Friday, February 24, 2017

Oscar Predictions 2017

This should be a cakewalk for La La Land this year, as I'm expecting it to sweep the categories. Picture, Director and Actress are almost givens, as is Score, Song and Sound Mixing. In Original Screenplay, it's a toss-up between the film and Lonergan's Manchester by the Sea; will the Academy want to award this indie darling here, seeing that Denzel Washington looks to beat the previously anointed Casey Affleck? In the craft categories, Cinematography is La La Land's best bet, with Hacksaw Ridge giving it competition for Editing. In Production Design, I'm still expecting it to win despite the film's rather modest design --but remember, it's Best design, not Most design, and I'm quite the cheerleader for the film. But if voters want to award something flashier, maybe it'll be Fantastic Beasts, or even Arrival. Speaking of a category in which something flashier usually wins, I'm expecting La La Land to lose in the category of Costume Design, bowing out to Jackie. So that leaves Sound Editing... and let's be honest, it's somewhat miraculous it was even nominated in this category, so I'm expecting Hacksaw Ridge to pick up this award.

So what does that leave us with? Viola Davis has been sweeping the season with Fences, and for good reason: she's excellent in it, and she's overdue for an award after losing Best Actress to Meryl Streep a few years ago. Supporting Actor is a curious category, as many are expecting Mahershala Ali to pick up the award for Moonlight --but at the BAFTAs and the Globes, he lost to Dev Patel and (the not nominated) Aaron Taylor-Johnson. If there's a snub-surprise on Sunday night, I'm expecting it to be here for Patel. Still, I'm predicting Ali to get one of Moonlight's two awards, the other one being Adapted Screenplay. But if there's an award that the beautiful Moonlight I feel doesn't deserve, it's for its screenplay. Arrival would be a better choice, and will the Academy agree with me? Probably not. (For the record, Moonlight is a masterpiece of editing, cinematography and acting, but I think its screenplay is a bit... well, thin.) But I digress.

Makeup and Hairstyling should go to Star Trek Beyond, the second win in the category for the rebooted series. Visual effects will probably go The Jungle Book, but I feel that this is a category ripe for a surprise this year. For the three other feature categories, I'm going for Zootopia, OJ: Made in America and not Toni Erdmann, but The Salesman. Just a hunch that a lot of other predictors are also making, although don't be surprised if A Man Called Ove picks it up. (Erdmann is probably just too weird for the voters in this category.) And that leaves the shorts. Always a crapshoot. So let's go with The White Helmets over Joe's Violin in Doc Short, because, hey, why not. Animated Short is widely expected to go for Piper, and I agree. And finally, Live Action Short has prognosticators all over the place, as it usually does, but the lead is probably for Ennemis Interieurs. So let's go with that.

So that makes me believe that La La Land will win the night with 10 awards. Wow!

Best Picture
Will Win: La La Land
If Hell Freezes Over: Moonlight

Director
Will Win: Damien Chazelle, La La Land
If Hell Freezes Over: Barry Jenkins, Moonlight

Actress
Will Win: Emma Stone, La La Land
Might Win: Isabelle Huppert, Elle

Actor
Will Win: Denzel Washington, Fences
Might Win: Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea

Supporting Actress
Will Win: Viola Davis, Fences
Shocker: Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea

Supporting Actor
Will Win: Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
Might Win: Dev Patel, Lion

Original Screenplay
Will Win: La La Land
Might Win: Manchester by the Sea

Adapted Screenplay
Will Win: Moonlight
Might Win: Arrival

Editing
Will Win: La La Land
Might Win: Hacksaw Ridge

Cinematography
Will Win: La La Land
Might Win: Arrival

Production Design
Will Win: La La Land
Might Win: Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them

Costume Design
Will Win: Jackie
Might Win: La La Land

Makeup and Hairstyling
Will Win: Star Trek Beyond
Might Win: A Man Called Ove

Original Score
Will Win: La La Land
If Hell Freezes Over: Moonlight

Original Song
Will Win: "City of Stars", La La Land
Might Win: "Audition (The Fools Who Dream)", La La Land

