79/103
If I did the math right, was this my worst year since I've been keeping track? I
certainly seems so, dipping into the 70s, but then I remembered: one
less category. Sound has been consolidated. So if I add three (let's say I got 3/5 to match each category to what I actually got), I get 82, which is about par.
So I think the story of this year is Judas and the Black Messiah, which has six nominations, including Best Picture and two in Supporting Actor -- four more than the two nominations I was expecting. Ma Rainey's Black Bottom didn't do quite as well as I was guessing, but I think in retrospect it makes sense. Interesting to see it miss out on Picture along with One Night in Miami, as both are stage adaptations, and although I haven't seen them yet, word is that both are, well, stagey.
Nomadland seems to be the frontrunner here now, as Trial missed out on a crucial Directing nomination: but as we have seen, this hasn't meant much the past few years. Green Book, anyone?
Best Picture
I've been over the past few years getting all of these correct. Not this year! Ma Rainey and One Night in Miami miss out.
1. Nomadland
2. The Trial of the Chicago 7
3. Minari
4. Promising Young Woman
5. Mank
8. Sound of Metal
11. Judas and the Black Messiah
13. The Father
6/8
Director
There were rumblings online that Vinterberg would be the surprise here, and they were correct. Happy to see two women become nominees. Sorry, Sorkin!
1. Chloé Zhao, Nomadland
2. David Fincher, Mank
4. Lee Isaac Chung, Minari
5. Emerald Fennell, Promising Young Woman
10. Thomas Vinterberg, Another Round
4/5
Actress
1. Viola Davis, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
2. Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman
3. Frances McDormand, Nomadland
4. Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday
5. Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman
5/5
Actor
1. Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
2. Anthony Hopkins, The Father
3. Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal
4. Gary Oldman, Mank
5. Steven Yuen, Minari
5/5
Supporting Actress
1. Olivia Colman, The Father
2. Yuh-Jung Youn, Minari
3. Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
5. Amanda Seyfried, Mank
6. Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy
4/5
Supporting Actor
No one, and as far as I can tell, no one expected Judas to get two nominations here. Apparently the film is without a lead?
1. Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah
2. Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7
3. Leslie Odom Jr., One Night in Miami
4. Paul Raci, Sound of Metal
-. Lakeith Stanfield, Judas and the Black Messiah
4/5
Original Screenplay
A strong category, but Mank missing out is the story here. Sorry, David Fincher's father.
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7
2. Promising Young Woman
3. Minari
5. Sound of Metal
7. Judas and the Black Messiah
4/5
Adapted Screenplay
Okay, I loved hearing Borat Subsequent Moviefilm's full title and writing team being read aloud. Hilarious.
1. Nomadland
2. One Night in Miami
3. The Father
7. Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
9. The White Tiger
3/5
Editing
Mank didn't do as well as I thought it would, and with it missing here and in Original Screenplay.
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7
2. Nomadland
4. Sound of Metal
5. Promising Young Woman
6. The Father
4/5
Cinematography
I was right: there are surprises here. Minari misses out, and Judas continues its streak.
1. Nomadland
2. Mank
3. News of the World
6. The Trial of the Chicago 7
7. Judas and the Black Messiah
3/5
Production Design
Certainly didn't see The Father walking in here.
1. Mank
2. Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
3. News of the World
5. Tenet
-. The Father
4/5
Costume Design
Didn't expect Pinocchio to be double-nominated this year.
1. Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
2. Mank
3. Emma.
4. Mulan
-. Pinocchio
4/5
Makeup and Hairstyling
I really didn't want to see Hillbilly Elegy to be nominated here, but it was. It might win, too.
1. Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
2. Mank
3. Hillbilly Elegy
5. Emma.
6. Pinocchio
4/5
Original Score
NIN are double nominees. Wow!
1. Soul
2. Mank
3. Minari
4. News of the World
7. Da 5 Bloods
4/5
Original Song
It's rare that I get more than three here, let alone all five nominees.
1. "Speak Now", One Night in Miami
2. "Io Si (Seen)", The Life Ahead
3. "Fight for You", Judas and the Black Messiah
4. "Hear My Voice", The Trial of the Chicago 7
5. "Husavik", Eurovision Song Contest
5/5
Sound
Formerly Sound Mixing and Sound (Effects) Editing. For my score, assume this is doubled.
1. Sound of Metal
2. Mank
3. Soul
6. News of the World
7. Greyhound
3/5
Visual Effects
I found this to be a rather strange line-up, given the two surprises. I'm not even sure if I had heard of The One and Only Ivan before I started researching possible nominees.
1. Tenet
2. The Midnight Sky
3. Mulan
7. The One and Only Ivan
9. Love and Monsters
3/5
Animated Feature
I correctly predicted the selected five, foreseeing that the branch wouldn't nominate The Croods sequel.
1. Soul
2. Wolfwalkers
3. Onward
4. Over the Moon
5. Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon
International Feature
Two surprises!
1. Another Round (Denmark)
2. Quo Vadis, Aida? (Bosnia and Herzegovina)
3. Collective (Romania)
-. Better Days (Hong Kong)
-. The Man Who Sold His Skin
3/5
Documentary Feature
My worst category this year. Mole Agent surprises out of nowhere, and two well-received films that were expected to show up didn't. Always a tough call, this category is.
1. Time
2. Collective
6. Crip Camp
8. My Octopus Teacher
-. The Mole Agent
2/5
TALLIES
Films With More Than One Nomination
Nominations (Predicted Nominations)
Mank - 10 (13)
Judas and the Black Messiah - 6 (2)
Minari - 6 (7)
Nomadland - 6 (6)
Sound of Metal - 6 (6)
The Father - 6 (3)
The Trial of the Chicago 7 - 6 (6)
Ma Rainey's Black Bottom - 5 (8)
Promising Young Woman - 5 (5)
News of the World - 4 (5)
One Night in Miami - 3 (4)
Soul- 3 (4)
Tenet - 2 (4)
Mulan - 2 (3)
Another Round - 2 (1)
Borat Subsequent Moviefilm - 2 (1)
Collective - 2 (2)
Emma. - 2 (2)
Hillbilly Elegy - 2 (0)
Pinocchio - 2 (0)
Da 5 Bloods - 1 (2)
