Best Picture
Looking at my predictions, I'm struck by the possibility that Trial may get Best Picture -- and nothing else. It may be close for Screenplay and Editing, but I think that Nomadland will come out on top. But we'll see what happens earlier in the evening: if Zhao loses in her screenplay catgeory, and Sorkin wins in his, and then if Trial picks up Editing, Trial will be the winner. A strange winner for a strange year.
Will Win: Nomadland
Could Win: The Trial of the Chicago 7
Director
It is very unlikely that anyone will top Zhao this year, as she has been sweeping virtually every award there is thus far.
Will Win: Chloé Zhao, Nomadland
Very Slight Possibility: Emerald Fennell, Promising Young Woman
Actress
It's been a long time since I've seen an acting category so wide open. Davis, Mulligan and McDormand are battling it out, but don't rule out Day, either. Kirby is in it for the ride. Of the top three, I suspect that Davis will be the surprise loser, with Mulligan coming out on top. The problem with Davis' performance is that she isn't in the film very much, despite being the titular character. It's a great performance, yes, but for a leading role she doesn't carry the film as much as Boseman does, who is widely expected to win his category. Mulligan also feels a little bit "overdue", which contrasts the two-time winning McDormand, who just may win again. I dunno -- this is probably the hardest category of the year. So let's rank them:
1. Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman
2. Viola Davis, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
3. Frances McDormand, Nomadland
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4. Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday
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5. Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman
Actor
What a packed category! I can see arguments for any of Boseman, Hopkins and Ahmed -- indeed, they have split the precursors -- but Boseman has both a charismatic performance and a strong winning narrative: a beloved actor, never before nominated, but tragically dying at far too young an age. Hopkins has an Oscar already, but the performance is supposedly amazing (I haven't seen it); Ahmed may have won in another year, I think.
Will Win: Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Could Win: Anthony Hopkins, The Father
Heck If I Know: Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal
Supporting Actress
Earlier in the season, this category seemed wide open, but recently it has solidified around Yuh-Jung Youn.
Will Win: Yuh-Jung Youn, Minari
Surprise!: Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Supporting Actor
Judas and its blatant category fraud will still come out on top with Daniel Kaluuya's magnificent, magnetic performance winning. If there's any chance for a surprise, it probably comes from Sacha Baron Cohen, or even Paul Raci; but this one, like the Supporting Actress category, seems locked up.
Will Win: Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah
Surprise!: Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Original Screenplay
Now here's a category that has changed in the last legs of the race: it seems that Sorkin's Trial is no longer the favourite here, with Fennell's Promising Young Woman being the most predicted over at GoldDerby. I'm hesitant for some reason to call if for Fennell, as Sorkin's film seems like the kind of middle-brow, liberal, snappy Hollywood political history that voters seem to really go for. But who am I to resist the crowd?
Will Win: Promising Young Woman
Could Win: The Trial of the Chicago 7
Adapted Screenplay
It seems that the two battling out are Nomadland and The Father, which have been splitting the prognosticator's votes. I think Nomadland will need this to win Best Picture, as we know that in recent years the two categories of Screenplay and Picture have been more linked than Directing and Picture. If Nomadland loses this earlier in the evening, I may brace for a surprising lose in Picture. I've also seen some anonymous voters going for Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, but I somehow don't think it has much of a chance here. I could be wrong.
Will Win: Nomadland
Could Win: The Father
Editing
Oh man -- another battle. Sound of Metal seems to be the consensus here, but what about Best Picture hopefuls Nomadland and Trial? Editing is a category no longer directly linked to Best Picture winners, and it seems that Sound has the "flashiest" editing, which usually tickles the voters just right. I think that if Nomadland sweeps, it'll win here, but that Trial is the more likely. So in the end:
Will Win: Sound of Metal
Could Win: The Trial of the Chicago 7
Sweep: Nomadland
Cinematography
This comes down to two: ASC winner Mank and Best Picture hopeful Nomadland. Do they go with classy black-and-white or the Golden Hour? I think it'll be Mank.
Will Win: Mank
Could Win: Nomadland
Production Design
It looks like a near-complete consensus: Mank will take this one.
Will Win: Mank
Could Win: Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Costume Design
This one will go to Ma Rainey, although I don't know if it deserves it. Ma Rainey's costumes are pretty awesome, but I just think that given the relative fewer costumes there are, versus something like Mank or Emma, may hurt its chances. I'm probably wrong in doubting it.
Will Win: Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Could Win: Emma.
Makeup and Hairstyling
Probably an easy win for Ma Rainey. Pinnochio is pretty breathtaking based on production stills, but like me, I don't think enough voters will have seen it. Hillbilly Elegy looks to be nipping at Ma's tail, but can we not go there, please?
Will Win: Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Could Win: Hillbilly Elegy
Maybe This Should Win: Pinocchio
Original Score
Easy-peasy. Soul has got this one, giving Reznor and Ross their second Oscar. This is a near-universal consensus.
Will Win: Soul
Maybe: Mank
Original Song
I'm not sure, but it looks like "Speak Now" is the predicted winner here, although there are many people diverting from this consensus. I smell a surprise, though, but not sure which one to throw my support behind.
Will Win: "Speak Now", One Night in Miami
Could Win: "Io Si (Seen)", The Life Ahead
Sound
Easy win for Sound of Metal. It has "sound" in its title! I don't even want to name a "Could Win" here, because I think it's so obvious a winner.
Will Win: Sound of Metal
Visual Effects
Poor Tenet. It didn't do too well at the Oscars this year, but it will be a winner nonetheless.
Will Win: Tenet
Animated Feature
Soul is the obvious winner here, but is there Pixar fatigue settling in? Maybe they'll go for a surprise and give the Oscar to Wolfwalkers.
Will Win: Soul
Could Win: Wolfwalkers
International Feature
Vinteberg's Another Round may be about middle-aged dudes drinking, but it's still the expected winner over Quo Vadis, Aida?.
Will Win: Another Round (Denmark)
Could Win: Quo Vadis, Aida? (Bosnia and Herzegovina)
Surprise!: Collective (Romania)
Documentary Feature
Looks like the personified octopus movie is getting the Oscar. Feels like a lightweight winner to me -- maybe it'll be Time or Collective instead, but there's really not much to go on here.
Will Win: My Octopus Teacher
Could Win: Time
The Shorts
I haven't seen any of them, and it's always basically a crapshoot if you haven't, so I'm just going with what looks to be consensus here.
Animated Short
Will Win: If Anything Happens I Love You
Could Win: Opera
Live Action Short
Will Win: Two Distant Strangers
Could Win: The Letter Room
Documentary Short
Will Win: A Love Song for Latasha
Could Win: A Concerto is a Conversation
TALLY
Nomadland: 3 (Picture, Directing, Adapted Screenplay)
Ma Rainey's Black Bottom: 3 (Actor, Costume, Makeup & Hairstyling)
Mank: 2 (Production Design, Cinematography)
Promising Young Woman: 2 (Actress, Original Screenplay)
Sound of Metal: 2 (Editing, Sound)
Soul: 2 (Animated Feature, Score)
