What a weird year, with no real frontrunner currently racing ahead--very much unlike the last few seasons. The contenders for most nominations are The Brutalist, Conclave, and the divisive Emilia Pérez. Getting fewer nominations will be Anora, which has been swinging all season at the top of the list for me: but it's also quite the, ahem, "dirty picture". I don't think it will take the final prize after all.
A Complete Unknown is fittingly a big question here: it's seen a late-season surge, including a nomination at the DGA for Mangold, something no one really expected. On my mind is also The Last Showgirl, which may score two acting nominations, like it did at SAG. Two foreign pictures--other than Emilia Pérez--may make a splash on Thursday morning: All We Imagine as Light and The Seed of the Sacred Fig. Let's see how they do: they may get nothing, or just one.
You will notice that many of the categories have a quirk this year: top four "safe" slots, with a fifth that is a battle. This will certainly yield some surprises for us.
Best Picture
This top eight is very solid, but what about the last two spots? It's an all-out slugfest. Sing Sing was the frontrunner for the first part of the season, but it has really fallen out of the conversation. A Real Pain seems likely given Kieran Culkin's sweep of his category, and the film's likely screenplay nod. That leaves out Nickel Boys, which despite the acclaim, has not done all that well with the precursors and the guilds. September 5, on the other hand, got an important slot in the PGA top ten: but if it does make it in, it could be its only nomination, something we haven't seen since the 1940s.
1. Anora
2. The Brutalist
3. Conclave
4. Emilia Pérez
5. Wicked
6. A Complete Unknown
7. Dune: Part Two
8. The Substance
9. Sing Sing
10. A Real Pain
11. Nickel Boys
12. September 5
13. All We Imagine as Light
14. The Seed of the Sacred Fig
15. Challengers
Director
If there is a narrative forming for Best Picture, look here. If Mangold makes it in, A Complete Unknown may win it all. Villeneuve should make it in by all means, but he was snubbed for the first installation, too. If any of the top four miss, it's big trouble for these wannabe Best Picture winners. Fargeat seems to me to be the "surprise" (many are predicting her), but I would not rule out Kapadia or Rasoulof making an even bigger surprise here. I also could not leave out Chu, given the smash success of Wicked.
1. Brady Corbet, The Brutalist
2. Sean Baker, Anora
3. Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez
4. Edward Berger, Conclave
5. Coralie Fargeat, The Substance
6. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two
7. James Mangold, A Complete Unknown
8. RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys
9. Payal Kapadia, All We Imagine as Light
10. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig
11. John M. Chu, Wicked
Actress
The first four are safe, but it's that fifth position that many are debating. Will it be the Golden Globe-winning Torres (a winner there has never missed the Oscar nom)? Or the SAG-nominated Anderson? Or will it be the critical darling of Jean-Baptiste? Heck, even Jolie has a chance of pulling off a Kristen Stewart (Spencer) surprise.
1. Demi Moore, The Substance
2. Mikey Madison, Anora
3. Karla Sofia Gascon, Emilia Pérez
4. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked
5. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths
6. Fernanda Torres, I'm Still Here
7. Pamela Anderson, The Last Showgirl
8. Nicole Kidman, Babygirl
9. Angelina Jolie, Maria
10. Kate Winslet, Lee
Actor
These five have coagulated throughout the entire season, but there's always a surprise somewhere. Grant is well-liked, and Stan has two performances that are in the running. Still, it's difficult to not see at least this top four getting in, with Craig/Stan/Grant battling it out.
1. Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown
2. Adrien Brody, The Brutalist
3. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave
4. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing
5. Daniel Craig, Queer
6. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice
7. Hugh Grant, Heretic
8. Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain
9. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man
10. Glen Powell, Hit Man
Supporting Actress
Yet another category where the top four are "safe", with a smattering of others battling it out for the last position. Jamie Lee Curtis is well-liked in the industry and was nominated for the SAG (seemingly out of nowhere, with no real precursor action); Qualley has made a name for herself in a well-liked film; Deadwyler wants to make up for the snub from a few years ago for Till; Barbaro also got the SAG nom in a film that has been picking up speed; and Gomez... well, she's a big star in Emilia Pérez, which will likely be racking up the nominations. So who will it be?
1. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez
2. Ariana Grande, Wicked
3. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave
4. Felicity Jones, The Brutalist
5. Margaret Qualley, The Substance
6. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson
7. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys
8. Jamie Lee Curtis, The Last Showgirl
9. Monica Barbaro, A Complete Unknown
10. Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez
Supporting Actor
Culkin has been sweeping, and is one of the reasons why some are saying his film will get into Best Picture. I'm fairly confident in this top five: any beyond the top seven have really no chance of getting in. Yes, even SAG-nominated Jonathan Bailey, whom seemimgly no one saw coming.
1. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain
2. Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown
3. Guy Pearce, The Brutalist
4. Yura Borisov, Anora
5. Clerence Maclin, Sing Sing
6. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice
7. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II
8. Stanley Tucci, Conclave
9. Jonathan Bailey, Wicked
10. Mark Eydelshteyn, Anora
Adapted Screenplay
I think that A Complete Unknown's rise will displace Dune: Part Two. This one seems ripe for surprises, though.
1. Conclave
2. Emilia Pérez
3. Sing Sing
4. Nickel Boys
5. A Complete Unknown
6. Dune: Part Two
7. Wicked
8. Hit Man
9. Nosferatu
10. I'm Still Here
Original Screenplay
Lo! And behold: another instance of the game "What will make that fifth position?" I think it will be the well-liked Challengers by Justin Kuritzkes, but others are saying it will be September 5, which has picked up a PGA nom. Foreign works by Kapadia and Rasoulof also look promising to me, and we cannot forget that Mike Leigh is very popular among writers.
1. Anora
2. The Brutalist
3. The Substance
4. A Real Pain
5. Challengers
6. September 5
7. Hard Truths
8. All We Imagine as Light
9. The Seed of the Sacred Fig
10. Kneecap
Cinematography
The ASC nominated--get this--seven films this year, and The Brutalist wasn't one of them. Should I be not suggesting this as number one, then? I think this is another category in flux with a lot of great potential nominees, so it's difficult to name only five.
1. The Brutalist
2. Nosferatu
3. Dune: Part Two
4. Conclave
5. Nickel Boys
6. Wicked
7. Maria
8. Emilia Pérez
9. A Complete Unknown
10. The Girl With the Needle
Editing
I'm fairly confident in these top five, and expect Best Picture to eventually be one of these.
1. Conclave
2. Anora
3. Emilia Pérez
4. Dune: Part Two
5. The Brutalist
6. Challengers
7. A Complete Unknown
8. Wicked
9. September 5
10. Nickel Boys
Costume Design
This category seems to be complete chaos this year. Will A Complete Unknown make it in, given its meteoric rise lately? But what will it bump out? Will Blitz follow the BAFTA nod? What about beloved Colleen Atwood's work on Tim Burton's latest?
1. Nosferatu
2. Wicked
3. Gladiator II
4. Dune: Part Two
5. Conclave
6. Maria
7. Blitz
8. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice
9. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga
10. A Complete Unknown
Production Design
Another top four "safe" bets, with three battling it out for that fifth spot.
1. The Brutalist
2. Nosferatu
3. Dune: Part Two
4. Wicked
5. Conclave
6. Gladiator II
7. A Complete Unknown
8. Blitz
9. Maria
10. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice
Makeup & Hairstyling
It seems to me that Dune: Part Two has been sinking quite a bit lately; will underdog A Different Man rise to the top five?
