2016 Academy Award Predictions

What a year! After so many being utterly predictable in the major categories, we have a year that no one's quite sure who will take the top prize. And what a thrill that is for us Oscar watchers. I don't have much commentary this year, but it's interesting that the technical prizes are a battleground between The Revenant and Mad Max: Fury Road.
So I'm calling 6 for The Revenant, 3 for Mad Max: Fury Road and 2 for The Big Short.

BEST PICTURE

Amongst the primary precursors, we have a split. The Director's Guild gave it to Innaritu, the Producer's Guild to The Big Short, and the Screen Actor's Guild to Spotlight. The GGs gave it to Revenant, as did the BAFTAs. So I'm going with --and yes, that makes him the only director to direct two Best Pictures in a row--...

Will Win: The Revenant
Could Win: The Big Short
Wouldn't Be Surprised: Spotlight

DIRECTING

Will Win: Alejandro G. Innaritu, The Revenant
Could Win: George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road

ACTRESS

Will Win: Brie Larson, Room
Could Win: Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn

ACTOR

Will Win: Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
Dark Horse: Bryan Cranston, Trumbo

SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Will Win: Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
Could Win: Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs

SUPPORTING ACTOR

Will Win: Sylvester Stallone, Creed
Could Win: Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Will Win: Spotlight
Dark Horse: Inside Out

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Will Win: The Big Short
Dark Horse: Room?

EDITING

Will Win: The Big Short
Could Win: Mad Max: Fury Road

CINEMATOGRAPHY

Will Win: The Revenant
Could Win: Mad Max: Fury Road

PRODUCTION DESIGN

Will Win: Mad Max: Fury Road
Could Win: The Revenant

COSTUME DESIGN

Will Win: Mad Max: Fury Road
Could Win: Cinderella

MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

Will Win: Mad Max: Fury Road
Could Win: The Revenant

SOUND MIXING

Will Win: The Revenant
Could Win: Mad Max: Fury Road

SOUND EDITING

Will Win: The Revenant
Could Win: Mad Max: Fury Road

ORIGINAL SCORE

Will Win: The Hateful Eight
Could Win: Carol

ORIGINAL SONG

Will Win: "Til It Happens to You", The Hunting Ground
Could Win: "Writing's on the Wall", Spectre

VISUAL EFFECTS

Will Win: Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Could Win: Mad Max: Fury Road

ANIMATED FEATURE

Will Win: Inside Out
Could Win: Anomalisa

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Will Win: Amy
Could Win: What Happened, Miss Simone?

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FEATURE

Will Win: Son of Saul
Could Win: Mustang

ANIMATED SHORT

Will Win: Sanjay's Super Team
Could Win: Bear Story

LIVE ACTION SHORT

Will Win: Shok
Could Win: Stutterer

DOCUMENTARY SHORT

Will Win: A Girl in the River: The Price of Forgiveness
Could Win: Claude Lanzmann: Spectres of the Shoah
But Really, Who Knows?: Body Team 12

Oscar Nominations 2016 Reaction

Not too many surprises this year. I would say the 'snubs' and surprises are Abrahamson making it in at the expense of Ridley Scott in Directing; the lack of Tarantino and Sorkin in the screenplays; Tom Hardy showing up in Supporting Actor; Carol missing in Production Design, and the missing of "See You Again" from Furious 7. I did pretty well this year, even though I haven't been following the season as closely. I ended with an 81/101.

Best Picture
1. The Revenant
2. Spotlight
3. The Big Short
4. The Martian
5. Mad Max: Fury Road
6. Brooklyn
7. Bridge of Spies
12. Room

7/8


Best Director
1. Alejandro G. Iñárritu, The Revenant
2. Tom McCarthy, Spotlight
4. George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road
5. Adam McKay, The Big Short
*. Lenny Abrahamson, Room

4/5


Best Actress
1. Brie Larson, Room
2. Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn
3. Cate Blanchett, Carol
5. Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years
6. Jennifer Lawrence, Joy

4/5


Best Actor
1. Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
2. Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
3. Bryan Cranston, Trumbo
4. Matt Damon, The Martian
5. Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl

5/5


Best Supporting Actress
1. Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs
3. Rooney Mara, Carol
4. Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight
6. Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
7. Rachel McAdams, Spotlight

