Oscar Predictions 2024

 

This year has some very predictable races - and some very close ones, too. Oppenheimer is looking to have a sweep: I'm predicting it will win eight awards, but it may even be nine if it wins for its screenplay. But some of these categories are very, very competitive: will Barbie or Poor Things win in Costumes and Production design? No one is all that confident in their predictions there. And what about Lead Actress? It's a coin-toss at this point between Lily Gladstone and Emma Stone. The Battle of the Stones, it can be called. 

I'm actually playing it safe this year, which is somewhat unusual for me: I'm going with almost entirely consensus choices, except in one category, Adapted Screenplay. There I suspect that Barbie will be the 'surprise' winner. Otherwise? I'm not confident in any other bolder choices.

So, let's begin!

PICTURE

If you thought last year's Everything Everywhere All At Once was a front-runner, oh boy! Oppenheimer has this in the bag. I'm not even sure what could dethrone it at this point. Yes, Poor Things is amazing, but it will also be too weird for voters. The Holdovers was a potential upset like a month ago, but I feel that the film has declined in buzz from the beginning of the season. The film that I've heard people talk about a lot is actually Anatomy of a Fall: I think that it will do well on the ranked ballots - but well enough? No. Another film that may do well on the ranked ballot is American Fiction, but I also don't think it will be an upset.

1. Oppenheimer
2. Poor Things
3. The Holdovers
4. Anatomy of a Fall
5. Barbie
6. American Fiction
7. Killers of the Flower Moon
8. The Zone of Interest
9. Past Lives
10. Maestro

DIRECTING 

Why bother writing something up when we all know my personal favourite (/s), Christoper Nolan, has been completely sweeping the season? Lanthimos I think has the best chance to put up a fight, and despite all the pundits placing her last, I think Triet could be the spoiler.

1. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer
2. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things
3. Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall
4. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon
5. Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest

ACTRESS

Now, we know that Hollywood loves a "narrative" when it comes to its awards. Lily Gladstone not only gave an amazing performance, but she will be the first Indigenous actor to win an Oscar -- that is, if Emma Stone's undeniably even more amazing performance pulls it off. This is one of the nail-biter awards of the night. Gladstone wasn't nominated for the BAFTA (a huge hurdle to overcome) yet won the SAG, but she also has a role that could have easily been placed in the supporting category instead of lead. I don't think that will be her undoing, and Stone already has an Oscar, but damn... that performance of Stone's is an all-timer.

1. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon
2. Emma Stone, Poor Things
3. Sandra Huller, Anatomy of a Fall
4. Annette Bening, Nyad
5. Carey Mulligan, Maestro

ACTOR

Cillian Murphy is so central to the success of Oppenheimer that I think it will be difficult for voters to award anyone else the Oscar. Giamatti had the edge only a month ago, but as I've said above, his film has lost some of the buzz.

1. Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer
2. Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers
3. Bradley Cooper, Maestro
4. Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction
5. Colman Domingo, Rustin

SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Da'Vine Joy Randolph has been sweeping the season, and I think for good reason. It's a great performance in a well-loved film, and she has been a gracious winner throughout the season. I think that Blunt has a huge uphill fight to beat Randolph.

1. Da'Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers
2. Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer
3. America Ferrera, Barbie
4. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple
5. Jodie Foster, Nyad

SUPPORTING ACTOR

After like a decade plus of doing superhero fare, Downey broke free and showed us that yes, he can act. But I really want to see Gosling win here, I really do. He was the highlight of his film for me - but that was the problem, apparently, if you listened to Film Twitter. To have Barbie's only acting win be for a man is ~problematic~. I think that will be the undoing of him, unfortunately. But what a stacked category this year, I must say!

1. Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer
2. Ryan Gosling, Barbie
3. Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things
4. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon
5. Sterling K. Brown, American Fiction

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY 

Some pundits are saying that this is American Fiction's to lose, and I'm not sure I agree. You have it competing here with two of the biggest movies of the year: one that is set to sweep the Oscars, and the other that has been praised for its screenplay and has a swell of good-cheer for it to win some awards after two high-profile apparent "snubs". They are Oppenheimer and Barbie, and I think of the two, it will be Barbie that will win this award. Oppenheimer strikes me as more of a directing and acting showcase than for its writing, while Barbie is a feat of taking things down the untraveled road: it's unexpected. I did not particularly care for this road, but I know many, many people did. And so, my first non-consensus choice is:

1. Greta Gerwig and Noah Baumbach, Barbie
2. Cord Jefferson, American Fiction
3. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer
4. Tony McNamara, Poor Things
5. Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

If the Oscars were a month earlier, this would be The Holdovers all the way. But there has been a swell of interest for the Cannes-winning Anatomy of a Fall, and most of it is around the performance of Huller, and the screenplay. I see on Twitter people discussing the film a lot, and I just think it has the edge right now (and most pundits agree!)

1. Justine Triet and Arthur Harari, Anatomy of a Fall
2. David Hemingson, The Holdovers
3. Celine Song, Past Lives
4. Samy Burch, May December
5. Bradley Cooper and Josh Singer, Maestro

CINEMATOGRAPHY

The sheer variety of the camerawork in Oppenheimer, as well as its scale and the narrative around how important it is to the film, surely will give it the edge here. I think that if there is competition, it's the bravura weirdness of Poor Things: but that's just it, isn't it? It's weird. Too weird for some. Killers seems to be another candidate, but I just don't think it has the "wow" factor that these other two films have. El Conde won't be as seen as the others, and well, Maestro has had a difficult time lately.

1. Oppenheimer
2. Poor Things
3. Killers of the Flower Moon
4. El Conde
5. Maestro

EDITING 

Remember, kids: in this category, it's often "more editing" equals "best editing". The flashier the cuts, the more complex the overall story design, the more action sequences, the better the chance of winning. So the fact that the Best Picture front-runner pretty well has these things means that it will very likely pick this category up, easily.

1. Oppenheimer
2. Killers of the Flower Moon
3. Anatomy of a Fall
4. Poor Things
5. The Holdovers

PRODUCTION DESIGN

There is some very strong work this year in this category, but I think the general consensus is that it will go to the delightful Poor Things. Thank goodness, too, because I actually don't have it winning in any other category - and it's my favourite film of last year so far. However, Barbie is hot on its trail, because that was some spectacular work, too. (EDIT: And, in fact, Barbie leads on Gold Derby.)

1. Poor Things
2. Barbie
3. Oppenheimer
4. Killers of the Flower Moon
5. Napoleon

COSTUME DESIGN

Now, here's a race. It's a total toss-up for me: the dazzling plastic pop art of Barbie, or the dazzling poofy steampunk of Poor Things? I'll be switching between these two before Sunday night, I know, but at this point, I think it'll be Barbie for costumes, and Poor Things for production design. Or will it be the other way around? Ugh.

1. Barbie
2. Poor Things
3. Killers of the Flower Moon
4. Napoleon
5. Oppenheimer

MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

 This is supposedly Maestro's to lose, but there has also been controversy surrounding the film's makeup decisions... but that didn't stop The Whale last year. Poor Things is the spoiler, and it certainly has a good chance.

1. Maestro
2. Poor Things
3. Society of the Snow
4. Oppenheimer
5. Golda

SOUND

This is clearly Oppenheimer's to lose, despite the general accusations regarding Nolan's sound mixing being sometimes incomprehensible. It seems that the consensus is that Oppenheimer isn't nearly as bad as some of his other films, and is actually quite well done. But is it as well done as The Zone of Interest? Heck no. That film is defined by its sound design: we never see any of the atrocities, but we definitely hear them throughout. I think that this is more of a close race than what is generally thought.

1. Oppenheimer
2. The Zone of Interest
3. Maestro
4. Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One
5. The Creator

ORIGINAL SCORE

Another category to be swept by Oppenheimer, and I can't think of another film that is putting up much of a fight here: I'm actually having a difficult time determining the ranked order. It will be a simple "check" on voters' ballots.

