Oscar Predictions 2014

Best Picture
It's down to two real possibilities: 12 Years a Slave and Gravity, with American Hustle now trailing behind. So which one is the winner? The technical sweeper that is Gravity, or the gravity of 12 Years a Slave? I'm going for 12 Years a Slave.

Will Win: 12 Years a Slave
Could Win: Gravity

Best Director
If the Academy decides to throw us a curveball, it'll be McQueen here, upsetting the far-in-the-front-runner, Cuarón. The logic here is that the Academy doesn't really like to split Picture and Director, and those that will be voting for 12 Years a Slave will tick off McQueen, too. Nevertheless, I'm doing what you shouldn't do, and predicting a split: the more likely scenario being that Gravity takes Picture along with Director. Interestingly, if what I'm predicting is the case, it will recall the 1973 Oscars where Cabaret swept the technical awards and won Director, but The Godfather winning Picture, Actor and Adapted Screenplay: similar to the Picture-Supporting Actress-Adapted Screenplay I'm calling for 12 Years a Slave.

Will Win: Alfonso Cuarón, Gravity
Could Win: Steve McQueen, 12 Years a Slave

Actress
Blanchett has this locked up. I'm not even sure of an alternative winner here other than Adams.

Will Win: Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
Could Win: Amy Adams, American Hustle

Actor
This strikes me as one of the closest races of the night, with three actors battling it out for the Oscar. Nevertheless, I expect Matthew McConnaughey to continue his sweeping of the category, with Ejiofor and DiCaprio not far behind.

Will Win: Matthew McConnaughey, Dallas Buyers Club
Could Win: Leonardo DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street OR Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave

Supporting Actress
I suspect that Nyong'o, SAG winner, will take this prize. Will the Academy really want to give Lawrence another Oscar already? I doubt it, but then again Waltz won last year.

Will Win: Lupita Nyong'o, 12 Years a Slave
Could Win: Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle

Supporting Actor
Leto has this category all sewn up.

Will Win: Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club
Could Win: Michael Fassbender, 12 Years a Slave

Adapted Screenplay
Will BAFTA-winning Philomena surprise here? It has its rather vocal supporters, but I'm going with the behemoth in the category.

Will Win: 12 Years a Slave
Could Win: Philomena

Original Screenplay
Spike Jonze's Her won the Globe, and it strikes me as the most 'writerly' of the bunch… next to American Hustle, that is. Will they really send it away without a single award? Here seems to be the most likely place for it to pop up.

Will Win: Her
Could Win: American Hustle

Editing
Many are calling for a Captain Phillips win here, but I think that Gravity will sweep the technical awards with voters simply going 'check check check' down the ballot.

Will Win: Gravity
Could Win: Captain Phillips

Cinematography
Gravity continues its sweep here.

Will Win: Gravity
Could Win: Nebraska

Production Design
The winner in this category is often marked by the equation 'Best = Most', and The Great Gatsby is surely the 'most' of the bunch.

Will Win: The Great Gatsby
Could Win: 12 Years a Slave

Costume Design
Will The Great Gatsby match Moulin Rouge's feat of a Luhrmann film winning both Production and Costume design? It's sure looking likely.

Will Win: The Great Gatsby
Could Win: 12 Years a Slave

Makeup and Hairstyling
I suspect most voters will check off the lone Best Picture nominee of the bunch, and avoid the nonetheless impressive work of Bad Grandpa.

Will Win: Dallas Buyers Club
Could Win: The Lone Ranger

Original Score
I think this is an easy win for Steven Price's score for Gravity.

Will Win: Gravity
Could Win: Her

Original Song
A month ago, I would be entirely comfortable with "Let it Go". But given that "Happy" has been radio-dominating as of late, I think there's a good chance it may slide in here.

Will Win: "Let it Go" from Frozen
Could Win: "Happy" from Despicable Me 2

Sound Mixing
Easy.

Will Win: Gravity
Could Win: Captain Phillips

Sound Editing
Peasy.

Will Win: Gravity
Could Win: Captain Phillips

Visual Effects
Done like dinner.

Will Win: Gravity
Could Win: The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug

Foreign Language
The Felliniesque Great Beauty will surely have its champions, and many are predicting that it will win the category like it did at the Globes. But I'm not so sure. After seeing the film myself, it's brilliant but potentially difficult viewing for some. The more traditional storytelling of The Hunt lends itself to more mainstream audiences, and it's excellent to boot.

Will Win: The Hunt
Could Win: The Great Beauty

Animated Feature

Will Win: Frozen
Could Win: The Wind Rises

Animated Short

Will Win: Get a Horse!
Could Win: Feral

Documentary Feature

Will Win: 20 Feet from Stardom
Could Win: The Square

Documentary Short

Will Win: The Lady in Number 6: Music Saved My Life
Could Win: Karama Has No Walls

Live Action Short

Will Win: Helium
Could Win: ???


TALLY
Gravity: 7
12 Years a Slave: 3
Dallas Buyers Club: 3
The Great Gatsby: 2
Frozen: 2