Oscar Predictions 2020

Best Picture

This is a fascinating year to watch because it's been so much in flux. It started off with Parasite winning the Palme d'Or at Cannes, with Once Upon a Time in Hollywood being a well-liked competitor. For a while there it looked like The Irishman was going to play a major threat for multiple awards, but then it fizzled. Joker came and lead the nominations, but never really seemed like a Best Picture winner. Instead, we had 1917 debuting at the end of the season, and well, it's been the frontrunner ever since the Globes. Does that mean it will win? I think so, at the end of the day, but will it sweep? Ah, that's the question. It's a (war) epic, one of which hasn't won since 2003's LotR, and we haven't seen a real sweep since 2008's Slumdog Millionaire. Will this year recall the 90s with its epic sweeps? Or will Parasite get the all-important Screenplay win and eek its way to Best Picture glory? Hmm! I think we'll see 1917 reign supreme and win six Oscars, but this is a very competitive year.

Most Likely: 1917
Could Win: Parasite


Director

The BAFTAs, DGA, CC and Globes all went with Sam Mendes, but his biggest competition is Bong Joon-ho's excellent work on the South Korean smash Parasite.

Will Win: Sam Mendes, 1917

Could Win: Bong Joon-ho, Parasite


Actress

Zellweger has been truly sweeping the season, along with the other three acting frontrunners -- but somehow I feel that she's the weakest of the four. This is one of Judy's only two nominations (missing out on some technical nominations that it seemed it could have made it in for, like costumes), wasn't that big of a hit, and some have accused the performance as being little more than mimicry. Fabulous mimicry. Theron seems to be the threat here with her performance in Bombshell, but I feel it's double-nominee Johansson that could take it here.

Will Win: Renée Zellweger, Judy
Could Win: Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story


Actor

Phoenix has been a phenomenon this year, and I don't see him losing on Sunday. Driver is probably the dark horse, but it's very unlikely this is going to anyone else other than Phoenix.

Will Win: Joaquin Phoenix, Joker
Could Win: Adam Driver, Marriage Story


Supporting Actress

If the season's track record is any indication, Dern, a high-standing member of the Academy and well-liked by her peers, will finally get her Oscar. I can see arguments for everyone else (other than Bates, who is is in it for the ride) being an upset, but I'd go with Pugh for the dark horse position.

Will Win: Laura Dern, Marriage Story
Could Win: Florence Pugh, Little Women


Supporting Actor

There's no competition here. It's Pitt all the way. Pesci may be a distant second.

Will Win: Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Could Win: Joe Pesci, The Irishman


Original Screenplay


In recent years, it's been the Screenplay categories, not Directing, that have been the forebears of the Best Picture Oscar. We've seen it for Green Book, Moonlight, Spotlight, and Argo, who went without Directing wins to the big one. So it'll be interesting to see who wins these categories earlier in the night, as they will tell us who's probably going home with Best Picture.

In Original Screenplay, it might be Tarantino's third win for his well-liked Once Upon a Time in Hollywood. But that film has a small chance of winning Picture. So it might go Parasite. If Parasite does indeed win here, there's a bigger chance for it to take Picture. 1917 has not been praised for its screenplay, but if it somehow manages to win here, it's going full-sweep. So there's three major possibilities, as far as I can see: Tarantino wins here and 1917 wins Picture; Parasite wins here and goes on for Picture; or Parasite wins here yet loses to the Directorial achievement that is 1917 for Picture. It'll be very interesting to see who wins.

Will Win: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Could Win: Parasite


Adapted Screenplay

Unlike the Original category this year, I don't see any of the nominees being real threats to win Picture. Some have been suggesting that Jojo Rabbit has been screening very well with the Academy, and Jojo Rabbit has been winning in this category lately, with both BAFTA and WGA wins. I think its main competition is Gerwig's Little Women adaptation, which has been thoroughly praised. The other three aren't real players here, but if there's a category this year that could see a surprise, I think it's this one.


Will Win: Jojo Rabbit
Could Win: Little Women


Editing

The flashy achievement of Ford v Ferrari is up against the clever cutting of Parasite. Schoonmaker's editing for The Irishman could be up for consideration if her film wasn't a draggy 209 minutes, so I don't see her winning another Oscar this year. I think it's FvF's to lose, as voters often think that most editing equals best editing, although it really is an exciting film to watch. If Parasite wins here and in Screenplay, watch out for the big prize at the end of the night.

