Oscar Predictions 2024

 

This year has some very predictable races - and some very close ones, too. Oppenheimer is looking to have a sweep: I'm predicting it will win eight awards, but it may even be nine if it wins for its screenplay. But some of these categories are very, very competitive: will Barbie or Poor Things win in Costumes and Production design? No one is all that confident in their predictions there. And what about Lead Actress? It's a coin-toss at this point between Lily Gladstone and Emma Stone. The Battle of the Stones, it can be called. 

I'm actually playing it safe this year, which is somewhat unusual for me: I'm going with almost entirely consensus choices, except in one category, Adapted Screenplay. There I suspect that Barbie will be the 'surprise' winner. Otherwise? I'm not confident in any other bolder choices.

So, let's begin!

PICTURE

If you thought last year's Everything Everywhere All At Once was a front-runner, oh boy! Oppenheimer has this in the bag. I'm not even sure what could dethrone it at this point. Yes, Poor Things is amazing, but it will also be too weird for voters. The Holdovers was a potential upset like a month ago, but I feel that the film has declined in buzz from the beginning of the season. The film that I've heard people talk about a lot is actually Anatomy of a Fall: I think that it will do well on the ranked ballots - but well enough? No. Another film that may do well on the ranked ballot is American Fiction, but I also don't think it will be an upset.

1. Oppenheimer
2. Poor Things
3. The Holdovers
4. Anatomy of a Fall
5. Barbie
6. American Fiction
7. Killers of the Flower Moon
8. The Zone of Interest
9. Past Lives
10. Maestro

DIRECTING 

Why bother writing something up when we all know my personal favourite (/s), Christoper Nolan, has been completely sweeping the season? Lanthimos I think has the best chance to put up a fight, and despite all the pundits placing her last, I think Triet could be the spoiler.

1. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer
2. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things
3. Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall
4. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon
5. Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest

ACTRESS

Now, we know that Hollywood loves a "narrative" when it comes to its awards. Lily Gladstone not only gave an amazing performance, but she will be the first Indigenous actor to win an Oscar -- that is, if Emma Stone's undeniably even more amazing performance pulls it off. This is one of the nail-biter awards of the night. Gladstone wasn't nominated for the BAFTA (a huge hurdle to overcome) yet won the SAG, but she also has a role that could have easily been placed in the supporting category instead of lead. I don't think that will be her undoing, and Stone already has an Oscar, but damn... that performance of Stone's is an all-timer.

1. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon
2. Emma Stone, Poor Things
3. Sandra Huller, Anatomy of a Fall
4. Annette Bening, Nyad
5. Carey Mulligan, Maestro

ACTOR

Cillian Murphy is so central to the success of Oppenheimer that I think it will be difficult for voters to award anyone else the Oscar. Giamatti had the edge only a month ago, but as I've said above, his film has lost some of the buzz.

1. Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer
2. Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers
3. Bradley Cooper, Maestro
4. Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction
5. Colman Domingo, Rustin

SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Da'Vine Joy Randolph has been sweeping the season, and I think for good reason. It's a great performance in a well-loved film, and she has been a gracious winner throughout the season. I think that Blunt has a huge uphill fight to beat Randolph.

1. Da'Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers
2. Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer
3. America Ferrera, Barbie
4. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple
5. Jodie Foster, Nyad

SUPPORTING ACTOR

After like a decade plus of doing superhero fare, Downey broke free and showed us that yes, he can act. But I really want to see Gosling win here, I really do. He was the highlight of his film for me - but that was the problem, apparently, if you listened to Film Twitter. To have Barbie's only acting win be for a man is ~problematic~. I think that will be the undoing of him, unfortunately. But what a stacked category this year, I must say!

1. Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer
2. Ryan Gosling, Barbie
3. Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things
4. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon
5. Sterling K. Brown, American Fiction

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY 

Some pundits are saying that this is American Fiction's to lose, and I'm not sure I agree. You have it competing here with two of the biggest movies of the year: one that is set to sweep the Oscars, and the other that has been praised for its screenplay and has a swell of good-cheer for it to win some awards after two high-profile apparent "snubs". They are Oppenheimer and Barbie, and I think of the two, it will be Barbie that will win this award. Oppenheimer strikes me as more of a directing and acting showcase than for its writing, while Barbie is a feat of taking things down the untraveled road: it's unexpected. I did not particularly care for this road, but I know many, many people did. And so, my first non-consensus choice is:

1. Greta Gerwig and Noah Baumbach, Barbie
2. Cord Jefferson, American Fiction
3. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer
4. Tony McNamara, Poor Things
5. Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

If the Oscars were a month earlier, this would be The Holdovers all the way. But there has been a swell of interest for the Cannes-winning Anatomy of a Fall, and most of it is around the performance of Huller, and the screenplay. I see on Twitter people discussing the film a lot, and I just think it has the edge right now (and most pundits agree!)

