Oscar Predictions 2023

 

I'm doing something a bit different this year for my predictions: I'm ranking every category instead of my usual 'Will Win' and 'Might Win', with the occasional 'Dark Horse' and 'If Hell Freezes Over'. I'm doing this because it seems that there are just so many categories this year that we really don't know how they will end up. Too many photo finishes for my liking when it comes to predictions, but oh boy, does it make for an exciting evening.

PICTURE
It's pretty much written in stone that Everything Everywhere All At Once is going to be the big winner on Sunday night, but I suppose the more interesting question is: do we have an old-fashioned sweep on our hands here? I think that if there are two films that will do well on the ranked ballot that just may--maybe--have a shot at an upset, it'll be Top Gun: Maverick and All Quiet on the Western Front. That being said, with wins at the DGA, SAG, PGA and WGA, EEAAO is most definitely the one to beat. But it is a strange film, perhaps too eagerly weird for some of the more conservative members of the Academy. I don't think even a few years ago it would have gone this far, as the Academy has been expanding to a more youthful and international membership in recent times.

1. Everything Everywhere All At Once
2. All Quiet on the Western Front
3. Top Gun: Maverick
4. The Banshees of Inisherin
5. The Fabelmans
6. TÁR
7. Elvis
8. Women Talking
9. Avatar: The Way of Water
10. Triangle of Sadness

DIRECTOR
The Daniels have done very well for themselves: who woulda thunk it over a year ago, when EEAAO debuted?

1. Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert, Everything Everywhere All At Once
2. Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin
3. Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans
4. Todd Field, TÁR
5. Ruben Östlund, Triangle of Sadness

ACTRESS
It comes down to a very tight race between Yeoh and Blanchett. I think, however, the fact that Blanchett already has two Oscars, and that Yeoh's narrative is very strong (we all want to see her win an Oscar, after all) will tip the favour to almighty ass-kicker Michelle. She won the SAG, too, meaning that she has the acting branch behind her. Blanchett's performance is pretty undeniable, however: a striking, momentous achievement. I mean, Yeoh is awesome in EEAAO, but Blanchett is simply amazing, with an all-timer of a performance. The rest of the women here are just in it for the ride.

1. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All At One
2. Cate Blanchett, TÁR
3. Ana de Armas, Blonde
4. Andrea Riseborough, To Leslie
5. Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans

ACTOR
I want to say that Fraser has a better story than Butler: a beloved actor that is experiencing a very well-deserved renaissance. But somehow, I think Butler will be the winner on Sunday. I'm certainly not comfortable in this prediction, as this is one of the "coin toss" categories of the night.

1. Austin Butler, Elvis
2. Brendan Fraser, The Whale
3. Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin
4. Bill Nighy, Living
5. Paul Mescal, Aftersun

SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Jamie Lee Curtis won the SAG, which would seemingly make her the front-runner... yet she is also considered by many to be the one weak performance among the nominees. I don't think she'll take it, but once again we have a category in flux: if not Curtis, then who? Will it be Angela Bassett, the Hollywood legend finally getting her due? Or Kerry Condon, a bright light in a very well-liked film that is probably not getting an Oscar otherwise? Heck, even Hsu has a shot. In the end, I believe it will be Condon Curtis Bassett. But maybe she peaked too early in the season, as both Condon and Curtis have had the recent momentum, with their BAFTA and SAG, respectively. Argh! I honestly don't know... except that Chau has no chance. Sorry.
Huh. You know what? If Bassett was going to win here, she would've won at SAG. Condon it is, then!

1. Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin
2. Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
3. Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All At Once
4. Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All At Once
5. Hong Chau, The Whale

SUPPORTING ACTOR
Ke Huy Quan has been sweeping the entire season, and I don't see that ending here.

1. Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All At Once
2. Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin
3. Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin
4. Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans
5. Brian Tyree Henry, Causeway

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Earlier in the season, it seemed that this was going to be McDonagh's to lose, with wins at the Globes and BAFTA... but then the EEAAO sweep began. I suspect that we are going to see another sweep on Sunday night, with the Daniels winning here, as they did with Critics Choice, Spirits and WGA (which Banshees was ineligible for).