1. Ludwig Goransson, Oppenheimer
2. Jerskin Fendrix, Poor Things
3. Laura Karpman, American Fiction
4. Robbie Robertson, Killers of the Flower Moon
5. John Williams, Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny

ORIGINAL SONG 

Now, which Barbie song will it be? "What Was I Made For?" has been the favourite all season, but there has been a groundswell behind "I'm Just Ken" recently. Lots of buzz around if Gosling will perform this at the ceremony. The other nominees are clearly just in for the ride.

1. What Was I Made For?, Barbie
2. I'm Just Ken, Barbie
3. Wahzhazhe (A Song for My People), Killers of the Flower Moon
4. The Fire Inside, Flamin' Hot
5. It Never Went Away, American Symphony

VISUAL EFFECTS

Now this is a heart-warming narrative: the team behind Godzilla Minus One has been everywhere and been a delight. They are a very small team, especially when compared to the hundreds of artists behind superhero fare, and I think there's enough goodwill to give them the Oscar. The Creator is the competition.

1. Godzilla Minus One
2. The Creator
3. Napoleon
4. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 3
5. Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One

ANIMATED FEATURE

This may be our last chance to award Miyazaki, and it's for a film that has made quite a wave. Spider-Man will have another chance.

 1. The Boy and the Heron
2. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-verse
3. Robot Dreams
4. Elemental
5. Nimona

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

This one seems to be an obvious winner to me, as it has quality and the good politics that the Academy loves to pat its back over. I'm not sure if I've seen anyone predict another winner here.

1. 20 Days in Mariupol
2. Four Daughters
3. Bobi Wine: The People's President
4. The Eternal Memory
5. To Kill a Tiger

INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

Another very obvious winner. As I said last year, no film that has been nominated for Best Picture has lost here.

1. The Zone of Interest (United Kingdom)
2. Society of the Snow (Spain)
3. Perfect Days (Japan)
4. The Teachers' Lounge (Germany)
5. Io Capitano (Italy)

ANIMATED SHORT

Letter to a Pig has been the clear favourite ever since the nominations were announced. War is Over! is considered to be the competition, but there's also the well-liked Ninety-Five Senses. Normally, these are very difficult categories to predict, but this year this one seems to be wrapped up.

1. Letter to a Pig
2. War is Over! Inspired By the Music of John & Yoko
3. Ninety-Five Senses
4. Our Uniform
5. Pachyderme

DOCUMENTARY SHORT

On the other hand, pundits are all over the place with this category. I haven't seen them and this sometimes makes it difficult to predict, especially when the experts don't know, either. The ABCs of Book Banning is the topical choice, but there's been some concerns about its accuracy (I've heard that the children were coached in their answers). I wouldn't be surprised if this goes to The Last Repair Shop, or Nai Nai and Wai Po. It seems that the other two nominees are also-rans.

1. The ABCs of Book Banning
2. The Last Repair Shop
3. Nai Nai and Wai Po
4. The Barber of Little Rock
5. Island in Between

LIVE ACTION SHORT

And here was have another very easy choice: it must be Wes Anderson. The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar is easily accessible on Netflix, is delightful, and it would be a chance to give an Oscar to Anderson.

1. The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar
2. Red White and Blue
3. The After
4. Invincible
4. Knight of Fortune

TALLY

Oppenheimer - 8 (Picture, Director, Lead Actor, Supp. Actor, Cinematography, Editing, Sound, Original Score)

Barbie -  3 (Adapted Screenplay, Costumes, Original Song)

 

Oscar Predictions 2023

 

I'm doing something a bit different this year for my predictions: I'm ranking every category instead of my usual 'Will Win' and 'Might Win', with the occasional 'Dark Horse' and 'If Hell Freezes Over'. I'm doing this because it seems that there are just so many categories this year that we really don't know how they will end up. Too many photo finishes for my liking when it comes to predictions, but oh boy, does it make for an exciting evening.

PICTURE
It's pretty much written in stone that Everything Everywhere All At Once is going to be the big winner on Sunday night, but I suppose the more interesting question is: do we have an old-fashioned sweep on our hands here? I think that if there are two films that will do well on the ranked ballot that just may--maybe--have a shot at an upset, it'll be Top Gun: Maverick and All Quiet on the Western Front. That being said, with wins at the DGA, SAG, PGA and WGA, EEAAO is most definitely the one to beat. But it is a strange film, perhaps too eagerly weird for some of the more conservative members of the Academy. I don't think even a few years ago it would have gone this far, as the Academy has been expanding to a more youthful and international membership in recent times.

1. Everything Everywhere All At Once
2. All Quiet on the Western Front
3. Top Gun: Maverick
4. The Banshees of Inisherin
5. The Fabelmans
6. TÁR
7. Elvis
8. Women Talking
9. Avatar: The Way of Water
10. Triangle of Sadness

DIRECTOR
The Daniels have done very well for themselves: who woulda thunk it over a year ago, when EEAAO debuted?

1. Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert, Everything Everywhere All At Once
2. Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin
3. Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans
4. Todd Field, TÁR
5. Ruben Östlund, Triangle of Sadness

ACTRESS
It comes down to a very tight race between Yeoh and Blanchett. I think, however, the fact that Blanchett already has two Oscars, and that Yeoh's narrative is very strong (we all want to see her win an Oscar, after all) will tip the favour to almighty ass-kicker Michelle. She won the SAG, too, meaning that she has the acting branch behind her. Blanchett's performance is pretty undeniable, however: a striking, momentous achievement. I mean, Yeoh is awesome in EEAAO, but Blanchett is simply amazing, with an all-timer of a performance. The rest of the women here are just in it for the ride.

1. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All At One
2. Cate Blanchett, TÁR
3. Ana de Armas, Blonde
4. Andrea Riseborough, To Leslie
5. Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans

ACTOR
I want to say that Fraser has a better story than Butler: a beloved actor that is experiencing a very well-deserved renaissance. But somehow, I think Butler will be the winner on Sunday. I'm certainly not comfortable in this prediction, as this is one of the "coin toss" categories of the night.

1. Austin Butler, Elvis
2. Brendan Fraser, The Whale
3. Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin
4. Bill Nighy, Living
5. Paul Mescal, Aftersun

SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Jamie Lee Curtis won the SAG, which would seemingly make her the front-runner... yet she is also considered by many to be the one weak performance among the nominees. I don't think she'll take it, but once again we have a category in flux: if not Curtis, then who? Will it be Angela Bassett, the Hollywood legend finally getting her due? Or Kerry Condon, a bright light in a very well-liked film that is probably not getting an Oscar otherwise? Heck, even Hsu has a shot. In the end, I believe it will be Condon Curtis Bassett. But maybe she peaked too early in the season, as both Condon and Curtis have had the recent momentum, with their BAFTA and SAG, respectively. Argh! I honestly don't know... except that Chau has no chance. Sorry.
Huh. You know what? If Bassett was going to win here, she would've won at SAG. Condon it is, then!

1. Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin
2. Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
3. Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All At Once
4. Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All At Once
5. Hong Chau, The Whale

SUPPORTING ACTOR
Ke Huy Quan has been sweeping the entire season, and I don't see that ending here.

1. Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All At Once
2. Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin
3. Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin
4. Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans
5. Brian Tyree Henry, Causeway

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Earlier in the season, it seemed that this was going to be McDonagh's to lose, with wins at the Globes and BAFTA... but then the EEAAO sweep began. I suspect that we are going to see another sweep on Sunday night, with the Daniels winning here, as they did with Critics Choice, Spirits and WGA (which Banshees was ineligible for).

1. Everything Everywhere All At Once
2. The Banshees of Inisherin
3. TÁR
4. The Fabelmans
5. Triangle of Sadness

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Quite the interesting set of nominees here, from chamber drama to blockbuster to murder mystery. We even have a Kurosawa remake, and a remake of an early Best Picture winner. Sarah Polley is the one to beat here for Women Talking.

