Oscar Predictions 2025

I'm really not sticking my neck out this year with trying to predict upsets, like I usually try to do. No--this year, I'm trying to stick to consensus and gauge the atmosphere of the film industry. The only category that I am thinking an 'upset' will occur is Animated Feature, where Flow will take the prize over The Wild Robot. I think Anora will do very well, but not as well as it could, with three big awards: Picture, Director, and Original Screenplay, with a chance it may take Actress and Editing. The Brutalist is hot on its tail, though, with predictions in Actor, Cinematography, and Score. But Conclave may indeed be the one to win it all, with predicted Screenplay and Editing wins--a deadly combination. This is truly a spread-the-wealth year, with no one getting more than 3 predicted wins (including Emilia Pérez). The Substance, Dune, and Wicked look to get two each.

Best Picture
What a race this year! It began in Cannes, with Anora picking up the Palme d'Or, but with Emilia Pérez also picking up an award (Best Actress for its group of leading ladies). Then The Brutalist and Conclave flexed their muscles. Then A Complete Unknown shimmered for a brief moment, right on the eve of nominations. It looked like Conclave would be the consensus choice, but then Anora won the PGA and DGA and it looked like it was over... until Conclave once again won a major award with BAFTA. So it's been a wild ride, to say the least. I will go with current consensus Anora, but I would not be in the least bit surprised if we had a Conclave win.

Predicted Winner: Anora

Spoiler: Conclave
Dark Horse: The Brutalist

Director
This is a toss-up between Baker and Corbet. Baker won the DGA, and his film is the widely-predicted winner for Picture, but Corbet has been the one winning the vast majority of this category elsewhere, including BAFTA and the Globes. Corbet's film is hugely respected, given his achievement with a less than $10 million budget. I really don't know how this one will pan out in the end.

Predicted Winner: Sean Baker, Anora
Toss-up: Brady Corbet, The Brutalist

Actress
What a category! A three-way race this year, with Moore and Madison really battling it out, and Torres right behind them, waiting for an opportunity to pounce.... or so I like to imagine. Moore has the narrative: a comeback story, widely respected by the industry, a film that talks directly about her issues with 'aging out' in Hollywood, and a commanding performance; but Madison has the ingenue factor in a film that is the likely Best Picture winner, and a simply fantastic performance to boot. I think it really does come down to these two, with Moore coming out ahead in the end. I will be very much looking forward to the name that is announced.

Predicted Winner: Demi Moore, The Substance
Right Behind: Mikey Madison, Anora
Spoiler: Fernanda Torres, I'm Still Here

Actor
Brody is the anticipated winner, but I have a suspicison that it will be SAG-winner Chalamet. The wise money is still on Brody, despite the AI controversy that has emerged.

Predicted Winner: Adrien Brody, The Brutalist
Suspicion!: Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown

Supporting Actress
Saldaña has swept the season, but I think Grande gave the better performance. Yet there has been some whispers that Rossellini might snatch it away from the frontrunner.

Predicted Winner: Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez
Spoiler: Ariana Grande, Wicked
Suspicion!: Isabella Rossellini, Conclave

Supporting Actor
And Culkin should walk away with this easily, despite the fact that he really didn't give much of a performance, instead just being himself (or so the whispers are saying!)

Predicted Winner: Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain
Spoiler: Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown

Adapted Screenplay
Easy peasy, lemon squeezy. Possibly the most solid "lock" of the night.

Predicted Winner: Conclave
If Hell Freezes Over: Nickel Boys

Original Screenplay
A toss-up between Anora and A Real Pain. Best Picture hopeful Anora is more likely in my opinion, but what about Cannes winner (for screenplay) The Substance?

Predicted Winner: Anora
Right Behind: A Real Pain
Spoiler: The Substance

Cinematography
Ed Lachman has never won, but Crawley made an epic-looking film for a shoestring budget. Go with The Brutalist.

Predicted Winner: The Brutalist
Spoiler: Maria

Editing
Directors don't usually win this award (except Cuarón and Cameron in recent memory), and Conclave certainly made its dialogue-heavy script fly by with rather astute editing. But how could you deny the craft behind the home-invasion/kidnapping scene in Anora?

Predicted Winner: Conclave
Right Behind: Anora

Costume Design
I finally saw Wicked this past week, and I was enamoured with the costumes. I think the Academy will agree, and most are predicting this, too.

Predicted Winner: Wicked
Spoiler: Nosferatu

Production Design
Likewise in this category, Wicked managed to create a beautiful Oz, but the production elements were also key to The Brutalist's success. I don't think it's a toss-up, but I would not be shocked if Corbet's film took this one.

Predicted Winner: Wicked
Spoiler: The Brutalist

Makeup & Hairstyling
Great category this year! But the industry seems to be backing The Substance here: every anonymous Oscar ballot I've seen has said that this is the one to beat.

Predicted Winner: The Substance
Spoiler: Wicked

Sound
Dune probably has this in the bag, as its bone-shaking rumbling has really impressed the industry. But the task of recording live vocals (an idea I'm usually very suspicious of), and doing it very well, belongs to Wicked. I wouldn't be surprised if the musical takes it. Then again, A Complete Unknown also recorded live, and is a film which I thought earlier in the season might have emerged as a frontrunner for Picture. It also won the CAS. Okay, I'm overthinking things...

Predicted Winner: Dune: Part Two
Spoiler: Wicked
Dark Horse: A Complete Unknown

Original Score
The craft behind The Brutalist's score is undeniable, but if Conclave does particularly well, its also-great score could pick this one up, too.

Predicted Winner: The Brutalist
Spoiler: Conclave

Original Song
"El Mal" is the wise choice, but will Diane Warren finally get her "due" after so many nominations with no win? (Please, no.)

Predicted Winner: "El Mal", Emilia Pérez
Spoiler:  "The Journey", The Six Triple Eight

Visual Effects
A pretty strong year for contenders, but it's gotta be Dune.

Predicted Winner: Dune: Part Two
Spoiler: Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes

International Feature
Yes, Emilia Pérez has a field-leading 13 nominations, so it's probably the smart bet... but I'm Still Here managed to sneak into the Best Picture ten, and is a suspect in an Actress upset. I would not be surprised if the Brazilian film won here.

Smart Money: Emilia Pérez (France)
Spoiler: I'm Still Here (Brazil)

Animated Feature
Chris Sanders is beloved by the industry, and has never won: but everyone I see is raving about Flow. (And for good reason: it's fantastic.) I think it will be the upset, given its likely international support and the fact that it has been surging lately. But The Wild Robot was the bigger hit, and has two other nominations. Smart money is on the maternal robot movie.

Predicted Winner: Flow
Wise Money: The Wild Robot

Documentary Feature
Very difficult category to predict. No Other Land is looking like the likely winner, but Porcelain War is equally topical and rather creative.

Predicted Winner: No Other Land
Spoiler: Porcelain War

Live Action Short
Hugely difficult category, because there are no real precursors and so few people are able to see these.

Predicted Winner: A Lien
Toss-up: The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent

Animated Short
Emotionally moving, or just delightful? That's always a toss-up here, but I think the easy-viewing Yuck! will get it. Maybe.

Predicted Winner: Yuck!
Toss-up: In the Shadow of the Cypress

Documentary Short
Easily accessible by viewers thanks to Netflix, The Only Girl in the Orchestra is a nice little piece about a female pioneer on the eve of retirement. But is it topical, like these winners usually are? Nope. I Am Ready, Warden and Incident are.

Predicted Winner: The Only Girl in the Orchestra
Toss-up: I am Ready, Warden
What do I know?: Incident

Oscar Nominations Predictions 2025

What a weird year, with no real frontrunner currently racing ahead--very much unlike the last few seasons. The contenders for most nominations are The Brutalist, Conclave, and the divisive Emilia Pérez. Getting fewer nominations will be Anora, which has been swinging all season at the top of the list for me: but it's also quite the, ahem, "dirty picture". I don't think it will take the final prize after all.