1. Everything Everywhere All At Once
2. The Banshees of Inisherin
3. TÁR
4. The Fabelmans
5. Triangle of Sadness

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Quite the interesting set of nominees here, from chamber drama to blockbuster to murder mystery. We even have a Kurosawa remake, and a remake of an early Best Picture winner. Sarah Polley is the one to beat here for Women Talking.

1. Women Talking
2. All Quiet on the Western Front
3. Glass Onion
4. Top Gun: Maverick
5. Living

CINEMATOGRAPHY
I have no idea who is actually going to win the category. Not a one. Frankly, I can see arguments for all five. We have the master himself, Deakins with a Mendes-directed film, although certainly not a successful film. We have Khondji's film directed by Iñárritu, another not very successful yet beautiful film. I think these two are at the bottom. So that leaves three: Mandy Walker for Elvis, Florian Hoffmeister for TÁR, and James Friend for All Quiet. Of these, Hoffmeister might be the most deserving, if only slightly: but I think voters won't see it that way, as it's not very "showy", especially in still shots. I think it will come down to Elvis vs. All Quiet, and I somehow don't think we'll see the first woman (!!!) win in this category. I think the BAFTA winner will repeat here.

1. All Quiet on the Western Front
2. Elvis
3. TÁR
4. Empire of Light
5. Bardo

EDITING
Finally, a (relatively) easy category. Best Picture front-runner EEAAO should pick up a trophy here, with the spoiler being Top Gun. When the BAFTAs sent EEAAO home nearly empty-handed, it still rewarded the film's editing. That's gotta mean something.

1. Everything Everywhere All At Once
2. Top Gun: Maverick
3. Elvis
4. The Banshees of Inisherin
5. TÁR

PRODUCTION DESIGN
An interesting category, as I think there are a couple of stories that could happen here: award Catherine Martin, Baz Luhrmann's wife and two-time winner in this category for Moulin Rouge! and The Great Gatsby, with another award that will twin her likely win in Costumes. Tick, tick. Or, go for the impeccable work of Babylon, which despite its (many) flaws, is a design masterpiece. But will Academy voters want to reward that film at all? I'm not sure. I'm also not sure if All Quiet will be the crafts juggernaut on Sunday evening some are touting it to be, but it also has a chance here.

1. Elvis
2. Babylon
3. All Quiet on the Western Front
4. Avatar: The Way of Water
5. The Fabelmans

COSTUMES
Catherine Martin, two-time winner in this category for Moulin Rouge! and The Great Gatsby, should have an easy time here picking this up. Ruth Carter already won here for 2018's first Black Panther, and although there are some pretty darned impressive costumes in Wakanda Forever, I think Martin has the edge. That is, if Babylon doesn't spoil.

1. Elvis
2. Babylon
3. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
4. Everything Everywhere All At Once
5. Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris

MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
The lead acting winners and this category have been going hand-in-hand in recent years, so it's down to Elvis and The Whale.  This award happens earlier in the evening, and whoever wins here will likely take Actor. But Elvis is a Best Picture nominee, and The Whale isn't, and Elvis doesn't have charges of fatphobia going after it.

1. Elvis
2. The Whale
3. All Quiet on Western Front
4. The Batman
5. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

VISUAL EFFECTS
Easy peasy, lemon squeezy.

1. Avatar: The Way of Water
2. Top Gun: Maverick
3. All Quiet on the Western Front
4. The Batman
5. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

SOUND
Do they really want to send the blockbuster sensation of the year home empty-handed? Oh, do I mean Avatar or Top Gun? Well, Avatar has Visual Effects, so that means...

1. Top Gun: Maverick
2. Avatar: The Way of Water
3. Elvis
4. All Quiet on the Western Front
5. The Batman

ORIGINAL SCORE
This is probably the most difficult crafts category of the night to predict. Pundits are completely split. If we're going on sheer quality, it's gotta be Justin Hurwitz's Babylon. But as stated before, the film hasn't been entirely well-received. So maybe it will go to the anti-war epic All Quiet, which has a killer hook. Or will EEAAO sweep the night, and pick up another win here? As others have argued, no Best Picture nominee with nominations for both Score and Song has ever lost here. And then we have 91-year old legend John Williams waiting in the wings...

