This is a kinda crazy, but I'm calling for three films to get 11+ nominations: Sinners with 15, One Battle After Another with 14, and Hamnet with 11. Also doing very well, thank you, are Marty Supreme, Frankenstein and Sentimental Value: the last one surprises me, because it was snubbed entirely by the Actor Awards (formerly SAG). This season has been dominated by these half dozen films, with other Oscar hopefuls lagging behind. The eventual winner of Best Picture will be one of those top three contenders, and I don't think it's as written in stone for Battle as much as others are predicting. I think PTA will definitely win Director, but Picture might be more of a, well, battle, especially if Sinners beats the nominations record with those 15 noms.
Best Picture
1. One Battle After Another
2. Sinners
3. Hamnet
4. Marty Supreme
5. Frankenstein
6. Sentimental Value
7. Bugonia
8. Train Dreams
9. The Secret Agent
10. It Was Just an Accident
11. F1
12. Wicked: For Good
13. Weapons
14. Avatar: Fire and Ash
15. Sorry, Baby
Director
The top three are very stable, but I find the next four contenders are really battling it out. Trier's film was snubbed--as I previously mentioned--at the Actor Awards, Safdie might be a bit too "out there", Panahi's film has fallen in the rankings, and Del Toro is here because of the strength of his film's crafts. I do think this category is ripe for surprises, though, as it is almost every year.
1. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another
2. Ryan Coogler, Sinners
3. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet
4. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value
5. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme
6. Guillermo Del Toro, Frankenstein
7. Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident
8. Kleber Mendonca Filho, The Secret Agent
9. Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia
10. Clint Bentley, Train Dreams
11. John M. Chu, Wicked: For Good
12. Park Chan-wook, No Other Choice
Actress
Another category that I think is in flux is this one, with Buckley being the only true 'safe' option. Byrne has swept the critic circles, yes, but this would be her film's only nomination. Reinsve was snubbed (I keep belabouring this point because I think it could really mean something in the end) at the Actors, while Stone has been picking up speed. The fifth slot could be newcomer Infiniti's, but it could just as easily be Hudson or Seyfried.
1. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet
2. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I'd Kick You
3. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value
4. Emma Stone, Bugonia
5. Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another
6. Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue
7. Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee
8. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good
9. Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love
10. Eva Victor, Sorry, Baby
Actor
The top 6 are stable; beyond that, I'd say only Edgerton has a remote chance of snagging a nomination. My gut says that Isaac is more likely than we think, but there's not much evidence to support this assertion. I do think that Moura is in a more precarious place than it seems, as is Jordan.
1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme
2. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another
3. Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon
4. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners
5. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent
6. Jesse Plemons, Bugonia
7. Joel Edgerton, Train Dreams
8. George Clooney, Jay Kelly
9. Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine
10. Lee Byung-hun, No Other Choice
11. Oscar Isaac, Frankenstein
Supporting Actress
This strikes me as a bit of a bloodbath of a category. I can see any of my top 8 making it in, and I don't think anyone is safe (except Teyana Taylor). I'm rooting for Madigan for the win, and horror has been doing a bit better lately with the Academy, meaning that Mosaku is also in the running. But beyond that? Lilleaas was snubbed (along with everyone else) at the Actor Awards (formerly the SAG Awards), Grande's film has tanked in contention, A'zion is not well known, and Paltrow still has the unspoken connection with a particular, now disgraced, producer that I think is actually making an impact.
1. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another
2. Amy Madigan, Weapons
3. Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners
4. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, Sentimental Value
5. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good
6. Odessa A'zion, Marty Supreme
7. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value
8. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme
9. Regina Hall, One Battle After Another
10. Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine
Supporting Actor
This is unusual: a category in which many of us are having difficulty filling out a top ten. The top five seem very stable, although Caton picking up an Actor Award nomination throwing a slight wrench into things. Sandler, Lindo, and Scott seem like distant runners in the race, and I'm just throwing my own opinion for the tenth slot.
1. Benicio Del Toro, One Battle After Another
2. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another
3. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value
4. Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein
5. Paul Mescal, Hamnet
6. Miles Caton, Sinners
7. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly
8. Delroy Lindo, Sinners
9. Andrew Scott, Blue Moon
10. Jack O'Connell, Sinners
Adapted Screenplay
Another safe top five.
1. One Battle After Another
2. Hamnet
3. Bugonia
4. Train Dreams
5. Frankenstein
6. No Other Choice
7. Wake Up Dead Man
8. Hedda
9. Nouvelle Vague
10. Wicked: For Good
Original Screenplay
Now here is a category that could reap some big surprises. Will Panahi be snubbed? Will Victor actually get nominated? The Secret Agent could either make a big splash tomorrow morning, or land with a thud. What about dark horse Weapons?
1. Sinners
2. Sentimental Value
3. Marty Supreme
4. It Was Just An Accident
5. Sorry, Baby
6. The Secret Agent
7. Blue Moon
8. Weapons
9. Jay Kelly
10. If I Had Legs I'd Kick You
Casting
A new category! Will this be just an award for 'best cast' or 'best ensemble', or will the craft of casting actually be taken quite seriously? I think Wicked's casting was inspired, but the film's disappointing reception may make an impact. Hamnet is actually a small cast, but it's a solid one--does that mean it gets in? Will the two Big Frontrunners of Sinners and One Battle After Another be a shoo-in here, or will the casting directors look elsewhere? This is a big question mark of a category, and it's exciting!
