor
4. The Alabama Solution
7. Come See Me in the Good Light
8. Mr. Nobody Against Putin
9. Cutting Through Rocks

2/5

TALLIES

Sixteen: Sinners
Thirteen: One Battle After Another
Nine: Frankenstein, Marty Supreme, Sentimental Value
Eight: Hamnet
Five: Train Dreams
Four: Bugonia, F1, The Secret Agent
Two: Avatar: Fire and Ash, Blue Moon, KPop Demon Hunters, It Was Just an Accident, Sirat

Oscar Nominations Predictions 2026

 (Image from The Playlist)

This is a kinda crazy, but I'm calling for three films to get 11+ nominations: Sinners with 15, One Battle After Another with 14, and Hamnet with 11. Also doing very well, thank you, are Marty Supreme, Frankenstein and Sentimental Value: the last one surprises me, because it was snubbed entirely by the Actor Awards (formerly SAG). This season has been dominated by these half dozen films, with other Oscar hopefuls lagging behind. The eventual winner of Best Picture will be one of those top three contenders, and I don't think it's as written in stone for Battle as much as others are predicting. I think PTA will definitely win Director, but Picture might be more of a, well, battle, especially if Sinners beats the nominations record with those 15 noms.

Best Picture

1. One Battle After Another
2. Sinners
3. Hamnet
4. Marty Supreme
5. Frankenstein
6. Sentimental Value
7. Bugonia
8. Train Dreams
9. The Secret Agent
10. It Was Just an Accident
11. F1
12. Wicked: For Good
13. Weapons
14. Avatar: Fire and Ash
15. Sorry, Baby

Director
The top three are very stable, but I find the next four contenders are really battling it out. Trier's film was snubbed--as I previously mentioned--at the Actor Awards, Safdie might be a bit too "out there", Panahi's film has fallen in the rankings, and Del Toro is here because of the strength of his film's crafts. I do think this category is ripe for surprises, though, as it is almost every year.

1. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another
2. Ryan Coogler, Sinners
3. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet
4. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value
5. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme
6. Guillermo Del Toro, Frankenstein
7. Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident
8. Kleber Mendonca Filho, The Secret Agent
9. Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia
10. Clint Bentley, Train Dreams
11. John M. Chu, Wicked: For Good
12. Park Chan-wook, No Other Choice 

Actress
Another category that I think is in flux is this one, with Buckley being the only true 'safe' option. Byrne has swept the critic circles, yes, but this would be her film's only nomination. Reinsve was snubbed (I keep belabouring this point because I think it could really mean something in the end) at the Actors, while Stone has been picking up speed. The fifth slot could be newcomer Infiniti's, but it could just as easily be Hudson or Seyfried.

1. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet
2. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I'd Kick You
3. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value
4. Emma Stone, Bugonia
5. Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another
6. Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue
7. Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee
8. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good
9. Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love
10. Eva Victor, Sorry, Baby

Actor
The top 6 are stable; beyond that, I'd say only Edgerton has a remote chance of snagging a nomination. My gut says that Isaac is more likely than we think, but there's not much evidence to support this assertion. I do think that Moura is in a more precarious place than it seems, as is Jordan.

1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme
2. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another
3. Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon
4. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners
5. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent
6. Jesse Plemons, Bugonia
7. Joel Edgerton, Train Dreams
8. George Clooney, Jay Kelly
9. Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine
10. Lee Byung-hun, No Other Choice
11. Oscar Isaac, Frankenstein 

Supporting Actress
This strikes me as a bit of a bloodbath of a category. I can see any of my top 8 making it in, and I don't think anyone is safe (except Teyana Taylor). I'm rooting for Madigan for the win, and horror has been doing a bit better lately with the Academy, meaning that Mosaku is also in the running. But beyond that? Lilleaas was snubbed (along with everyone else) at the Actor Awards (formerly the SAG Awards), Grande's film has tanked in contention, A'zion is not well known, and Paltrow still has the unspoken connection with a particular, now disgraced, producer that I think is actually making an impact.

1. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another
2. Amy Madigan, Weapons
3. Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners
4. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, Sentimental Value
5. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good
6. Odessa A'zion, Marty Supreme
7. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value
8. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme
9. Regina Hall, One Battle After Another
10. Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine

Supporting Actor
This is unusual: a category in which many of us are having difficulty filling out a top ten. The top five seem very stable, although Caton picking up an Actor Award nomination throwing a slight wrench into things. Sandler, Lindo, and Scott seem like distant runners in the race, and I'm just throwing my own opinion for the tenth slot.

1. Benicio Del Toro, One Battle After Another
2. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another
3. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value
4. Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein
5. Paul Mescal, Hamnet
6. Miles Caton, Sinners
7. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly
8. Delroy Lindo, Sinners
9. Andrew Scott, Blue Moon
10. Jack O'Connell, Sinners

Adapted Screenplay
Another safe top five. 

1. One Battle After Another
2. Hamnet
3. Bugonia
4. Train Dreams
5. Frankenstein
6. No Other Choice
7. Wake Up Dead Man
8. Hedda
9. Nouvelle Vague
10. Wicked: For Good

Original Screenplay
Now here is a category that could reap some big surprises. Will Panahi be snubbed? Will Victor actually get nominated? The Secret Agent could either make a big splash tomorrow morning, or land with a thud. What about dark horse Weapons? 

1. Sinners
2. Sentimental Value
3. Marty Supreme
4. It Was Just An Accident
5. Sorry, Baby
6. The Secret Agent
7. Blue Moon
8. Weapons
9. Jay Kelly
10. If I Had Legs I'd Kick You

Casting 
A new category! Will this be just an award for 'best cast' or 'best ensemble', or will the craft of casting actually be taken quite seriously? I think Wicked's casting was inspired, but the film's disappointing reception may make an impact. Hamnet is actually a small cast, but it's a solid one--does that mean it gets in? Will the two Big Frontrunners of Sinners and One Battle After Another be a shoo-in here, or will the casting directors look elsewhere? This is a big question mark of a category, and it's exciting!

1. Sinners 
2. One Battle After Another
3. Marty Supreme
4. Hamnet
5. Sentimental Value
6. The Secret Agent
7. Weapons
8. Wicked: For Good
9. Frankenstein
10. Sirat

Cinematography

1. Sinners
2. One Battle After Another
3. Train Dreams
4. Frankenstein
5. Hamnet
6. Marty Supreme
7. F1
8. Nouvelle Vague
9. Bugonia
10. Sirat

Editing
A very stable top five.

1. One Battle After Another
2. Marty Supreme
3. Sinners
4. F1
5. Hamnet
6. Sentimental Value
7. Frankenstein
8. Bugonia
9. No Other Choice
10. Sirat

Costume Design
The top four are locked in, but beyond that, this category often throws us a surprise or two. I suspect Hamnet may not be as strong as we think, and that Hedda or Spider Woman may be shockers.

1. Frankenstein
2. Wicked: For Good
3. Sinners
4. Hamnet
5. The Testament of Ann Lee
6. Marty Supreme
7. Hedda
8. One Battle After Another
9. The Secret Agent
10. Kiss of the Spider Woman

Production Design
 I'm putting Avatar in the sixth spot, because I do think there's a bit of a backlash against digital production design. I'm also not confident in Hamnet or Marty Supreme here, though.

1. Frankenstein
2. Sinners
3. Wicked: For Good
4. Hamnet
5. Marty Supreme
6. Avatar: Fire and Ash
7. One Battle After Another
8. The Phoenician Scheme
9. The Testament of Ann Lee
10. The Fantastic Four: First Steps

Makeup & Hairstyling
I expect there to be a surprise here, maybe for The Ugly Stepsister.