1. Babylon
2. All Quiet on the Western Front
3. Everything Everywhere All At Once
4. The Fabelmans
5. The Banshees of Inisherin

ORIGINAL SONG
This performance will bring down the house, and is the very likely winner.

1. "Naatu Naatu", RRR
2. "Hold My Hand", Top Gun: Maverick
3. "Lift Me Up", Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
4. "Applause", Tell It Like a Woman
5. "This is a Life", Everything Everywhere All At Once

INTERNATIONAL FEATURE
A film nominated here and in Best Picture has never lost in this category.

1. All Quiet on the Western Front (Germany)
2. Argentina, 1985 (Argentina)
3. EO (Poland)
4. Close (Belgium)
5. The Quiet Girl (Ireland)

ANIMATED FEATURE
Another easy peasy, lemon squeezy winner.

1. Pinocchio
2. Turning Red
3. Marcel the Shell With Shoes On
4. Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
5. The Sea Beast

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Nalvany has won the BAFTA and the PGA, a powerful combo, especially when it's for a film as topical as this one. Fire of Love may have the DGA and ACE, but I don't think it will topple Nalvany.

1. Nalvany
2. Fire of Love
3. All the Beauty and the Bloodshed
4. All That Breathes
5. A House Made of Splinters

ANIMATED SHORT
Strangely, and perhaps pathetically, a good title can make all the difference in the short categories, and there is no shortage here this year in the Animated Shorts. That's why some are saying that My Year of Dicks will win here. But Apple's campaign for the pleasant Boy, Mole, Fox and Horse has been huge, and it remains the most likely winner. Ice Merchants may win on sheer quality, though.

1. The Boy, The Mole, The Fox and the Horse
2. My Year of Dicks
3. Ice Merchants
4. The Flying Sailor
5. An Ostrich Told Me the World is Fake and I Think I Believe It

 DOCUMENTARY SHORT
Usually a crapshoot of sorts, but Malala Yousafzai's association with Stranger at the Gate may push it ahead. But how do you vote against wonderful elephants?

1. Stranger at the Gate
2. The Elephant Whisperers
3. How Do You Measure a Year?
4. The Martha Mitchell Effect
5. Haulout

LIVE ACTION SHORT
An Irish Goodbye has been touted as the thematic winner here, given the presence of Banshees and The Quiet Girl in this year's nominees. But I think the combination of Alice Rohrwacher (Happy as Lazzaro) and none other than Alfonso Cuarón will push Le Pupille to the stage.

1. Le Pupille
2. An Irish Goodbye
3. The Red Suitcase
4. Night Ride
5. Ivalu

TALLIES

6: Everything Everywhere All At Once
4: Elvis
2: All Quiet on the Western Front
1: Avatar: The Way of Water; Babylon; The Banshees of Inisherin; The Boy, The Mole, The Fox, and teh Horse; Nalvany; Pinocchio; Le Pupille; RRR; Stranger at the Gate; Top Gun: Maverick; Women Talking;

Oscar Nominations 2023 Reaction

 81/105, so a B+, which isn't so bad considering it's been a wildly unstable year. Everything Everywhere All At Once has solidified itself as the front-runner with a few surprise nominations in categories such as Original Song and Costumes. All Quiet on the Western Front also did very well this morning, as did The Banshees of Inisherin; these were both expected to do well. Elvis did as well as I thought it would, which is to say, very well. TÁR did better than expected with noms in Editing and Cinematography, beating out more likely candidates. Also doing well, despite only three noms, is Triangle of Sadness: these were in Picture, Director and Screenplay. I can imagine that Dolly de Leon just missed it in Supporting Actress. So overall, lots of mini surprises, but only a few from completely out of left field (and these were mostly the case of who made it in and who didn't get nominated).

PICTURE
So it's the agreed-upon top eight, plus two mild surprises. Women Talking making it in despite missing virtually everywhere else, including the acting and music categories, is... strange.