A Complete Unknown is fittingly a big question here: it's seen a late-season surge, including a nomination at the DGA for Mangold, something no one really expected. On my mind is also The Last Showgirl, which may score two acting nominations, like it did at SAG. Two foreign pictures--other than Emilia Pérez--may make a splash on Thursday morning: All We Imagine as Light and The Seed of the Sacred Fig. Let's see how they do: they may get nothing, or just one.

You will notice that many of the categories have a quirk this year: top four "safe" slots, with a fifth that is a battle. This will certainly yield some surprises for us.

 

Best Picture
This top eight is very solid, but what about the last two spots? It's an all-out slugfest. Sing Sing was the frontrunner for the first part of the season, but it has really fallen out of the conversation. A Real Pain seems likely given Kieran Culkin's sweep of his category, and the film's likely screenplay nod. That leaves out Nickel Boys, which despite the acclaim, has not done all that well with the precursors and the guilds. September 5, on the other hand, got an important slot in the PGA top ten: but if it does make it in, it could be its only nomination, something we haven't seen since the 1940s.

1. Anora
2. The Brutalist
3. Conclave
4. Emilia Pérez
5. Wicked
6. A Complete Unknown
7. Dune: Part Two
8. The Substance
9. Sing Sing
10. A Real Pain
11. Nickel Boys
12. September 5
13. All We Imagine as Light
14. The Seed of the Sacred Fig
15. Challengers

Director
If there is a narrative forming for Best Picture, look here. If Mangold makes it in, A Complete Unknown may win it all. Villeneuve should make it in by all means, but he was snubbed for the first installation, too. If any of the top four miss, it's big trouble for these wannabe Best Picture winners. Fargeat seems to me to be the "surprise" (many are predicting her), but I would not rule out Kapadia or Rasoulof making an even bigger surprise here. I also could not leave out Chu, given the smash success of Wicked.

1. Brady Corbet, The Brutalist
2. Sean Baker, Anora
3. Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez
4. Edward Berger, Conclave
5. Coralie Fargeat, The Substance
6. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two
7. James Mangold, A Complete Unknown
8. RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys
9. Payal Kapadia, All We Imagine as Light
10. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig
11. John M. Chu, Wicked

Actress
The first four are safe, but it's that fifth position that many are debating. Will it be the Golden Globe-winning Torres (a winner there has never missed the Oscar nom)? Or the SAG-nominated Anderson? Or will it be the critical darling of Jean-Baptiste? Heck, even Jolie has a chance of pulling off a Kristen Stewart (Spencer) surprise.

1. Demi Moore, The Substance
2. Mikey Madison, Anora
3. Karla Sofia Gascon, Emilia Pérez
4. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked
5. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths
6. Fernanda Torres, I'm Still Here
7. Pamela Anderson, The Last Showgirl
8. Nicole Kidman, Babygirl
9. Angelina Jolie, Maria
10. Kate Winslet, Lee

Actor
These five have coagulated throughout the entire season, but there's always a surprise somewhere. Grant is well-liked, and Stan has two performances that are in the running. Still, it's difficult to not see at least this top four getting in, with Craig/Stan/Grant battling it out.

1. Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown
2. Adrien Brody, The Brutalist
3. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave
4. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing
5. Daniel Craig, Queer
6. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice
7. Hugh Grant, Heretic
8. Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain
9. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man
10. Glen Powell, Hit Man

Supporting Actress
Yet another category where the top four are "safe", with a smattering of others battling it out for the last position. Jamie Lee Curtis is well-liked in the industry and was nominated for the SAG (seemingly out of nowhere, with no real precursor action); Qualley has made a name for herself in a well-liked film; Deadwyler wants to make up for the snub from a few years ago for Till; Barbaro also got the SAG nom in a film that has been picking up speed; and Gomez... well, she's a big star in Emilia Pérez, which will likely be racking up the nominations. So who will it be?

1. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez
2. Ariana Grande, Wicked
3. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave
4. Felicity Jones, The Brutalist
5. Margaret Qualley, The Substance
6. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson
7. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys
8. Jamie Lee Curtis, The Last Showgirl
9. Monica Barbaro, A Complete Unknown
10. Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez

Supporting Actor
Culkin has been sweeping, and is one of the reasons why some are saying his film will get into Best Picture. I'm fairly confident in this top five: any beyond the top seven have really no chance of getting in. Yes, even SAG-nominated Jonathan Bailey, whom seemimgly no one saw coming.

1. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain
2. Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown
3. Guy Pearce, The Brutalist
4. Yura Borisov, Anora
5. Clerence Maclin, Sing Sing
6. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice
7. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II
8. Stanley Tucci, Conclave
9. Jonathan Bailey, Wicked
10. Mark Eydelshteyn, Anora

Adapted Screenplay
I think that A Complete Unknown's rise will displace Dune: Part Two. This one seems ripe for surprises, though.

1. Conclave
2. Emilia Pérez
3. Sing Sing
4. Nickel Boys
5. A Complete Unknown
6. Dune: Part Two
7. Wicked
8. Hit Man
9. Nosferatu
10. I'm Still Here

Original Screenplay
Lo! And behold: another instance of the game "What will make that fifth position?" I think it will be the well-liked Challengers by Justin Kuritzkes, but others are saying it will be September 5, which has picked up a PGA nom. Foreign works by Kapadia and Rasoulof also look promising to me, and we cannot forget that Mike Leigh is very popular among writers.

1. Anora
2. The Brutalist
3. The Substance
4. A Real Pain
5. Challengers
6. September 5
7. Hard Truths
8. All We Imagine as Light
9. The Seed of the Sacred Fig
10. Kneecap

Cinematography
The ASC nominated--get this--seven films this year, and The Brutalist wasn't one of them. Should I be not suggesting this as number one, then? I think this is another category in flux with a lot of great potential nominees, so it's difficult to name only five.

1. The Brutalist
2. Nosferatu
3. Dune: Part Two
4. Conclave
5. Nickel Boys
6. Wicked
7. Maria
8. Emilia Pérez
9. A Complete Unknown
10. The Girl With the Needle

Editing
I'm fairly confident in these top five, and expect Best Picture to eventually be one of these.

1. Conclave
2. Anora
3. Emilia Pérez
4. Dune: Part Two
5. The Brutalist
6. Challengers
7. A Complete Unknown
8. Wicked
9. September 5
10. Nickel Boys

Costume Design
This category seems to be complete chaos this year. Will A Complete Unknown make it in, given its meteoric rise lately? But what will it bump out? Will Blitz follow the BAFTA nod? What about beloved Colleen Atwood's work on Tim Burton's latest?

1. Nosferatu
2. Wicked
3. Gladiator II
4. Dune: Part Two
5. Conclave
6. Maria
7. Blitz
8. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice
9. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga
10. A Complete Unknown

Production Design
Another top four "safe" bets, with three battling it out for that fifth spot.
 
1. The Brutalist
2. Nosferatu
3. Dune: Part Two
4. Wicked
5. Conclave
6. Gladiator II
7. A Complete Unknown
8. Blitz
9. Maria
10. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice

Makeup & Hairstyling
It seems to me that Dune: Part Two has been sinking quite a bit lately; will underdog A Different Man rise to the top five?

1. The Substance
2. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice
3. Wicked
4. Nosferatu
5. Dune: Part Two
6. A Different Man
7. Emilia Pérez
8. The Apprentice
9. Waltzing with Brando
10. Maria

Sound
This category... man, it threw some surprises this year when the shortlist came out. I thought, for example, that Conclave was a shoo-in. I guess not!

1. Dune: Part Two
2. Wicked
3. A Complete Unknown
4. Gladiator II
5. Emilia Pérez
6. Deadpool and Wolverine
7. Alien: Romulus
8. Blitz
9. Joker: Folie a Deux
10. The Wild Robot

Original Score
I'm fairly confident in this category, but perhaps Wicked will indeed make it in.

1. Emilia Pérez
2. The Brutalist
3. Conclave
4. The Wild Robot
5. Challengers
6. Wicked
7. Gladiator II
8. Nosferatu
9. Sing Sing
10. The Room Next Door

Original Song
This, on the other hand, is truly chaos. I really don't know how to make heads or tails of this besides the top three.