1. Women Talking
2. All Quiet on the Western Front
3. Glass Onion
4. Top Gun: Maverick
5. Living

CINEMATOGRAPHY
I have no idea who is actually going to win the category. Not a one. Frankly, I can see arguments for all five. We have the master himself, Deakins with a Mendes-directed film, although certainly not a successful film. We have Khondji's film directed by Iñárritu, another not very successful yet beautiful film. I think these two are at the bottom. So that leaves three: Mandy Walker for Elvis, Florian Hoffmeister for TÁR, and James Friend for All Quiet. Of these, Hoffmeister might be the most deserving, if only slightly: but I think voters won't see it that way, as it's not very "showy", especially in still shots. I think it will come down to Elvis vs. All Quiet, and I somehow don't think we'll see the first woman (!!!) win in this category. I think the BAFTA winner will repeat here.

1. All Quiet on the Western Front
2. Elvis
3. TÁR
4. Empire of Light
5. Bardo

EDITING
Finally, a (relatively) easy category. Best Picture front-runner EEAAO should pick up a trophy here, with the spoiler being Top Gun. When the BAFTAs sent EEAAO home nearly empty-handed, it still rewarded the film's editing. That's gotta mean something.

1. Everything Everywhere All At Once
2. Top Gun: Maverick
3. Elvis
4. The Banshees of Inisherin
5. TÁR

PRODUCTION DESIGN
An interesting category, as I think there are a couple of stories that could happen here: award Catherine Martin, Baz Luhrmann's wife and two-time winner in this category for Moulin Rouge! and The Great Gatsby, with another award that will twin her likely win in Costumes. Tick, tick. Or, go for the impeccable work of Babylon, which despite its (many) flaws, is a design masterpiece. But will Academy voters want to reward that film at all? I'm not sure. I'm also not sure if All Quiet will be the crafts juggernaut on Sunday evening some are touting it to be, but it also has a chance here.

1. Elvis
2. Babylon
3. All Quiet on the Western Front
4. Avatar: The Way of Water
5. The Fabelmans

COSTUMES
Catherine Martin, two-time winner in this category for Moulin Rouge! and The Great Gatsby, should have an easy time here picking this up. Ruth Carter already won here for 2018's first Black Panther, and although there are some pretty darned impressive costumes in Wakanda Forever, I think Martin has the edge. That is, if Babylon doesn't spoil.

1. Elvis
2. Babylon
3. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
4. Everything Everywhere All At Once
5. Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris

MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
The lead acting winners and this category have been going hand-in-hand in recent years, so it's down to Elvis and The Whale.  This award happens earlier in the evening, and whoever wins here will likely take Actor. But Elvis is a Best Picture nominee, and The Whale isn't, and Elvis doesn't have charges of fatphobia going after it.

1. Elvis
2. The Whale
3. All Quiet on Western Front
4. The Batman
5. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

VISUAL EFFECTS
Easy peasy, lemon squeezy.

1. Avatar: The Way of Water
2. Top Gun: Maverick
3. All Quiet on the Western Front
4. The Batman
5. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

SOUND
Do they really want to send the blockbuster sensation of the year home empty-handed? Oh, do I mean Avatar or Top Gun? Well, Avatar has Visual Effects, so that means...

1. Top Gun: Maverick
2. Avatar: The Way of Water
3. Elvis
4. All Quiet on the Western Front
5. The Batman

ORIGINAL SCORE
This is probably the most difficult crafts category of the night to predict. Pundits are completely split. If we're going on sheer quality, it's gotta be Justin Hurwitz's Babylon. But as stated before, the film hasn't been entirely well-received. So maybe it will go to the anti-war epic All Quiet, which has a killer hook. Or will EEAAO sweep the night, and pick up another win here? As others have argued, no Best Picture nominee with nominations for both Score and Song has ever lost here. And then we have 91-year old legend John Williams waiting in the wings...

1. Babylon
2. All Quiet on the Western Front
3. Everything Everywhere All At Once
4. The Fabelmans
5. The Banshees of Inisherin

ORIGINAL SONG
This performance will bring down the house, and is the very likely winner.

1. "Naatu Naatu", RRR
2. "Hold My Hand", Top Gun: Maverick
3. "Lift Me Up", Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
4. "Applause", Tell It Like a Woman
5. "This is a Life", Everything Everywhere All At Once

INTERNATIONAL FEATURE
A film nominated here and in Best Picture has never lost in this category.

1. All Quiet on the Western Front (Germany)
2. Argentina, 1985 (Argentina)
3. EO (Poland)
4. Close (Belgium)
5. The Quiet Girl (Ireland)

ANIMATED FEATURE
Another easy peasy, lemon squeezy winner.

1. Pinocchio
2. Turning Red
3. Marcel the Shell With Shoes On
4. Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
5. The Sea Beast

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Nalvany has won the BAFTA and the PGA, a powerful combo, especially when it's for a film as topical as this one. Fire of Love may have the DGA and ACE, but I don't think it will topple Nalvany.

1. Nalvany
2. Fire of Love
3. All the Beauty and the Bloodshed
4. All That Breathes
5. A House Made of Splinters

ANIMATED SHORT
Strangely, and perhaps pathetically, a good title can make all the difference in the short categories, and there is no shortage here this year in the Animated Shorts. That's why some are saying that My Year of Dicks will win here. But Apple's campaign for the pleasant Boy, Mole, Fox and Horse has been huge, and it remains the most likely winner. Ice Merchants may win on sheer quality, though.

1. The Boy, The Mole, The Fox and the Horse
2. My Year of Dicks
3. Ice Merchants
4. The Flying Sailor
5. An Ostrich Told Me the World is Fake and I Think I Believe It

 DOCUMENTARY SHORT
Usually a crapshoot of sorts, but Malala Yousafzai's association with Stranger at the Gate may push it ahead. But how do you vote against wonderful elephants?

1. Stranger at the Gate
2. The Elephant Whisperers
3. How Do You Measure a Year?
4. The Martha Mitchell Effect
5. Haulout

LIVE ACTION SHORT
An Irish Goodbye has been touted as the thematic winner here, given the presence of Banshees and The Quiet Girl in this year's nominees. But I think the combination of Alice Rohrwacher (Happy as Lazzaro) and none other than Alfonso Cuarón will push Le Pupille to the stage.

1. Le Pupille
2. An Irish Goodbye
3. The Red Suitcase
4. Night Ride
5. Ivalu

TALLIES

6: Everything Everywhere All At Once
4: Elvis
2: All Quiet on the Western Front
1: Avatar: The Way of Water; Babylon; The Banshees of Inisherin; The Boy, The Mole, The Fox, and teh Horse; Nalvany; Pinocchio; Le Pupille; RRR; Stranger at the Gate; Top Gun: Maverick; Women Talking;

Oscar Nominations 2023 Reaction

 81/105, so a B+, which isn't so bad considering it's been a wildly unstable year. Everything Everywhere All At Once has solidified itself as the front-runner with a few surprise nominations in categories such as Original Song and Costumes. All Quiet on the Western Front also did very well this morning, as did The Banshees of Inisherin; these were both expected to do well. Elvis did as well as I thought it would, which is to say, very well. TÁR did better than expected with noms in Editing and Cinematography, beating out more likely candidates. Also doing well, despite only three noms, is Triangle of Sadness: these were in Picture, Director and Screenplay. I can imagine that Dolly de Leon just missed it in Supporting Actress. So overall, lots of mini surprises, but only a few from completely out of left field (and these were mostly the case of who made it in and who didn't get nominated).

PICTURE
So it's the agreed-upon top eight, plus two mild surprises. Women Talking making it in despite missing virtually everywhere else, including the acting and music categories, is... strange.