1. Frankenstein
2. Sinners
3. Wicked: For Good
4. The Smashing Machine
5. One Battle After Another
6. The Ugly Stepsister
7. Marty Supreme
8. Kokuho
9. Nuremberg
10. The Alto Knights

Sound
A solid top five, with Sirat being the spoiler, I think.

1. F1
2. Sinners
3. One Battle After Another
4. Avatar: Fire and Ash
5. Wicked: For Good
6. Sirat
7. Frankenstein
8. Mission: Impossible - The Final Reckoning
9. Superman
10. Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere

Original Score
It would be cool to have a techno score nominated in Sirat, but I don't think that's actually going to happen!

1. Sinners
2. One Battle After Another
3. Hamnet
4. Frankenstein
5. Marty Supreme
6. Sirat
7. F1
8. Train Dreams
9. Tron: Ares
10. Bugonia

Original Song
This category is always a bit of a crapshoot... who will make it in? Please, not Warren!

1. "Golden", KPop Demon Hunters
2. "I Lied to You", Sinners
3. "The Girl in the Bubble", Wicked: For Good
4. "Dear Me", Diane Warren: Relentless
5. "Train Dreams", Train Dreams
6. "Last Time I Seen the Sun", Sinners
7. "Dream As One", Avatar: Fire and Ash
8. "No Place Like Home", Wicked: For Good
9. "Come See Me in the Good Light", Salt Then Sour Then Sweet
10. "Highest 2 Lowest", Highest 2 Lowest

Visual Effects

1. Avatar: Fire and Ash
2. F1
3. Superman
4. Wicked: For Good
5. Sinners
6. Frankenstein
7. The Lost Bus
8. Tron: Ares
9. Jurassic World Rebirth
10. The Electric State

International Feature
I think the top five is stable, but Tunisia's entry being the potential spoiler. The rest are along for the ride.

1. The Secret Agent (Brazil)
2. Sentimental Value (Norway)
3. It Was Just an Accident (France)
4. Sirat (Spain)
5. No Other Choice (South Korea)
6. The Voice of Hind Rajab (Tunisia)
7. Left Handed Girl (Taiwan)
8. Sound of Falling (Germany)
9. The President's Cake (Iraq)
10. Kokuho (Japan)

Animated Feature
Stable top four, but the rest are slugging it out. 

1. KPop Demon Hunters
2. Zootopia 2
3. Arco
4. Elio
5. Little Amélie or the Character of Rain
6. Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba Infinity Castle
7. Scarlet
8. In Your Dreams
9. Chainsaw Man — The Movie: Reze Arc
10. The Bad Guys 2

Documentary Feature
I never know in this category, yet last year I got four!

1. 2000 Meters to Andriivka
2. The Perfect Neighbor
3. Cover-Up
4. The Alabama Solution
5. Apocalypse in the Tropics
6. My Undesirable Friends
7. Come See Me in the Good Light
8. Mr. Nobody Against Putin
9. Cutting Through Rocks
10. Coexistence, My Ass!

TALLIES

Fifteen: Sinners
Fourteen: One Battle After Another
Eleven: Hamnet
Eight: Frankenstein, Marty Supreme, Sentimental Value
Seven: Wicked: For Good
Four: Train Dreams
Three: Bugonia, F1, It Was Just an Accident, The Secret Agent
Two: Avatar: Fire and Ash, KPop Demon Hunters
One: The Alabama Solution, Apocalypse in the Tropics, 2000 Meters to Andriivka, Arco, Blue Moon, Cover Up, Diane Warren: Relentless, Elio, If I Had Legs I'd Kick You, Little Amélie or the Character of Rain, No Other Choice, The Perfect Neighbor, The Smashing Machine, Sirat, Sorry Baby, Superman, The Testament of Ann Lee, Weapons, Zootopia 2

Oscar Predictions 2025

I'm really not sticking my neck out this year with trying to predict upsets, like I usually try to do. No--this year, I'm trying to stick to consensus and gauge the atmosphere of the film industry. The only category that I am thinking an 'upset' will occur is Animated Feature, where Flow will take the prize over The Wild Robot. I think Anora will do very well, but not as well as it could, with three big awards: Picture, Director, and Original Screenplay, with a chance it may take Actress and Editing. The Brutalist is hot on its tail, though, with predictions in Actor, Cinematography, and Score. But Conclave may indeed be the one to win it all, with predicted Screenplay and Editing wins--a deadly combination. This is truly a spread-the-wealth year, with no one getting more than 3 predicted wins (including Emilia Pérez). The Substance, Dune, and Wicked look to get two each.

Best Picture
What a race this year! It began in Cannes, with Anora picking up the Palme d'Or, but with Emilia Pérez also picking up an award (Best Actress for its group of leading ladies). Then The Brutalist and Conclave flexed their muscles. Then A Complete Unknown shimmered for a brief moment, right on the eve of nominations. It looked like Conclave would be the consensus choice, but then Anora won the PGA and DGA and it looked like it was over... until Conclave once again won a major award with BAFTA. So it's been a wild ride, to say the least. I will go with current consensus Anora, but I would not be in the least bit surprised if we had a Conclave win.

Predicted Winner: Anora

Spoiler: Conclave
Dark Horse: The Brutalist

Director
This is a toss-up between Baker and Corbet. Baker won the DGA, and his film is the widely-predicted winner for Picture, but Corbet has been the one winning the vast majority of this category elsewhere, including BAFTA and the Globes. Corbet's film is hugely respected, given his achievement with a less than $10 million budget. I really don't know how this one will pan out in the end.

Predicted Winner: Sean Baker, Anora
Toss-up: Brady Corbet, The Brutalist

Actress
What a category! A three-way race this year, with Moore and Madison really battling it out, and Torres right behind them, waiting for an opportunity to pounce.... or so I like to imagine. Moore has the narrative: a comeback story, widely respected by the industry, a film that talks directly about her issues with 'aging out' in Hollywood, and a commanding performance; but Madison has the ingenue factor in a film that is the likely Best Picture winner, and a simply fantastic performance to boot. I think it really does come down to these two, with Moore coming out ahead in the end. I will be very much looking forward to the name that is announced.

Predicted Winner: Demi Moore, The Substance
Right Behind: Mikey Madison, Anora
Spoiler: Fernanda Torres, I'm Still Here

Actor
Brody is the anticipated winner, but I have a suspicison that it will be SAG-winner Chalamet. The wise money is still on Brody, despite the AI controversy that has emerged.

Predicted Winner: Adrien Brody, The Brutalist
Suspicion!: Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown

Supporting Actress
Saldaña has swept the season, but I think Grande gave the better performance. Yet there has been some whispers that Rossellini might snatch it away from the frontrunner.

Predicted Winner: Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez
Spoiler: Ariana Grande, Wicked
Suspicion!: Isabella Rossellini, Conclave

Supporting Actor
And Culkin should walk away with this easily, despite the fact that he really didn't give much of a performance, instead just being himself (or so the whispers are saying!)

Predicted Winner: Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain
Spoiler: Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown

Adapted Screenplay
Easy peasy, lemon squeezy. Possibly the most solid "lock" of the night.

Predicted Winner: Conclave
If Hell Freezes Over: Nickel Boys

Original Screenplay
A toss-up between Anora and A Real Pain. Best Picture hopeful Anora is more likely in my opinion, but what about Cannes winner (for screenplay) The Substance?

