Best Picture
This has been a 'spread-the-wealth' year the kinds I've never seen before. Of the major guilds, each have given their awards to different films: DGA (Roma), PGA (Green Book), SAG (Black Panther), WGA (Eighth Grade and Can You Ever Forgive Me?), ASC (Cold War), ACE (Bohemian Rhapsody and The Favourite). So any way you cut it, history will be made and stats will be broken on Sunday. The BAFTAs went with Roma, the Globes with Green Book and Bohemian Rhapsody, the Critics Choice with Roma again -- does this suggest that Roma will be the big winner? But it's a Netflix distributed film, and a foreign language feature: neither have won the Oscar for Best Picture before, even though foreign language flicks have been up for the nomination plenty of times before. I see some people suggesting that Green Book will benefit from Oscar voters' notorious "feel good liberalism", and with it winning the preferential ballot of the PGA, it's not a bad call. But what else would Green Book win? Supporting Actor, yes, and maybe Screenplay. But the nominations didn't really show a passionate showing for Green Book, with it missing the all-important Directing nod. Not that we haven't seen a film losing Picture without one (hello, Argo!), but that was considered a huge snub for a director that was winning precursor awards. Farrelly is no Affleck. So if it isn't Green Book, and Roma seems too risky for you, what wins? A Star is Born is dead in the water, Bohemian Rhapsody and Vice derided by many. Black Panther won the Screen Actors Guild, but it's a superhero movie. So your alternatives are BlacKkKlansman and The Favourite; Lee's film has one zero precursors. At least The Favourite won a BAFTA for Best British Film and the editing guild. Still, all this adds up to nothing as the frontrunner, which is very unusual.
So what am I going with? Roma. It has the passionate voters, will probably do well on the preferential ballot, is probably winning Director, isn't mired with controversy like some other films have been, and is the nominations leader (including two unexpected acting nominees).
Will Win: Roma
Could Win: Green Book
1. Roma
2. Green Book
3. The Favourite
4. BlacKkKlansman
5. Black Panther
6. Bohemian Rhapsody
7. A Star is Born
8. Vice
Director
This seems to be one of the few categories of the night that seem like a sure thing. Cuarón's achievement has been seen by many as undeniable, and he's been sweeping the awards circuit. I suspect his competitors will be far behind.
Will Win: Alfonso Cuarón, Roma
Could Win: Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman
Actress
Will Close finally win her Oscar? Many are saying so, but I'm not as confident. Yes, it's a great narrative for her, but it's the film's only nomination and it wasn't exactly a box-office smash. So who is her competitor? I say it's Colman, whose film has been experiencing a bit of a windfall behind it lately. Gaga peaked too soon, and the other two are just in for the ride.
Will Win: Glenn Close, The Wife
Could Win: Olivia Colman, The Favourite
Actor
It's a battle here between Malek and Bale, both of whom have been winning the precursors. It's probably Malek's to lose, however, as the film is carried by his performance and may have been so successful mainly because of him. Vice has been playing it low lately.
Will Win: Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
Could Win: Christian Bale, Vice
Supporting Actress
Now, this is a bloody battlefield of a category. I have seen arguments for any of the five to win. The SAG winner, Emily Blunt, isn't even nominated here, and King in turn wasn't nominated for the SAG but has been winning everything else. Is it hers to lose? Adams would benefit from being very overdue, but for this performance? I don't see it happening. Weisz is considered to be the more likely of the two from The Favourite, and I think she's just behind King for the win. Marina de Tavira was a surprise on nominations morning, but she could benefit from being in a beloved film.
Will Win: Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk
Could Win: Rachel Weisz, The Favourite
Supporting Actor
It comes down between Ali and Grant here, with Ali being the more likely as the SAG winner. But is it too soon after his win for Moonlight? If voters think it is, and for a film that has been rather controversial lately, they may actually give it to Grant.
Will Win: Mahershala Ali, Green Book
Could Win: Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Original Screenplay
The WGA didn't clear things up in the screenplay categories, especially here in Original, with Eighth Grade winning there... and not even being nominated for the Oscar. Many predicted that Green Book would have won the WGA, and the fact that it didn't spells trouble for me. Roma is seen more as a directorial achievement, and First Reformed is probably too small to win (even though it did very well with critics). Vice isn't happening. So that leaves the well-liked The Favourite to win.
Will Win: The Favourite
Could Win: Green Book
Adapted Screenplay
Spike Lee is probably finally winning an Oscar for BlacKkKlansman, and it's a pretty deserving win. His competitor is If Beale Street Could Talk, but I don't see Barry Jenkins being a two-time Oscar winner before Lee wins even one. But! Lee lost the WGA to Can You Ever Forgive Me?, so maybe he's not as locked as we think he is.