1. "El Mal", Emilia Pérez
2. "Mi Camino", Emilia Pérez
3. "Kiss the Sky", The Wild Robot
4. "Compress/Repress", Challengers
5. "Haper and Will Go West", Will & Harper
6. "The Journey", The Six Triple Eight
7. "Never Too Late", Elton John: Never Too Late
8. "Like a Bird", Sing Sing
9. "Piece by Piece", Piece by Piece
10. "Sick in the Head", Kneecap

Visual Effects
The top three seem very safe to me--yes, that makes two ape films--but I think that Twisters will actually get in, despite what I'm listing here.

1. Dune: Part Two
2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes
3. Better Man
4. Gladiator II
5. Wicked
6. Twisters
7. Mufasa: The Lion King
8. Civil War
9. Alien: Romulus
10. Deadpool & Wolverine

International Feature
Another slug-fest is happening here. Besides the top three listed here, this category could go anywhere. I somehow think that the Thai entry will sneak in, above the more likely entries here.

1. Emilia Pérez (France)
2. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (Germany)
3. I'm Still Here (Brazil)
4. Kneecap (Ireland)
5. The Girl With the Needle (Denmark)
6. Flow (Latvia)
7. Vermiglio (Italy)
8. Universal Language (Canada)
9. How to Make Millions Before Grandma Dies (Thailand)
10. Dahomey (Senegal)
11. From Ground Zero (Palestine)

Animated Feature
Will it be Memoir of a Snail, or Moana 2? I think the quirky feature will take precedence over the blockbuster.

1. The Wild Robot
2. Flow
3. Inside Out 2
4. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl
5. Memoir of a Snail
6. Moana 2
7. Piece by Piece
8. Chicken for Linda!
9. Transformers One
10. Kung Fu Panda 4

Documentary Feature
Complete and utter crap shoot here. I have no idea what's going on in this category.

1. No Other Land
2. Dahomey
3. Porcelain War
4. Sugarcane
5. Black Box Diaries
6. The Remarkable Life of Ibelin
7. Daughters
8. Will & Harper
9. Queendom
10. Soundtrack of a Coup d'Etat
Also in Contention: Eno; Hollywoodgate; Frida; Union; The Bibi Files

TALLIES

So it seems that Emilia Pérez will lead the way, with The Brutalist and Conclave closely behind. The fact that we may have five films with eight or more nominations each is actually kind of astounding, and shows how much the season has solidified around eight or so films. Quite the number of single-nom films, though!

Eleven: Emilia Pérez
Ten: The Brutalist, Conclave
Eight: Dune: Part Two, Wicked
Six: Anora, The Substance
Five: A Complete Unknown
Four: Nosferatu, Sing Sing
Three: A Real Pain, Challengers, Gladiator II, The Wild Robot
Two: Nickel Boys
One: Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, Better Man, Black Box Diaries, Dahomey,  Flow, The Girl with the Needle, Hard Truths, Inside Out 2, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Kneecap, Memoir of a Snail, No Other Land, Porcelain War, Queer, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, Sugarcane Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, Will & Harper,

Oscar Nominations Reaction 2022

75/105

Certainly not my best year, but that's also because of so many surprises! Almost every category had a "Huh! Didn't see that coming" moment: Nightmare Alley sneaking into Picture; Villeneuve missing like he did at the BAFTAs; surprises in both supporting acting roles (Simmons? Dench?); West Side Story doing well, but not quite as well as I was expecting; editing, which left out some key players; Drive My Car getting four nominations, not just for International; and the hilarious snubs of House of Gucci.

It certainly looks like The Power of the Dog's to lose at this point, as it leads with twelve nominations, a little bit more than what people were predicting.

Best Picture

1. Belfast
2. The Power of the Dog
3. Dune
4. West Side Story
5. Licorice Pizza
6. CODA
7. King Richard
8. Don't Look Up
10. Drive My Car
13. Nightmare Alley

9/10

Director
I'm sorry, what? Did Dune just direct itself to ten nominations?

1. Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog
3. Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza
4. Kenneth Branagh, Belfast
5. Steven Spielberg, West Side Story
6. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Drive My Car

4/5

Actress
Gaga, who has been campaigning hard for the nomination, has been snubbed! Stewart, who many were considering to be out of the rankings because of misses with BAFTA and SAG, makes it in.

1. Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos
2. Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter
4. Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye
6. Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers
7. Kristen Stewart, Spencer

3/5

Actor
Aaaaaand it's the SAG five.

1. Will Smith, King Richard
2. Benedict Cumberpatch, The Power of the Dog
3. Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth
4. Andrew Garfield, tick, tick... Boom!
6. Javier Bardem, Being the Ricardos

4/5

Supporting Actress
Belfast was nominated here, but with a different actress: the legendary Judi Dench, whom I suspected early on would make it in, but never had the guts to say.

1. Ariana DeBose, West Side Story
2. Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog
4. Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard
8. Jessie Buckley, The Lost Daughter
-. Judi Dench, Belfast

3/5

Supporting Actor

1. Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog
2. Troy Kotsur, CODA
3. Ciaran Hinds, Belfast
7. Jesse Plemons, The Power of the Dog
-. J.K. Simmons, Being the Ricardos

3/5

Adapted Screenplay

1. The Power of the Dog
2. CODA
4. Dune
5. Drive My Car
6. The Lost Daughter

4/5

Original Screenplay

1. Licorice Pizza
2. Belfast
3. King Richard
4. Don't Look Up
10. The Worst Person in the World

4/5

Editing

1. Dune
2. The Power of the Dog
6. Don't Look Up
7. tick, tick... Boom!
8. King Richard

2/5

Cinematography

1. Dune
2. The Power of the Dog
3. The Tragedy of Macbeth
4. West Side Story
6. Nightmare Alley

4/5

Production Design

1. Dune
2. Nightmare Alley
3. West Side Story
5. The Tragedy of Macbeth
-. The Power of the Dog

4/5

Costume Design
When House of Gucci missed here, I knew the film was in trouble and anticipated snubs.

1. Cruella
2. Dune
4. West Side Story
5. Nightmare Alley
7. Cyrano

4/5

Makeup and Hairstyling

1. The Eyes of Tammy Faye
2. Dune
3. Cruella
4. House of Gucci
9. Coming 2 America

4/5

Original Score

1. Dune
2. The Power of the Dog
3. Don't Look Up
4. Encanto
6. Parallel Mothers

4/5


Original Song

1. "No Time to Die", No Time to Die
2. "Dos Oruguitas", Encanto
3. "Be Alive", King Richard
7. "Down to Joy", Belfast
-. "Somehow You Do", Four Good Days

3/5

Sound

1. Dune
2. West Side Story
3. No Time to Die
5. Belfast
6. The Power of the Dog

4/5

Visual Effects

1. Dune
2. Spider-Man: No Way Home
3. Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings
6. No Time to Die
7. Free Guy

3/5

Animated Feature

1. Encanto
2. Flee
3. The Mitchells vs the Machines
4. Luca
5. Raya and the Last Dragon

5/5


International Feature

1. Drive My Car (Japan)
3. Flee (Denmark)
4. The Worst Person in the World (Norway)
5. The Hand of God (Italy)
8. Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom (Bhutan)

4/5

Documentary Feature

1. Flee
4. Ascension
5. Summer of Soul
8. Attica
10. Writing with Fire

3/5

Tallies: Films With More Than One Nomination

The Power of the Dog 12
Dune 10
West Side Story 7
Belfast 7
King Richard 6
Don't Look Up 4
Drive My Car 4
Nightmare Alley 4
Being the Ricardos 3
CODA 3
Encanto 3
Flee 3
Licorice Pizza 3
The Lost Daughter 3
The Tragedy of Macbeth 3
No Time to Die 3
Cruella 2
The Eyes of Tammy Faye 2
Parallel Mothers 2
tick, tick... Boom! 2
The Worst Person in the World 2

Oscar Nominations Predictions 2022

I haven't been following the Oscar race as closely this year, with one primary reason: I haven't been to the cinema since the pandemic started. Therefore, I haven't seen these films... but I'm still making my predictions! This is based on critical and industry support, along with following Film Twitter and awards blogs. It looks like it's a four-way race between Belfast, The Power of the Dog, Dune and West Side Story for Oscar glory, with these films leading the tally.

