This should be a cakewalk for La La Land this year, as I'm expecting it to sweep the categories. Picture, Director and Actress are almost givens, as is Score, Song and Sound Mixing. In Original Screenplay, it's a toss-up between the film and Lonergan's Manchester by the Sea; will the Academy want to award this indie darling here, seeing that Denzel Washington looks to beat the previously anointed Casey Affleck? In the craft categories, Cinematography is La La Land's best bet, with Hacksaw Ridge giving it competition for Editing. In Production Design, I'm still expecting it to win despite the film's rather modest design --but remember, it's Best design, not Most design, and I'm quite the cheerleader for the film. But if voters want to award something flashier, maybe it'll be Fantastic Beasts, or even Arrival. Speaking of a category in which something flashier usually wins, I'm expecting La La Land to lose in the category of Costume Design, bowing out to Jackie. So that leaves Sound Editing... and let's be honest, it's somewhat miraculous it was even nominated in this category, so I'm expecting Hacksaw Ridge to pick up this award.
So what does that leave us with? Viola Davis has been sweeping the season with Fences, and for good reason: she's excellent in it, and she's overdue for an award after losing Best Actress to Meryl Streep a few years ago. Supporting Actor is a curious category, as many are expecting Mahershala Ali to pick up the award for Moonlight --but at the BAFTAs and the Globes, he lost to Dev Patel and (the not nominated) Aaron Taylor-Johnson. If there's a snub-surprise on Sunday night, I'm expecting it to be here for Patel. Still, I'm predicting Ali to get one of Moonlight's two awards, the other one being Adapted Screenplay. But if there's an award that the beautiful Moonlight I feel doesn't deserve, it's for its screenplay. Arrival would be a better choice, and will the Academy agree with me? Probably not. (For the record, Moonlight is a masterpiece of editing, cinematography and acting, but I think its screenplay is a bit... well, thin.) But I digress.
Makeup and Hairstyling should go to Star Trek Beyond, the second win in the category for the rebooted series. Visual effects will probably go The Jungle Book, but I feel that this is a category ripe for a surprise this year. For the three other feature categories, I'm going for Zootopia, OJ: Made in America and not Toni Erdmann, but The Salesman. Just a hunch that a lot of other predictors are also making, although don't be surprised if A Man Called Ove picks it up. (Erdmann is probably just too weird for the voters in this category.) And that leaves the shorts. Always a crapshoot. So let's go with The White Helmets over Joe's Violin in Doc Short, because, hey, why not. Animated Short is widely expected to go for Piper, and I agree. And finally, Live Action Short has prognosticators all over the place, as it usually does, but the lead is probably for Ennemis Interieurs. So let's go with that.
So that makes me believe that La La Land will win the night with 10 awards. Wow!
Best Picture
Will Win: La La Land
If Hell Freezes Over: Moonlight
Director
Will Win: Damien Chazelle, La La Land
If Hell Freezes Over: Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
Actress
Will Win: Emma Stone, La La Land
Might Win: Isabelle Huppert, Elle
Actor
Will Win: Denzel Washington, Fences
Might Win: Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
Supporting Actress
Will Win: Viola Davis, Fences
Shocker: Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea
Supporting Actor
Will Win: Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
Might Win: Dev Patel, Lion
Original Screenplay
Will Win: La La Land
Might Win: Manchester by the Sea
Adapted Screenplay
Will Win: Moonlight
Might Win: Arrival
Editing
Will Win: La La Land
Might Win: Hacksaw Ridge
Cinematography
Will Win: La La Land
Might Win: Arrival
Production Design
Will Win: La La Land
Might Win: Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Costume Design
Will Win: Jackie
Might Win: La La Land
Makeup and Hairstyling
Will Win: Star Trek Beyond
Might Win: A Man Called Ove
Original Score
Will Win: La La Land
If Hell Freezes Over: Moonlight
Original Song
Will Win: "City of Stars", La La Land
Might Win: "Audition (The Fools Who Dream)", La La Land
Sound Mixing
Will Win: La La Land
Might Win: Hacksaw Ridge
Dark Horse: Arrival
Sound Editing
Will Win: Hacksaw Ridge
Might Win: Arrival
If There Really is a Sweep Goin' On: La La Land
Visual Effects
Will Win: The Jungle Book
Might Win: Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
Animated Feature
Will Win: Zootopia
Might Win: Kubo and the Two Strings
Foreign Language Feature
Will Win: The Salesman
Might Win: A Man Called Ove
Documentary Feature
Will Win: OJ: Made in America
Might Win: 13th
Animated Short
Will Win: Piper
Might Win: Pearl
Live Action Short
Will Win: Ennemis Interieurs
Might Win: Timecode
But Really, Who Knows?: La Femme et le TGV
Documentary Short
Will Win: The White Helmets
Might Win: Joe's Violin