Predicted Winner: Anora
Right Behind: A Real Pain
Spoiler: The Substance

Cinematography
Ed Lachman has never won, but Crawley made an epic-looking film for a shoestring budget. Go with The Brutalist.

Predicted Winner: The Brutalist
Spoiler: Maria

Editing
Directors don't usually win this award (except Cuarón and Cameron in recent memory), and Conclave certainly made its dialogue-heavy script fly by with rather astute editing. But how could you deny the craft behind the home-invasion/kidnapping scene in Anora?

Predicted Winner: Conclave
Right Behind: Anora

Costume Design
I finally saw Wicked this past week, and I was enamoured with the costumes. I think the Academy will agree, and most are predicting this, too.

Predicted Winner: Wicked
Spoiler: Nosferatu

Production Design
Likewise in this category, Wicked managed to create a beautiful Oz, but the production elements were also key to The Brutalist's success. I don't think it's a toss-up, but I would not be shocked if Corbet's film took this one.

Predicted Winner: Wicked
Spoiler: The Brutalist

Makeup & Hairstyling
Great category this year! But the industry seems to be backing The Substance here: every anonymous Oscar ballot I've seen has said that this is the one to beat.

Predicted Winner: The Substance
Spoiler: Wicked

Sound
Dune probably has this in the bag, as its bone-shaking rumbling has really impressed the industry. But the task of recording live vocals (an idea I'm usually very suspicious of), and doing it very well, belongs to Wicked. I wouldn't be surprised if the musical takes it. Then again, A Complete Unknown also recorded live, and is a film which I thought earlier in the season might have emerged as a frontrunner for Picture. It also won the CAS. Okay, I'm overthinking things...

Predicted Winner: Dune: Part Two
Spoiler: Wicked
Dark Horse: A Complete Unknown

Original Score
The craft behind The Brutalist's score is undeniable, but if Conclave does particularly well, its also-great score could pick this one up, too.

Predicted Winner: The Brutalist
Spoiler: Conclave

Original Song
"El Mal" is the wise choice, but will Diane Warren finally get her "due" after so many nominations with no win? (Please, no.)

Predicted Winner: "El Mal", Emilia Pérez
Spoiler:  "The Journey", The Six Triple Eight

Visual Effects
A pretty strong year for contenders, but it's gotta be Dune.

Predicted Winner: Dune: Part Two
Spoiler: Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes

International Feature
Yes, Emilia Pérez has a field-leading 13 nominations, so it's probably the smart bet... but I'm Still Here managed to sneak into the Best Picture ten, and is a suspect in an Actress upset. I would not be surprised if the Brazilian film won here.

Smart Money: Emilia Pérez (France)
Spoiler: I'm Still Here (Brazil)

Animated Feature
Chris Sanders is beloved by the industry, and has never won: but everyone I see is raving about Flow. (And for good reason: it's fantastic.) I think it will be the upset, given its likely international support and the fact that it has been surging lately. But The Wild Robot was the bigger hit, and has two other nominations. Smart money is on the maternal robot movie.

Predicted Winner: Flow
Wise Money: The Wild Robot

Documentary Feature
Very difficult category to predict. No Other Land is looking like the likely winner, but Porcelain War is equally topical and rather creative.

Predicted Winner: No Other Land
Spoiler: Porcelain War

Live Action Short
Hugely difficult category, because there are no real precursors and so few people are able to see these.

Predicted Winner: A Lien
Toss-up: The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent

Animated Short
Emotionally moving, or just delightful? That's always a toss-up here, but I think the easy-viewing Yuck! will get it. Maybe.

Predicted Winner: Yuck!
Toss-up: In the Shadow of the Cypress

Documentary Short
Easily accessible by viewers thanks to Netflix, The Only Girl in the Orchestra is a nice little piece about a female pioneer on the eve of retirement. But is it topical, like these winners usually are? Nope. I Am Ready, Warden and Incident are.

Predicted Winner: The Only Girl in the Orchestra
Toss-up: I am Ready, Warden
What do I know?: Incident

Oscar Nominations Predictions 2025

What a weird year, with no real frontrunner currently racing ahead--very much unlike the last few seasons. The contenders for most nominations are The Brutalist, Conclave, and the divisive Emilia Pérez. Getting fewer nominations will be Anora, which has been swinging all season at the top of the list for me: but it's also quite the, ahem, "dirty picture". I don't think it will take the final prize after all.

A Complete Unknown is fittingly a big question here: it's seen a late-season surge, including a nomination at the DGA for Mangold, something no one really expected. On my mind is also The Last Showgirl, which may score two acting nominations, like it did at SAG. Two foreign pictures--other than Emilia Pérez--may make a splash on Thursday morning: All We Imagine as Light and The Seed of the Sacred Fig. Let's see how they do: they may get nothing, or just one.

You will notice that many of the categories have a quirk this year: top four "safe" slots, with a fifth that is a battle. This will certainly yield some surprises for us.

 

Best Picture
This top eight is very solid, but what about the last two spots? It's an all-out slugfest. Sing Sing was the frontrunner for the first part of the season, but it has really fallen out of the conversation. A Real Pain seems likely given Kieran Culkin's sweep of his category, and the film's likely screenplay nod. That leaves out Nickel Boys, which despite the acclaim, has not done all that well with the precursors and the guilds. September 5, on the other hand, got an important slot in the PGA top ten: but if it does make it in, it could be its only nomination, something we haven't seen since the 1940s.

1. Anora
2. The Brutalist
3. Conclave
4. Emilia Pérez
5. Wicked
6. A Complete Unknown
7. Dune: Part Two
8. The Substance
9. Sing Sing
10. A Real Pain
11. Nickel Boys
12. September 5
13. All We Imagine as Light
14. The Seed of the Sacred Fig
15. Challengers

Director
If there is a narrative forming for Best Picture, look here. If Mangold makes it in, A Complete Unknown may win it all. Villeneuve should make it in by all means, but he was snubbed for the first installation, too. If any of the top four miss, it's big trouble for these wannabe Best Picture winners. Fargeat seems to me to be the "surprise" (many are predicting her), but I would not rule out Kapadia or Rasoulof making an even bigger surprise here. I also could not leave out Chu, given the smash success of Wicked.

1. Brady Corbet, The Brutalist
2. Sean Baker, Anora
3. Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez
4. Edward Berger, Conclave
5. Coralie Fargeat, The Substance
6. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two
7. James Mangold, A Complete Unknown
8. RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys
9. Payal Kapadia, All We Imagine as Light
10. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig
11. John M. Chu, Wicked

Actress
The first four are safe, but it's that fifth position that many are debating. Will it be the Golden Globe-winning Torres (a winner there has never missed the Oscar nom)? Or the SAG-nominated Anderson? Or will it be the critical darling of Jean-Baptiste? Heck, even Jolie has a chance of pulling off a Kristen Stewart (Spencer) surprise.

1. Demi Moore, The Substance
2. Mikey Madison, Anora
3. Karla Sofia Gascon, Emilia Pérez
4. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked
5. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths
6. Fernanda Torres, I'm Still Here
7. Pamela Anderson, The Last Showgirl
8. Nicole Kidman, Babygirl
9. Angelina Jolie, Maria
10. Kate Winslet, Lee

Actor
These five have coagulated throughout the entire season, but there's always a surprise somewhere. Grant is well-liked, and Stan has two performances that are in the running. Still, it's difficult to not see at least this top four getting in, with Craig/Stan/Grant battling it out.

1. Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown
2. Adrien Brody, The Brutalist
3. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave
4. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing
5. Daniel Craig, Queer
6. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice
7. Hugh Grant, Heretic
8. Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain
9. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man
10. Glen Powell, Hit Man

Supporting Actress
Yet another category where the top four are "safe", with a smattering of others battling it out for the last position. Jamie Lee Curtis is well-liked in the industry and was nominated for the SAG (seemingly out of nowhere, with no real precursor action); Qualley has made a name for herself in a well-liked film; Deadwyler wants to make up for the snub from a few years ago for Till; Barbaro also got the SAG nom in a film that has been picking up speed; and Gomez... well, she's a big star in Emilia Pérez, which will likely be racking up the nominations. So who will it be?

1. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez
2. Ariana Grande, Wicked
3. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave
4. Felicity Jones, The Brutalist
5. Margaret Qualley, The Substance
6. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson
7. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys
8. Jamie Lee Curtis, The Last Showgirl
9. Monica Barbaro, A Complete Unknown
10. Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez

Supporting Actor
Culkin has been sweeping, and is one of the reasons why some are saying his film will get into Best Picture. I'm fairly confident in this top five: any beyond the top seven have really no chance of getting in. Yes, even SAG-nominated Jonathan Bailey, whom seemimgly no one saw coming.

1. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain
2. Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown
3. Guy Pearce, The Brutalist
4. Yura Borisov, Anora
5. Clerence Maclin, Sing Sing
6. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice
7. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II
8. Stanley Tucci, Conclave
9. Jonathan Bailey, Wicked
10. Mark Eydelshteyn, Anora

Adapted Screenplay
I think that A Complete Unknown's rise will displace Dune: Part Two. This one seems ripe for surprises, though.

1. Conclave
2. Emilia Pérez
3. Sing Sing
4. Nickel Boys
5. A Complete Unknown
6. Dune: Part Two
7. Wicked
8. Hit Man
9. Nosferatu
10. I'm Still Here

Original Screenplay
Lo! And behold: another instance of the game "What will make that fifth position?" I think it will be the well-liked Challengers by Justin Kuritzkes, but others are saying it will be September 5, which has picked up a PGA nom. Foreign works by Kapadia and Rasoulof also look promising to me, and we cannot forget that Mike Leigh is very popular among writers.

1. Anora
2. The Brutalist
3. The Substance
4. A Real Pain
5. Challengers
6. September 5
7. Hard Truths
8. All We Imagine as Light
9. The Seed of the Sacred Fig
10. Kneecap

Cinematography
The ASC nominated--get this--seven films this year, and The Brutalist wasn't one of them. Should I be not suggesting this as number one, then? I think this is another category in flux with a lot of great potential nominees, so it's difficult to name only five.

1. The Brutalist
2. Nosferatu
3. Dune: Part Two
4. Conclave
5. Nickel Boys
6. Wicked
7. Maria
8. Emilia Pérez
9. A Complete Unknown
10. The Girl With the Needle

Editing
I'm fairly confident in these top five, and expect Best Picture to eventually be one of these.

1. Conclave
2. Anora
3. Emilia Pérez
4. Dune: Part Two
5. The Brutalist
6. Challengers
7. A Complete Unknown
8. Wicked
9. September 5
10. Nickel Boys

Costume Design
This category seems to be complete chaos this year. Will A Complete Unknown make it in, given its meteoric rise lately? But what will it bump out? Will Blitz follow the BAFTA nod? What about beloved Colleen Atwood's work on Tim Burton's latest?

1. Nosferatu
2. Wicked
3. Gladiator II
4. Dune: Part Two
5. Conclave
6. Maria
7. Blitz
8. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice
9. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga
10. A Complete Unknown

Production Design
Another top four "safe" bets, with three battling it out for that fifth spot.
 
1. The Brutalist
2. Nosferatu
3. Dune: Part Two
4. Wicked
5. Conclave
6. Gladiator II
7. A Complete Unknown
8. Blitz
9. Maria
10. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice

Makeup & Hairstyling
It seems to me that Dune: Part Two has been sinking quite a bit lately; will underdog A Different Man rise to the top five?

1. The Substance
2. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice
3. Wicked
4. Nosferatu
5. Dune: Part Two
6. A Different Man
7. Emilia Pérez
8. The Apprentice
9. Waltzing with Brando
10. Maria

Sound
This category... man, it threw some surprises this year when the shortlist came out. I thought, for example, that Conclave was a shoo-in. I guess not!

1. Dune: Part Two
2. Wicked
3. A Complete Unknown
4. Gladiator II
5. Emilia Pérez
6. Deadpool and Wolverine
7. Alien: Romulus
8. Blitz
9. Joker: Folie a Deux
10. The Wild Robot

Original Score
I'm fairly confident in this category, but perhaps Wicked will indeed make it in.

1. Emilia Pérez
2. The Brutalist
3. Conclave
4. The Wild Robot
5. Challengers
6. Wicked
7. Gladiator II
8. Nosferatu
9. Sing Sing
10. The Room Next Door

Original Song
This, on the other hand, is truly chaos. I really don't know how to make heads or tails of this besides the top three.

1. "El Mal", Emilia Pérez
2. "Mi Camino", Emilia Pérez
3. "Kiss the Sky", The Wild Robot
4. "Compress/Repress", Challengers
5. "Haper and Will Go West", Will & Harper
6. "The Journey", The Six Triple Eight
7. "Never Too Late", Elton John: Never Too Late
8. "Like a Bird", Sing Sing
9. "Piece by Piece", Piece by Piece
10. "Sick in the Head", Kneecap

Visual Effects
The top three seem very safe to me--yes, that makes two ape films--but I think that Twisters will actually get in, despite what I'm listing here.

1. Dune: Part Two
2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes
3. Better Man
4. Gladiator II
5. Wicked
6. Twisters
7. Mufasa: The Lion King
8. Civil War
9. Alien: Romulus
10. Deadpool & Wolverine

International Feature
Another slug-fest is happening here. Besides the top three listed here, this category could go anywhere. I somehow think that the Thai entry will sneak in, above the more likely entries here.

1. Emilia Pérez (France)
2. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (Germany)
3. I'm Still Here (Brazil)
4. Kneecap (Ireland)
5. The Girl With the Needle (Denmark)
6. Flow (Latvia)
7. Vermiglio (Italy)
8. Universal Language (Canada)
9. How to Make Millions Before Grandma Dies (Thailand)
10. Dahomey (Senegal)
11. From Ground Zero (Palestine)

Animated Feature
Will it be Memoir of a Snail, or Moana 2? I think the quirky feature will take precedence over the blockbuster.

1. The Wild Robot
2. Flow
3. Inside Out 2
4. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl
5. Memoir of a Snail
6. Moana 2
7. Piece by Piece
8. Chicken for Linda!
9. Transformers One
10. Kung Fu Panda 4

Documentary Feature
Complete and utter crap shoot here. I have no idea what's going on in this category.

1. No Other Land
2. Dahomey
3. Porcelain War
4. Sugarcane
5. Black Box Diaries
6. The Remarkable Life of Ibelin
7. Daughters
8. Will & Harper
9. Queendom
10. Soundtrack of a Coup d'Etat
Also in Contention: Eno; Hollywoodgate; Frida; Union; The Bibi Files

TALLIES

So it seems that Emilia Pérez will lead the way, with The Brutalist and Conclave closely behind. The fact that we may have five films with eight or more nominations each is actually kind of astounding, and shows how much the season has solidified around eight or so films. Quite the number of single-nom films, though!