Sound Mixing
Will Win: La La Land
Might Win: Hacksaw Ridge
Dark Horse: Arrival

Sound Editing
Will Win: Hacksaw Ridge
Might Win: Arrival
If There Really is a Sweep Goin' On: La La Land

Visual Effects
Will Win: The Jungle Book
Might Win: Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

Animated Feature
Will Win: Zootopia
Might Win: Kubo and the Two Strings

Foreign Language Feature
Will Win: The Salesman
Might Win: A Man Called Ove

Documentary Feature
Will Win: OJ: Made in America
Might Win: 13th

Animated Short
Will Win: Piper
Might Win: Pearl

Live Action Short
Will Win: Ennemis Interieurs
Might Win: Timecode
But Really, Who Knows?: La Femme et le TGV

Documentary Short
Will Win: The White Helmets
Might Win: Joe's Violin

Tuesday, January 24, 2017

Oscar Nominations Reaction 2017

89/107

Definitely one of my better years! The 'snubs' here are Amy Adams for Arrival missing out, maybe Hugh Grant from Florence Foster Jenkins, and in my mind, Rogue One missing out the Sound Editing. But overall, not too many surprises. We'll have to get used to Passengers being more nominated than Silence, though.

Best Picture

1. La La Land
2. Moonlight
3. Manchester by the Sea
4. Arrival
5. Lion
6. Hidden Figures
7. Fences
8. Hacksaw Ridge
9. Hell or High Water

9/9

Director

1. Damien Chazelle, La La Land
2. Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
3. Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea
4. Denis Villeneuve, Arrival
6. Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge

4/5

Actress

1. Emma Stone, La La Land
2. Natalie Portman, Jackie
4. Isabelle Huppert, Elle
5. Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins
7. Ruth Negga, Loving

4/5

Actor

1. Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
2. Denzel Washington, Fences
3. Ryan Gosling, La La Land
4. Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic
5. Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge
(7. Tom Hanks, Sully was listed as the 6th nomination on the website!)

5/5

Supporting Actress

1. Viola Davis, Fences
2. Michelle Williams, Manchester bu the Sea
3. Naomie Harris, Moonlight
4. Nicole Kidman, Lion
5. Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures

5/5

Supporting Actor

1. Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
2. Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water
3. Dev Patel, Lion
5. Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea
9. Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals

4/5

Adapted Screenplay

1. Moonlight
2. Arrival
3. Hidden Figures
4. Fences
5. Lion

5/5

Original Screenplay

1. La La Land
2. Manchester by the Sea
3. Hell or High Water
4. The Lobster
10. 20th Century Women

4/5

Editing
1. La La Land
2. Arrival
3. Moonlight
4. Hacksaw Ridge
6. Hell or High Water

4/5

Cinematography
1. La La Land
2. Arrival
3. Moonlight
4. Silence
5. Lion

5/5

Production Design
1. La La Land
2. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
4. Hail, Caesar!
5. Arrival
8. Passengers

4/5

Costume Design
1. Jackie
2. La La Land
3. Florence Foster Jenkins
4. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
6. Allied

4/5

Makeup and Hairstyling
2. Star Trek Beyond
4. A Man Called Ove
7. Suicide Squad

1/3

Original Score
1. La La Land
2. Lion
3. Moonlight
4. Jackie
-. Passengers

4/5

Original Song
1. "City of Stars", La La Land
2. "Audition (The Fools Who Dream)", La La Land
4. "How Far I'll Go", Moana
-. "Can't Stop The Feeling", Trolls
-. "The Empty Chair", JimL The James Foley Story

3/5

Sound Mixing
1. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
2. La La Land
3. Hacksaw Ridge
5. Arrival
8. 13 Hours

