PICTURE
What a competitive year. It seems that there are three films that are in the running for the win (EEAAO, Banshees, Fabelmans), but beyond that, it's a wide-open field. I'm quite confident in TÁR, Elvis and Top Gun. So what about the last four spots? Will there be an international surprise, like RRR? The German entry All Quiet on the Western Front just made news by having 14 nominations at the British Academy awards. Avatar's sequel is making huge money, and has been an audience favourite. Aftersun is the year's best-reviewed film. The Whale is making people openly weep in the theatres -- although not without some controversy. And what about the even more divisive Babylon, which still has quite a few champions rooting for it? As you can see, there's just so many cases to be made, that it's difficult to decide who will make the final ten. In addition, I see such cases made for Guillermo del Toro's very well received Pinocchio, Sarah Polley's strangely under-represented Women Talking (a former front-runner), another audience favourite with Glass Onion, and the very topical (and Cannes winner) Triangle of Sadness. I just don't know, but I think we're going to see more than one surprise on Tuesday.
1. Everything Everywhere All At Once
2. The Banshees of Inisherin
3. The Fabelmans
4. TÁR
5. Elvis
6. Top Gun: Maverick
7. Avatar: The Way of Water
8. All Quiet on the Western Front
9. Aftersun
10. The Whale
11. Babylon
12. Pinocchio
13. Women Talking
14. Glass Onion
15. Triangle of Sadness
16. The Woman King
17. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
18. RRR
19. She Said
20. Nope
DIRECTOR
The DGA five are the Daniels, McDonagh, Spielberg, Field, and Kosinski. It's likely that this will be the Oscar five, but a director usually sneaks in that represents global cinema. The likely candidates for that are Berger and Park, but Rajamouli won both the New York and LA film critics' awards, and the film is beloved among film types. That is not to write off Luhrmann, whom quite a few are suggesting will be the surprise of the morning, as Elvis is likely to rack up nominations. Simply put, this is another very competitive category, and one that is ripe for a shocker or two. Maybe that will be Wells or Östlund.
1. Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert, Everything Everywhere All At Once
2. Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin
3. Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans
4. Todd Field, TÁR
5. Joseph Kosinski, Top Gun: Maverick
6. Edward Berger, All Quiet on the Western Front
7. Park Chan-wook, Decision to Leave
8. Baz Luhrmann, Elvis
9. S.S. Rajamouli, RRR
10. Charlotte Wells, Aftersun
Also in contention: James Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water; Ruben Östlund, Triangle of Sadness: Gina Pryce-Blythewood, The Woman King: Sarah Polley, Women Talking: Darren Aronofsky, The Whale
ACTRESS
It really has come down to a photo-finish between Blanchett and Yeoh. Davis and Deadwyler are also very solid choices, but from there, it gets a bit murkier. There's been a wave of buzz from some fellow actors for Riseborough, but will that pan out? Or is that just Twitter being Twitter? de Armas seems to be a very divisive choice, as the film is widely hated, but then again she has been racking up the nominations, including with SAG. It strikes me as a fantastic performance in a derided film kind of situation, which happens with some frequency at the Oscars. I think the rest are long shots, but Williams is a very interesting case of someone who has been promoted as a lead, when she is clearly a supporting performance. When the studio decided to go for lead actress instead, it was met with a big "Well, then, there goes her Oscar." There's some talk of her actually being nominated in the supporting category come nominations morning, but I think this (blatant) category fraud has cost her.
1. Cate Blanchett, TÁR
2. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All At One
3. Viola Davis, The Woman King
4. Danielle Deadwyler, Till
5. Ana de Armas, Blonde
6. Andrea Riseborough, To Leslie
7. Margot Robbie, Babylon
8. Emma Thompson, Good Luck to You, Leo Grande
9. Olivia Colman, Empire of Light
10. Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans
ACTOR
The top four here are very widely considered locks, with many going for Mescal in the fifth slot. Sandler got the Screen Actors Guild nomination, but that has been met with great skepticism that it will translate to Oscar glory. Fraser and Butler are very much in the lead, and Farrell at one point was also considered a front-runner. Yet this category has been considered "weak" this year, despite some impressive work from Calva, Pope, and a variety of international performers.