1. Everything Everywhere All At Once
2. The Banshees of Inisherin
3. The Fabelmans
4. TÁR
5. Elvis
6. Top Gun: Maverick
7. Avatar: The Way of Water
8. All Quiet on the Western Front
13. Women Talking
15. Triangle of Sadness

8/10

DIRECTOR
Östlund is our shock nominee... but not that shocking. I may have listed him as "also in contention", but I really felt I should have listed him in the top ten.

1. Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert, Everything Everywhere All At Once
2. Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin
3. Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans
4. Todd Field, TÁR
-. Ruben Östlund, Triangle of Sadness 

4/5

ACTRESS
The most surprising category by snubbing Davis and Deadwyler (?!), who have both been in all season long. It's down to Blanchett and Yeoh, yes, but why oh why did the Academy fall for the blatant category fraud of Williams, as I wrote before? And it turns out that Riseborough's Twitter campaign actually worked. Huh.

1. Cate Blanchett, TÁR
2. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All At One
5. Ana de Armas, Blonde
6. Andrea Riseborough, To Leslie
10. Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans

3/5

ACTOR
The Agreed On Five.

1. Brendan Fraser, The Whale
2. Austin Butler, Elvis
3. Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin
4. Bill Nighy, Living
5. Paul Mescal, Aftersun

5/5

SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1. Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
2. Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin
3. Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All At Once
4. Hong Chau, The Whale
5. Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All At Once

5/5

SUPPORTING ACTOR
Woo! So Dano is switched out for his co-star Hirsch, and Brian Tyree Henry actually made it in. No Redmayne.

1. Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All At Once
2. Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin
3. Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin
8. Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans
9. Brian Tyree Henry, Causeway

3/5

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Aftersun I suspect was very under-seen, as it only made it in one category. Alas. Neat: Östlund is a double-nominee, along with Director.

1. The Banshees of Inisherin
2. Everything Everywhere All At Once
3. The Fabelmans
4. TÁR
6. Triangle of Sadness

4/5

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
I'm actually kinda shocked that Top Gun: Maverick got in here.

1. Women Talking
3. Glass Onion
4. Living
5. All Quiet on the Western Front
10. Top Gun: Maverick

4/5

CINEMATOGRAPHY
And I'm shocked that Top Gun: Maverick got in for writing, but not here. This is actually a weird line-up, considering who didn't make it in. My worst category.

2. Empire of Light
3. Elvis
7. All Quiet on the Western Front
9. TÁR
10. Bardo

2/5

EDITING
1. Everything Everywhere All At Once
2. Top Gun: Maverick
3. Elvis
5. The Banshees of Inisherin
-. TÁR

4/5

PRODUCTION DESIGN
1. Elvis
2. Babylon
3. Avatar: The Way of Water
4. The Fabelmans
5. All Quiet on the Western Front

5/5

COSTUMES
1. Elvis
2. Babylon
3. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
4. Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris
9. Everything Everywhere All At Once

4/5

MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
1. Elvis
2. The Whale
3. The Batman
4. All Quiet on Western Front
9. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

4/5

VISUAL EFFECTS
1. Avatar: The Way of Water
2. Top Gun: Maverick
3. The Batman
4. All Quiet on the Western Front
5. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

5/5

SOUND
1. Top Gun: Maverick
2. Elvis
3. Avatar: The Way of Water
5. All Quiet on the Western Front
8. The Batman

4/5

ORIGINAL SCORE
1. Babylon
3. The Fabelmans
4. The Banshees of Inisherin
6. Everything Everywhere All At Once
8. All Quiet on the Western Front

3/5

ORIGINAL SONG
1. "Naatu Naatu", RRR
2. "Hold My Hand", Top Gun: Maverick
3. "Lift Me Up", Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
6. "Applause", Tell It Like a Woman
9. "This is a Life", Everything Everywhere All At Once

3/5

INTERNATIONAL FEATURE
Decision to Leave's miss here is actually quite surprising, considering it was in the running for Screenplay and Director.