4/5

Sound Editing

2. Hacksaw Ridge
3. Arrival
4. Deepwater Horizon
5. La La Land
9. Sully

4/5

Visual Effects
1. The Jungle Book
2. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
3. Deepwater Horizon
5. Doctor Strange
6. Kubo and the Two Strings

4/5

Animated Feature
1. Zootopia
2. Moana
3. Kubo and the Two Strings
4. The Red Turtle
5. My Life as a Zucchini

5/5

Foreign Language
Despite the critical thrashing, I have a feeling Dolan's film is getting in.
1. Toni Erdmann (Germany)
2. A Man Called Ove (Sweden)
3. The Salesman (Iran)
4. Land of Mine (Denmark)
8. Tanna (Australia)

4/5

Documentary Feature
1. OJ: Made in America
2. 13th
3. I Am Not Your Negro
6. Fire at Sea
7. Life, Animated

3/5

TALLIES
La La Land - 14
Arrival - 8
Moonlight - 8
Manchester by the Sea - 6
Lion - 6
Hacksaw Ridge - 6
Fences - 4
Hell or High Water - 4
Jackie - 3
Hidden Figures - 3
Florence Foster Jenkins - 2
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story - 2
Deepwater Horizon - 2
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them - 2
Moana - 2
Kubo and the Two Strings - 2
Passengers - 2
Nocturnal Animals - 1


Sunday, January 22, 2017

Oscar Nominations Predictions 2017

Best Picture

1. La La Land
2. Moonlight
3. Manchester by the Sea
4. Arrival
5. Lion
6. Hidden Figures
7. Fences
8. Hacksaw Ridge
9. Hell or High Water
10. Nocturnal Animals
11. Loving
12. Silence
13. Jackie
14. Florence Foster Jenkins
15. Sully
16. I, Daniel Blake
17. Deadpool
18. 20th Century Women
19. Captain Fantastic
20. Patriots Day

Director

1. Damien Chazelle, La La Land
2. Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
3. Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea
4. Denis Villeneuve, Arrival
5. Garth Davis, Lion
6. Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge
7. David Mackenzie, Hell or High Water
8. Martin Scorsese, Silence
9. Tom Ford, Nocturnal Animals
10. Denzel Washington, Fences

Actress
A very tight race this year.

1. Emma Stone, La La Land
2. Natalie Portman, Jackie
3. Amy Adams, Arrival
4. Isabelle Huppert, Elle
5. Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins
6. Annette Bening, 20th Century Women
7. Ruth Negga, Loving
8. Taraji P. Henson, Hidden Figures
9. Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane
10. Emily Blunt, The Girl on the Train

Actor
The top 6 seem to be the most likely by a long shot.

1. Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
2. Denzel Washington, Fences
3. Ryan Gosling, La La Land
4. Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic
5. Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge
6. Joel Edgerton, Loving
7. Tom Hanks, Sully
8. Jake Gyllenhaal, Nocturnal Animals
9. Adam Driver, Paterson
10. Andrew Garfield, Silence

Supporting Actress
Janelle or Octavia for the fifth spot? Maybe both?

1. Viola Davis, Fences
2. Michelle Williams, Manchester bu the Sea
3. Naomie Harris, Moonlight
4. Nicole Kidman, Lion
5. Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures
6. Janelle MonaƩ, Hidden Figures
7. Greta Gerwig, 20th Century Women
8. Hayley Squires, I, Daniel Blake
9. Lily Gladstone, Certain Women

Supporting Actor

1. Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
2. Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water
3. Dev Patel, Lion
4. Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins
5. Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea
6. Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Nocturnal Animals
7. Kevin Costner, Hidden Figures
8. Issey Ogata, Silence
9. Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals
10. Ben Foster, Hell or High Water

Adapted Screenplay

1. Moonlight
2. Arrival
3. Hidden Figures
4. Fences
5. Lion
6. Nocturnal Animals
7. Hacksaw Ridge
8. Silence
9. Loving
10. Deadpool