1. Brendan Fraser, The Whale
2. Austin Butler, Elvis
3. Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin
4. Bill Nighy, Living
5. Paul Mescal, Aftersun
6. Adam Sandler, Hustle
7. Hugh Jackman, The Son
8. Diego Calva, Babylon
9. Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick
10. Jeremy Pope, The Inspection
Also in contention: Adam Driver, White Noise; Felix Kammerer, All Quiet on the Western Front
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Bassett has been a very welcome nominee, as she is beloved in the industry, but this category has been cited as one that is also very competitive. Condon and JLC have also been widely nominated, but many EEAAO fans are vocal in seeing Hsu nominated over her co-star, to which I say: why not both? Chau has also been called a highlight of her film, but so has de Leon. I am sticking with this order I have below, as it is what the evidence is showing, but I somehow expect JLC to miss out over Hsu, Chau and de Leon. Interestingly, Mulligan, Foy, and Buckley were previously considered favourites in this category, but have fallen in the past month or so. I've already written about the Williams case, so what about two potential surprises: Monáe and Hoss. Both have been praised for their supporting roles, in two very well-received films. Once again, a category that seems wide-open beyond the top two.
1. Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
2. Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin
3. Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All At Once
4. Hong Chau, The Whale
5. Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All At Once
6. Dolly de Leon, Triangle of Sadness
7. Carey Mulligan, She Said
8. Claire Foy, Women Talking
9. Janelle Monáe, Glass Onion
10. Jessie Buckley, Women Talking
Also in contention: Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans; Nina Hoss, TÁR
SUPPORTING ACTOR
Quan has been sweeping the season, and just like Fraser, it's an emotional comeback. The two men from Banshees are very likely... but yet again, it's a true competition beyond that, with four performances battling it out. I think Dano is pretty safe in a Best Picture front-runner. Redmayne may be Twitter-hated, but he's actor-loved, so I think he may repeat his recent successes from the precursors and get the fifth spot. That leaves Whishaw and Pitt. Whishaw is a highlight from a film that has been forgotten about in the guilds, critic circles and other awarding bodies: will he make it in? And as for Pitt, I just don't see the passion for him, but then again...
1. Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All At Once
2. Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin
3. Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin
4. Paul Dano, The Fabelmans
5. Eddie Redmayne, The Good Nurse
6. Ben Whishaw, Women Talking
7. Brad Pitt, Babylon
8. Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans
9. Brian Tyree Henry, Causeway
10. Mark Rylance, Bones & All
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
I think this is a rather sensible predicted order of events, if I may say so myself. I think Park and Östlund's films are the most likely to take the final spot from Aftersun.
1. The Banshees of Inisherin
2. Everything Everywhere All At Once
3. The Fabelmans
4. TÁR
5. Aftersun
6. Triangle of Sadness
7. Decision of Leave
8. The Menu
9. Babylon
10. Elvis
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Strangely, this has been called a "weak" category this year, and is also the only category that Polley's film has stayed a front-runner.