3/5


Best Supporting Actor
1. Sylvester Stallone, Creed
2. Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies
3. Christian Bale, The Big Short
7. Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight
*. Tom Hardy, The Revenant

3/5


Best Original Screenplay
1. Spotlight
2. Inside Out
4. Bridge of Spies
5. Ex Machina
7. Straight Outta Compton

4/5


Best Adapted Screenplay
1. The Big Short
3. The Martian
4. Carol
5. Room
6. Brooklyn

4/5


Best Film Editing
1. The Big Short
2. Mad Max: Fury Road
3. The Revenant
5. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
8. Spotlight

4/5


Best Cinematography
1. The Revenant
2. Mad Max: Fury Road
3. Sicario
4. Carol
5. The Hateful Eight

5/5


Best Costume Design
1. Carol
2. Cinderella
4. Mad Max: Fury Road
5. The Danish Girl
9. The Revenant

4/5


Best Production Design
1. Mad Max: Fury Road
3. The Martian
4. Bridge of Spies
6. The Revenant
8. The Danish Girl

3/5


Best Makeup and Hairstyling
1. Mad Max: Fury Road
2. The Revenant
6. The 100 Year Old Man Who Climbed Out the Window and Disappeared

2/3


Best Original Score
1. The Hateful Eight
2. Sicario
3. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
4. Carol
6. Bridge of Spies

4/5


Best Original Song
1. "Til It Happens to You", The Hunting Grounds
3. "Writing's On the Wall", Spectre
4. "Simple Song #3", Youth
*. "Earned It", Fifty Shades of Grey
*. "Manta Ray", Racing Extinction

3/5

Best Sound Mixing
1. Mad Max: Fury Road
2. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
3. The Revenant
4. Bridge of Spies
5. The Martian

5/5


Best Sound Editing
1. Mad Max: Fury Road
2. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
3. The Revenant
4. The Martian
7. Sicario

4/5

Best Visual Effects
1. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
2. Mad Max: Fury Road
3. The Revenant
4. The Martian
7. Ex Machina

4/5


Best Foreign Language Film
1. Son of Saul
2. Mustang
5. Theeb
8. A War
9. Embrace of the Serpent

3/5


Best Animated Feature
1. Inside Out
2. Anomalisa
4. Shaun the Sheep Movie
8. Boy and the World
9. When Marnie Was There

3/5


Best Documentary Feature
1. Amy
2. The Look of Silence
*. Cartel Land
*. What Happened, Miss Simone?
*. Winter on Fire: Ukraine's Fight for Freedom

3/5


81/101

Oscar Nominations Predictions 2016

Best Picture
1. The Revenant
2. Spotlight
3. The Big Short
4. The Martian
5. Mad Max: Fury Road
6. Brooklyn
7. Bridge of Spies
8. Carol
9. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
10. Inside Out
11. Straight Outta Compton
12. Room
13. Sicario
14. Trumbo
15. The Hateful Eight

Best Director
1. Alejandro G. Iñárritu, The Revenant
2. Tom McCarthy, Spotlight
3. Ridley Scott, The Martian
4. George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road
5. Adam McKay, The Big Short
6. Todd Haynes, Carol
7. Steven Spielberg, Bridge of Spies
8. Denis Villeneuve, Sicario
9. Quentin Tarantino, The Hateful Eight
10. John Crowley, Brooklyn

Best Actress
1. Brie Larson, Room
2. Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn
3. Cate Blanchett, Carol
4. Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
5. Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years
6. Jennifer Lawrence, Joy
7. Rooney Mara, Carol
8. Carey Mulligan, Suffragette
9. Maggie Smith, The Lady in the Van
10. Lily Tomlin, Grandma

Best Actor
1. Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
2. Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
3. Bryan Cranston, Trumbo
4. Matt Damon, The Martian
5. Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl
6. Johnny Depp, Black Mass
7. Michael B. Jordan, Creed
8. Will Smith, Concussion
9. Steve Carell, The Big Short
10. Tom Hanks, Bridge of Spies

Best Supporting Actress
1. Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs
2. Alicia Vikander, Ex Machina
3. Rooney Mara, Carol
4. Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight
5. Helen Mirren, Trumbo
6. Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
7. Rachel McAdams, Spotlight
8. Jane Fonda, Youth
9. Kristen Stewart, Clouds of Sils Maria
10. Julie Walters, Brooklyn

