I'm doing something a bit different this year for my predictions: I'm ranking every category instead of my usual 'Will Win' and 'Might Win', with the occasional 'Dark Horse' and 'If Hell Freezes Over'. I'm doing this because it seems that there are just so many categories this year that we really don't know how they will end up. Too many photo finishes for my liking when it comes to predictions, but oh boy, does it make for an exciting evening.
PICTURE
It's pretty much written in stone that Everything Everywhere All At Once is going to be the big winner on Sunday night, but I suppose the more interesting question is: do we have an old-fashioned sweep on our hands here? I think that if there are two films that will do well on the ranked ballot that just may--maybe--have a shot at an upset, it'll be Top Gun: Maverick and All Quiet on the Western Front. That being said, with wins at the DGA, SAG, PGA and WGA, EEAAO is most definitely the one to beat. But it is a strange film, perhaps too eagerly weird for some of the more conservative members of the Academy. I don't think even a few years ago it would have gone this far, as the Academy has been expanding to a more youthful and international membership in recent times.
1. Everything Everywhere All At Once
2. All Quiet on the Western Front
3. Top Gun: Maverick
4. The Banshees of Inisherin
5. The Fabelmans
6. TÁR
7. Elvis
8. Women Talking
9. Avatar: The Way of Water
10. Triangle of Sadness
DIRECTOR
The Daniels have done very well for themselves: who woulda thunk it over a year ago, when EEAAO debuted?
1. Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert, Everything Everywhere All At Once
2. Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin
3. Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans
4. Todd Field, TÁR
5. Ruben Östlund,
Triangle of Sadness
ACTRESS
It comes down to a very tight race between Yeoh and Blanchett. I think, however, the fact that Blanchett already has two Oscars, and that Yeoh's narrative is very strong (we all want to see her win an Oscar, after all) will tip the favour to almighty ass-kicker Michelle. She won the SAG, too, meaning that she has the acting branch behind her. Blanchett's performance is pretty undeniable, however: a striking, momentous achievement. I mean, Yeoh is awesome in EEAAO, but Blanchett is simply amazing, with an all-timer of a performance. The rest of the women here are just in it for the ride.
1. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All At One
2. Cate Blanchett, TÁR
3. Ana de Armas, Blonde
4. Andrea Riseborough, To Leslie
5. Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans
ACTOR
I want to say that Fraser has a better story than Butler: a beloved actor that is experiencing a very well-deserved renaissance. But somehow, I think Butler will be the winner on Sunday. I'm certainly not comfortable in this prediction, as this is one of the "coin toss" categories of the night.
1. Austin Butler, Elvis
2. Brendan Fraser, The Whale
3. Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin
4. Bill Nighy, Living
5. Paul Mescal, Aftersun
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Jamie Lee Curtis won the SAG, which would seemingly make her the front-runner... yet she is also considered by many to be the one weak performance among the nominees. I don't think she'll take it, but once again we have a category in flux: if not Curtis, then who? Will it be Angela Bassett, the Hollywood legend finally getting her due? Or Kerry Condon, a bright light in a very well-liked film that is probably not getting an Oscar otherwise? Heck, even Hsu has a shot. In the end, I believe it will be Condon Curtis Bassett. But maybe she peaked too early in the season, as both Condon and Curtis have had the recent momentum, with their BAFTA and SAG, respectively. Argh! I honestly don't know... except that Chau has no chance. Sorry.
Huh. You know what? If Bassett was going to win here, she would've won at SAG. Condon it is, then!
1. Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin
2. Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
3. Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All At Once
4. Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All At Once
5. Hong Chau, The Whale
SUPPORTING ACTOR
Ke Huy Quan has been sweeping the entire season, and I don't see that ending here.
1. Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All At Once
2. Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin
3. Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin
4. Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans
5. Brian Tyree Henry, Causeway
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Earlier in the season, it seemed that this was going to be McDonagh's to lose, with wins at the Globes and BAFTA... but then the EEAAO sweep began. I suspect that we are going to see another sweep on Sunday night, with the Daniels winning here, as they did with Critics Choice, Spirits and WGA (which Banshees was ineligible for).
1. Everything Everywhere All At Once
2. The Banshees of Inisherin
3. TÁR
4. The Fabelmans
5. Triangle of Sadness
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Quite the interesting set of nominees here, from chamber drama to blockbuster to murder mystery. We even have a Kurosawa remake, and a remake of an early Best Picture winner. Sarah Polley is the one to beat here for Women Talking.
1. Women Talking
2. All Quiet on the Western Front
3. Glass Onion
4. Top Gun: Maverick
5. Living
CINEMATOGRAPHY
I have no idea who is actually going to win the category. Not a one. Frankly, I can see arguments for all five. We have the master himself, Deakins with a Mendes-directed film, although certainly not a successful film. We have Khondji's film directed by Iñárritu, another not very successful yet beautiful film. I think these two are at the bottom. So that leaves three: Mandy Walker for Elvis, Florian Hoffmeister for TÁR, and James Friend for All Quiet. Of these, Hoffmeister might be the most deserving, if only slightly: but I think voters won't see it that way, as it's not very "showy", especially in still shots. I think it will come down to Elvis vs. All Quiet, and I somehow don't think we'll see the first woman (!!!) win in this category. I think the BAFTA winner will repeat here.
1. All Quiet on the Western Front
2. Elvis
3. TÁR
4. Empire of Light
5. Bardo
EDITING
Finally, a (relatively) easy category. Best Picture front-runner EEAAO should pick up a trophy here, with the spoiler being Top Gun. When the BAFTAs sent EEAAO home nearly empty-handed, it still rewarded the film's editing. That's gotta mean something.