Will Win: Ford v Ferrari
Could Win: Parasite


Cinematography

Deakins, after so many years and amazing films only winning his first Oscar for Blade Runner 2049, will win his second for his rousing achievement in 1917. I think this has been a good year for the category (minus the derivative Scorsese-knockoff of Joker), but I'm comfortable with Deakins being a two-time winner for Cinematography. His competition is probably Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, but I think this is one of the easiest categories of the night to predict.

Will Win: 1917
Could Win: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood


Production Design

Mendes' film is up against Tarantino's here, and I think they'll go with Hollywood, although I'm not entirely comfortable with that decision. Parasite has been in the conversation, too, but I think the work is too subtle to pick up the trophy. If 1917 sweeps, then this will be an easy win for it. In the end, I go with...

Will Win: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Could Win: 1917


Costume Design

Big floofy dresses often win here, even if costume designers often say themselves that period pieces are actually easier to design than more modern films. The favourite to win is thus Little Women, although Hollywood and Jojo Rabbit's designs are equally, if not more, impressive. I'll still go with the BAFTA winner though.

Will Win: Little Women
Could Win: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood


Makeup and Hairstyling


Big hair? Big winner! I think it's going Bombshell on us this year, although I can see arguments for all five films. I just hope it's not Joker.

Will Win: Bombshell
Could Win: Judy


Original Score

It seems to be first-time nominee Hildur Guðnadóttir's cello based score to be the frontrunner, and even though I didn't like the film particularly, I think this was its best element. The competition is Newman's 1917, which is a big and loud work. If 1917 is sweeping, here's an easy win for it.

Will Win: Joker
Could Win: 1917


Original Song

The odds are working for Elton John to win again for Rocketman, but I've seen some murmurings of "Stand Up" from Harriet being well-received. Smart money is still on Elton.

Will Win: "I'm Gonna Love Me Again", Rocketman
Could Win: "Stand Up", Harriet


Sound Mixing

Given that we have four Best Picture nominees in the category this year, we can't rely on the usual rule that it's the Picture nominee that will win. 1917 has been the most likely to win, but I also think that Ford v Ferrari has a very good shot, as well.

Will Win: 1917
Could Win: Ford v Ferrari


Sound Editing

Will Win: 1917
Could Win: Ford v Ferrari


Visual Effects

Four films have been in the conversation: 1917 for its practical and digital effects, Avengers for being the franchise's first winner, The Irishman for its age-defying effects, and the photo-realism of The Lion King. My guess is that 1917 will have somewhat of a sweep on Sunday, and will pick this one up.

Will Win: 1917
Could Win: Avengers: Endgame


Animated Feature

Toy Story 4 should have been an easy winner, but it's been facing stiff competition from Klaus and Missing Link. I still think Pixar will come out on top, but don't count out these other two.

Will Win: Toy Story 4
Could Win: Klaus


International Film

Parasite seems to be the very easy winner here.

Will Win: Parasite (South Korea)
Could Win: Pain and Glory (Spain)


Documentary Feature

American Factory has established itself as the frontrunner, but I wouldn't count out Honeyland or For Sama, the former being nominated in International as well.

Will Win: American Factory
Could Win: For Sama


Animated Short

I'm hopefully seeing these on Thursday, but Hair Love has been touted as the one to beat here. Also look out for Kitbull or even Sister.


Will Win: Hair Love
Could Win: Sister


Documentary Short

Going with my gut, and for the awesome title.


Will Win: Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone (If You're a Girl)
Could Win: St Louis Superman


Live Action Short

As per usual, I'm at a total loss here -- but experts are picking Brotherhood, so...

Will Win: Brotherhood
Could Win: The Neighbour's Widow


Picture: 1917
Director: Mendes, 1917
Actress: Zellweger, Judy
Actor: Phoenix, Joker
Supporting Actress: Dern, Marriage Story
Supporting Actor: Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Original Screenplay: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Adapted Screenplay: Jojo Rabbit
Editing: Ford v Ferrari
Cinematography: 1917
Production Design: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Costume Design: Little Women
Makeup and Hairstyling: Bombshell
Score: Joker
Song: "I'm Gonna Love Me Again", Rocketman
Sound Mixing: 1917
Sound Editing: 1917
Visual Effects: 1917
Animated Feature: Toy Story 4
Foreign Language: Parasite
Documentary Feature: American Factory
Animated Short: Hair Love
Documentary Short: Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone (If You're a Girl)
Live Action Short: Brotherhood

Tallies
6 - 1917
3 - Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
2 - Joker