1. Everything Everywhere All At Once
2. The Banshees of Inisherin
3. The Fabelmans
4. TÁR
5. Elvis
6. Top Gun: Maverick
7. Avatar: The Way of Water
8. All Quiet on the Western Front
13. Women Talking
15. Triangle of Sadness

8/10

DIRECTOR
Östlund is our shock nominee... but not that shocking. I may have listed him as "also in contention", but I really felt I should have listed him in the top ten.

1. Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert, Everything Everywhere All At Once
2. Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin
3. Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans
4. Todd Field, TÁR
-. Ruben Östlund, Triangle of Sadness 

4/5

ACTRESS
The most surprising category by snubbing Davis and Deadwyler (?!), who have both been in all season long. It's down to Blanchett and Yeoh, yes, but why oh why did the Academy fall for the blatant category fraud of Williams, as I wrote before? And it turns out that Riseborough's Twitter campaign actually worked. Huh.

1. Cate Blanchett, TÁR
2. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All At One
5. Ana de Armas, Blonde
6. Andrea Riseborough, To Leslie
10. Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans

3/5

ACTOR
The Agreed On Five.

1. Brendan Fraser, The Whale
2. Austin Butler, Elvis
3. Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin
4. Bill Nighy, Living
5. Paul Mescal, Aftersun

5/5

SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1. Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
2. Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin
3. Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All At Once
4. Hong Chau, The Whale
5. Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All At Once

5/5

SUPPORTING ACTOR
Woo! So Dano is switched out for his co-star Hirsch, and Brian Tyree Henry actually made it in. No Redmayne.

1. Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All At Once
2. Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin
3. Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin
8. Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans
9. Brian Tyree Henry, Causeway

3/5

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Aftersun I suspect was very under-seen, as it only made it in one category. Alas. Neat: Östlund is a double-nominee, along with Director.

1. The Banshees of Inisherin
2. Everything Everywhere All At Once
3. The Fabelmans
4. TÁR
6. Triangle of Sadness

4/5

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
I'm actually kinda shocked that Top Gun: Maverick got in here.

1. Women Talking
3. Glass Onion
4. Living
5. All Quiet on the Western Front
10. Top Gun: Maverick

4/5

CINEMATOGRAPHY
And I'm shocked that Top Gun: Maverick got in for writing, but not here. This is actually a weird line-up, considering who didn't make it in. My worst category.

2. Empire of Light
3. Elvis
7. All Quiet on the Western Front
9. TÁR
10. Bardo

2/5

EDITING
1. Everything Everywhere All At Once
2. Top Gun: Maverick
3. Elvis
5. The Banshees of Inisherin
-. TÁR

4/5

PRODUCTION DESIGN
1. Elvis
2. Babylon
3. Avatar: The Way of Water
4. The Fabelmans
5. All Quiet on the Western Front

5/5

COSTUMES
1. Elvis
2. Babylon
3. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
4. Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris
9. Everything Everywhere All At Once

4/5

MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
1. Elvis
2. The Whale
3. The Batman
4. All Quiet on Western Front
9. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

4/5

VISUAL EFFECTS
1. Avatar: The Way of Water
2. Top Gun: Maverick
3. The Batman
4. All Quiet on the Western Front
5. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

5/5

SOUND
1. Top Gun: Maverick
2. Elvis
3. Avatar: The Way of Water
5. All Quiet on the Western Front
8. The Batman

4/5

ORIGINAL SCORE
1. Babylon
3. The Fabelmans
4. The Banshees of Inisherin
6. Everything Everywhere All At Once
8. All Quiet on the Western Front

3/5

ORIGINAL SONG
1. "Naatu Naatu", RRR
2. "Hold My Hand", Top Gun: Maverick
3. "Lift Me Up", Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
6. "Applause", Tell It Like a Woman
9. "This is a Life", Everything Everywhere All At Once

3/5

INTERNATIONAL FEATURE
Decision to Leave's miss here is actually quite surprising, considering it was in the running for Screenplay and Director.

1. All Quiet on the Western Front (Germany)
3. Argentina, 1985 (Argentina)
4. EO (Poland)
6. Close (Belgium)
10. The Quiet Girl (Ireland)

3/5

ANIMATED FEATURE
1. Pinocchio
2. Turning Red
3. Marcel the Shell With Shoes On
4. Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
-. The Sea Beast

4/5

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
1. All That Breathes
2. All the Beauty and the Bloodshed
3. Nalvany
5. Fire of Love
-. A House Made of Splinters

4/5

TALLIES

11: Everything Everywhere All At Once
9: All Quiet on the Western Front; The Banshees of Inisherin
8: Elvis
7: The Fabelmans
6: TÁR; Top Gun: Maverick
5: Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
4: Avatar: The Way of Water
3: Babylon; The Batman; Triangle of Sadness; The Whale
2: Living; Women Talking

Oscar Nominations Predictions 2023

PICTURE
What a competitive year. It seems that there are three films that are in the running for the win (EEAAO, Banshees, Fabelmans), but beyond that, it's a wide-open field. I'm quite confident in TÁR, Elvis and Top Gun. So what about the last four spots? Will there be an international surprise, like RRR? The German entry All Quiet on the Western Front just made news by having 14 nominations at the British Academy awards. Avatar's sequel is making huge money, and has been an audience favourite. Aftersun is the year's best-reviewed film. The Whale is making people openly weep in the theatres -- although not without some controversy. And what about the even more divisive Babylon, which still has quite a few champions rooting for it? As you can see, there's just so many cases to be made, that it's difficult to decide who will make the final ten. In addition, I see such cases made for Guillermo del Toro's very well received Pinocchio, Sarah Polley's strangely under-represented Women Talking (a former front-runner), another audience favourite with Glass Onion, and the very topical (and Cannes winner) Triangle of Sadness. I just don't know, but I think we're going to see more than one surprise on Tuesday.

1. Everything Everywhere All At Once
2. The Banshees of Inisherin
3. The Fabelmans
4. TÁR
5. Elvis
6. Top Gun: Maverick
7. Avatar: The Way of Water
8. All Quiet on the Western Front
9. Aftersun
10. The Whale
11. Babylon
12. Pinocchio
13. Women Talking
14. Glass Onion
15. Triangle of Sadness
16. The Woman King
17. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
18. RRR
19. She Said
20. Nope


DIRECTOR
The DGA five are the Daniels, McDonagh, Spielberg, Field, and Kosinski. It's likely that this will be the Oscar five, but a director usually sneaks in that represents global cinema. The likely candidates for that are Berger and Park, but Rajamouli won both the New York and LA film critics' awards, and the film is beloved among film types. That is not to write off Luhrmann, whom quite a few are suggesting will be the surprise of the morning, as Elvis is likely to rack up nominations. Simply put, this is another very competitive category, and one that is ripe for a shocker or two. Maybe that will be Wells or Östlund.

1. Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert, Everything Everywhere All At Once
2. Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin
3. Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans
4. Todd Field, TÁR
5. Joseph Kosinski, Top Gun: Maverick
6. Edward Berger, All Quiet on the Western Front
7. Park Chan-wook, Decision to Leave
8. Baz Luhrmann, Elvis
9. S.S. Rajamouli, RRR
10. Charlotte Wells, Aftersun
Also in contention: James Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water; Ruben Östlund, Triangle of Sadness: Gina Pryce-Blythewood, The Woman King: Sarah Polley, Women Talking: Darren Aronofsky, The Whale

ACTRESS
It really has come down to a photo-finish between Blanchett and Yeoh. Davis and Deadwyler are also very solid choices, but from there, it gets a bit murkier. There's been a wave of buzz from some fellow actors for Riseborough, but will that pan out? Or is that just Twitter being Twitter? de Armas seems to be a very divisive choice, as the film is widely hated, but then again she has been racking up the nominations, including with SAG. It strikes me as a fantastic performance in a derided film kind of situation, which happens with some frequency at the Oscars. I think the rest are long shots, but Williams is a very interesting case of someone who has been promoted as a lead, when she is clearly a supporting performance. When the studio decided to go for lead actress instead, it was met with a big "Well, then, there goes her Oscar." There's some talk of her actually being nominated in the supporting category come nominations morning, but I think this (blatant) category fraud has cost her.