1. Everything Everywhere All At Once
2. Top Gun: Maverick
3. Elvis
4. The Banshees of Inisherin
5. TÁR
PRODUCTION DESIGN
An interesting category, as I think there are a couple of stories that could happen here: award Catherine Martin, Baz Luhrmann's wife and two-time winner in this category for Moulin Rouge! and The Great Gatsby, with another award that will twin her likely win in Costumes. Tick, tick. Or, go for the impeccable work of Babylon, which despite its (many) flaws, is a design masterpiece. But will Academy voters want to reward that film at all? I'm not sure. I'm also not sure if All Quiet will be the crafts juggernaut on Sunday evening some are touting it to be, but it also has a chance here.
1. Elvis
2. Babylon
3. All Quiet on the Western Front
4. Avatar: The Way of Water
5. The Fabelmans
COSTUMES
Catherine Martin, two-time winner in this category for Moulin Rouge! and The Great Gatsby, should have an easy time here picking this up. Ruth Carter already won here for 2018's first Black Panther, and although there are some pretty darned impressive costumes in Wakanda Forever, I think Martin has the edge. That is, if Babylon doesn't spoil.
1. Elvis
2. Babylon
3. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
4. Everything Everywhere All At Once
5. Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris
MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
The lead acting winners and this category have been going hand-in-hand in recent years, so it's down to Elvis and The Whale. This award happens earlier in the evening, and whoever wins here will likely take Actor. But Elvis is a Best Picture nominee, and The Whale isn't, and Elvis doesn't have charges of fatphobia going after it.
1. Elvis
2. The Whale
3. All Quiet on Western Front
4. The Batman
5. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
VISUAL EFFECTS
Easy peasy, lemon squeezy.
1. Avatar: The Way of Water
2. Top Gun: Maverick
3. All Quiet on the Western Front
4. The Batman
5. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
SOUND
Do they really want to send the blockbuster sensation of the year home empty-handed? Oh, do I mean Avatar or Top Gun? Well, Avatar has Visual Effects, so that means...
1. Top Gun: Maverick
2. Avatar: The Way of Water
3. Elvis
4. All Quiet on the Western Front
5. The Batman
ORIGINAL SCORE
This is probably the most difficult crafts category of the night to predict. Pundits are completely split. If we're going on sheer quality, it's gotta be Justin Hurwitz's Babylon. But as stated before, the film hasn't been entirely well-received. So maybe it will go to the anti-war epic All Quiet, which has a killer hook. Or will EEAAO sweep the night, and pick up another win here? As others have argued, no Best Picture nominee with nominations for both Score and Song has ever lost here. And then we have 91-year old legend John Williams waiting in the wings...
1. Babylon
2. All Quiet on the Western Front
3. Everything Everywhere All At Once
4. The Fabelmans
5. The Banshees of Inisherin
ORIGINAL SONG
This performance will bring down the house, and is the very likely winner.
1. "Naatu Naatu", RRR
2. "Hold My Hand", Top Gun: Maverick
3. "Lift Me Up", Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
4. "Applause", Tell It Like a Woman
5. "This is a Life", Everything Everywhere All At Once
INTERNATIONAL FEATURE
A film nominated here and in Best Picture has never lost in this category.
1. All Quiet on the Western Front (Germany)
2. Argentina, 1985 (Argentina)
3. EO (Poland)
4. Close (Belgium)
5. The Quiet Girl (Ireland)
ANIMATED FEATURE
Another easy peasy, lemon squeezy winner.
1. Pinocchio
2. Turning Red
3. Marcel the Shell With Shoes On
4. Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
5. The Sea Beast
DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Nalvany has won the BAFTA and the PGA, a powerful combo, especially when it's for a film as topical as this one. Fire of Love may have the DGA and ACE, but I don't think it will topple Nalvany.
1. Nalvany
2. Fire of Love
3. All the Beauty and the Bloodshed
4. All That Breathes
5. A House Made of Splinters
ANIMATED SHORT
Strangely, and perhaps pathetically, a good title can make all the difference in the short categories, and there is no shortage here this year in the Animated Shorts. That's why some are saying that My Year of Dicks will win here. But Apple's campaign for the pleasant Boy, Mole, Fox and Horse has been huge, and it remains the most likely winner. Ice Merchants may win on sheer quality, though.
1. The Boy, The Mole, The Fox and the Horse
2. My Year of Dicks
3. Ice Merchants
4. The Flying Sailor
5. An Ostrich Told Me the World is Fake and I Think I Believe It
DOCUMENTARY SHORT
Usually a crapshoot of sorts, but Malala Yousafzai's association with Stranger at the Gate may push it ahead. But how do you vote against wonderful elephants?
1. Stranger at the Gate
2. The Elephant Whisperers
3. How Do You Measure a Year?
4. The Martha Mitchell Effect
5. Haulout
LIVE ACTION SHORT
An Irish Goodbye has been touted as the thematic winner here, given the presence of Banshees and The Quiet Girl in this year's nominees. But I think the combination of Alice Rohrwacher (Happy as Lazzaro) and none other than Alfonso Cuarón will push Le Pupille to the stage.
1. Le Pupille
2. An Irish Goodbye
3. The Red Suitcase
4. Night Ride
5. Ivalu
TALLIES
6: Everything Everywhere All At Once
4: Elvis
2: All Quiet on the Western Front
1: Avatar: The Way of Water; Babylon; The Banshees of Inisherin; The Boy, The Mole, The Fox, and teh Horse; Nalvany; Pinocchio; Le Pupille; RRR; Stranger at the Gate; Top Gun: Maverick; Women Talking;