1. All Quiet on the Western Front (Germany)
3. Argentina, 1985 (Argentina)
4. EO (Poland)
6. Close (Belgium)
10. The Quiet Girl (Ireland)

3/5

ANIMATED FEATURE
1. Pinocchio
2. Turning Red
3. Marcel the Shell With Shoes On
4. Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
-. The Sea Beast

4/5

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
1. All That Breathes
2. All the Beauty and the Bloodshed
3. Nalvany
5. Fire of Love
-. A House Made of Splinters

4/5

TALLIES

11: Everything Everywhere All At Once
9: All Quiet on the Western Front; The Banshees of Inisherin
8: Elvis
7: The Fabelmans
6: TÁR; Top Gun: Maverick
5: Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
4: Avatar: The Way of Water
3: Babylon; The Batman; Triangle of Sadness; The Whale
2: Living; Women Talking

Oscar Nominations Predictions 2023

PICTURE
What a competitive year. It seems that there are three films that are in the running for the win (EEAAO, Banshees, Fabelmans), but beyond that, it's a wide-open field. I'm quite confident in TÁR, Elvis and Top Gun. So what about the last four spots? Will there be an international surprise, like RRR? The German entry All Quiet on the Western Front just made news by having 14 nominations at the British Academy awards. Avatar's sequel is making huge money, and has been an audience favourite. Aftersun is the year's best-reviewed film. The Whale is making people openly weep in the theatres -- although not without some controversy. And what about the even more divisive Babylon, which still has quite a few champions rooting for it? As you can see, there's just so many cases to be made, that it's difficult to decide who will make the final ten. In addition, I see such cases made for Guillermo del Toro's very well received Pinocchio, Sarah Polley's strangely under-represented Women Talking (a former front-runner), another audience favourite with Glass Onion, and the very topical (and Cannes winner) Triangle of Sadness. I just don't know, but I think we're going to see more than one surprise on Tuesday.

1. Everything Everywhere All At Once
2. The Banshees of Inisherin
3. The Fabelmans
4. TÁR
5. Elvis
6. Top Gun: Maverick
7. Avatar: The Way of Water
8. All Quiet on the Western Front
9. Aftersun
10. The Whale
11. Babylon
12. Pinocchio
13. Women Talking
14. Glass Onion
15. Triangle of Sadness
16. The Woman King
17. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
18. RRR
19. She Said
20. Nope


DIRECTOR
The DGA five are the Daniels, McDonagh, Spielberg, Field, and Kosinski. It's likely that this will be the Oscar five, but a director usually sneaks in that represents global cinema. The likely candidates for that are Berger and Park, but Rajamouli won both the New York and LA film critics' awards, and the film is beloved among film types. That is not to write off Luhrmann, whom quite a few are suggesting will be the surprise of the morning, as Elvis is likely to rack up nominations. Simply put, this is another very competitive category, and one that is ripe for a shocker or two. Maybe that will be Wells or Östlund.

1. Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert, Everything Everywhere All At Once
2. Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin
3. Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans
4. Todd Field, TÁR
5. Joseph Kosinski, Top Gun: Maverick
6. Edward Berger, All Quiet on the Western Front
7. Park Chan-wook, Decision to Leave
8. Baz Luhrmann, Elvis
9. S.S. Rajamouli, RRR
10. Charlotte Wells, Aftersun
Also in contention: James Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water; Ruben Östlund, Triangle of Sadness: Gina Pryce-Blythewood, The Woman King: Sarah Polley, Women Talking: Darren Aronofsky, The Whale

ACTRESS
It really has come down to a photo-finish between Blanchett and Yeoh. Davis and Deadwyler are also very solid choices, but from there, it gets a bit murkier. There's been a wave of buzz from some fellow actors for Riseborough, but will that pan out? Or is that just Twitter being Twitter? de Armas seems to be a very divisive choice, as the film is widely hated, but then again she has been racking up the nominations, including with SAG. It strikes me as a fantastic performance in a derided film kind of situation, which happens with some frequency at the Oscars. I think the rest are long shots, but Williams is a very interesting case of someone who has been promoted as a lead, when she is clearly a supporting performance. When the studio decided to go for lead actress instead, it was met with a big "Well, then, there goes her Oscar." There's some talk of her actually being nominated in the supporting category come nominations morning, but I think this (blatant) category fraud has cost her.