Best Picture

1. Belfast
2. The Power of the Dog
3. Dune
4. West Side Story
5. Licorice Pizza
6. CODA
7. King Richard
8. Don't Look Up
9. tick, tick... Boom!
10. Drive My Car
11. The Tragedy of Macbeth
12. Being the Ricardos
13. Nightmare Alley
14. House of Gucci
15. The Lost Daughter
16. Spider-Man: No Way Home
17. Cyrano
18. Spencer
19. Titane
20. Parallel Mothers

Director
I'm going with the DGA five, but this is a category ripe for surprises.

1. Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog
2. Denis Villeneuve, Dune
3. Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza
4. Kenneth Branagh, Belfast
5. Steven Spielberg, West Side Story
6. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Drive My Car
7. Julia Ducournau, Titane
8. Joel Coen, The Tragedy of Macbeth
9. Pedro Almodovar, Parallel Mothers
10. Adam McKay, Don't Look Up
Also in Contention: Reinaldo Marcus Green (King Richard), Guillermo del Toro (Nightmare Alley), Maggie Gyllenhaal (The Lost Daughter), Lin-Manuel Miranda (tick, tick... Boom!), Sian Heder (CODA)

Actress
Unlike last year, where the final five were widely predicted, this time there is a general consensus that the category is in flux. No one can agree on who's the front-runner, with Stewart missing out on some major award nominations when only a few months ago she was practically crowned Victor-in-Waiting. I think that Haim will make it in, but I'm not confident in this lineup at all. Expect there to be some surprises tomorrow morning.

1. Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos
2. Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter
3. Lady Gaga, House of Gucci
4. Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye
5. Alana Haim, Licorice Pizza
6. Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers
7. Kristen Stewart, Spencer
8. Jennifer Hudson, Respect
9. Rachel Zegler, West Side Story
10. Frances McDormand, The Tragedy of Macbeth

Actor
I'm just not convinced that Bardem will translate his SAG nomination to an Oscar one. Does that mean that DiCaprio will sneak into that fifth place? Or will Dinklage or Cage make it in, with their well-received performances in smaller films?

1. Will Smith, King Richard
2. Benedict Cumberpatch, The Power of the Dog
3. Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth
4. Andrew Garfield, tick, tick... Boom!
5. Nicolas Cage, Pig
6. Javier Bardem, Being the Ricardos
7. Leonardo DiCaprio, Don't Look Up
8. Peter Dinklage, Cyrano
9. Adam Driver, Annette
10. Hidetoshi Nishijima, Drive My Car

Supporting Actress
How wonderful would it be to see Moreno make it in, along with DeBose? I mean, to see Moreno, who won the Oscar for the 1961 West Side Story as Anita, watch rising star DeBose win for the same role? That's just the kind of delicious thing that the Academy lives for. Alas, I don't think Moreno will make it in, but this is a strong category that is just itching for a surprise.

1. Ariana DeBose, West Side Story
2. Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog
3. Caitriona Balfe, Belfast
4. Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard
5. Ruth Negga, Passing
6. Ann Dowd, Mass
7. Rita Moreno, West Side Story
8. Jessie Buckley, The Lost Daughter
9. Marlee Matlin, CODA
10. Cate Blanchett, Nightmare Alley

Supporting Actor
Please don't make me list Jared Leto for his "Mamma-Mia, I like-a-da-spicy-meatball" performance.

1. Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog
2. Troy Kotsur, CODA
3. Ciaran Hinds, Belfast
4. Bradley Cooper, Licorice Pizza
5. Mike Faist, West Side Story
6. Jared Leto, House of Gucci
7. Jesse Plemons, The Power of the Dog
8. Jamie Dornan, Belfast
9. Ben Affleck, The Tender Bar
10. Jason Isaacs, Mass

Adapted Screenplay
What a category! I think any of the top ten here have a chance to make it in. I'm not all that convinced with CODA, but the industry awards to far have been in its favour, so there we have it.

1. The Power of the Dog
2. CODA
3. West Side Story
4. Dune
5. Drive My Car
6. The Lost Daughter
7. The Tragedy of Macbeth
8. Nightmare Alley
9. Passing
10. tick, tick... Boom!

Original Screenplay
A remarkably weak category this year, with two films that were not all that well received sneaking into the top five positions, yet getting industry support: Don't Look Up and Being the Ricardos.

1. Licorice Pizza
2. Belfast
3. King Richard
4. Don't Look Up
5. Being the Ricardos
6. Parallel Mothers
7. Mass
8. A Hero
9. Pig
10. The Worst Person in the World

Editing
I suspect that Drive My Car may make it in, but with no precursor mentions, it's at the bottom of my top ten list. So why do I think this? Because the last few weeks have been a flurry of people talking about the film, and with its surprising pacing and gutsy decisions (with the title card 45 minutes into the film). Still, you can't go wrong with this top five.

1. Dune
2. The Power of the Dog
3. Belfast
4. Licorice Pizza
5. West Side Story
6. Don't Look Up
7. tick, tick... Boom!
8. King Richard
9. Summer of Soul
10. Drive My Car

Cinematography
I'm not seeing anyone mention Passing in their nominations, but it's another film that I think may surprise here.

1. Dune
2. The Power of the Dog
3. The Tragedy of Macbeth
4. West Side Story
5. Belfast
6. Nightmare Alley
7. The Green Knight
8. Spencer
9. tick, tick... Boom!
10. Passing

Production Design

1. Dune
2. Nightmare Alley
3. West Side Story
4. The French Dispatch
5. The Tragedy of Macbeth
6. Cyrano
7. Belfast
8. Spencer
9. Cruella
10. The Last Duel

Costume Design

1. Cruella
2. Dune
3. House of Gucci
4. West Side Story
5. Nightmare Alley
6. Spencer
7. Cyrano
8. The French Dispatch
9. Coming 2 America
10. Annette

Makeup and Hairstyling

1. The Eyes of Tammy Faye
2. Dune
3. Cruella
4. House of Gucci
5. West Side Story
6. Nightmare Alley
7. The Suicide Squad
8. Cyrano
9. Coming 2 America
10. No Time to Die

Original Score

1. Dune
2. The Power of the Dog
3. Don't Look Up
4. Encanto
5. The French Dispatch
6. Parallel Mothers
7. Spencer
8. No Time to Die
9. The Harder They Fall
10. The Green Knight

Original Song
No, "We Don't Talk About Bruno" won't be nominated. Why? Because it wasn't submitted for consideration, something that a lot of people have been calling a huge mistake for Disney.

1. "No Time to Die", No Time to Die
2. "Dos Oruguitas", Encanto
3. "Be Alive", King Richard
4. "Just Look Up", Don't Look Up
5. "Here I Am Singing My Way Home", Respect
6. "Guns Go Bang", The Harder They Fall
7. "Down to Joy", Belfast
8. "So May We Start", Annette
9. "Your Song Saved My Life", Sing 2
10. "Beyond the Shore", CODA

Sound

1. Dune
2. West Side Story
3. No Time to Die
4. tick, tick... Boom!
5. Belfast
6. The Power of the Dog
7. Spider-Man: No Way Home
8. A Quiet Place Part II
9. The Matrix Resurrections
10. Last Night in Soho

Visual Effects

1. Dune
2. Spider-Man: No Way Home
3. Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings
4. The Matrix Resurrections
5. Godzilla vs. Kong
6. No Time to Die
7. Free Guy
8. Eternals
9. Ghostbusters: Afterlife
10. Black Widow

Animated Feature
You'll notice something here: Flee is predicted in Animated, International and Documentary feature categories. Cool!

1. Encanto
2. Flee
3. The Mitchells vs the Machines
4. Luca
5. Raya and the Last Dragon
6. Belle
7. Sing 2
8. The Summit of the Gods
9. ??
10. ??