1. Justine Triet and Arthur Harari, Anatomy of a Fall
2. David Hemingson, The Holdovers
3. Celine Song, Past Lives
4. Samy Burch, May December
5. Bradley Cooper and Josh Singer, Maestro

CINEMATOGRAPHY

The sheer variety of the camerawork in Oppenheimer, as well as its scale and the narrative around how important it is to the film, surely will give it the edge here. I think that if there is competition, it's the bravura weirdness of Poor Things: but that's just it, isn't it? It's weird. Too weird for some. Killers seems to be another candidate, but I just don't think it has the "wow" factor that these other two films have. El Conde won't be as seen as the others, and well, Maestro has had a difficult time lately.

1. Oppenheimer
2. Poor Things
3. Killers of the Flower Moon
4. El Conde
5. Maestro

EDITING 

Remember, kids: in this category, it's often "more editing" equals "best editing". The flashier the cuts, the more complex the overall story design, the more action sequences, the better the chance of winning. So the fact that the Best Picture front-runner pretty well has these things means that it will very likely pick this category up, easily.

1. Oppenheimer
2. Killers of the Flower Moon
3. Anatomy of a Fall
4. Poor Things
5. The Holdovers

PRODUCTION DESIGN

There is some very strong work this year in this category, but I think the general consensus is that it will go to the delightful Poor Things. Thank goodness, too, because I actually don't have it winning in any other category - and it's my favourite film of last year so far. However, Barbie is hot on its trail, because that was some spectacular work, too. (EDIT: And, in fact, Barbie leads on Gold Derby.)

1. Poor Things
2. Barbie
3. Oppenheimer
4. Killers of the Flower Moon
5. Napoleon

COSTUME DESIGN

Now, here's a race. It's a total toss-up for me: the dazzling plastic pop art of Barbie, or the dazzling poofy steampunk of Poor Things? I'll be switching between these two before Sunday night, I know, but at this point, I think it'll be Barbie for costumes, and Poor Things for production design. Or will it be the other way around? Ugh.

1. Barbie
2. Poor Things
3. Killers of the Flower Moon
4. Napoleon
5. Oppenheimer

MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

 This is supposedly Maestro's to lose, but there has also been controversy surrounding the film's makeup decisions... but that didn't stop The Whale last year. Poor Things is the spoiler, and it certainly has a good chance.

1. Maestro
2. Poor Things
3. Society of the Snow
4. Oppenheimer
5. Golda

SOUND

This is clearly Oppenheimer's to lose, despite the general accusations regarding Nolan's sound mixing being sometimes incomprehensible. It seems that the consensus is that Oppenheimer isn't nearly as bad as some of his other films, and is actually quite well done. But is it as well done as The Zone of Interest? Heck no. That film is defined by its sound design: we never see any of the atrocities, but we definitely hear them throughout. I think that this is more of a close race than what is generally thought.

1. Oppenheimer
2. The Zone of Interest
3. Maestro
4. Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One
5. The Creator

ORIGINAL SCORE

Another category to be swept by Oppenheimer, and I can't think of another film that is putting up much of a fight here: I'm actually having a difficult time determining the ranked order. It will be a simple "check" on voters' ballots.

1. Ludwig Goransson, Oppenheimer
2. Jerskin Fendrix, Poor Things
3. Laura Karpman, American Fiction
4. Robbie Robertson, Killers of the Flower Moon
5. John Williams, Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny

ORIGINAL SONG 

Now, which Barbie song will it be? "What Was I Made For?" has been the favourite all season, but there has been a groundswell behind "I'm Just Ken" recently. Lots of buzz around if Gosling will perform this at the ceremony. The other nominees are clearly just in for the ride.

1. What Was I Made For?, Barbie
2. I'm Just Ken, Barbie
3. Wahzhazhe (A Song for My People), Killers of the Flower Moon
4. The Fire Inside, Flamin' Hot
5. It Never Went Away, American Symphony

VISUAL EFFECTS

Now this is a heart-warming narrative: the team behind Godzilla Minus One has been everywhere and been a delight. They are a very small team, especially when compared to the hundreds of artists behind superhero fare, and I think there's enough goodwill to give them the Oscar. The Creator is the competition.