1. Cate Blanchett, TÁR
2. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All At One
3. Viola Davis, The Woman King
4. Danielle Deadwyler, Till
5. Ana de Armas, Blonde
6. Andrea Riseborough, To Leslie
7. Margot Robbie, Babylon
8. Emma Thompson, Good Luck to You, Leo Grande
9. Olivia Colman, Empire of Light
10. Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans

ACTOR
The top four here are very widely considered locks, with many going for Mescal in the fifth slot. Sandler got the Screen Actors Guild nomination, but that has been met with great skepticism that it will translate to Oscar glory. Fraser and Butler are very much in the lead, and Farrell at one point was also considered a front-runner. Yet this category has been considered "weak" this year, despite some impressive work from Calva, Pope, and a variety of international performers.

1. Brendan Fraser, The Whale
2. Austin Butler, Elvis
3. Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin
4. Bill Nighy, Living
5. Paul Mescal, Aftersun
6. Adam Sandler, Hustle
7. Hugh Jackman, The Son
8. Diego Calva, Babylon
9. Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick
10. Jeremy Pope, The Inspection
Also in contention: Adam Driver, White Noise; Felix Kammerer, All Quiet on the Western Front

SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Bassett has been a very welcome nominee, as she is beloved in the industry, but this category has been cited as one that is also very competitive. Condon and JLC have also been widely nominated, but many EEAAO fans are vocal in seeing Hsu nominated over her co-star, to which I say: why not both? Chau has also been called a highlight of her film, but so has de Leon. I am sticking with this order I have below, as it is what the evidence is showing, but I somehow expect JLC to miss out over Hsu, Chau and de Leon. Interestingly, Mulligan, Foy, and Buckley were previously considered favourites in this category, but have fallen in the past month or so. I've already written about the Williams case, so what about two potential surprises: Monáe and Hoss. Both have been praised for their supporting roles, in two very well-received films. Once again, a category that seems wide-open beyond the top two.

1. Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
2. Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin
3. Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All At Once
4. Hong Chau, The Whale
5. Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All At Once
6. Dolly de Leon, Triangle of Sadness
7. Carey Mulligan, She Said
8. Claire Foy, Women Talking
9. Janelle Monáe, Glass Onion
10. Jessie Buckley, Women Talking
Also in contention: Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans; Nina Hoss, TÁR

SUPPORTING ACTOR
Quan has been sweeping the season, and just like Fraser, it's an emotional comeback. The two men from Banshees are very likely... but yet again, it's a true competition beyond that, with four performances battling it out. I think Dano is pretty safe in a Best Picture front-runner. Redmayne may be Twitter-hated, but he's actor-loved, so I think he may repeat his recent successes from the precursors and get the fifth spot. That leaves Whishaw and Pitt. Whishaw is a highlight from a film that has been forgotten about in the guilds, critic circles and other awarding bodies: will he make it in? And as for Pitt, I just don't see the passion for him, but then again...

1. Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All At Once
2. Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin
3. Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin
4. Paul Dano, The Fabelmans
5. Eddie Redmayne, The Good Nurse
6. Ben Whishaw, Women Talking
7. Brad Pitt, Babylon
8. Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans
9. Brian Tyree Henry, Causeway
10. Mark Rylance, Bones & All

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
I think this is a rather sensible predicted order of events, if I may say so myself. I think Park and Östlund's films are the most likely to take the final spot from Aftersun.

1. The Banshees of Inisherin
2. Everything Everywhere All At Once
3. The Fabelmans
4. TÁR
5. Aftersun
6. Triangle of Sadness
7. Decision of Leave
8. The Menu
9. Babylon
10. Elvis

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Strangely, this has been called a "weak" category this year, and is also the only category that Polley's film has stayed a front-runner.

1. Women Talking
2. The Whale
3. Glass Onion
4. Living
5. All Quiet on the Western Front
6. She Said
7. Pinocchio
8. White Noise
9. Bones & All
10. Top Gun: Maverick
Also in contention: Marcel the Shell With Shoes On

CINEMATOGRAPHY
1. Top Gun: Maverick
2. Empire of Light
3. Elvis
4. The Batman
5. Avatar: The Way of Water
6. The Fabelmans
7. All Quiet on the Western Front
8. Babylon
9. TÁR
10. Bardo
Also in contention: Nope; The Banshees of Inisherin; EO

EDITING
1. Everything Everywhere All At Once
2. Top Gun: Maverick
3. Elvis
4. The Fabelmans
5. The Banshees of Inisherin
6. Avatar: The Way of Water
7. Babylon
8. Glass Onion
9. All Quiet on the Western Front
10. Decision to Leave
Also in contention: TÁR; Triangle of Sadness; Women Talking

PRODUCTION DESIGN
1. Elvis
2. Babylon
3. Avatar: The Way of Water
4. The Fabelmans
5. All Quiet on the Western Front
6. Pinocchio
7. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
8. Glass Onion
9. Everything Everywhere All At Once
10. The Batman
Also in contention: White Noise; Empire of Light

COSTUMES
1. Elvis
2. Babylon
3. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
4. Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris
5. Corsage
6. The Fabelmans
7. Women Talking
8. The Woman King
9. Everything Everywhere All At Once
10. The Northman

MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
1. Elvis
2. The Whale
3. The Batman
4. All Quiet on Western Front
5. Babylon
6. Blonde
7. Crimes of the Future
8. Amsterdam
9. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
10. Emancipation

VISUAL EFFECTS
1. Avatar: The Way of Water
2. Top Gun: Maverick
3. The Batman
4. All Quiet on the Western Front
5. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
6. Nope
7. Thirteen Lives
8. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness
9. Jurassic World: Dominion
10. Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore

SOUND
1. Top Gun: Maverick
2. Elvis
3. Avatar: The Way of Water
4. Babylon
5. All Quiet on the Western Front
6. Everything Everywhere All At Once
7. Moonage Daydream
8. The Batman
9. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
10. Pinocchio

ORIGINAL SCORE
1. Babylon
2. Women Talking
3. The Fabelmans
4. The Banshees of Inisherin
5. Pinocchio
6. Everything Everywhere All At Once
7. The Woman King
8. All Quiet on the Western Front
9. Avatar: The Way of Water
10. Glass Onion
Also in contention: She Said; Black Panther: Wakanda Forever; Nope

ORIGINAL SONG
1. "Naatu Naatu", RRR
2. "Hold My Hand", Top Gun: Maverick
3. "Lift Me Up", Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
4. "Ciao Papa", Pinocchio
5. "New Body Rhumba", White Noise
6. "Applause", Tell It Like a Woman
7. "Carolina", Where the Crawdads Sing
8. "Stand Up", Till
9. "This is a Life", Everything Everywhere All At Once
10. "Nothing is Lost (You Give Me Strength)", Avatar: The Way of Water

INTERNATIONAL FEATURE
1. All Quiet on the Western Front (Germany)
2. Decision to Leave (South Korea)
3. Argentina, 1985 (Argentina)
4. EO (Poland)
5. Saint Omer (France)
6. Close (Belgium)
7. Holy Spider (Denmark)
8. Corsage (Austria)
9. Bardo (Mexico)
10. The Quiet Girl (Ireland)
Also in contention: Joyland (Pakistan); Return to Seoul (Cambodia)

ANIMATED FEATURE
1. Pinocchio
2. Turning Red
3. Marcel the Shell With Shoes On
4. Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
5. Wendell and Wild
6. The Bad Guys
7. My Father's Dragon
8. Inu-Oh
9. Strange World
10. Minions: The Rise of Gru
Also in contention: Lightyear; The Sea Beast

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
1. All That Breathes
2. All the Beauty and the Bloodshed
3. Nalvany
4. Moonage Daydream
5. Fire of Love

TALLIES

9: The Banshees of Inisherin
8: Elvis; Everything Everywhere All At Once
7: All Quiet on the Western Front; The Fabelmans; Top Gun: Maverick
5: Avatar: The Way of Water; Babylon; The Whale
4: Black Panther: Wakanda Forever; TÁR
3: Aftersun; The Batman; Pinocchio
2: Women Talking; Living

Oscar Predictions 2022

 What an absolutely bonkers year. "Chaos" has been the dominant term on Film Twitter, with Oscar folks pretty much flip-flopping their predictions every other day, it seems. No one is sure on Picture. Actress may as well be a crap-shoot. The screenplays have been in flux. While three of the acting categories have been pretty well wrapped up with the SAGs, a surprise in one of them seems likely. Dune looks to sweep the crafts categories, but to what extent? What's going on in Editing?