International Feature

1. Drive My Car (Japan)
2. A Hero (Iran)
3. Flee (Denmark)
4. The Worst Person in the World (Norway)
5. The Hand of God (Italy)
6. Compartment No 6 (Finland)
7. Hive (Kosovo)
8. Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom (Bhutan)
9. Lamb (Iceland)

Documentary Feature
There's always a surprise here, usually the snub of a supposed front-runner. I think it'll be Summer of Soul that will be snubbed here, but I'm still placing it in my top 5, because all industry support is suggesting it.

1. Flee
2. The Rescue
3. Procession
4. Ascension
5. Summer of Soul
6. Julia
7. The Velvet Underground
8. Attica
9. The First Wave
10. Writing with Fire

Tallies: Films With More Than One Nomination

Dune 11
West Side Story 11
The Power of the Dog 9
Belfast 8
Licorice Pizza 6
King Richard 5
Don't Look Up 4
CODA 3
Drive My Car 3
Encanto 3
Flee 3
House of Gucci 3
tick, tick... Boom! 3
The Tragedy of Macbeth 3
Being the Ricardos 2
Cruella 2
The Eyes of Tammy Faye 2
The French Dispatch 2
Nightmare Alley 2
No Time to Die 2

Oscar Nominations 2021 Reaction

79/103
If I did the math right, was this my worst year since I've been keeping track? I certainly seems so, dipping into the 70s, but then I remembered: one less category. Sound has been consolidated. So if I add three (let's say I got 3/5 to match each category to what I actually got), I get 82, which is about par.
So I think the story of this year is Judas and the Black Messiah, which has six nominations, including Best Picture and two in Supporting Actor -- four more than the two nominations I was expecting. Ma Rainey's Black Bottom didn't do quite as well as I was guessing, but I think in retrospect it makes sense. Interesting to see it miss out on Picture along with One Night in Miami, as both are stage adaptations, and although I haven't seen them yet, word is that both are, well, stagey.
Nomadland seems to be the frontrunner here now, as Trial missed out on a crucial Directing nomination: but as we have seen, this hasn't meant much the past few years. Green Book, anyone?

Best Picture
I've been over the past few years getting all of these correct. Not this year! Ma Rainey and One Night in Miami miss out.

1. Nomadland
2. The Trial of the Chicago 7
3. Minari
4. Promising Young Woman
5. Mank
8. Sound of Metal
11. Judas and the Black Messiah
13. The Father
6/8


Director
There were rumblings online that Vinterberg would be the surprise here, and they were correct. Happy to see two women become nominees. Sorry, Sorkin!

1. Chloé Zhao, Nomadland
2. David Fincher, Mank
4. Lee Isaac Chung, Minari
5. Emerald Fennell, Promising Young Woman
10. Thomas Vinterberg, Another Round
4/5

Actress

1. Viola Davis, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
2. Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman
3. Frances McDormand, Nomadland
4. Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday
5. Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman
5/5

Actor

1. Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
2. Anthony Hopkins, The Father
3. Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal
4. Gary Oldman, Mank
5. Steven Yuen, Minari
5/5

Supporting Actress

1. Olivia Colman, The Father
2. Yuh-Jung Youn, Minari
3. Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
5. Amanda Seyfried, Mank
6. Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy
4/5

Supporting Actor
No one, and as far as I can tell, no one expected Judas to get two nominations here. Apparently the film is without a lead?

1. Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah
2. Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7
3. Leslie Odom Jr., One Night in Miami
4. Paul Raci, Sound of Metal
-. Lakeith Stanfield, Judas and the Black Messiah
4/5

Original Screenplay
A strong category, but Mank missing out is the story here. Sorry, David Fincher's father.

1. The Trial of the Chicago 7
2. Promising Young Woman
3. Minari
5. Sound of Metal
7. Judas and the Black Messiah
4/5

Adapted Screenplay
Okay, I loved hearing Borat Subsequent Moviefilm's full title and writing team being read aloud. Hilarious.

1. Nomadland
2. One Night in Miami
3. The Father
7. Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
9. The White Tiger
3/5


Editing
Mank didn't do as well as I thought it would, and with it missing here and in Original Screenplay.

1. The Trial of the Chicago 7
2. Nomadland
4. Sound of Metal
5. Promising Young Woman
6. The Father
4/5

Cinematography
I was right: there are surprises here. Minari misses out, and Judas continues its streak.

1. Nomadland
2. Mank
3. News of the World
6. The Trial of the Chicago 7
7. Judas and the Black Messiah
3/5

Production Design
Certainly didn't see The Father walking in here.

1. Mank
2. Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
3. News of the World
5. Tenet
-. The Father
4/5

Costume Design
Didn't expect Pinocchio to be double-nominated this year.

1. Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
2. Mank
3. Emma.
4. Mulan
-. Pinocchio
4/5

Makeup and Hairstyling
I really didn't want to see Hillbilly Elegy to be nominated here, but it was. It might win, too.

1. Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
2. Mank
3. Hillbilly Elegy
5. Emma.
6. Pinocchio
4/5

Original Score
NIN are double nominees. Wow!

1. Soul
2. Mank
3. Minari
4. News of the World
7. Da 5 Bloods
4/5

Original Song
It's rare that I get more than three here, let alone all five nominees.

1. "Speak Now", One Night in Miami
2. "Io Si (Seen)", The Life Ahead
3. "Fight for You", Judas and the Black Messiah
4. "Hear My Voice", The Trial of the Chicago 7
5. "Husavik", Eurovision Song Contest
5/5

Sound
Formerly Sound Mixing and Sound (Effects) Editing. For my score, assume this is doubled.

1. Sound of Metal
2. Mank
3. Soul
6. News of the World
7. Greyhound
3/5


Visual Effects
I found this to be a rather strange line-up, given the two surprises. I'm not even sure if I had heard of The One and Only Ivan before I started researching possible nominees.

1. Tenet
2. The Midnight Sky
3. Mulan
7. The One and Only Ivan
9. Love and Monsters
3/5

Animated Feature
I correctly predicted the selected five, foreseeing that the branch wouldn't nominate The Croods sequel.

1. Soul
2. Wolfwalkers
3. Onward
4. Over the Moon
5. Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon


International Feature
Two surprises!

1. Another Round (Denmark)
2. Quo Vadis, Aida? (Bosnia and Herzegovina)
3. Collective (Romania)
-. Better Days (Hong Kong)
-. The Man Who Sold His Skin
3/5

Documentary Feature
My worst category this year. Mole Agent surprises out of nowhere, and two well-received films that were expected to show up didn't. Always a tough call, this category is.

1. Time
2. Collective
6. Crip Camp
8. My Octopus Teacher
-. The Mole Agent
2/5

TALLIES
Films With More Than One Nomination
Nominations (Predicted Nominations)
Mank - 10 (13)
Judas and the Black Messiah - 6 (2)
Minari - 6 (7)
Nomadland - 6 (6)
Sound of Metal - 6 (6)
The Father - 6 (3)
The Trial of the Chicago 7 - 6 (6)
Ma Rainey's Black Bottom - 5 (8)
Promising Young Woman - 5 (5)
News of the World - 4 (5)
One Night in Miami - 3 (4)
Soul- 3 (4)
Tenet - 2 (4)
Mulan - 2 (3)
Another Round - 2 (1)
Borat Subsequent Moviefilm - 2 (1)
Collective - 2 (2)
Emma. - 2 (2)
Hillbilly Elegy - 2 (0)
Pinocchio - 2 (0)
Da 5  Bloods - 1 (2)

Oscar Nominations Predictions 2021

What a bizarre year 2020 was. Let's not dwell on the misery that it was, and let's divert our attention to the late Oscar season.

Mank seems to be poised to be the leader of this year's nominations --I'm looking at 13 nods-- but I don't see it translating well to Oscar night. The frontrunners in that respect are Nomadland and The Trial of the Chicago 7. Consensus seems to be that Trial will pick up Picture and Nomadland Directing, resulting in a "split year". In years past the general trick was to never predict Picture/Directing splits, as they were very difficult to see coming -- but as we have seen since Argo, these have become more common.