1. Godzilla Minus One
2. The Creator
3. Napoleon
4. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 3
5. Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One

ANIMATED FEATURE

This may be our last chance to award Miyazaki, and it's for a film that has made quite a wave. Spider-Man will have another chance.

 1. The Boy and the Heron
2. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-verse
3. Robot Dreams
4. Elemental
5. Nimona

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

This one seems to be an obvious winner to me, as it has quality and the good politics that the Academy loves to pat its back over. I'm not sure if I've seen anyone predict another winner here.

1. 20 Days in Mariupol
2. Four Daughters
3. Bobi Wine: The People's President
4. The Eternal Memory
5. To Kill a Tiger

INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

Another very obvious winner. As I said last year, no film that has been nominated for Best Picture has lost here.

1. The Zone of Interest (United Kingdom)
2. Society of the Snow (Spain)
3. Perfect Days (Japan)
4. The Teachers' Lounge (Germany)
5. Io Capitano (Italy)

ANIMATED SHORT

Letter to a Pig has been the clear favourite ever since the nominations were announced. War is Over! is considered to be the competition, but there's also the well-liked Ninety-Five Senses. Normally, these are very difficult categories to predict, but this year this one seems to be wrapped up.

1. Letter to a Pig
2. War is Over! Inspired By the Music of John & Yoko
3. Ninety-Five Senses
4. Our Uniform
5. Pachyderme

DOCUMENTARY SHORT

On the other hand, pundits are all over the place with this category. I haven't seen them and this sometimes makes it difficult to predict, especially when the experts don't know, either. The ABCs of Book Banning is the topical choice, but there's been some concerns about its accuracy (I've heard that the children were coached in their answers). I wouldn't be surprised if this goes to The Last Repair Shop, or Nai Nai and Wai Po. It seems that the other two nominees are also-rans.

1. The ABCs of Book Banning
2. The Last Repair Shop
3. Nai Nai and Wai Po
4. The Barber of Little Rock
5. Island in Between

LIVE ACTION SHORT

And here was have another very easy choice: it must be Wes Anderson. The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar is easily accessible on Netflix, is delightful, and it would be a chance to give an Oscar to Anderson.

1. The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar
2. Red White and Blue
3. The After
4. Invincible
4. Knight of Fortune

TALLY

Oppenheimer - 8 (Picture, Director, Lead Actor, Supp. Actor, Cinematography, Editing, Sound, Original Score)

Barbie -  3 (Adapted Screenplay, Costumes, Original Song)

 

Oscar Predictions 2023

 

I'm doing something a bit different this year for my predictions: I'm ranking every category instead of my usual 'Will Win' and 'Might Win', with the occasional 'Dark Horse' and 'If Hell Freezes Over'. I'm doing this because it seems that there are just so many categories this year that we really don't know how they will end up. Too many photo finishes for my liking when it comes to predictions, but oh boy, does it make for an exciting evening.

PICTURE
It's pretty much written in stone that Everything Everywhere All At Once is going to be the big winner on Sunday night, but I suppose the more interesting question is: do we have an old-fashioned sweep on our hands here? I think that if there are two films that will do well on the ranked ballot that just may--maybe--have a shot at an upset, it'll be Top Gun: Maverick and All Quiet on the Western Front. That being said, with wins at the DGA, SAG, PGA and WGA, EEAAO is most definitely the one to beat. But it is a strange film, perhaps too eagerly weird for some of the more conservative members of the Academy. I don't think even a few years ago it would have gone this far, as the Academy has been expanding to a more youthful and international membership in recent times.

1. Everything Everywhere All At Once
2. All Quiet on the Western Front
3. Top Gun: Maverick
4. The Banshees of Inisherin
5. The Fabelmans
6. TÁR
7. Elvis
8. Women Talking
9. Avatar: The Way of Water
10. Triangle of Sadness

DIRECTOR
The Daniels have done very well for themselves: who woulda thunk it over a year ago, when EEAAO debuted?

1. Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert, Everything Everywhere All At Once
2. Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin
3. Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans
4. Todd Field, TÁR
5. Ruben Östlund, Triangle of Sadness

ACTRESS
It comes down to a very tight race between Yeoh and Blanchett. I think, however, the fact that Blanchett already has two Oscars, and that Yeoh's narrative is very strong (we all want to see her win an Oscar, after all) will tip the favour to almighty ass-kicker Michelle. She won the SAG, too, meaning that she has the acting branch behind her. Blanchett's performance is pretty undeniable, however: a striking, momentous achievement. I mean, Yeoh is awesome in EEAAO, but Blanchett is simply amazing, with an all-timer of a performance. The rest of the women here are just in it for the ride.

1. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All At One
2. Cate Blanchett, TÁR
3. Ana de Armas, Blonde
4. Andrea Riseborough, To Leslie
5. Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans

ACTOR
I want to say that Fraser has a better story than Butler: a beloved actor that is experiencing a very well-deserved renaissance. But somehow, I think Butler will be the winner on Sunday. I'm certainly not comfortable in this prediction, as this is one of the "coin toss" categories of the night.

1. Austin Butler, Elvis
2. Brendan Fraser, The Whale
3. Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin
4. Bill Nighy, Living
5. Paul Mescal, Aftersun

SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Jamie Lee Curtis won the SAG, which would seemingly make her the front-runner... yet she is also considered by many to be the one weak performance among the nominees. I don't think she'll take it, but once again we have a category in flux: if not Curtis, then who? Will it be Angela Bassett, the Hollywood legend finally getting her due? Or Kerry Condon, a bright light in a very well-liked film that is probably not getting an Oscar otherwise? Heck, even Hsu has a shot. In the end, I believe it will be Condon Curtis Bassett. But maybe she peaked too early in the season, as both Condon and Curtis have had the recent momentum, with their BAFTA and SAG, respectively. Argh! I honestly don't know... except that Chau has no chance. Sorry.
Huh. You know what? If Bassett was going to win here, she would've won at SAG. Condon it is, then!

1. Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin
2. Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
3. Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All At Once
4. Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All At Once
5. Hong Chau, The Whale

SUPPORTING ACTOR
Ke Huy Quan has been sweeping the entire season, and I don't see that ending here.

1. Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All At Once
2. Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin
3. Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin
4. Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans
5. Brian Tyree Henry, Causeway

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Earlier in the season, it seemed that this was going to be McDonagh's to lose, with wins at the Globes and BAFTA... but then the EEAAO sweep began. I suspect that we are going to see another sweep on Sunday night, with the Daniels winning here, as they did with Critics Choice, Spirits and WGA (which Banshees was ineligible for).

1. Everything Everywhere All At Once
2. The Banshees of Inisherin
3. TÁR
4. The Fabelmans
5. Triangle of Sadness

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Quite the interesting set of nominees here, from chamber drama to blockbuster to murder mystery. We even have a Kurosawa remake, and a remake of an early Best Picture winner. Sarah Polley is the one to beat here for Women Talking.

1. Women Talking
2. All Quiet on the Western Front
3. Glass Onion
4. Top Gun: Maverick
5. Living

CINEMATOGRAPHY
I have no idea who is actually going to win the category. Not a one. Frankly, I can see arguments for all five. We have the master himself, Deakins with a Mendes-directed film, although certainly not a successful film. We have Khondji's film directed by Iñárritu, another not very successful yet beautiful film. I think these two are at the bottom. So that leaves three: Mandy Walker for Elvis, Florian Hoffmeister for TÁR, and James Friend for All Quiet. Of these, Hoffmeister might be the most deserving, if only slightly: but I think voters won't see it that way, as it's not very "showy", especially in still shots. I think it will come down to Elvis vs. All Quiet, and I somehow don't think we'll see the first woman (!!!) win in this category. I think the BAFTA winner will repeat here.

1. All Quiet on the Western Front
2. Elvis
3. TÁR
4. Empire of Light
5. Bardo

EDITING
Finally, a (relatively) easy category. Best Picture front-runner EEAAO should pick up a trophy here, with the spoiler being Top Gun. When the BAFTAs sent EEAAO home nearly empty-handed, it still rewarded the film's editing. That's gotta mean something.

1. Everything Everywhere All At Once
2. Top Gun: Maverick
3. Elvis
4. The Banshees of Inisherin
5. TÁR

PRODUCTION DESIGN
An interesting category, as I think there are a couple of stories that could happen here: award Catherine Martin, Baz Luhrmann's wife and two-time winner in this category for Moulin Rouge! and The Great Gatsby, with another award that will twin her likely win in Costumes. Tick, tick. Or, go for the impeccable work of Babylon, which despite its (many) flaws, is a design masterpiece. But will Academy voters want to reward that film at all? I'm not sure. I'm also not sure if All Quiet will be the crafts juggernaut on Sunday evening some are touting it to be, but it also has a chance here.

1. Elvis
2. Babylon
3. All Quiet on the Western Front
4. Avatar: The Way of Water
5. The Fabelmans

COSTUMES
Catherine Martin, two-time winner in this category for Moulin Rouge! and The Great Gatsby, should have an easy time here picking this up. Ruth Carter already won here for 2018's first Black Panther, and although there are some pretty darned impressive costumes in Wakanda Forever, I think Martin has the edge. That is, if Babylon doesn't spoil.