1. The Substance
2. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice
3. Wicked
4. Nosferatu
5. Dune: Part Two
6. A Different Man
7. Emilia Pérez
8. The Apprentice
9. Waltzing with Brando
10. Maria
Sound
This category... man, it threw some surprises this year when the shortlist came out. I thought, for example, that Conclave was a shoo-in. I guess not!
1. Dune: Part Two
2. Wicked
3. A Complete Unknown
4. Gladiator II
5. Emilia Pérez
6. Deadpool and Wolverine
7. Alien: Romulus
8. Blitz
9. Joker: Folie a Deux
10. The Wild Robot
Original Score
I'm fairly confident in this category, but perhaps Wicked will indeed make it in.
1. Emilia Pérez
2. The Brutalist
3. Conclave
4. The Wild Robot
5. Challengers
6. Wicked
7. Gladiator II
8. Nosferatu
9. Sing Sing
10. The Room Next Door
Original Song
This, on the other hand, is truly chaos. I really don't know how to make heads or tails of this besides the top three.
1. "El Mal", Emilia Pérez
2. "Mi Camino", Emilia Pérez
3. "Kiss the Sky", The Wild Robot
4. "Compress/Repress", Challengers
5. "Haper and Will Go West", Will & Harper
6. "The Journey", The Six Triple Eight
7. "Never Too Late", Elton John: Never Too Late
8. "Like a Bird", Sing Sing
9. "Piece by Piece", Piece by Piece
10. "Sick in the Head", Kneecap
Visual Effects
The top three seem very safe to me--yes, that makes two ape films--but I think that Twisters will actually get in, despite what I'm listing here.
1. Dune: Part Two
2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes
3. Better Man
4. Gladiator II
5. Wicked
6. Twisters
7. Mufasa: The Lion King
8. Civil War
9. Alien: Romulus
10. Deadpool & Wolverine
International Feature
Another slug-fest is happening here. Besides the top three listed here, this category could go anywhere. I somehow think that the Thai entry will sneak in, above the more likely entries here.
1. Emilia Pérez (France)
2. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (Germany)
3. I'm Still Here (Brazil)
4. Kneecap (Ireland)
5. The Girl With the Needle (Denmark)
6. Flow (Latvia)
7. Vermiglio (Italy)
8. Universal Language (Canada)
9. How to Make Millions Before Grandma Dies (Thailand)
10. Dahomey (Senegal)
11. From Ground Zero (Palestine)
Animated Feature
Will it be Memoir of a Snail, or Moana 2? I think the quirky feature will take precedence over the blockbuster.
1. The Wild Robot
2. Flow
3. Inside Out 2
4. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl
5. Memoir of a Snail
6. Moana 2
7. Piece by Piece
8. Chicken for Linda!
9. Transformers One
10. Kung Fu Panda 4
Documentary Feature
Complete and utter crap shoot here. I have no idea what's going on in this category.
1. No Other Land
2. Dahomey
3. Porcelain War
4. Sugarcane
5. Black Box Diaries
6. The Remarkable Life of Ibelin
7. Daughters
8. Will & Harper
9. Queendom
10. Soundtrack of a Coup d'Etat
Also in Contention: Eno; Hollywoodgate; Frida; Union; The Bibi Files
TALLIES
So it seems that Emilia Pérez will lead the way, with The Brutalist and Conclave closely behind. The fact that we may have five films with eight or more nominations each is actually kind of astounding, and shows how much the season has solidified around eight or so films. Quite the number of single-nom films, though!
Eleven: Emilia Pérez
Ten: The Brutalist, Conclave
Eight: Dune: Part Two, Wicked
Six: Anora, The Substance
Five: A Complete Unknown
Four: Nosferatu, Sing Sing
Three: A Real Pain, Challengers, Gladiator II, The Wild Robot
Two: Nickel Boys
One: Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, Better Man, Black Box Diaries, Dahomey, Flow, The Girl with the Needle, Hard Truths, Inside Out 2, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Kneecap, Memoir of a Snail, No Other Land, Porcelain War, Queer, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, Sugarcane Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, Will & Harper,
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