Original Screenplay

1. La La Land
2. Manchester by the Sea
3. Hell or High Water
4. The Lobster
5. Jackie
6. I, Daniel Blake
7. Captain Fantastic
8. Zootopia
9. Toni Erdmann
10. 20th Century Women

Editing
1. La La Land
2. Arrival
3. Moonlight
4. Hacksaw Ridge
5. Manchester by the Sea
6. Hell or High Water
7. Nocturnal Animals
8. Lion
9. Silence
10. Sully

Cinematography
1. La La Land
2. Arrival
3. Moonlight
4. Silence
5. Lion
6. Nocturnal Animals
7. Hell or High Water
8. Jackie
9. Hail, Caesar!
10. Live by Night

Production Design
1. La La Land
2. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
3. Jackie
4. Hail, Caesar!
5. Arrival
6. Silence
7. Nocturnal Animals
8. Passengers
9. Live by Night
10. Hacksaw Ridge

Costume Design
1. Jackie
2. La La Land
3. Florence Foster Jenkins
4. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
5. The Dressmaker
6. Allied
7. Hail, Caesar!
8. Hidden Figures
9. Live by Night
10. Love & Friendship

Makeup and Hairstyling
1. Florence Foster Jenkins
2. Star Trek Beyond
3. Deadpool
4. A Man Called Ove
5. The Dressmaker
6. Hail, Caesar!
7. The Dressmaker

Original Score
1. La La Land
2. Lion
3. Moonlight
4. Jackie
5. Nocturnal Animals
6. Hidden Figures
7. Hacksaw Ridge
8. The BFG
9. Florence Foster Jenkins
10. Hell or High Water

Original Song
1. "City of Stars", La La Land
2. "Audition (The Fools Who Dream)", La La Land
3. "Runnin'", Hidden Figures
4. "How Far I'll Go", Moana
5. "Faith", Sing
6. And as per usual, beyond the supposed frontrunners, I have no idea.

Sound Mixing
1. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
2. La La Land
3. Hacksaw Ridge
4. Deepwater Horizon
5. Arrival
6. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
7. Patriots Day
8. 13 Hours
9. The Jungle Book
10. Sully

Sound Editing
Apparently, a musical has never been nominated here. What the heck, let's take a chance and guess La La Land for the fifth position!

1. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
2. Hacksaw Ridge
3. Arrival
4. Deepwater Horizon
5. La La Land
6. Patriots Day
7. 13 Hours
8. The Jungle Book
9. Sully
10. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them

Visual Effects
1. The Jungle Book
2. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
3. Deepwater Horizon
4. Arrival
5. Doctor Strange
6. Kubo and the Two Strings
7. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
8. Passengers
9. Captain America: Civil War
10. The BFG

Animated Feature
1. Zootopia
2. Moana
3. Kubo and the Two Strings
4. The Red Turtle
5. My Life as a Zucchini
6. Sing
7. Finding Dory
8. Miss Hokusai
9. The Little Prince
10. Sausage Party

Foreign Language
Despite the critical thrashing, I have a feeling Dolan's film is getting in.
1. Toni Erdmann (Germany)
2. A Man Called Ove (Sweden)
3. The Salesman (Iran)
4. Land of Mine (Denmark)
5. It's Only the End of the World (Canada)
6. My Life as a Zucchini (Switzerland)
7. Paradise (Russia)
8. Tanna (Australia)
9. The King's Choice (Norway)

Documentary Feature
1. OJ: Made in America
2. 13th
3. I Am Not Your Negro
4. Weiner
5. The Eagle Huntress
6. Fire at Sea
7. Life, Animated
8. Gleason
9. The Ivory Game
10. Tower

TALLIES
La La Land - 14
Arrival - 10
Moonlight - 8
Manchester by the Sea - 7
Lion - 7
Hacksaw Ridge - 5
Jackie - 5
Hidden Figures - 4
Fences - 4
Florence Foster Jenkins - 4
Hell or High Water - 3
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story - 3
Deepwater Horizon - 3
Nocturnal Animals - 2
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them - 2
Moana - 2