1. Cate Blanchett, TÁR
2. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All At One
3. Viola Davis, The Woman King
4. Danielle Deadwyler, Till
5. Ana de Armas, Blonde
6. Andrea Riseborough, To Leslie
7. Margot Robbie, Babylon
8. Emma Thompson, Good Luck to You, Leo Grande
9. Olivia Colman, Empire of Light
10. Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans

ACTOR
The top four here are very widely considered locks, with many going for Mescal in the fifth slot. Sandler got the Screen Actors Guild nomination, but that has been met with great skepticism that it will translate to Oscar glory. Fraser and Butler are very much in the lead, and Farrell at one point was also considered a front-runner. Yet this category has been considered "weak" this year, despite some impressive work from Calva, Pope, and a variety of international performers.

1. Brendan Fraser, The Whale
2. Austin Butler, Elvis
3. Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin
4. Bill Nighy, Living
5. Paul Mescal, Aftersun
6. Adam Sandler, Hustle
7. Hugh Jackman, The Son
8. Diego Calva, Babylon
9. Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick
10. Jeremy Pope, The Inspection
Also in contention: Adam Driver, White Noise; Felix Kammerer, All Quiet on the Western Front

SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Bassett has been a very welcome nominee, as she is beloved in the industry, but this category has been cited as one that is also very competitive. Condon and JLC have also been widely nominated, but many EEAAO fans are vocal in seeing Hsu nominated over her co-star, to which I say: why not both? Chau has also been called a highlight of her film, but so has de Leon. I am sticking with this order I have below, as it is what the evidence is showing, but I somehow expect JLC to miss out over Hsu, Chau and de Leon. Interestingly, Mulligan, Foy, and Buckley were previously considered favourites in this category, but have fallen in the past month or so. I've already written about the Williams case, so what about two potential surprises: Monáe and Hoss. Both have been praised for their supporting roles, in two very well-received films. Once again, a category that seems wide-open beyond the top two.

1. Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
2. Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin
3. Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All At Once
4. Hong Chau, The Whale
5. Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All At Once
6. Dolly de Leon, Triangle of Sadness
7. Carey Mulligan, She Said
8. Claire Foy, Women Talking
9. Janelle Monáe, Glass Onion
10. Jessie Buckley, Women Talking
Also in contention: Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans; Nina Hoss, TÁR

SUPPORTING ACTOR
Quan has been sweeping the season, and just like Fraser, it's an emotional comeback. The two men from Banshees are very likely... but yet again, it's a true competition beyond that, with four performances battling it out. I think Dano is pretty safe in a Best Picture front-runner. Redmayne may be Twitter-hated, but he's actor-loved, so I think he may repeat his recent successes from the precursors and get the fifth spot. That leaves Whishaw and Pitt. Whishaw is a highlight from a film that has been forgotten about in the guilds, critic circles and other awarding bodies: will he make it in? And as for Pitt, I just don't see the passion for him, but then again...

1. Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All At Once
2. Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin
3. Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin
4. Paul Dano, The Fabelmans
5. Eddie Redmayne, The Good Nurse
6. Ben Whishaw, Women Talking
7. Brad Pitt, Babylon
8. Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans
9. Brian Tyree Henry, Causeway
10. Mark Rylance, Bones & All

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
I think this is a rather sensible predicted order of events, if I may say so myself. I think Park and Östlund's films are the most likely to take the final spot from Aftersun.

1. The Banshees of Inisherin
2. Everything Everywhere All At Once
3. The Fabelmans
4. TÁR
5. Aftersun
6. Triangle of Sadness
7. Decision of Leave
8. The Menu
9. Babylon
10. Elvis

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Strangely, this has been called a "weak" category this year, and is also the only category that Polley's film has stayed a front-runner.