But the main story here is the diversity of nominees: we are suspecting that THREE of the Directing nominations could be women (Zhao, Fennell and King), which would also make (with Chung's Minari) THREE non-white directors. Considering that most years have five white men as the nominees, this is astounding!

Looking at the tallies, I see there are two films that I'm surprised to see racking up the potential nominations: Ma Rainey's Black Bottom (8 nods) and Sound of Metal (6 nods). Who woulda thunk it? Certainly not me a year ago.

Best Picture

1. Nomadland
2. The Trial of the Chicago 7
3. Minari
4. Promising Young Woman
5. Mank
6. One Night in Miami
7. Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
8. Sound of Metal
9. Da 5 Bloods
10. Soul
11. Judas and the Black Messiah
12. News of the World
13. The Father
14. Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
15. First Cow
16. The Mauritanian
17. Tenet
18. Pieces of a Woman
19. Hillbilly Elegy
20. Another Round

Director
How exciting would it be to have THREE women nominated? I think King might sneak in, but at whose expense? Could Sorkin miss? Or even *gasp* Fincher? I don't think anyone is locked here other than Zhao, including Fennell.

1. Chloé Zhao, Nomadland
2. David Fincher, Mank
3. Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7
4. Lee Isaac Chung, Minari
5. Emerald Fennell, Promising Young Woman
6. Regina King, One Night in Miami
7. Spike Lee, Da 5 Bloods
8. Darius Marder, Sound of Metal
9. Florian Zeller, The Father
10. Thomas Vinterberg, Another Round
Also in Contention: Paul Greengrass (News of the World) Shaka King (Judas and the Black Messiah), Kelly Reichardt (First Cow), George C. Wolfe (Ma Rainey's Black Bottom)

Actress
The top five here seem to be the general consensus: it's unlikely there will be a surprise here.

1. Viola Davis, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
2. Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman
3. Frances McDormand, Nomadland
4. Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday
5. Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman
6. Sophia Loren, The Life Ahead
7. Amy Adams, Hillbilly Elegy
8. Zendaya, Malcolm and Marie
9. Michelle Pfeiffer, French Exit
10. Yeri Han, Minari

Actor
I have a suspicion that Mikkelsen will make his way in, but again, at whose expense? Yuen?

1. Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
2. Anthony Hopkins, The Father
3. Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal
4. Gary Oldman, Mank
5. Steven Yuen, Minari
6. Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods
7. Mads Mikkelsen, Another Round
8. Kingsley Ben-Adir, One Night in Miami
9. Tom Hanks, News of the World
10. LaKeith Stanfield, Judas and the Black Messiah

Supporting Actress
This is a strange category: everyone's saying Close is in, but I really don't think she survived the critical bashing of the film. Foster won the Globe, meaning that she's likely nominated, and Bakalova has been doing quite well I think. Seyfried seems to be the weak one here, but I somehow have a feeling that she's in.

1. Olivia Colman, The Father
2. Yuh-Jung Youn, Minari
3. Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
4. Jodie Foster, The Mauritanian
5. Amanda Seyfried, Mank
6. Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy
7. Ellen Burstyn, Pieces of a Woman
8. Helena Zengel, News of the World
9. Saoirse Ronan, Ammonite
10. Dominque Fishback, Judas and the Black Messiah

Supporting Actor
Will Trial of the Chicago 7 be multi-nominated here? If so, with who?

1. Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah
2. Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7
3. Leslie Odom Jr., One Night in Miami
4. Paul Raci, Sound of Metal
5. Chadwick Boseman, Da 5 Bloods
6. Mark Rylance, The Trial of the Chicago 7
7. Jared Leto, The Little Things
8. Alan Kim, Minari
9. Bill Murray, On the Rocks
10. Yahya Abdul-Mateen II, The Trial of the Chicago 7

Original Screenplay
A rather strong category this year. I can see any of the top 8 getting in.

1. The Trial of the Chicago 7
2. Promising Young Woman
3. Minari
4. Mank
5. Sound of Metal
6. Soul
7. Judas and the Black Messiah
8. Da 5 Bloods
9. On the Rocks
10. Never Rarely Always Sometimes

Adapted Screenplay

1. Nomadland
2. One Night in Miami
3. The Father
4. News of the World
5. Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
6. I'm Thinking of Ending Things
7. Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
8. First Cow
9. The White Tiger
10. The Mauritanian

Editing

1. The Trial of the Chicago 7
2. Nomadland
3. Mank
4. Sound of Metal
5. Promising Young Woman
6. The Father
7. Minari
8. Tenet
9. News of the World
10. Da 5 Bloods

Cinematography
Tenet wasn't nominated by the Guild, but Trial was -- I still don't think that Trial's rather generic cinematography is deserving, but it somehow snuck in. Let's see if there's a surprise: I feel that this category is ripe for one.

1. Nomadland
2. Mank
3. News of the World
4. Minari
5. Tenet
6. The Trial of the Chicago 7
7. Judas and the Black Messiah
8. Da 5 Bloods
9. Cherry
10. Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

Production Design

1. Mank
2. Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
3. News of the World
4. Mulan
5. Tenet
6. Emma.
7. The Midnight Sky
8. The Trial of the Chicago 7
9. Personal History of David Copperfield
10. Rebecca

Costume Design

1. Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
2. Mank
3. Emma.
4. Mulan
5. News of the World
6. The United States vs. Billie Holiday
7. Personal History of David Copperfield
8. Ammonite
9. Promising Young Woman
10. Birds of Prey

Makeup and Hairstyling
I really don't want to see Hillbilly Elegy to be nominated here, but I suspect it will.
1. Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
2. Mank
3. Hillbilly Elegy
4. Birds of Prey
5. Emma.
6. Pinocchio
7. Jingle Jangle: A Christmas Journey
8. One Night in Miami
9. The Glorias
10. The Little Things

Original Score

1. Soul
2. Mank
3. Minari
4. News of the World
5. The Midnight Sky
6. Tenet
7. Da 5 Bloods
8. The Trial of the Chicago 7
9. The Little Things
10. Mulan

Original Song

1. "Speak Now", One Night in Miami
2. "Io Si (The Life Ahead)", Seen
3. "Fight for You", Judas and the Black Messiah
4. "Hear My Voice", The Trial of the Chicago 7
5. "Husavik", Eurovision Song Contest
6. "Turntables", All In: The Fight for Democracy
7. "Wuhan Flu", Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
8. "Rain Song", Minari
9. "Green", Sound of Metal
10. "Loyal Brave True", Mulan

Sound

1. Sound of Metal
2. Mank
3. Soul
4. Tenet
5. Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
6. News of the World
7. Greyhound
8. Nomadland
9. The Midnight Sky
10. The Trial of the Chicago 7

Visual Effects

1. Tenet
2. The Midnight Sky
3. Mulan
4. Mank
5. Welcome to Chechnya
6. Birds of Prey
7. The One and Only Ivan
8. Soul
9. Love and Monsters
10. Bloodshot

Animated Feature

1. Soul
2. Wolfwalkers
3. Onward
4. Over the Moon
5. Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon
6. The Croods: A New Age
7. The Willoughbys
8. Earwig and the Witch
9. Trolls World Tour
10. No. 7 Cherry Lane


International Feature
I think that A Sun from Taiwan, which has recently been getting some notice by critics and audiences, will be the surprise here.