1. Sinners
2. One Battle After Another
3. Marty Supreme
4. Hamnet
5. Sentimental Value
6. The Secret Agent
7. Weapons
8. Wicked: For Good
9. Frankenstein
10. Sirat
Cinematography
1. Sinners
2. One Battle After Another
3. Train Dreams
4. Frankenstein
5. Hamnet
6. Marty Supreme
7. F1
8. Nouvelle Vague
9. Bugonia
10. Sirat
Editing
A very stable top five.
1. One Battle After Another
2. Marty Supreme
3. Sinners
4. F1
5. Hamnet
6. Sentimental Value
7. Frankenstein
8. Bugonia
9. No Other Choice
10. Sirat
Costume Design
The top four are locked in, but beyond that, this category often throws us a surprise or two. I suspect Hamnet may not be as strong as we think, and that Hedda or Spider Woman may be shockers.
1. Frankenstein
2. Wicked: For Good
3. Sinners
4. Hamnet
5. The Testament of Ann Lee
6. Marty Supreme
7. Hedda
8. One Battle After Another
9. The Secret Agent
10. Kiss of the Spider Woman
Production Design
I'm putting Avatar in the sixth spot, because I do think there's a bit of a backlash against digital production design. I'm also not confident in Hamnet or Marty Supreme here, though.
1. Frankenstein
2. Sinners
3. Wicked: For Good
4. Hamnet
5. Marty Supreme
6. Avatar: Fire and Ash
7. One Battle After Another
8. The Phoenician Scheme
9. The Testament of Ann Lee
10. The Fantastic Four: First Steps
Makeup & Hairstyling
I expect there to be a surprise here, maybe for The Ugly Stepsister.
1. Frankenstein
2. Sinners
3. Wicked: For Good
4. The Smashing Machine
5. One Battle After Another
6. The Ugly Stepsister
7. Marty Supreme
8. Kokuho
9. Nuremberg
10. The Alto Knights
Sound
A solid top five, with Sirat being the spoiler, I think.
1. F1
2. Sinners
3. One Battle After Another
4. Avatar: Fire and Ash
5. Wicked: For Good
6. Sirat
7. Frankenstein
8. Mission: Impossible - The Final Reckoning
9. Superman
10. Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere
Original Score
It would be cool to have a techno score nominated in Sirat, but I don't think that's actually going to happen!
1. Sinners
2. One Battle After Another
3. Hamnet
4. Frankenstein
5. Marty Supreme
6. Sirat
7. F1
8. Train Dreams
9. Tron: Ares
10. Bugonia
Original Song
This category is always a bit of a crapshoot... who will make it in? Please, not Warren!
1. "Golden", KPop Demon Hunters
2. "I Lied to You", Sinners
3. "The Girl in the Bubble", Wicked: For Good
4. "Dear Me", Diane Warren: Relentless
5. "Train Dreams", Train Dreams
6. "Last Time I Seen the Sun", Sinners
7. "Dream As One", Avatar: Fire and Ash
8. "No Place Like Home", Wicked: For Good
9. "Come See Me in the Good Light", Salt Then Sour Then Sweet
10. "Highest 2 Lowest", Highest 2 Lowest
Visual Effects
1. Avatar: Fire and Ash
2. F1
3. Superman
4. Wicked: For Good
5. Sinners
6. Frankenstein
7. The Lost Bus
8. Tron: Ares
9. Jurassic World Rebirth
10. The Electric State
International Feature
I think the top five is stable, but Tunisia's entry being the potential spoiler. The rest are along for the ride.
1. The Secret Agent (Brazil)
2. Sentimental Value (Norway)
3. It Was Just an Accident (France)
4. Sirat (Spain)
5. No Other Choice (South Korea)
6. The Voice of Hind Rajab (Tunisia)
7. Left Handed Girl (Taiwan)
8. Sound of Falling (Germany)
9. The President's Cake (Iraq)
10. Kokuho (Japan)
Animated Feature
Stable top four, but the rest are slugging it out.
1. KPop Demon Hunters
2. Zootopia 2
3. Arco
4. Elio
5. Little Amélie or the Character of Rain
6. Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba Infinity Castle
7. Scarlet
8. In Your Dreams
9. Chainsaw Man — The Movie: Reze Arc
10. The Bad Guys 2
Documentary Feature
I never know in this category, yet last year I got four!
1. 2000 Meters to Andriivka
2. The Perfect Neighbor
3. Cover-Up
4. The Alabama Solution
5. Apocalypse in the Tropics
6. My Undesirable Friends
7. Come See Me in the Good Light
8. Mr. Nobody Against Putin
9. Cutting Through Rocks
10. Coexistence, My Ass!
TALLIES
Fifteen: Sinners
Fourteen: One Battle After Another
Eleven: Hamnet
Eight: Frankenstein, Marty Supreme, Sentimental Value
Seven: Wicked: For Good
Four: Train Dreams
Three: Bugonia, F1, It Was Just an Accident, The Secret Agent
Two: Avatar: Fire and Ash, KPop Demon Hunters
One: The Alabama Solution, Apocalypse in the Tropics, 2000 Meters to Andriivka, Arco, Blue Moon, Cover Up, Diane Warren: Relentless, Elio, If I Had Legs I'd Kick You, Little Amélie or the Character of Rain, No Other Choice, The Perfect Neighbor, The Smashing Machine, Sirat, Sorry Baby, Superman, The Testament of Ann Lee, Weapons, Zootopia 2
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