1. Women Talking
2. The Whale
3. Glass Onion
4. Living
5. All Quiet on the Western Front
6. She Said
7. Pinocchio
8. White Noise
9. Bones & All
10. Top Gun: Maverick
Also in contention: Marcel the Shell With Shoes On
CINEMATOGRAPHY
1. Top Gun: Maverick
2. Empire of Light
3. Elvis
4. The Batman
5. Avatar: The Way of Water
6. The Fabelmans
7. All Quiet on the Western Front
8. Babylon
9. TÁR
10. Bardo
Also in contention: Nope; The Banshees of Inisherin; EO
EDITING
1. Everything Everywhere All At Once
2. Top Gun: Maverick
3. Elvis
4. The Fabelmans
5. The Banshees of Inisherin
6. Avatar: The Way of Water
7. Babylon
8. Glass Onion
9. All Quiet on the Western Front
10. Decision to Leave
Also in contention: TÁR; Triangle of Sadness; Women Talking
PRODUCTION DESIGN
1. Elvis
2. Babylon
3. Avatar: The Way of Water
4. The Fabelmans
5. All Quiet on the Western Front
6. Pinocchio
7. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
8. Glass Onion
9. Everything Everywhere All At Once
10. The Batman
Also in contention: White Noise; Empire of Light
COSTUMES
1. Elvis
2. Babylon
3. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
4. Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris
5. Corsage
6. The Fabelmans
7. Women Talking
8. The Woman King
9. Everything Everywhere All At Once
10. The Northman
MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
1. Elvis
2. The Whale
3. The Batman
4. All Quiet on Western Front
5. Babylon
6. Blonde
7. Crimes of the Future
8. Amsterdam
9. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
10. Emancipation
VISUAL EFFECTS
1. Avatar: The Way of Water
2. Top Gun: Maverick
3. The Batman
4. All Quiet on the Western Front
5. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
6. Nope
7. Thirteen Lives
8. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness
9. Jurassic World: Dominion
10. Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore
SOUND
1. Top Gun: Maverick
2. Elvis
3. Avatar: The Way of Water
4. Babylon
5. All Quiet on the Western Front
6. Everything Everywhere All At Once
7. Moonage Daydream
8. The Batman
9. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
10. Pinocchio
ORIGINAL SCORE
1. Babylon
2. Women Talking
3. The Fabelmans
4. The Banshees of Inisherin
5. Pinocchio
6. Everything Everywhere All At Once
7. The Woman King
8. All Quiet on the Western Front
9. Avatar: The Way of Water
10. Glass Onion
Also in contention: She Said; Black Panther: Wakanda Forever; Nope
ORIGINAL SONG
1. "Naatu Naatu", RRR
2. "Hold My Hand", Top Gun: Maverick
3. "Lift Me Up", Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
4. "Ciao Papa", Pinocchio
5. "New Body Rhumba", White Noise
6. "Applause", Tell It Like a Woman
7. "Carolina", Where the Crawdads Sing
8. "Stand Up", Till
9. "This is a Life", Everything Everywhere All At Once
10. "Nothing is Lost (You Give Me Strength)", Avatar: The Way of Water
INTERNATIONAL FEATURE
1. All Quiet on the Western Front (Germany)
2. Decision to Leave (South Korea)
3. Argentina, 1985 (Argentina)
4. EO (Poland)
5. Saint Omer (France)
6. Close (Belgium)
7. Holy Spider (Denmark)
8. Corsage (Austria)
9. Bardo (Mexico)
10. The Quiet Girl (Ireland)
Also in contention: Joyland (Pakistan); Return to Seoul (Cambodia)
ANIMATED FEATURE
1. Pinocchio
2. Turning Red
3. Marcel the Shell With Shoes On
4. Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
5. Wendell and Wild
6. The Bad Guys
7. My Father's Dragon
8. Inu-Oh
9. Strange World
10. Minions: The Rise of Gru
Also in contention: Lightyear; The Sea Beast
DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
1. All That Breathes
2. All the Beauty and the Bloodshed
3. Nalvany
4. Moonage Daydream
5. Fire of Love
TALLIES
9: The Banshees of Inisherin
8: Elvis; Everything Everywhere All At Once
7: All Quiet on the Western Front; The Fabelmans; Top Gun: Maverick
5: Avatar: The Way of Water; Babylon; The Whale
4: Black Panther: Wakanda Forever; TÁR
3: Aftersun; The Batman; Pinocchio
2: Women Talking; Living