1. Another Round (Denmark)
2. Quo Vadis, Aida? (Bosnia and Herzegovina)
3. Collective (Romania)
4. La Llorona (Guatemala)
5. Two of Us (France)
6. Dear Comrades! (Russia)
7. A Sun (Taiwan)
8. Night of the Kings (Cote d'Ivoire)
9. I'm No Longer Here (Mexico)

Documentary Feature

1. Time
2. Collective
3. Welcome to Chechnya
4. Dick Johnson is Dead
5. Boys State
6. Crip Camp
7. All In: The Fight for Democracy
8. My Octopus Teacher
9. The Truffle Hunters
10. 76 Days

TALLIES
Films With More Than One Nomination
Mank - 13
Ma Rainey's Black Bottom - 8
Minari - 7
Nomadland - 6
Sound of Metal - 6
The Trial of the Chicago 7 - 6
News of the World - 5
Promising Young Woman - 5
One Night in Miami - 4
Soul- 4
Tenet - 4
The Father - 3
Mulan - 3
Da 5  Bloods - 2
Emma. - 2
Judas and the Black Messiah - 2
The Midnight Sky - 2
Welcome to Chechnya - 2

Oscar Predictions 2017

This should be a cakewalk for La La Land this year, as I'm expecting it to sweep the categories. Picture, Director and Actress are almost givens, as is Score, Song and Sound Mixing. In Original Screenplay, it's a toss-up between the film and Lonergan's Manchester by the Sea; will the Academy want to award this indie darling here, seeing that Denzel Washington looks to beat the previously anointed Casey Affleck? In the craft categories, Cinematography is La La Land's best bet, with Hacksaw Ridge giving it competition for Editing. In Production Design, I'm still expecting it to win despite the film's rather modest design --but remember, it's Best design, not Most design, and I'm quite the cheerleader for the film. But if voters want to award something flashier, maybe it'll be Fantastic Beasts, or even Arrival. Speaking of a category in which something flashier usually wins, I'm expecting La La Land to lose in the category of Costume Design, bowing out to Jackie. So that leaves Sound Editing... and let's be honest, it's somewhat miraculous it was even nominated in this category, so I'm expecting Hacksaw Ridge to pick up this award.

So what does that leave us with? Viola Davis has been sweeping the season with Fences, and for good reason: she's excellent in it, and she's overdue for an award after losing Best Actress to Meryl Streep a few years ago. Supporting Actor is a curious category, as many are expecting Mahershala Ali to pick up the award for Moonlight --but at the BAFTAs and the Globes, he lost to Dev Patel and (the not nominated) Aaron Taylor-Johnson. If there's a snub-surprise on Sunday night, I'm expecting it to be here for Patel. Still, I'm predicting Ali to get one of Moonlight's two awards, the other one being Adapted Screenplay. But if there's an award that the beautiful Moonlight I feel doesn't deserve, it's for its screenplay. Arrival would be a better choice, and will the Academy agree with me? Probably not. (For the record, Moonlight is a masterpiece of editing, cinematography and acting, but I think its screenplay is a bit... well, thin.) But I digress.

Makeup and Hairstyling should go to Star Trek Beyond, the second win in the category for the rebooted series. Visual effects will probably go The Jungle Book, but I feel that this is a category ripe for a surprise this year. For the three other feature categories, I'm going for Zootopia, OJ: Made in America and not Toni Erdmann, but The Salesman. Just a hunch that a lot of other predictors are also making, although don't be surprised if A Man Called Ove picks it up. (Erdmann is probably just too weird for the voters in this category.) And that leaves the shorts. Always a crapshoot. So let's go with The White Helmets over Joe's Violin in Doc Short, because, hey, why not. Animated Short is widely expected to go for Piper, and I agree. And finally, Live Action Short has prognosticators all over the place, as it usually does, but the lead is probably for Ennemis Interieurs. So let's go with that.

So that makes me believe that La La Land will win the night with 10 awards. Wow!

Best Picture
Will Win: La La Land
If Hell Freezes Over: Moonlight

Director
Will Win: Damien Chazelle, La La Land
If Hell Freezes Over: Barry Jenkins, Moonlight

Actress
Will Win: Emma Stone, La La Land
Might Win: Isabelle Huppert, Elle

Actor
Will Win: Denzel Washington, Fences
Might Win: Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea

Supporting Actress
Will Win: Viola Davis, Fences
Shocker: Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea

Supporting Actor
Will Win: Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
Might Win: Dev Patel, Lion

Original Screenplay
Will Win: La La Land
Might Win: Manchester by the Sea

Adapted Screenplay
Will Win: Moonlight
Might Win: Arrival

Editing
Will Win: La La Land
Might Win: Hacksaw Ridge

Cinematography
Will Win: La La Land
Might Win: Arrival

Production Design
Will Win: La La Land
Might Win: Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them

Costume Design
Will Win: Jackie
Might Win: La La Land

Makeup and Hairstyling
Will Win: Star Trek Beyond
Might Win: A Man Called Ove

Original Score
Will Win: La La Land
If Hell Freezes Over: Moonlight

Original Song
Will Win: "City of Stars", La La Land
Might Win: "Audition (The Fools Who Dream)", La La Land

Sound Mixing
Will Win: La La Land
Might Win: Hacksaw Ridge
Dark Horse: Arrival

Sound Editing
Will Win: Hacksaw Ridge
Might Win: Arrival
If There Really is a Sweep Goin' On: La La Land

Visual Effects
Will Win: The Jungle Book
Might Win: Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

Animated Feature
Will Win: Zootopia
Might Win: Kubo and the Two Strings

Foreign Language Feature
Will Win: The Salesman
Might Win: A Man Called Ove

Documentary Feature
Will Win: OJ: Made in America
Might Win: 13th

Animated Short
Will Win: Piper
Might Win: Pearl

Live Action Short
Will Win: Ennemis Interieurs
Might Win: Timecode
But Really, Who Knows?: La Femme et le TGV

Documentary Short
Will Win: The White Helmets
Might Win: Joe's Violin

85th Academy Awards Telecast Review

Seth Macfarlane is a divisive figure, and this is exactly why he's a poor choice. His Family Guy humour delights some, drives others nuts, and flat-out offends a good chunk. So why give him the reigns over the Academy Awards? It seems that each year now the producers try to make the ceremony "younger" and "edgier", and these attempts inevitably fail. With Macfarlane, it seems that they were trying to give the show an irreverent flair, mimicking the energy that Ricky Gervais brought to the Golden Globes a few years ago. Gervais was a hit amongst audiences with his razor-sharp mockery of Hollywood back-patting, and I can see why producers would think that a similar approach would work at the Oscars.

The problem is, the Oscars are not the Globes. The Globes have always been a party, with free-flowing alcohol, large dinner tables, and half of the awards going to television and a quarter to comedy-musical film. It's a looser ceremony -- and I don't think "ceremony" is the word to describe the Globes, anyways. But the Academy Awards? It's a horse of a different colour.

I don't say this to imply that the Oscars are some sort of sacred cow that demands capital-R Respect. Bob Hope, host for many many years, had a comedic style that would often mock the celebrities attending. But it was a kind of good-natured barb, never twisting the knife too deep and still keeping some aspect of classiness to the show. Macfarlane has never been classy, nor has he been one to keep things on the side of good taste.

It seems to me that was one of the biggest problems of the show last night: Macfarlane mistakes irreverence with the tasteless, the cruel and the juvenile. Take his joke about Chris Brown and Rihanna. Is making light of spousal abuse ever within the grounds of good-natured humour? What about implying that Jennifer Aniston was a stripper? Or that Spanish People Talk Funny with his barb about Salma Hayek, who then walked out looking very self-conscious and maybe even embarrassed? Or his joke about eating disorders?

His nearly twenty minute opening sketch dragged on, and he still had the nerve to make jokes later on in the program about how long the ceremony is. Seth? Maybe the ceremony is too long because you keep insisting on having more time for your frat-boy shtick.

But Macfarlane certainly wasn't the only problem with the show last night. Oh gawd no. I think most of the blame can be placed on Craig Zadan and Neil Meron, producers of the show, as well as long-time director Don Mischer, who is somehow an acclaimed director of live television events. The show was a shapeless mess, with strange transitions, bone-headed decisions and a total lack of energy. Where to begin?

The tribute to the last ten years of movie musicals was mostly a Chicago-fest -- a film that Zadan and Meron happened to produce -- and strangely focused on only three films. Where was Hairspray, High School Musical, Sweeney Todd, Rent, Fame, Mamma Mia!, Across the Universe, Enchanted, Nine, Footloose, The Producers, Hedwig and the Angry Inch? I'm not a fan of some of these, but if you're going to have a tribute to a decade of musical film, maybe try to be representative of it.