I think the length of this season has been the problem. Narratives ebb and flow, with the story changing each week: buzz is very real in the Oscar game, and it flows up and down. Benefiting from this is CODA, which won the SAG almost a month ago, and then the Producer's Guild recently. By the numbers, it looks to be the winner for Picture, but it also seems to be a very lightweight winner. The phrase "Hallmark Movie of the Week" has been thrown around more than once. It may play well on the weighted ballot, but I also think that it's doubtful that it's been getting a lot of number one placements from voters. The previous victor-in-waiting was The Power of the Dog, which over-performed on nominations morning. Since then, it's been taking a number of hits, with the public not being very fond of it (only a 6.9 on IMDb) and some high-profile figures airing their grievances. It's what we call a "critic's film", and I feel that those really don't do well with Oscars unless it's also an undeniable audience pleaser or feels 'Important' (see Parasite or even Moonlight): but we always have to come back to the weighted ballot, which when introduced changed everything. 

Directing is no longer the most associated award with Best Picture; it's screenplay. And with that tidbit of wisdom, we see that the two likely winners are CODA... and Belfast, the TIFF Audience Award winner. I think if there's a dark horse here, it's Belfast, despite what Film Twitter would like to see. So what am I going with for the biggest prize of the night (despite what last year's telecast would like you to think)?

Best Picture
Those of you that have followed my predictions over the years know that I don't play it safe. So with that in mind, if you use mine for your office pool, go with CODA. But I'm picking a surprise winner, and it's Belfast. "Whyyyyyy," you might be asking. It's because I just don't feel confident in The Power of the Dog over Belfast. I think Branagh's film will do well on the weighted ballot, I think that there's more passion votes for it over CODA (which, by the way, is missing important nominations in Editing and Directing), and I just have a hunch. If there's another film that may surprise, I wouldn't count out West Side Story. But that means that I have four films in the running, and to that I say: yes. Chaos reigns, after all.

My Pick: Belfast
Most Likely: CODA
Could Win: The Power of the Dog


Director
Now, unlike the craziness of Best Picture, it looks like The Power of the Dog's Jane Campion is the vastly consensus choice. The narrative is strong and has remained so over the entire season.

Will Win: Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog
Very Slight Possibility: Kenneth Branagh, Belfast


Actress
As with Picture, Actress is a category in complete flux, and is almost unpredictable. There's just so much going on here, as it's been a remarkably strong year for leading roles (which may or may not be reflected in the Oscar nominees). So like last year, I'll be ranking the nominees as I see them.

1. Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye
This is your most likely winner, but it certainly doesn't feel right, does it? She may have the SAG, but that's only one piece to go by on.

2. Kristen Stewart, Spencer
Stewart swept the critic awards, but then missed out on a SAG nomination. Uh oh! She then roared back with a 'surprise' Oscar nomination. I somehow feel that she's more likely than others think.

3. Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter
A favourite among the film community, in a film that's been divisive between critics and audiences.

4. Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos
Once upon a time, in 2022, Kidman was considered the frontrunner after Stewart fell from grace. She won the Golden Globe, after all. Then Stuff Happened.

5. Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers
The fact that I've placed Cruz last is just telling of how contestable the category is this year. Honestly, I can see any of the five winning.


Actor
After Directing, one of the easiest wins to call for Sunday night. Will Smith will finally get his much-sought after Oscar.

Will Win: Will Smith, King Richard
Could Win: Andrew Garfield, tick, tick... Boom!
Surprise?: Benedict Cumberpatch, The Power of the Dog


Supporting Actress
What an interesting win that Ariana DeBose will be, a reprise of co-star Rita Moreno's 1961 role in the first West Side Story. It's a delicious story, one that I think will be too good to ignore for the average Oscar voter.

Will Win: Ariana DeBose, West Side Story
Surprise!: Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog


Supporting Actor
Everyone, and I mean everyone, is going for Troy Kotsur here. Yet a part of me has a sneaking suspicion...

Will Win: Troy Kotsur, CODA
Surprise!: Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog


Adapted Screenplay
CODA is the widely predicted winner here, but it just. doesn't. feel. right. I mean, CODA winning over nominations leader The Power of the Dog? It may be a delightful film, but winning an Adapted Screenplay Oscar? Hmm. Here's another category to not go with my pick if you're in your office pool. Go with CODA. I'm not.

My Pick: The Power of the Dog
Most Likely: CODA


Original Screenplay
I think this will be a key category on Sunday night, based on Belfast's chances here. If it wins, then I think it just may go on to win for Best Picture. If it loses, then I'll be wrong, so then expect the winner of Adapted Screenplay to go on for the big prize. What is it up against, anyway? Well... it could be Film Twitter's beloved PTA and his breezy screenplay for Licorice Pizza. I think if there's a dark horse, it's The Worst Person in the World. The other two are just in it for the ride.

Will Win: Belfast
Could Win: Licorice Pizza


Editing
Dune seems to be the consensus here, and as we'll see, it's looking to dominate the crafts categories. But there's been a lot of talk about tick, tick... Boom!'s chances here, as it has perhaps the flashiest editing of the category. But it's also lacking in nominations, and I just don't think it will win. But we also have King Richard, which surprised everyone by winning the Editor's guild award. Does that spell out a winner for Oscar night? Again, I don't think it will. Best Picture hopeful The Power of the Dog, if it somehow wins here, will be victorious for the top prize. Don't Look Up will not win.

Will Win: Dune
Could Win: tick, tick... Boom!
What Do I Know?: King Richard

Cinematography
What a stacked category this year, with beautiful work from all five nominees. Still, I think this will spell out the beginning of Dune's sweep of the crafts.

Will Win: Dune
Could Win: The Power of the Dog
How Is This Not The Shoo-In Winner?: The Tragedy of Macbeth

Production Design
Another category with excellent work from all five, and although Nightmare Alley has a chance, it's probably gonna be the dark sci-fi of Dune.

Will Win: Dune
Could Win: Nightmare Alley

Costume Design
Oh, this one's easy. It's Cruella!

Will Win: Cruella
Could Win: Dune

Makeup and Hairstyling
Purposefully garish, just like the subject, it's gotta be The Eyes of Tammy Faye.

Will Win: The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Could Win: Dune


Original Score
Just like last year, easy-peasy. It's Dune!

Will Win: Dune
Maybe: The Power of the Dog
Surprise?: Encanto


Original Song
I think the Academy will wanna give Lin Manuel-Miranda his EGOT, but he's in steep competition with Billie Eilish and her brother's No Time to Die. James Bond theme songs have been doing well lately, and will this be another feather in the 007 cap? I really don't know where to go with this one. So...

Will Win: "No Time to Die", No Time to Die
Could Win: "Dos Oruguitas", Encanto


Sound
They used to like to award musicals in Sound Mixing, so West Side Story has a chance against the crafts behemoth Dune.

Will Win: Dune
Could Win: West Side Story


Visual Effects
I am tempted to just say, "Next!".. but I dunno. Will they want to throw Spider-Man a bone?

