What an absolutely bonkers year. "Chaos" has been the dominant term on Film Twitter, with Oscar folks pretty much flip-flopping their predictions every other day, it seems. No one is sure on Picture. Actress may as well be a crap-shoot. The screenplays have been in flux. While three of the acting categories have been pretty well wrapped up with the SAGs, a surprise in one of them seems likely. Dune looks to sweep the crafts categories, but to what extent? What's going on in Editing?
I think the length of this season has been the problem. Narratives ebb and flow, with the story changing each week: buzz is very real in the Oscar game, and it flows up and down. Benefiting from this is CODA, which won the SAG almost a month ago, and then the Producer's Guild recently. By the numbers, it looks to be the winner for Picture, but it also seems to be a very lightweight winner. The phrase "Hallmark Movie of the Week" has been thrown around more than once. It may play well on the weighted ballot, but I also think that it's doubtful that it's been getting a lot of number one placements from voters. The previous victor-in-waiting was The Power of the Dog, which over-performed on nominations morning. Since then, it's been taking a number of hits, with the public not being very fond of it (only a 6.9 on IMDb) and some high-profile figures airing their grievances. It's what we call a "critic's film", and I feel that those really don't do well with Oscars unless it's also an undeniable audience pleaser or feels 'Important' (see Parasite or even Moonlight): but we always have to come back to the weighted ballot, which when introduced changed everything.
Directing is no longer the most associated award with Best Picture; it's screenplay. And with that tidbit of wisdom, we see that the two likely winners are CODA... and Belfast, the TIFF Audience Award winner. I think if there's a dark horse here, it's Belfast, despite what Film Twitter would like to see. So what am I going with for the biggest prize of the night (despite what last year's telecast would like you to think)?
Best Picture
Those of you that have followed my predictions over the years know that I don't play it safe. So with that in mind, if you use mine for your office pool, go with CODA. But I'm picking a surprise winner, and it's Belfast. "Whyyyyyy," you might be asking. It's because I just don't feel confident in The Power of the Dog over Belfast. I think Branagh's film will do well on the weighted ballot, I think that there's more passion votes for it over CODA (which, by the way, is missing important nominations in Editing and Directing), and I just have a hunch. If there's another film that may surprise, I wouldn't count out West Side Story. But that means that I have four films in the running, and to that I say: yes. Chaos reigns, after all.
My Pick: Belfast
Most Likely: CODA
Could Win: The Power of the Dog
Director
Now, unlike the craziness of Best Picture, it looks like The Power of the Dog's Jane Campion is the vastly consensus choice. The narrative is strong and has remained so over the entire season.
Will Win: Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog
Very Slight Possibility: Kenneth Branagh, Belfast
Actress
As with Picture, Actress is a category in complete flux, and is almost unpredictable. There's just so much going on here, as it's been a remarkably strong year for leading roles (which may or may not be reflected in the Oscar nominees). So like last year, I'll be ranking the nominees as I see them.
1. Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye
This is your most likely winner, but it certainly doesn't feel right, does it? She may have the SAG, but that's only one piece to go by on.
2. Kristen Stewart, Spencer
Stewart swept the critic awards, but then missed out on a SAG nomination. Uh oh! She then roared back with a 'surprise' Oscar nomination. I somehow feel that she's more likely than others think.
3. Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter
A favourite among the film community, in a film that's been divisive between critics and audiences.
4. Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos
Once upon a time, in 2022, Kidman was considered the frontrunner after Stewart fell from grace. She won the Golden Globe, after all. Then Stuff Happened.
5. Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers
The fact that I've placed Cruz last is just telling of how contestable the category is this year. Honestly, I can see any of the five winning.
Actor
After Directing, one of the easiest wins to call for Sunday night. Will Smith will finally get his much-sought after Oscar.
Will Win: Will Smith, King Richard
Could Win: Andrew Garfield, tick, tick... Boom!
Surprise?: Benedict Cumberpatch, The Power of the Dog
Supporting Actress
What an interesting win that Ariana DeBose will be, a reprise of co-star Rita Moreno's 1961 role in the first West Side Story. It's a delicious story, one that I think will be too good to ignore for the average Oscar voter.
Will Win: Ariana DeBose, West Side Story
Surprise!: Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog
Supporting Actor
Everyone, and I mean everyone, is going for Troy Kotsur here. Yet a part of me has a sneaking suspicion...
Will Win: Troy Kotsur, CODA
Surprise!: Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog
Adapted Screenplay
CODA is the widely predicted winner here, but it just. doesn't. feel. right. I mean, CODA winning over nominations leader The Power of the Dog? It may be a delightful film, but winning an Adapted Screenplay Oscar? Hmm. Here's another category to not go with my pick if you're in your office pool. Go with CODA. I'm not.