1. Women Talking
2. The Whale
3. Glass Onion
4. Living
5. All Quiet on the Western Front
6. She Said
7. Pinocchio
8. White Noise
9. Bones & All
10. Top Gun: Maverick
Also in contention: Marcel the Shell With Shoes On

CINEMATOGRAPHY
1. Top Gun: Maverick
2. Empire of Light
3. Elvis
4. The Batman
5. Avatar: The Way of Water
6. The Fabelmans
7. All Quiet on the Western Front
8. Babylon
9. TÁR
10. Bardo
Also in contention: Nope; The Banshees of Inisherin; EO

EDITING
1. Everything Everywhere All At Once
2. Top Gun: Maverick
3. Elvis
4. The Fabelmans
5. The Banshees of Inisherin
6. Avatar: The Way of Water
7. Babylon
8. Glass Onion
9. All Quiet on the Western Front
10. Decision to Leave
Also in contention: TÁR; Triangle of Sadness; Women Talking

PRODUCTION DESIGN
1. Elvis
2. Babylon
3. Avatar: The Way of Water
4. The Fabelmans
5. All Quiet on the Western Front
6. Pinocchio
7. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
8. Glass Onion
9. Everything Everywhere All At Once
10. The Batman
Also in contention: White Noise; Empire of Light

COSTUMES
1. Elvis
2. Babylon
3. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
4. Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris
5. Corsage
6. The Fabelmans
7. Women Talking
8. The Woman King
9. Everything Everywhere All At Once
10. The Northman

MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
1. Elvis
2. The Whale
3. The Batman
4. All Quiet on Western Front
5. Babylon
6. Blonde
7. Crimes of the Future
8. Amsterdam
9. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
10. Emancipation

VISUAL EFFECTS
1. Avatar: The Way of Water
2. Top Gun: Maverick
3. The Batman
4. All Quiet on the Western Front
5. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
6. Nope
7. Thirteen Lives
8. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness
9. Jurassic World: Dominion
10. Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore

SOUND
1. Top Gun: Maverick
2. Elvis
3. Avatar: The Way of Water
4. Babylon
5. All Quiet on the Western Front
6. Everything Everywhere All At Once
7. Moonage Daydream
8. The Batman
9. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
10. Pinocchio

ORIGINAL SCORE
1. Babylon
2. Women Talking
3. The Fabelmans
4. The Banshees of Inisherin
5. Pinocchio
6. Everything Everywhere All At Once
7. The Woman King
8. All Quiet on the Western Front
9. Avatar: The Way of Water
10. Glass Onion
Also in contention: She Said; Black Panther: Wakanda Forever; Nope

ORIGINAL SONG
1. "Naatu Naatu", RRR
2. "Hold My Hand", Top Gun: Maverick
3. "Lift Me Up", Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
4. "Ciao Papa", Pinocchio
5. "New Body Rhumba", White Noise
6. "Applause", Tell It Like a Woman
7. "Carolina", Where the Crawdads Sing
8. "Stand Up", Till
9. "This is a Life", Everything Everywhere All At Once
10. "Nothing is Lost (You Give Me Strength)", Avatar: The Way of Water

INTERNATIONAL FEATURE
1. All Quiet on the Western Front (Germany)
2. Decision to Leave (South Korea)
3. Argentina, 1985 (Argentina)
4. EO (Poland)
5. Saint Omer (France)
6. Close (Belgium)
7. Holy Spider (Denmark)
8. Corsage (Austria)
9. Bardo (Mexico)
10. The Quiet Girl (Ireland)
Also in contention: Joyland (Pakistan); Return to Seoul (Cambodia)

ANIMATED FEATURE
1. Pinocchio
2. Turning Red
3. Marcel the Shell With Shoes On
4. Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
5. Wendell and Wild
6. The Bad Guys
7. My Father's Dragon
8. Inu-Oh
9. Strange World
10. Minions: The Rise of Gru
Also in contention: Lightyear; The Sea Beast

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
1. All That Breathes
2. All the Beauty and the Bloodshed
3. Nalvany
4. Moonage Daydream
5. Fire of Love

TALLIES

9: The Banshees of Inisherin
8: Elvis; Everything Everywhere All At Once
7: All Quiet on the Western Front; The Fabelmans; Top Gun: Maverick
5: Avatar: The Way of Water; Babylon; The Whale
4: Black Panther: Wakanda Forever; TÁR
3: Aftersun; The Batman; Pinocchio
2: Women Talking; Living