Will Win: BlacKkKlansman
Could Win: If Beale Street Could Talk
Editing
Now here's an interesting category. Will Vice, with its whizz-bang style of editing, win an Oscar despite the film being rather luke-warmly received? That's what many are predicting... but I'm not buying it. But what does that leave? ACE winners The Favourite or Bohemian Rhapsody? I really don't think it'll be Green Book (why was that even nominated??), but I'm feeling the vibe of BlacKkKlansman. This category is probably my gutsiest move this year. Smart money would be on BoRhap, but you gotta differentiate yourself somehow!
Will Win: BlacKkKlansman
Could Win: Bohemian Rhapsody
Cinematography
Cuarón was his own cinematographer for Roma, which has been sweeping the awards circuit. Where it didn't win was at the ASC, which gave it to Cold War. Does that spell trouble for Cuarón? Somehow, I don't think so.
Will Win: Roma
Could Win: Cold War
Production Design
A Best Picture nominated period piece or Afro-futurism? That's the choice here between The Favourite and Black Panther. I suspect they'll go with the period piece... but don't count out Roma.
Will Win: The Favourite
Could Win: Black Panther
Costume Design
See Production Design.
Will Win: The Favourite
Could Win: Black Panther
Makeup and Hairstyling
Old Age Makeup + Best Actor nomination = Oscar Winner!
Will Win: Vice
Could Win: Mary, Queen of Scots
Original Score
Tough call here. Best Picture nominees tend to do well in this category, but by all accounts Beale Street is gorgeous work. Mary Poppins is probably the big spoiler here, though. But really, after First Man's snub here, it's anyone's guess. Maybe Grammy-winning Black Panther? If so, that's the only category I'm giving it.
Will Win: Black Panther
Could Win: If Beale Street Could Talk
Original Song
Perhaps other than Directing, the only "safe" category of the night. Lady Gaga will win her Oscar.
Will Win: "Shallow", A Star is Born
Could Win: "The Place Where the Lost Things Go", Mary Poppins Returns
Sound Mixing
Smart money is usually on a Best Picture nominee, and that both categories will go to the same film (and often to the Editing winner, too), but I suspect that First Man will do well here. That being said, I think the split will be in Bohemian Rhapsody's favour here. (Yes, that means that I'm splitting Editing/Sound Mixing/Sound Editing to three films.)
Will Win: Bohemian Rhapsody
Could Win: First Man
Sound Editing
Will Win: First Man
Could Win: Bohemian Rhapsody
Visual Effects
Will a small film beat a VFX-heavy blockbuster again this year? My bet is: "yes".
Will Win: First Man
Could Win: Avengers: Infinity War
Animated Feature
Who woulda thunk that another Spider-Man film would be such an awards darling?
Will Win: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
Could Win: Incredibles 2
Foreign Language
Roma has been doing very, very well this year, and if I'm giving it Best Picture, why wouldn't you give it this category, as well? Unless you're thinking "I want to give Cold War an award, too." Then you would get a split.
Will Win: Roma (Mexico)
Could Win: Cold War (Poland)
Documentary Feature
This seems like a very close race between the thrilling Free Solo and the timely film about the beloved RBG. BAFTA went with Free Solo, so...
Will Win: Free Solo
Could Win: RBG
Animated Short
The delightful, Toronto-set tearjerker Bao looks to be the winner here.
Will Win: Bao
Could Win: Weekends
Documentary Short
Just going with my gut.
Will Win: Period. End of Sentence.
Could Win: Black Sheep
Live Action Short
Been hearing a lot about Marguerite. I haven't seen any of them.
Will Win: Marguerite
Could Win: Skin
Picture: Roma
Director: Cuarón, Roma
Actress: Close, The Wife
Actor: Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
Supporting Actress: King, If Beale Street Could Talk
Supporting Actor: Ali, Green Book
Original Screenplay: The Favourite
Adapted Screenplay: BlacKkKlansman
Editing: BlacKkKlansman
Cinematography: Roma
Production Design: The Favourite
Costume Design: The Favourite
Makeup and Hairstyling: Vice
Score: Black Panther
Song: "Shallow", A Star is Born
Sound Mixing: Bohemian Rhapsody
Sound Editing: First Man
Visual Effects: First Man
Animated Feature: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
Foreign Language: Roma
Documentary Feature: Free Solo
Animated Short: Bao
Documentary Short: Period. End of Sentence.
Live Action Short: Marguerite
4: Roma
3: The Favourite
2: BlacKkKlansman, Bohemian Rhapsody, First Man