Best Supporting Actor
1. Sylvester Stallone, Creed
2. Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies
3. Christian Bale, The Big Short
4. Idris Elba, Beasts of No Nation
5. Michael Shannon, 99 Homes
6. Benicio Del Toro, Sicario
7. Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight
8. Jacob Tremblay, Room
9. Paul Dano, Love & Mercy
10. Michael Keaton, Spotlight

Best Original Screenplay
1. Spotlight
2. Inside Out
3. The Hateful Eight
4. Bridge of Spies
5. Ex Machina
6. Sicario
7. Straight Outta Compton
8. Trainwreck
9. Joy
10. 99 Homes

Best Adapted Screenplay
1. The Big Short
2. Steve Jobs
3. The Martian
4. Carol
5. Room
6. Brooklyn
7. The Revenant
8. Trumbo
9. Anomalisa
10. Mad Max: Fury Road

Best Film Editing
1. The Big Short
2. Mad Max: Fury Road
3. The Revenant
4. The Martian
5. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
6. Sicario
7. Bridge of Spies
8. Spotlight
9. Steve Jobs
10. Room

Best Cinematography
1. The Revenant
2. Mad Max: Fury Road
3. Sicario
4. Carol
5. The Hateful Eight
6. Bridge of Spies
7. The Martian
8. Room
9. Son of Saul
10. The Assassin

Best Costume Design
1. Carol
2. Cinderella
3. Brooklyn
4. Mad Max: Fury Road
5. The Danish Girl
6. Trumbo
7. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
8. Crimson Peak
9. The Revenant
10. The Hateful Eight

Best Production Design
1. Mad Max: Fury Road
2. Carol
3. The Martian
4. Bridge of Spies
5. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
6. The Revenant
7. Brooklyn
8. The Danish Girl
9. Crimson Peak
10. Cinderella

Best Makeup and Hairstyling
1. Mad Max: Fury Road
2. The Revenant
3. Black Mass
4. Mr. Holmes
5. Legend
6. The 100 Year Old Man Who Climbed Out the Window and Disappeared
7. Concussion

Best Original Score
1. The Hateful Eight
2. Sicario
3. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
4. Carol
5. The Danish Girl
6. Bridge of Spies
7. Spotlight
8. Steve Jobs
9. Mad Max: Fury Road
10. Inside Out

Best Original Song
1. "Til It Happens to You", The Hunting Grounds
2. "See You Again", Furious 7
3. "Writing's On the Wall", Spectre
4. "Simple Song #3", Youth
5. "I'll See You In My Dreams", I'll See You In My Dreams
I have no idea how to rank the rest.

Best Sound Mixing
1. Mad Max: Fury Road
2. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
3. The Revenant
4. Bridge of Spies
5. The Martian
6. The Hateful Eight
7. Sicario
8. Spectre
9. Jurassic World
10. Straight Outta Compton

Best Sound Editing
1. Mad Max: Fury Road
2. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
3. The Revenant
4. The Martian
5. The Hateful Eight
6. Bridge of Spies
7. Sicario
8. Jurassic World
9. Spectre
10. Inside Out

Best Visual Effects
1. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
2. Mad Max: Fury Road
3. The Revenant
4. The Martian
5. The Walk
6. Jurassic World
7. Ex Machina
8. Ant-Man
9. Avengers: Age of Ultron
10. Tomorrowland

Best Foreign Language Film
1. Son of Saul
2. Mustang
3. Labyrinth of Lies
4. Viva
5. Theeb
6. The Brand New Testament
7. The Fencer
8. A War
9. Embrace of the Serpent

Best Animated Feature
1. Inside Out
2. Anomalisa
3. The Peanuts Movie
4. Shaun the Sheep Movie
5. The Good Dinosaur
6. The Prophet
7. Minions
8. Boy and the World
9. When Marnie Was There
10. Home

Best Documentary Feature
1. Amy
2. The Look of Silence
Other possibilities:
He Named Me Malala
Where to Invade Next
Meru
Heart of a Dog
Going Clear: Scientology and the Prison of Belief