This year has been a strange one, in that there is still not a major frontrunner that has all the stats behind it. The film that we're mostly predicting, Three Billboards, is lacking a director nomination. The Shape of Water would then be the one to go for -- but it missed the all-important SAG nomination for ensemble. This seems to be a very important stat to note, as the Academy is made mostly of actors. We have to think about which films will be eliminated first, and then which films will be ranked #2 and #3 on their ballots. It seems that Three Billboards may be the consensus choice, rather than The Shape of Water, as it won the Globe, the SAG, and now the BAFTA, another organization that is dominated by the actors' branch. Then what about Get Out or Lady Bird? I think these two films are the biggest threats to make a 'surprise' win, as they also seem to be both consensus choices and passion-vote grabbers... but of the two, I think it would be the generally pleasant Lady Bird, rather than the somewhat divisive Get Out (i.e. there are more people who dislike Get Out than Lady Bird, even if it's still a small number, as well as the 'genre' hurdle for a horror film to win BP).
So how does this add up? By making a ranked list. It looks like the battle is between Three Billboards and Shape, with Lady Bird and Get Out as possible spoilers. (Although -- I wouldn't rule out a shocker of a win for the likely Adapted Screenplay winner Call Me By Your Name.)
Best Picture
1. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
2. The Shape of Water
3. Lady Bird
4. Get Out
5. Call Me By Your Name
6. Dunkirk
7. Phantom Thread
8. Darkest Hour
9. The Post
Director
A slam dunk for del Toro, making all of the Three Amigos to be Oscar winners for Directing. Olé!
Will Win: Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water
Could Win, I Guess?: Jordan Peele, Get Out
Actress
Also a slam dunk for McDormand.
Will Win: Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Could Win: Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird
Actor
Is Oldman as strong as we think he is? Some are suspecting a Chalamet spoiler, given the greater acclaim for his film.
Will Win: Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
Could Win: Timothée Chalamet, Call Me By Your Name
Supporting Actress
Early in the season, it looked like a close battle between Metcalf and Janey, but Janey has pulled ahead.
Will Win: Allison Janey, I, Tonya
Could Win: Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird
Supporting Actor
Also a close battle early in the season, but it looks like Rockwell has this in the bag.
Will Win: Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Could Win: Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
Original Screenplay
This will reveal a lot early in the night. If Three Billboards wins here, as I suspect it will, I don't think a Get Out or Lady Bird surprise is brewing. But if either of these films win, well... we know how the last few Oscars have played out. (Screenplay Win = Best Picture Win for Spotlight, Moonlight and Birdman) For the record, Get Out has been the consensus choice by pundits for the win here.
Will Win: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Could Win: Get Out
Maybe?: Lady Bird
Adapted Screenplay
Ivory has returned, and he will be rewarded.
Will Win: Call Me By Your Name
Far Behind: Mudbound
Editing
Three technical categories are a battle between these two films, but consensus says Dunkirk will reign supreme.
Will Win: Dunkirk
Could Win: Baby Driver
Cinematography
As I said before, Deakins looks to FINALY win... if a del Toro film doesn't win again.
Will Win: Blade Runner 2049
Could Win: The Shape of Water
Production Design
I'm having difficulties with this one, but Shape is probably winning here, and perhaps deservingly so.
Will Win: The Shape of Water
Could Win: Blade Runner 2049
Costume Design
It's a film about clothing. It's probably getting the Oscar for costume design.
Will Win: Phantom Thread
Could Win: Beauty and the Beast
Makeup and Hairstyling
Will Win: Darkest Hour
Far Behind: Wonder
Original Score
I felt that Shape's score was a weakness of the film, as it was just a bit overbearing at times... but evidently, people are disagreeing with me. But wouldn't a Johnny Greenwood win be awesome?
Will Win: The Shape of Water
Could Win: Phantom Thread
Original Song
Will Win: "Remember Me", Coco
Could Win: "The Mystery of Love", Call Me By Your Name
Sound Mixing
Will Win: Dunkirk
Could Win: Baby Driver
Sound Editing
Will Win: Dunkirk
Could Win: Baby Driver
Visual Effects
Surprisingly, the Planet of the Apes series hasn't won yet in this category. Maybe that's a sign it'll lose again? But for what? Blade Runner 2049 may be the spoiler.
Will Win: War for the Planet of the Apes
Could Win: Blade Runner 2049
Animated Feature
Slam dunk, again.
Will Win: Coco
Could Win, I Guess?: Loving Vincent
Documentary Feature
In which cinema treasure Agnès Varda will actually win an Oscar.
Will Win: Faces Places
Could Win: Icarus
Foreign Language Feature
The two films that are probably the most acclaimed --Palme d'Or winner The Square and Loveless-- are also the chilliest of the bunch. Hence, Chile sneaks in and takes the win for its audience pleaser.
Will Win: A Fantastic Woman
Could Win: The Square
Live Action Short
Will Win: DeKalb Elementary
Could Win: The Silent Child
Documentary Short
Will Win: Edith+Eddie
Could Win: Heaven is a Traffic Jam on the 405
Animated Short
And another slam dunk win for Dear Basketball, making Kobe Bryant an Oscar winner. Who woulda thunk it?
Will Win: Dear Basketball
Could Win: Lou
Then Again, What Do We Know?: Garden Party