1. Elvis
2. Babylon
3. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
4. Everything Everywhere All At Once
5. Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris

MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
The lead acting winners and this category have been going hand-in-hand in recent years, so it's down to Elvis and The Whale.  This award happens earlier in the evening, and whoever wins here will likely take Actor. But Elvis is a Best Picture nominee, and The Whale isn't, and Elvis doesn't have charges of fatphobia going after it.

1. Elvis
2. The Whale
3. All Quiet on Western Front
4. The Batman
5. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

VISUAL EFFECTS
Easy peasy, lemon squeezy.

1. Avatar: The Way of Water
2. Top Gun: Maverick
3. All Quiet on the Western Front
4. The Batman
5. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

SOUND
Do they really want to send the blockbuster sensation of the year home empty-handed? Oh, do I mean Avatar or Top Gun? Well, Avatar has Visual Effects, so that means...

1. Top Gun: Maverick
2. Avatar: The Way of Water
3. Elvis
4. All Quiet on the Western Front
5. The Batman

ORIGINAL SCORE
This is probably the most difficult crafts category of the night to predict. Pundits are completely split. If we're going on sheer quality, it's gotta be Justin Hurwitz's Babylon. But as stated before, the film hasn't been entirely well-received. So maybe it will go to the anti-war epic All Quiet, which has a killer hook. Or will EEAAO sweep the night, and pick up another win here? As others have argued, no Best Picture nominee with nominations for both Score and Song has ever lost here. And then we have 91-year old legend John Williams waiting in the wings...

1. Babylon
2. All Quiet on the Western Front
3. Everything Everywhere All At Once
4. The Fabelmans
5. The Banshees of Inisherin

ORIGINAL SONG
This performance will bring down the house, and is the very likely winner.

1. "Naatu Naatu", RRR
2. "Hold My Hand", Top Gun: Maverick
3. "Lift Me Up", Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
4. "Applause", Tell It Like a Woman
5. "This is a Life", Everything Everywhere All At Once

INTERNATIONAL FEATURE
A film nominated here and in Best Picture has never lost in this category.

1. All Quiet on the Western Front (Germany)
2. Argentina, 1985 (Argentina)
3. EO (Poland)
4. Close (Belgium)
5. The Quiet Girl (Ireland)

ANIMATED FEATURE
Another easy peasy, lemon squeezy winner.

1. Pinocchio
2. Turning Red
3. Marcel the Shell With Shoes On
4. Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
5. The Sea Beast

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Nalvany has won the BAFTA and the PGA, a powerful combo, especially when it's for a film as topical as this one. Fire of Love may have the DGA and ACE, but I don't think it will topple Nalvany.

1. Nalvany
2. Fire of Love
3. All the Beauty and the Bloodshed
4. All That Breathes
5. A House Made of Splinters

ANIMATED SHORT
Strangely, and perhaps pathetically, a good title can make all the difference in the short categories, and there is no shortage here this year in the Animated Shorts. That's why some are saying that My Year of Dicks will win here. But Apple's campaign for the pleasant Boy, Mole, Fox and Horse has been huge, and it remains the most likely winner. Ice Merchants may win on sheer quality, though.

1. The Boy, The Mole, The Fox and the Horse
2. My Year of Dicks
3. Ice Merchants
4. The Flying Sailor
5. An Ostrich Told Me the World is Fake and I Think I Believe It

 DOCUMENTARY SHORT
Usually a crapshoot of sorts, but Malala Yousafzai's association with Stranger at the Gate may push it ahead. But how do you vote against wonderful elephants?

1. Stranger at the Gate
2. The Elephant Whisperers
3. How Do You Measure a Year?
4. The Martha Mitchell Effect
5. Haulout

LIVE ACTION SHORT
An Irish Goodbye has been touted as the thematic winner here, given the presence of Banshees and The Quiet Girl in this year's nominees. But I think the combination of Alice Rohrwacher (Happy as Lazzaro) and none other than Alfonso Cuarón will push Le Pupille to the stage.

1. Le Pupille
2. An Irish Goodbye
3. The Red Suitcase
4. Night Ride
5. Ivalu

TALLIES

6: Everything Everywhere All At Once
4: Elvis
2: All Quiet on the Western Front
1: Avatar: The Way of Water; Babylon; The Banshees of Inisherin; The Boy, The Mole, The Fox, and teh Horse; Nalvany; Pinocchio; Le Pupille; RRR; Stranger at the Gate; Top Gun: Maverick; Women Talking;