My Pick: The Power of the Dog
Most Likely: CODA
Original Screenplay
I think this will be a key category on Sunday night, based on Belfast's chances here. If it wins, then I think it just may go on to win for Best Picture. If it loses, then I'll be wrong, so then expect the winner of Adapted Screenplay to go on for the big prize. What is it up against, anyway? Well... it could be Film Twitter's beloved PTA and his breezy screenplay for Licorice Pizza. I think if there's a dark horse, it's The Worst Person in the World. The other two are just in it for the ride.
Will Win: Belfast
Could Win: Licorice Pizza
Editing
Dune seems to be the consensus here, and as we'll see, it's looking to dominate the crafts categories. But there's been a lot of talk about tick, tick... Boom!'s chances here, as it has perhaps the flashiest editing of the category. But it's also lacking in nominations, and I just don't think it will win. But we also have King Richard, which surprised everyone by winning the Editor's guild award. Does that spell out a winner for Oscar night? Again, I don't think it will. Best Picture hopeful The Power of the Dog, if it somehow wins here, will be victorious for the top prize. Don't Look Up will not win.
Will Win: Dune
Could Win: tick, tick... Boom!
What Do I Know?: King Richard
Cinematography
What a stacked category this year, with beautiful work from all five nominees. Still, I think this will spell out the beginning of Dune's sweep of the crafts.
Will Win: Dune
Could Win: The Power of the Dog
How Is This Not The Shoo-In Winner?: The Tragedy of Macbeth
Production Design
Another category with excellent work from all five, and although Nightmare Alley has a chance, it's probably gonna be the dark sci-fi of Dune.
Will Win: Dune
Could Win: Nightmare Alley
Costume Design
Oh, this one's easy. It's Cruella!
Will Win: Cruella
Could Win: Dune
Makeup and Hairstyling
Purposefully garish, just like the subject, it's gotta be The Eyes of Tammy Faye.
Will Win: The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Could Win: Dune
Original Score
Just like last year, easy-peasy. It's Dune!
Will Win: Dune
Maybe: The Power of the Dog
Surprise?: Encanto
Original Song
I think the Academy will wanna give Lin Manuel-Miranda his EGOT, but he's in steep competition with Billie Eilish and her brother's No Time to Die. James Bond theme songs have been doing well lately, and will this be another feather in the 007 cap? I really don't know where to go with this one. So...
Will Win: "No Time to Die", No Time to Die
Could Win: "Dos Oruguitas", Encanto
Sound
They used to like to award musicals in Sound Mixing, so West Side Story has a chance against the crafts behemoth Dune.
Will Win: Dune
Could Win: West Side Story
Visual Effects
I am tempted to just say, "Next!".. but I dunno. Will they want to throw Spider-Man a bone?
Will Win: Dune
Could Win: Spider-Man: No Way Home
Animated Feature
Encanto has certainly been dominating the conversation ever since it came out, with everyone talking about Bruno. (Hardy har har.) But I also feel that the Mitchell family deserves to be in there, too. And Flee, with its triple nominations, is about to walk away with none of them? Hmm. I dunno.
Will Win: Encanto
Could Win: Flee
International Feature
Best Picture nominee Drive My Car is probably the easy choice here. But The Worst Person in the World has also been well-loved, and is riding the buzz lately. I think this will be closer than we think, but will still turn out as we expect.
Will Win: Drive My Car (Japan)
Could Win: The Worst Person in the World (Norway)
Documentary Feature
Summer of Soul has been sweeping the awards circuit, and it probably won't stop here. Flee is the next in line, but it's been overshadowed.
Will Win: Summer of Soul
Could Win: Flee
The Shorts
I
haven't seen any of them, and it's always basically a crapshoot if you
haven't, so I'm just going with what looks to be consensus here.
Animated Short
Will Win: Robin Robin
CanCon Representation: Affairs of the Art
Live Action Short
Will Win: The Long Goodbye
Could Win: The Dress
Documentary Short
Will Win: The Queen of Basketball
Could Win: Audible
MULTIPLE WINNER TALLY
Dune: 6 (Editing, Cinematography, Production Design, Score, Sound, Visual Effects)
Belfast: 2 (Picture, Original Screenplay)
The Power of the Dog: 2 (Directing, Adapted Screenplay)
The Eyes of Tammy Faye: 2 (Actress, Hair and Makeup)
And the rest have one Oscar apiece.