Eleven: Emilia Pérez
Ten: The Brutalist, Conclave
Eight: Dune: Part Two, Wicked
Six: Anora, The Substance
Five: A Complete Unknown
Four: Nosferatu, Sing Sing
Three: A Real Pain, Challengers, Gladiator II, The Wild Robot
Two: Nickel Boys
One: Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, Better Man, Black Box Diaries, Dahomey,  Flow, The Girl with the Needle, Hard Truths, Inside Out 2, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Kneecap, Memoir of a Snail, No Other Land, Porcelain War, Queer, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, Sugarcane Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, Will & Harper,

Oscar Nominations Reaction 2022

75/105

Certainly not my best year, but that's also because of so many surprises! Almost every category had a "Huh! Didn't see that coming" moment: Nightmare Alley sneaking into Picture; Villeneuve missing like he did at the BAFTAs; surprises in both supporting acting roles (Simmons? Dench?); West Side Story doing well, but not quite as well as I was expecting; editing, which left out some key players; Drive My Car getting four nominations, not just for International; and the hilarious snubs of House of Gucci.

It certainly looks like The Power of the Dog's to lose at this point, as it leads with twelve nominations, a little bit more than what people were predicting.

Best Picture

1. Belfast
2. The Power of the Dog
3. Dune
4. West Side Story
5. Licorice Pizza
6. CODA
7. King Richard
8. Don't Look Up
10. Drive My Car
13. Nightmare Alley

9/10

Director
I'm sorry, what? Did Dune just direct itself to ten nominations?

1. Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog
3. Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza
4. Kenneth Branagh, Belfast
5. Steven Spielberg, West Side Story
6. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Drive My Car

4/5

Actress
Gaga, who has been campaigning hard for the nomination, has been snubbed! Stewart, who many were considering to be out of the rankings because of misses with BAFTA and SAG, makes it in.

1. Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos
2. Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter
4. Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye
6. Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers
7. Kristen Stewart, Spencer

3/5

Actor
Aaaaaand it's the SAG five.

1. Will Smith, King Richard
2. Benedict Cumberpatch, The Power of the Dog
3. Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth
4. Andrew Garfield, tick, tick... Boom!
6. Javier Bardem, Being the Ricardos

4/5

Supporting Actress
Belfast was nominated here, but with a different actress: the legendary Judi Dench, whom I suspected early on would make it in, but never had the guts to say.

1. Ariana DeBose, West Side Story
2. Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog
4. Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard
8. Jessie Buckley, The Lost Daughter
-. Judi Dench, Belfast

3/5

Supporting Actor

1. Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog
2. Troy Kotsur, CODA
3. Ciaran Hinds, Belfast
7. Jesse Plemons, The Power of the Dog
-. J.K. Simmons, Being the Ricardos

3/5

Adapted Screenplay

1. The Power of the Dog
2. CODA
4. Dune
5. Drive My Car
6. The Lost Daughter

4/5

Original Screenplay

1. Licorice Pizza
2. Belfast
3. King Richard
4. Don't Look Up
10. The Worst Person in the World

4/5

Editing

1. Dune
2. The Power of the Dog
6. Don't Look Up
7. tick, tick... Boom!
8. King Richard

2/5

Cinematography

1. Dune
2. The Power of the Dog
3. The Tragedy of Macbeth
4. West Side Story
6. Nightmare Alley

4/5

Production Design

1. Dune
2. Nightmare Alley
3. West Side Story
5. The Tragedy of Macbeth
-. The Power of the Dog

4/5

Costume Design
When House of Gucci missed here, I knew the film was in trouble and anticipated snubs.

1. Cruella
2. Dune
4. West Side Story
5. Nightmare Alley
7. Cyrano

4/5

Makeup and Hairstyling

1. The Eyes of Tammy Faye
2. Dune
3. Cruella
4. House of Gucci
9. Coming 2 America

4/5

Original Score

1. Dune
2. The Power of the Dog
3. Don't Look Up
4. Encanto
6. Parallel Mothers

4/5


Original Song

1. "No Time to Die", No Time to Die
2. "Dos Oruguitas", Encanto
3. "Be Alive", King Richard
7. "Down to Joy", Belfast
-. "Somehow You Do", Four Good Days

3/5

Sound

1. Dune
2. West Side Story
3. No Time to Die
5. Belfast
6. The Power of the Dog

4/5

Visual Effects

1. Dune
2. Spider-Man: No Way Home
3. Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings
6. No Time to Die
7. Free Guy

3/5

Animated Feature

1. Encanto
2. Flee
3. The Mitchells vs the Machines
4. Luca
5. Raya and the Last Dragon

5/5


International Feature

1. Drive My Car (Japan)
3. Flee (Denmark)
4. The Worst Person in the World (Norway)
5. The Hand of God (Italy)
8. Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom (Bhutan)

4/5

Documentary Feature

1. Flee
4. Ascension
5. Summer of Soul
8. Attica
10. Writing with Fire

3/5

Tallies: Films With More Than One Nomination

The Power of the Dog 12
Dune 10
West Side Story 7
Belfast 7
King Richard 6
Don't Look Up 4
Drive My Car 4
Nightmare Alley 4
Being the Ricardos 3
CODA 3
Encanto 3
Flee 3
Licorice Pizza 3
The Lost Daughter 3
The Tragedy of Macbeth 3
No Time to Die 3
Cruella 2
The Eyes of Tammy Faye 2
Parallel Mothers 2
tick, tick... Boom! 2
The Worst Person in the World 2

Oscar Nominations Predictions 2022

I haven't been following the Oscar race as closely this year, with one primary reason: I haven't been to the cinema since the pandemic started. Therefore, I haven't seen these films... but I'm still making my predictions! This is based on critical and industry support, along with following Film Twitter and awards blogs. It looks like it's a four-way race between Belfast, The Power of the Dog, Dune and West Side Story for Oscar glory, with these films leading the tally.

Best Picture

1. Belfast
2. The Power of the Dog
3. Dune
4. West Side Story
5. Licorice Pizza
6. CODA
7. King Richard
8. Don't Look Up
9. tick, tick... Boom!
10. Drive My Car
11. The Tragedy of Macbeth
12. Being the Ricardos
13. Nightmare Alley
14. House of Gucci
15. The Lost Daughter
16. Spider-Man: No Way Home
17. Cyrano
18. Spencer
19. Titane
20. Parallel Mothers

Director
I'm going with the DGA five, but this is a category ripe for surprises.

1. Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog
2. Denis Villeneuve, Dune
3. Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza
4. Kenneth Branagh, Belfast
5. Steven Spielberg, West Side Story
6. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Drive My Car
7. Julia Ducournau, Titane
8. Joel Coen, The Tragedy of Macbeth
9. Pedro Almodovar, Parallel Mothers
10. Adam McKay, Don't Look Up
Also in Contention: Reinaldo Marcus Green (King Richard), Guillermo del Toro (Nightmare Alley), Maggie Gyllenhaal (The Lost Daughter), Lin-Manuel Miranda (tick, tick... Boom!), Sian Heder (CODA)

Actress
Unlike last year, where the final five were widely predicted, this time there is a general consensus that the category is in flux. No one can agree on who's the front-runner, with Stewart missing out on some major award nominations when only a few months ago she was practically crowned Victor-in-Waiting. I think that Haim will make it in, but I'm not confident in this lineup at all. Expect there to be some surprises tomorrow morning.

1. Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos
2. Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter
3. Lady Gaga, House of Gucci
4. Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye
5. Alana Haim, Licorice Pizza
6. Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers
7. Kristen Stewart, Spencer
8. Jennifer Hudson, Respect
9. Rachel Zegler, West Side Story
10. Frances McDormand, The Tragedy of Macbeth

Actor
I'm just not convinced that Bardem will translate his SAG nomination to an Oscar one. Does that mean that DiCaprio will sneak into that fifth place? Or will Dinklage or Cage make it in, with their well-received performances in smaller films?

1. Will Smith, King Richard
2. Benedict Cumberpatch, The Power of the Dog
3. Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth
4. Andrew Garfield, tick, tick... Boom!
5. Nicolas Cage, Pig
6. Javier Bardem, Being the Ricardos
7. Leonardo DiCaprio, Don't Look Up
8. Peter Dinklage, Cyrano
9. Adam Driver, Annette
10. Hidetoshi Nishijima, Drive My Car

Supporting Actress
How wonderful would it be to see Moreno make it in, along with DeBose? I mean, to see Moreno, who won the Oscar for the 1961 West Side Story as Anita, watch rising star DeBose win for the same role? That's just the kind of delicious thing that the Academy lives for. Alas, I don't think Moreno will make it in, but this is a strong category that is just itching for a surprise.

1. Ariana DeBose, West Side Story
2. Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog
3. Caitriona Balfe, Belfast
4. Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard
5. Ruth Negga, Passing
6. Ann Dowd, Mass
7. Rita Moreno, West Side Story
8. Jessie Buckley, The Lost Daughter
9. Marlee Matlin, CODA
10. Cate Blanchett, Nightmare Alley

Supporting Actor
Please don't make me list Jared Leto for his "Mamma-Mia, I like-a-da-spicy-meatball" performance.

1. Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog
2. Troy Kotsur, CODA
3. Ciaran Hinds, Belfast
4. Bradley Cooper, Licorice Pizza
5. Mike Faist, West Side Story
6. Jared Leto, House of Gucci
7. Jesse Plemons, The Power of the Dog
8. Jamie Dornan, Belfast
9. Ben Affleck, The Tender Bar
10. Jason Isaacs, Mass

Adapted Screenplay
What a category! I think any of the top ten here have a chance to make it in. I'm not all that convinced with CODA, but the industry awards to far have been in its favour, so there we have it.

1. The Power of the Dog
2. CODA
3. West Side Story
4. Dune
5. Drive My Car
6. The Lost Daughter
7. The Tragedy of Macbeth
8. Nightmare Alley
9. Passing
10. tick, tick... Boom!

Original Screenplay
A remarkably weak category this year, with two films that were not all that well received sneaking into the top five positions, yet getting industry support: Don't Look Up and Being the Ricardos.

1. Licorice Pizza
2. Belfast
3. King Richard
4. Don't Look Up
5. Being the Ricardos
6. Parallel Mothers
7. Mass
8. A Hero
9. Pig
10. The Worst Person in the World

Editing
I suspect that Drive My Car may make it in, but with no precursor mentions, it's at the bottom of my top ten list. So why do I think this? Because the last few weeks have been a flurry of people talking about the film, and with its surprising pacing and gutsy decisions (with the title card 45 minutes into the film). Still, you can't go wrong with this top five.

1. Dune
2. The Power of the Dog
3. Belfast
4. Licorice Pizza
5. West Side Story
6. Don't Look Up
7. tick, tick... Boom!
8. King Richard
9. Summer of Soul
10. Drive My Car

Cinematography
I'm not seeing anyone mention Passing in their nominations, but it's another film that I think may surprise here.

1. Dune
2. The Power of the Dog
3. The Tragedy of Macbeth
4. West Side Story
5. Belfast
6. Nightmare Alley
7. The Green Knight
8. Spencer
9. tick, tick... Boom!
10. Passing

Production Design

1. Dune
2. Nightmare Alley
3. West Side Story
4. The French Dispatch
5. The Tragedy of Macbeth
6. Cyrano
7. Belfast
8. Spencer
9. Cruella
10. The Last Duel

Costume Design

1. Cruella
2. Dune
3. House of Gucci
4. West Side Story
5. Nightmare Alley
6. Spencer
7. Cyrano
8. The French Dispatch
9. Coming 2 America
10. Annette

Makeup and Hairstyling

1. The Eyes of Tammy Faye
2. Dune
3. Cruella
4. House of Gucci
5. West Side Story
6. Nightmare Alley
7. The Suicide Squad
8. Cyrano
9. Coming 2 America
10. No Time to Die

Original Score

1. Dune
2. The Power of the Dog
3. Don't Look Up
4. Encanto
5. The French Dispatch
6. Parallel Mothers
7. Spencer
8. No Time to Die
9. The Harder They Fall
10. The Green Knight

Original Song
No, "We Don't Talk About Bruno" won't be nominated. Why? Because it wasn't submitted for consideration, something that a lot of people have been calling a huge mistake for Disney.

1. "No Time to Die", No Time to Die
2. "Dos Oruguitas", Encanto
3. "Be Alive", King Richard
4. "Just Look Up", Don't Look Up
5. "Here I Am Singing My Way Home", Respect
6. "Guns Go Bang", The Harder They Fall
7. "Down to Joy", Belfast
8. "So May We Start", Annette
9. "Your Song Saved My Life", Sing 2
10. "Beyond the Shore", CODA

Sound

1. Dune
2. West Side Story
3. No Time to Die
4. tick, tick... Boom!
5. Belfast
6. The Power of the Dog
7. Spider-Man: No Way Home
8. A Quiet Place Part II
9. The Matrix Resurrections
10. Last Night in Soho

Visual Effects

1. Dune
2. Spider-Man: No Way Home
3. Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings
4. The Matrix Resurrections
5. Godzilla vs. Kong
6. No Time to Die
7. Free Guy
8. Eternals
9. Ghostbusters: Afterlife
10. Black Widow

Animated Feature
You'll notice something here: Flee is predicted in Animated, International and Documentary feature categories. Cool!

1. Encanto
2. Flee
3. The Mitchells vs the Machines
4. Luca
5. Raya and the Last Dragon
6. Belle
7. Sing 2
8. The Summit of the Gods
9. ??
10. ??


International Feature

1. Drive My Car (Japan)
2. A Hero (Iran)
3. Flee (Denmark)
4. The Worst Person in the World (Norway)
5. The Hand of God (Italy)
6. Compartment No 6 (Finland)
7. Hive (Kosovo)
8. Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom (Bhutan)
9. Lamb (Iceland)

Documentary Feature
There's always a surprise here, usually the snub of a supposed front-runner. I think it'll be Summer of Soul that will be snubbed here, but I'm still placing it in my top 5, because all industry support is suggesting it.

1. Flee
2. The Rescue
3. Procession
4. Ascension
5. Summer of Soul
6. Julia
7. The Velvet Underground
8. Attica
9. The First Wave
10. Writing with Fire

Tallies: Films With More Than One Nomination

Dune 11
West Side Story 11
The Power of the Dog 9
Belfast 8
Licorice Pizza 6
King Richard 5
Don't Look Up 4
CODA 3
Drive My Car 3
Encanto 3
Flee 3
House of Gucci 3
tick, tick... Boom! 3
The Tragedy of Macbeth 3
Being the Ricardos 2
Cruella 2
The Eyes of Tammy Faye 2
The French Dispatch 2
Nightmare Alley 2
No Time to Die 2

Oscar Nominations 2021 Reaction

79/103
If I did the math right, was this my worst year since I've been keeping track? I certainly seems so, dipping into the 70s, but then I remembered: one less category. Sound has been consolidated. So if I add three (let's say I got 3/5 to match each category to what I actually got), I get 82, which is about par.
So I think the story of this year is Judas and the Black Messiah, which has six nominations, including Best Picture and two in Supporting Actor -- four more than the two nominations I was expecting. Ma Rainey's Black Bottom didn't do quite as well as I was guessing, but I think in retrospect it makes sense. Interesting to see it miss out on Picture along with One Night in Miami, as both are stage adaptations, and although I haven't seen them yet, word is that both are, well, stagey.
Nomadland seems to be the frontrunner here now, as Trial missed out on a crucial Directing nomination: but as we have seen, this hasn't meant much the past few years. Green Book, anyone?