Will Win: Dune
Could Win: Spider-Man: No Way Home
 

Animated Feature
Encanto has certainly been dominating the conversation ever since it came out, with everyone talking about Bruno. (Hardy har har.) But I also feel that the Mitchell family deserves to be in there, too. And Flee, with its triple nominations, is about to walk away with none of them? Hmm. I dunno.

Will Win: Encanto
Could Win: Flee


International Feature
Best Picture nominee Drive My Car is probably the easy choice here. But The Worst Person in the World has also been well-loved, and is riding the buzz lately. I think this will be closer than we think, but will still turn out as we expect.

Will Win: Drive My Car (Japan)
Could Win: The Worst Person in the World (Norway)


Documentary Feature
Summer of Soul has been sweeping the awards circuit, and it probably won't stop here. Flee is the next in line, but it's been overshadowed.

Will Win: Summer of Soul
Could Win: Flee

The Shorts
I haven't seen any of them, and it's always basically a crapshoot if you haven't, so I'm just going with what looks to be consensus here.

Animated Short
Will Win: Robin Robin
CanCon Representation: Affairs of the Art

Live Action Short
Will Win: The Long Goodbye
Could Win: The Dress

Documentary Short
Will Win: The Queen of Basketball
Could Win: Audible

MULTIPLE WINNER TALLY

Dune: 6 (Editing, Cinematography, Production Design, Score, Sound, Visual Effects)
Belfast: 2 (Picture, Original Screenplay)
The Power of the Dog: 2 (Directing, Adapted Screenplay)
The Eyes of Tammy Faye: 2 (Actress, Hair and Makeup)

And the rest have one Oscar apiece.

Oscar Nominations Reaction 2022

75/105

Certainly not my best year, but that's also because of so many surprises! Almost every category had a "Huh! Didn't see that coming" moment: Nightmare Alley sneaking into Picture; Villeneuve missing like he did at the BAFTAs; surprises in both supporting acting roles (Simmons? Dench?); West Side Story doing well, but not quite as well as I was expecting; editing, which left out some key players; Drive My Car getting four nominations, not just for International; and the hilarious snubs of House of Gucci.

It certainly looks like The Power of the Dog's to lose at this point, as it leads with twelve nominations, a little bit more than what people were predicting.

Best Picture

1. Belfast
2. The Power of the Dog
3. Dune
4. West Side Story
5. Licorice Pizza
6. CODA
7. King Richard
8. Don't Look Up
10. Drive My Car
13. Nightmare Alley

9/10

Director
I'm sorry, what? Did Dune just direct itself to ten nominations?

1. Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog
3. Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza
4. Kenneth Branagh, Belfast
5. Steven Spielberg, West Side Story
6. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Drive My Car

4/5

Actress
Gaga, who has been campaigning hard for the nomination, has been snubbed! Stewart, who many were considering to be out of the rankings because of misses with BAFTA and SAG, makes it in.

1. Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos
2. Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter
4. Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye
6. Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers
7. Kristen Stewart, Spencer

3/5

Actor
Aaaaaand it's the SAG five.

1. Will Smith, King Richard
2. Benedict Cumberpatch, The Power of the Dog
3. Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth
4. Andrew Garfield, tick, tick... Boom!
6. Javier Bardem, Being the Ricardos

4/5

Supporting Actress
Belfast was nominated here, but with a different actress: the legendary Judi Dench, whom I suspected early on would make it in, but never had the guts to say.

1. Ariana DeBose, West Side Story
2. Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog
4. Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard
8. Jessie Buckley, The Lost Daughter
-. Judi Dench, Belfast

3/5

Supporting Actor

1. Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog
2. Troy Kotsur, CODA
3. Ciaran Hinds, Belfast
7. Jesse Plemons, The Power of the Dog
-. J.K. Simmons, Being the Ricardos

3/5

Adapted Screenplay

1. The Power of the Dog
2. CODA
4. Dune
5. Drive My Car
6. The Lost Daughter

4/5

Original Screenplay

1. Licorice Pizza
2. Belfast
3. King Richard
4. Don't Look Up
10. The Worst Person in the World

4/5

Editing

1. Dune
2. The Power of the Dog
6. Don't Look Up
7. tick, tick... Boom!
8. King Richard

2/5

Cinematography

1. Dune
2. The Power of the Dog
3. The Tragedy of Macbeth
4. West Side Story
6. Nightmare Alley

4/5

Production Design

1. Dune
2. Nightmare Alley
3. West Side Story
5. The Tragedy of Macbeth
-. The Power of the Dog

4/5

Costume Design
When House of Gucci missed here, I knew the film was in trouble and anticipated snubs.

1. Cruella
2. Dune
4. West Side Story
5. Nightmare Alley
7. Cyrano

4/5

Makeup and Hairstyling

1. The Eyes of Tammy Faye
2. Dune
3. Cruella
4. House of Gucci
9. Coming 2 America

4/5

Original Score

1. Dune
2. The Power of the Dog
3. Don't Look Up
4. Encanto
6. Parallel Mothers

4/5


Original Song

1. "No Time to Die", No Time to Die
2. "Dos Oruguitas", Encanto
3. "Be Alive", King Richard
7. "Down to Joy", Belfast
-. "Somehow You Do", Four Good Days

3/5

Sound

1. Dune
2. West Side Story
3. No Time to Die
5. Belfast
6. The Power of the Dog

4/5

Visual Effects

1. Dune
2. Spider-Man: No Way Home
3. Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings
6. No Time to Die
7. Free Guy

3/5

Animated Feature

1. Encanto
2. Flee
3. The Mitchells vs the Machines
4. Luca
5. Raya and the Last Dragon

5/5


International Feature

1. Drive My Car (Japan)
3. Flee (Denmark)
4. The Worst Person in the World (Norway)
5. The Hand of God (Italy)
8. Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom (Bhutan)

4/5

Documentary Feature

1. Flee
4. Ascension
5. Summer of Soul
8. Attica
10. Writing with Fire

3/5

Tallies: Films With More Than One Nomination

The Power of the Dog 12
Dune 10
West Side Story 7
Belfast 7
King Richard 6
Don't Look Up 4
Drive My Car 4
Nightmare Alley 4
Being the Ricardos 3
CODA 3
Encanto 3
Flee 3
Licorice Pizza 3
The Lost Daughter 3
The Tragedy of Macbeth 3
No Time to Die 3
Cruella 2
The Eyes of Tammy Faye 2
Parallel Mothers 2
tick, tick... Boom! 2
The Worst Person in the World 2

Oscar Nominations Predictions 2022

I haven't been following the Oscar race as closely this year, with one primary reason: I haven't been to the cinema since the pandemic started. Therefore, I haven't seen these films... but I'm still making my predictions! This is based on critical and industry support, along with following Film Twitter and awards blogs. It looks like it's a four-way race between Belfast, The Power of the Dog, Dune and West Side Story for Oscar glory, with these films leading the tally.

Best Picture

1. Belfast
2. The Power of the Dog
3. Dune
4. West Side Story
5. Licorice Pizza
6. CODA
7. King Richard
8. Don't Look Up
9. tick, tick... Boom!
10. Drive My Car
11. The Tragedy of Macbeth
12. Being the Ricardos
13. Nightmare Alley
14. House of Gucci
15. The Lost Daughter
16. Spider-Man: No Way Home
17. Cyrano
18. Spencer
19. Titane
20. Parallel Mothers

Director
I'm going with the DGA five, but this is a category ripe for surprises.

1. Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog
2. Denis Villeneuve, Dune
3. Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza
4. Kenneth Branagh, Belfast
5. Steven Spielberg, West Side Story
6. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Drive My Car
7. Julia Ducournau, Titane
8. Joel Coen, The Tragedy of Macbeth
9. Pedro Almodovar, Parallel Mothers
10. Adam McKay, Don't Look Up
Also in Contention: Reinaldo Marcus Green (King Richard), Guillermo del Toro (Nightmare Alley), Maggie Gyllenhaal (The Lost Daughter), Lin-Manuel Miranda (tick, tick... Boom!), Sian Heder (CODA)

Actress
Unlike last year, where the final five were widely predicted, this time there is a general consensus that the category is in flux. No one can agree on who's the front-runner, with Stewart missing out on some major award nominations when only a few months ago she was practically crowned Victor-in-Waiting. I think that Haim will make it in, but I'm not confident in this lineup at all. Expect there to be some surprises tomorrow morning.

1. Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos
2. Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter
3. Lady Gaga, House of Gucci
4. Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye
5. Alana Haim, Licorice Pizza
6. Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers
7. Kristen Stewart, Spencer
8. Jennifer Hudson, Respect
9. Rachel Zegler, West Side Story
10. Frances McDormand, The Tragedy of Macbeth

Actor
I'm just not convinced that Bardem will translate his SAG nomination to an Oscar one. Does that mean that DiCaprio will sneak into that fifth place? Or will Dinklage or Cage make it in, with their well-received performances in smaller films?

1. Will Smith, King Richard
2. Benedict Cumberpatch, The Power of the Dog
3. Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth
4. Andrew Garfield, tick, tick... Boom!
5. Nicolas Cage, Pig
6. Javier Bardem, Being the Ricardos
7. Leonardo DiCaprio, Don't Look Up
8. Peter Dinklage, Cyrano
9. Adam Driver, Annette
10. Hidetoshi Nishijima, Drive My Car

Supporting Actress
How wonderful would it be to see Moreno make it in, along with DeBose? I mean, to see Moreno, who won the Oscar for the 1961 West Side Story as Anita, watch rising star DeBose win for the same role? That's just the kind of delicious thing that the Academy lives for. Alas, I don't think Moreno will make it in, but this is a strong category that is just itching for a surprise.

1. Ariana DeBose, West Side Story
2. Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog
3. Caitriona Balfe, Belfast
4. Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard
5. Ruth Negga, Passing
6. Ann Dowd, Mass
7. Rita Moreno, West Side Story
8. Jessie Buckley, The Lost Daughter
9. Marlee Matlin, CODA
10. Cate Blanchett, Nightmare Alley

Supporting Actor
Please don't make me list Jared Leto for his "Mamma-Mia, I like-a-da-spicy-meatball" performance.

1. Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog
2. Troy Kotsur, CODA
3. Ciaran Hinds, Belfast
4. Bradley Cooper, Licorice Pizza
5. Mike Faist, West Side Story
6. Jared Leto, House of Gucci
7. Jesse Plemons, The Power of the Dog
8. Jamie Dornan, Belfast
9. Ben Affleck, The Tender Bar
10. Jason Isaacs, Mass

Adapted Screenplay
What a category! I think any of the top ten here have a chance to make it in. I'm not all that convinced with CODA, but the industry awards to far have been in its favour, so there we have it.

1. The Power of the Dog
2. CODA
3. West Side Story
4. Dune
5. Drive My Car
6. The Lost Daughter
7. The Tragedy of Macbeth
8. Nightmare Alley
9. Passing
10. tick, tick... Boom!

Original Screenplay
A remarkably weak category this year, with two films that were not all that well received sneaking into the top five positions, yet getting industry support: Don't Look Up and Being the Ricardos.

1. Licorice Pizza
2. Belfast
3. King Richard
4. Don't Look Up
5. Being the Ricardos
6. Parallel Mothers
7. Mass
8. A Hero
9. Pig
10. The Worst Person in the World

Editing
I suspect that Drive My Car may make it in, but with no precursor mentions, it's at the bottom of my top ten list. So why do I think this? Because the last few weeks have been a flurry of people talking about the film, and with its surprising pacing and gutsy decisions (with the title card 45 minutes into the film). Still, you can't go wrong with this top five.

1. Dune
2. The Power of the Dog
3. Belfast
4. Licorice Pizza
5. West Side Story
6. Don't Look Up
7. tick, tick... Boom!
8. King Richard
9. Summer of Soul
10. Drive My Car

Cinematography
I'm not seeing anyone mention Passing in their nominations, but it's another film that I think may surprise here.

1. Dune
2. The Power of the Dog
3. The Tragedy of Macbeth
4. West Side Story
5. Belfast
6. Nightmare Alley
7. The Green Knight
8. Spencer
9. tick, tick... Boom!
10. Passing

Production Design

1. Dune
2. Nightmare Alley
3. West Side Story
4. The French Dispatch
5. The Tragedy of Macbeth
6. Cyrano
7. Belfast
8. Spencer
9. Cruella
10. The Last Duel

Costume Design

1. Cruella
2. Dune
3. House of Gucci
4. West Side Story
5. Nightmare Alley
6. Spencer
7. Cyrano
8. The French Dispatch
9. Coming 2 America
10. Annette

Makeup and Hairstyling

1. The Eyes of Tammy Faye
2. Dune
3. Cruella
4. House of Gucci
5. West Side Story
6. Nightmare Alley
7. The Suicide Squad
8. Cyrano
9. Coming 2 America
10. No Time to Die

Original Score

1. Dune
2. The Power of the Dog
3. Don't Look Up
4. Encanto
5. The French Dispatch
6. Parallel Mothers
7. Spencer
8. No Time to Die
9. The Harder They Fall
10. The Green Knight

Original Song
No, "We Don't Talk About Bruno" won't be nominated. Why? Because it wasn't submitted for consideration, something that a lot of people have been calling a huge mistake for Disney.

1. "No Time to Die", No Time to Die
2. "Dos Oruguitas", Encanto
3. "Be Alive", King Richard
4. "Just Look Up", Don't Look Up
5. "Here I Am Singing My Way Home", Respect
6. "Guns Go Bang", The Harder They Fall
7. "Down to Joy", Belfast
8. "So May We Start", Annette
9. "Your Song Saved My Life", Sing 2
10. "Beyond the Shore", CODA

Sound

1. Dune
2. West Side Story
3. No Time to Die
4. tick, tick... Boom!
5. Belfast
6. The Power of the Dog
7. Spider-Man: No Way Home
8. A Quiet Place Part II
9. The Matrix Resurrections
10. Last Night in Soho

Visual Effects

1. Dune
2. Spider-Man: No Way Home
3. Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings
4. The Matrix Resurrections
5. Godzilla vs. Kong
6. No Time to Die
7. Free Guy
8. Eternals
9. Ghostbusters: Afterlife
10. Black Widow

Animated Feature
You'll notice something here: Flee is predicted in Animated, International and Documentary feature categories. Cool!

1. Encanto
2. Flee
3. The Mitchells vs the Machines
4. Luca
5. Raya and the Last Dragon
6. Belle
7. Sing 2
8. The Summit of the Gods
9. ??
10. ??


International Feature

1. Drive My Car (Japan)
2. A Hero (Iran)
3. Flee (Denmark)
4. The Worst Person in the World (Norway)
5. The Hand of God (Italy)
6. Compartment No 6 (Finland)
7. Hive (Kosovo)
8. Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom (Bhutan)
9. Lamb (Iceland)

Documentary Feature
There's always a surprise here, usually the snub of a supposed front-runner. I think it'll be Summer of Soul that will be snubbed here, but I'm still placing it in my top 5, because all industry support is suggesting it.

1. Flee
2. The Rescue
3. Procession
4. Ascension
5. Summer of Soul
6. Julia
7. The Velvet Underground
8. Attica
9. The First Wave
10. Writing with Fire

Tallies: Films With More Than One Nomination

Dune 11
West Side Story 11
The Power of the Dog 9
Belfast 8
Licorice Pizza 6
King Richard 5
Don't Look Up 4
CODA 3
Drive My Car 3
Encanto 3
Flee 3
House of Gucci 3
tick, tick... Boom! 3
The Tragedy of Macbeth 3
Being the Ricardos 2
Cruella 2
The Eyes of Tammy Faye 2
The French Dispatch 2
Nightmare Alley 2
No Time to Die 2