Best Picture
I've been over the past few years getting all of these correct. Not this year! Ma Rainey and One Night in Miami miss out.

1. Nomadland
2. The Trial of the Chicago 7
3. Minari
4. Promising Young Woman
5. Mank
8. Sound of Metal
11. Judas and the Black Messiah
13. The Father
6/8


Director
There were rumblings online that Vinterberg would be the surprise here, and they were correct. Happy to see two women become nominees. Sorry, Sorkin!

1. Chloé Zhao, Nomadland
2. David Fincher, Mank
4. Lee Isaac Chung, Minari
5. Emerald Fennell, Promising Young Woman
10. Thomas Vinterberg, Another Round
4/5

Actress

1. Viola Davis, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
2. Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman
3. Frances McDormand, Nomadland
4. Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday
5. Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman
5/5

Actor

1. Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
2. Anthony Hopkins, The Father
3. Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal
4. Gary Oldman, Mank
5. Steven Yuen, Minari
5/5

Supporting Actress

1. Olivia Colman, The Father
2. Yuh-Jung Youn, Minari
3. Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
5. Amanda Seyfried, Mank
6. Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy
4/5

Supporting Actor
No one, and as far as I can tell, no one expected Judas to get two nominations here. Apparently the film is without a lead?

1. Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah
2. Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7
3. Leslie Odom Jr., One Night in Miami
4. Paul Raci, Sound of Metal
-. Lakeith Stanfield, Judas and the Black Messiah
4/5

Original Screenplay
A strong category, but Mank missing out is the story here. Sorry, David Fincher's father.

1. The Trial of the Chicago 7
2. Promising Young Woman
3. Minari
5. Sound of Metal
7. Judas and the Black Messiah
4/5

Adapted Screenplay
Okay, I loved hearing Borat Subsequent Moviefilm's full title and writing team being read aloud. Hilarious.

1. Nomadland
2. One Night in Miami
3. The Father
7. Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
9. The White Tiger
3/5


Editing
Mank didn't do as well as I thought it would, and with it missing here and in Original Screenplay.

1. The Trial of the Chicago 7
2. Nomadland
4. Sound of Metal
5. Promising Young Woman
6. The Father
4/5

Cinematography
I was right: there are surprises here. Minari misses out, and Judas continues its streak.

1. Nomadland
2. Mank
3. News of the World
6. The Trial of the Chicago 7
7. Judas and the Black Messiah
3/5

Production Design
Certainly didn't see The Father walking in here.

1. Mank
2. Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
3. News of the World
5. Tenet
-. The Father
4/5

Costume Design
Didn't expect Pinocchio to be double-nominated this year.

1. Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
2. Mank
3. Emma.
4. Mulan
-. Pinocchio
4/5

Makeup and Hairstyling
I really didn't want to see Hillbilly Elegy to be nominated here, but it was. It might win, too.

1. Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
2. Mank
3. Hillbilly Elegy
5. Emma.
6. Pinocchio
4/5

Original Score
NIN are double nominees. Wow!

1. Soul
2. Mank
3. Minari
4. News of the World
7. Da 5 Bloods
4/5

Original Song
It's rare that I get more than three here, let alone all five nominees.

1. "Speak Now", One Night in Miami
2. "Io Si (Seen)", The Life Ahead
3. "Fight for You", Judas and the Black Messiah
4. "Hear My Voice", The Trial of the Chicago 7
5. "Husavik", Eurovision Song Contest
5/5

Sound
Formerly Sound Mixing and Sound (Effects) Editing. For my score, assume this is doubled.

1. Sound of Metal
2. Mank
3. Soul
6. News of the World
7. Greyhound
3/5


Visual Effects
I found this to be a rather strange line-up, given the two surprises. I'm not even sure if I had heard of The One and Only Ivan before I started researching possible nominees.

1. Tenet
2. The Midnight Sky
3. Mulan
7. The One and Only Ivan
9. Love and Monsters
3/5

Animated Feature
I correctly predicted the selected five, foreseeing that the branch wouldn't nominate The Croods sequel.

1. Soul
2. Wolfwalkers
3. Onward
4. Over the Moon
5. Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon


International Feature
Two surprises!

1. Another Round (Denmark)
2. Quo Vadis, Aida? (Bosnia and Herzegovina)
3. Collective (Romania)
-. Better Days (Hong Kong)
-. The Man Who Sold His Skin
3/5

Documentary Feature
My worst category this year. Mole Agent surprises out of nowhere, and two well-received films that were expected to show up didn't. Always a tough call, this category is.

1. Time
2. Collective
6. Crip Camp
8. My Octopus Teacher
-. The Mole Agent
2/5

TALLIES
Films With More Than One Nomination
Nominations (Predicted Nominations)
Mank - 10 (13)
Judas and the Black Messiah - 6 (2)
Minari - 6 (7)
Nomadland - 6 (6)
Sound of Metal - 6 (6)
The Father - 6 (3)
The Trial of the Chicago 7 - 6 (6)
Ma Rainey's Black Bottom - 5 (8)
Promising Young Woman - 5 (5)
News of the World - 4 (5)
One Night in Miami - 3 (4)
Soul- 3 (4)
Tenet - 2 (4)
Mulan - 2 (3)
Another Round - 2 (1)
Borat Subsequent Moviefilm - 2 (1)
Collective - 2 (2)
Emma. - 2 (2)
Hillbilly Elegy - 2 (0)
Pinocchio - 2 (0)
Da 5  Bloods - 1 (2)

Oscar Nominations Predictions 2021

What a bizarre year 2020 was. Let's not dwell on the misery that it was, and let's divert our attention to the late Oscar season.

Mank seems to be poised to be the leader of this year's nominations --I'm looking at 13 nods-- but I don't see it translating well to Oscar night. The frontrunners in that respect are Nomadland and The Trial of the Chicago 7. Consensus seems to be that Trial will pick up Picture and Nomadland Directing, resulting in a "split year". In years past the general trick was to never predict Picture/Directing splits, as they were very difficult to see coming -- but as we have seen since Argo, these have become more common.

But the main story here is the diversity of nominees: we are suspecting that THREE of the Directing nominations could be women (Zhao, Fennell and King), which would also make (with Chung's Minari) THREE non-white directors. Considering that most years have five white men as the nominees, this is astounding!

Looking at the tallies, I see there are two films that I'm surprised to see racking up the potential nominations: Ma Rainey's Black Bottom (8 nods) and Sound of Metal (6 nods). Who woulda thunk it? Certainly not me a year ago.

Best Picture

1. Nomadland
2. The Trial of the Chicago 7
3. Minari
4. Promising Young Woman
5. Mank
6. One Night in Miami
7. Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
8. Sound of Metal
9. Da 5 Bloods
10. Soul
11. Judas and the Black Messiah
12. News of the World
13. The Father
14. Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
15. First Cow
16. The Mauritanian
17. Tenet
18. Pieces of a Woman
19. Hillbilly Elegy
20. Another Round

Director
How exciting would it be to have THREE women nominated? I think King might sneak in, but at whose expense? Could Sorkin miss? Or even *gasp* Fincher? I don't think anyone is locked here other than Zhao, including Fennell.

1. Chloé Zhao, Nomadland
2. David Fincher, Mank
3. Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7
4. Lee Isaac Chung, Minari
5. Emerald Fennell, Promising Young Woman
6. Regina King, One Night in Miami
7. Spike Lee, Da 5 Bloods
8. Darius Marder, Sound of Metal
9. Florian Zeller, The Father
10. Thomas Vinterberg, Another Round
Also in Contention: Paul Greengrass (News of the World) Shaka King (Judas and the Black Messiah), Kelly Reichardt (First Cow), George C. Wolfe (Ma Rainey's Black Bottom)

Actress
The top five here seem to be the general consensus: it's unlikely there will be a surprise here.

1. Viola Davis, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
2. Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman
3. Frances McDormand, Nomadland
4. Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday
5. Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman
6. Sophia Loren, The Life Ahead
7. Amy Adams, Hillbilly Elegy
8. Zendaya, Malcolm and Marie
9. Michelle Pfeiffer, French Exit
10. Yeri Han, Minari

Actor
I have a suspicion that Mikkelsen will make his way in, but again, at whose expense? Yuen?

1. Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
2. Anthony Hopkins, The Father
3. Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal
4. Gary Oldman, Mank
5. Steven Yuen, Minari
6. Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods
7. Mads Mikkelsen, Another Round
8. Kingsley Ben-Adir, One Night in Miami
9. Tom Hanks, News of the World
10. LaKeith Stanfield, Judas and the Black Messiah

Supporting Actress
This is a strange category: everyone's saying Close is in, but I really don't think she survived the critical bashing of the film. Foster won the Globe, meaning that she's likely nominated, and Bakalova has been doing quite well I think. Seyfried seems to be the weak one here, but I somehow have a feeling that she's in.

1. Olivia Colman, The Father
2. Yuh-Jung Youn, Minari
3. Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
4. Jodie Foster, The Mauritanian
5. Amanda Seyfried, Mank
6. Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy
7. Ellen Burstyn, Pieces of a Woman
8. Helena Zengel, News of the World
9. Saoirse Ronan, Ammonite
10. Dominque Fishback, Judas and the Black Messiah

Supporting Actor
Will Trial of the Chicago 7 be multi-nominated here? If so, with who?

1. Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah
2. Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7
3. Leslie Odom Jr., One Night in Miami
4. Paul Raci, Sound of Metal
5. Chadwick Boseman, Da 5 Bloods
6. Mark Rylance, The Trial of the Chicago 7
7. Jared Leto, The Little Things
8. Alan Kim, Minari
9. Bill Murray, On the Rocks
10. Yahya Abdul-Mateen II, The Trial of the Chicago 7

Original Screenplay
A rather strong category this year. I can see any of the top 8 getting in.

1. The Trial of the Chicago 7
2. Promising Young Woman
3. Minari
4. Mank
5. Sound of Metal
6. Soul
7. Judas and the Black Messiah
8. Da 5 Bloods
9. On the Rocks
10. Never Rarely Always Sometimes

Adapted Screenplay

1. Nomadland
2. One Night in Miami
3. The Father
4. News of the World
5. Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
6. I'm Thinking of Ending Things
7. Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
8. First Cow
9. The White Tiger
10. The Mauritanian

Editing

1. The Trial of the Chicago 7
2. Nomadland
3. Mank
4. Sound of Metal
5. Promising Young Woman
6. The Father
7. Minari
8. Tenet
9. News of the World
10. Da 5 Bloods

Cinematography
Tenet wasn't nominated by the Guild, but Trial was -- I still don't think that Trial's rather generic cinematography is deserving, but it somehow snuck in. Let's see if there's a surprise: I feel that this category is ripe for one.

1. Nomadland
2. Mank
3. News of the World
4. Minari
5. Tenet
6. The Trial of the Chicago 7
7. Judas and the Black Messiah
8. Da 5 Bloods
9. Cherry
10. Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

Production Design

1. Mank
2. Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
3. News of the World
4. Mulan
5. Tenet
6. Emma.
7. The Midnight Sky
8. The Trial of the Chicago 7
9. Personal History of David Copperfield
10. Rebecca

Costume Design

1. Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
2. Mank
3. Emma.
4. Mulan
5. News of the World
6. The United States vs. Billie Holiday
7. Personal History of David Copperfield
8. Ammonite
9. Promising Young Woman
10. Birds of Prey

Makeup and Hairstyling
I really don't want to see Hillbilly Elegy to be nominated here, but I suspect it will.
1. Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
2. Mank
3. Hillbilly Elegy
4. Birds of Prey
5. Emma.
6. Pinocchio
7. Jingle Jangle: A Christmas Journey
8. One Night in Miami
9. The Glorias
10. The Little Things

Original Score

1. Soul
2. Mank
3. Minari
4. News of the World
5. The Midnight Sky
6. Tenet
7. Da 5 Bloods
8. The Trial of the Chicago 7
9. The Little Things
10. Mulan

Original Song

1. "Speak Now", One Night in Miami
2. "Io Si (The Life Ahead)", Seen
3. "Fight for You", Judas and the Black Messiah
4. "Hear My Voice", The Trial of the Chicago 7
5. "Husavik", Eurovision Song Contest
6. "Turntables", All In: The Fight for Democracy
7. "Wuhan Flu", Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
8. "Rain Song", Minari
9. "Green", Sound of Metal
10. "Loyal Brave True", Mulan

Sound

1. Sound of Metal
2. Mank
3. Soul
4. Tenet
5. Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
6. News of the World
7. Greyhound
8. Nomadland
9. The Midnight Sky
10. The Trial of the Chicago 7

Visual Effects

1. Tenet
2. The Midnight Sky
3. Mulan
4. Mank
5. Welcome to Chechnya
6. Birds of Prey
7. The One and Only Ivan
8. Soul
9. Love and Monsters
10. Bloodshot

Animated Feature

1. Soul
2. Wolfwalkers
3. Onward
4. Over the Moon
5. Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon
6. The Croods: A New Age
7. The Willoughbys
8. Earwig and the Witch
9. Trolls World Tour
10. No. 7 Cherry Lane


International Feature
I think that A Sun from Taiwan, which has recently been getting some notice by critics and audiences, will be the surprise here.

1. Another Round (Denmark)
2. Quo Vadis, Aida? (Bosnia and Herzegovina)
3. Collective (Romania)
4. La Llorona (Guatemala)
5. Two of Us (France)
6. Dear Comrades! (Russia)
7. A Sun (Taiwan)
8. Night of the Kings (Cote d'Ivoire)
9. I'm No Longer Here (Mexico)

Documentary Feature

1. Time
2. Collective
3. Welcome to Chechnya
4. Dick Johnson is Dead
5. Boys State
6. Crip Camp
7. All In: The Fight for Democracy
8. My Octopus Teacher
9. The Truffle Hunters
10. 76 Days

TALLIES
Films With More Than One Nomination
Mank - 13
Ma Rainey's Black Bottom - 8
Minari - 7
Nomadland - 6
Sound of Metal - 6
The Trial of the Chicago 7 - 6
News of the World - 5
Promising Young Woman - 5
One Night in Miami - 4
Soul- 4
Tenet - 4
The Father - 3
Mulan - 3
Da 5  Bloods - 2
Emma. - 2
Judas and the Black Messiah - 2
The Midnight Sky - 2
Welcome to Chechnya - 2