The sets. Boring. Snore. Cheap. Thin. Jennifer Hudson sings on a basically blank stage. Catherine Zeta-Jones has a snap of a performance, but in front of blue tinsel (despite that Chicago's colour scheme is red with black). The cast of Les Misérables wanders out from three screens, standing there looking awkward in their tuxedos and gowns while trying to convey Emotion without any context for the songs they are singing. Hathaway looked torn: should she try to recreate the harrowing performance from the film, or just politely sing the main hook?

Transitions and introductions that make no sense. What did Ted and talking about orgies have anything to do with Sound Mixing or Sound Editing? Why did only some of the cast of The Avengers bicker and cut eachother off when presenting Cinematography? Why give two of the Original Song nominees big performances beforehand, then show small montages of two, and then have Norah Jones sing the final nominee? Consistency, producers! Consistency!

The sound mixing. Oh, dear Lord. Vocalists were buried in the sound mix, swamped by the orchestra (which was down the road for some reason).

Insert shots that made no sense. This is something that is a perennial problem with the Oscar telecast, and I think it may be Mischer's fault. Too often the camera would cut to someone in the audience who either had nothing to do with what was being said or done at the moment. At other times, the context would make it unintentionally hilarious: Tarantino is rambling on, and we get a shot of Jamie Foxx looking at him like he's some sort of alien, a slight glare happening. Foxx then realizes he's on camera, and quickly changes his expression. These gaffs happened all night long.

The much-buzzed 007 homage wasn't nearly as electric as it could have been. An awesome performance of "Goldfinger" from septuagenarian Bassey had the song stuck in my head for the rest of the night --not a bad thing-- but otherwise we only got Halle Barry and a flashy montage. What, couldn't get the past Bonds to appear on stage, or couldn't have a medley of Bond songs?

OH. THE JAWS PLAY-OFF. Maybe the most disgusting, disrespectful, cruel prank of the night. It may be one of the most important moments of a person's life, something they have dreamed about for years. And you try to get a cheap laugh out of it? Gag.

What else fizzled out?

Oscars Reactions

Picture: Argo
Director: Russell Lee
Actress: Lawrence
Actor: Day-Lewis
Supp. Actress: Hathaway
Supp. Actor: DeNiro Waltz
Adapted Screenplay: Argo
Original Screenplay: Zero Dark Thirty Django Unchained
Cinematography: Life of Pi
Editing: Argo
Production Design: Anna Karenina Lincoln
Costume Design: Anna Karenina
Makeup & Hairstyling: The Hobbit Les Misérables
Original Score: Life of Pi
Original Song: Skyfall
Sound Mixing: Les Misérables
Sound Editing: Zero Dark Thirty and Skyfall
Visual Effects: Life of Pi
Foreign: Amour
Animated Feature: Wreck-It Ralph Brave
Animated Short: Paperman
Documentary Feature: Searching for Sugar Man
Documentary Short: Open Heart Inocente
Live Action Short: Curfew

17/24

Not great, but I think okay for such a wide open year. None of the winners really surprised me, save for that amazing tie and Lincoln for production design. Looking throughout the winners, they all make sense, and are all things I considered possible.

My problem is that I try to predict the surprises -- which of course, never goes too well. I warned people that my prediction for Russell was a silly one, and that Lee was the most probable winner. Of course, Lee wins. Duh! I sprung for Boal's script for Zero Dark Thirty, but as soon as Waltz won for supporting actor (something that did come as a surprise, admittedly) and heard all that applause every time the film was mentioned, I knew Tarantino would win. I think I put too much emphasis on his snub a few years ago over Basterds. Alas.
Brave's win and Les Misérables for makeup were ones that I suspected, but brushed off. I'm still surprised that The Hobbit missed out on makeup. Really, Academy? Boo-urns.

And so you have it. Maybe I won another Princess gold pass! But I doubt it.

Oscar Nomination Reaction: Snub-O-Rama

WOW. What else can I say that others haven't been? Major snubs all around, and a jolly good morning.

82/107

BEST PICTURE
1. Argo
2. Lincoln
3. Zero Dark Thirty
4. Les Misérables
5. Silver Linings Playbook
6. Life of Pi
7. Django Unchained
8. Amour
9. Beasts of the Southern Wild
9/9

DIRECTOR
The most bizarre lineup since... well, any ideas? DGA only matched up 2/5 this year, and there were audible gasps from the press when they realized who was missing: Affleck, Bigelow and Hooper.
3. Steven Spielberg, Lincoln (DGA, Globes, CC, Chicago)
4. Ang Lee, Life of Pi (DGA, Globes, BAFTA, CC)
6. Michael Haneke, Amour (BAFTA, NFSC Winner)
8. David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook (CC)
11. Benh Zeitlin, Beasts of the Southern Wild (Chicago)
2/5

ACTRESS
1. Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook (LAFC, SAG, Globes, BAFTA, CC, NSFC, Chicago)
2. Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty (NBR, SAG, Globes, BAFTA, CC, NSFC, Chicago)
3. Emmanuelle Riva, Amour (LAFC, BAFTA, CC, NFSC Winner, Chicago, Boston)
5. Naomi Watts, The Impossible (SAG, Globes, CC, Chicago)
7. Quvenzhané Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild (CC, Chicago)
4/5

ACTOR
The Hawkes miss is a bit surprising, but I must admit that I felt it in my gut coming. I was also expecting Hunt to miss, too, but she made it in.
1. Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln (NYFCC, Globes, SAG, BAFTA, CC, NFSC Winner, Chicago, Boston)
2. Hugh Jackman, Les Misérables (Globes, SAG, BAFTA, CC)
3. Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook (NBR, Globes, SAG, BAFTA, CC) +1
5. Joaquin Phoenix, The Master (LAFC, Globes, BAFTA, CC, NSFC, Chicago)
6. Denzel Washington, Flight (Globes, SAG, CC, Chicago)
4/5

SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Jacki Weaver is the surprise here, and makes Silver Linings Playbook the first movie since Reds to be nominated in all four acting categories. A sign of general support for the film?
1. Anne Hathaway, Les Misérables (SAG, Globes, BAFTA, CC, NSFC, Chicago)
2. Sally Field, Lincoln (SAG, NYFCC, Globes, BAFTA, CC, NSFC, Chicago, Boston)
3. Helen Hunt, The Sessions (SAG, Globes, BAFTA, CC, Chicago)
5. Amy Adams, The Master (LAFC, Globes, BAFTA, CC, NSFC Winner, Chicago)
11. Jacki Weaver, Silver Linings Playbook
4/5

SUPPORTING ACTOR
1. Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master (SAG, Globes, CC, NSFC, Chicago)
2. Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln (SAG, Globes, CC, NSFC, Chicago)
3. Alan Arkin, Argo (SAG, Globes, CC)
5. Robert DeNiro, Silver Linings Playbook (SAG, CC)
6. Christoph Waltz, Django Unchained (Globes, Boston)
4/5

WRITING, ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
They really didn't like The Master, eh?
1. Mark Boal, Zero Dark Thirty (Globes, WGA, BAFTA, CC, Chicago)
3. Quentin Tarantino, Django Unchained (Globes, BAFTA, CC, Chicago)
4. Wes Anderson & Roman Coppola, Moonrise Kingdom (WGA, BAFTA, CC, Chicago, Boston)
5. Michael Haneke, Amour (BAFTA)
7. John Gatins, Flight (WGA, CC)
4/5

WRITING, ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
1. Tony Kushner, Lincoln (NYFCC, Globes, WGA, BAFTA, CC, NSFC Winner, Chicago, Boston)
2. David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook (Globes, WGA, BAFTA, CC, NSFC, Chicago)
3. Chris Terrio, Argo (LAFC, Globes, WGA, BAFTA, CC, Chicago)
4. David Magee, Life of Pi (WGA, BAFTA, CC)
6. Benh Zeitlin & Lucy Alibar, Beasts of the Southern Wild (BAFTA)
4/5

CINEMATOGRAPHY
1. Roger Deakins, Skyfall (ASC, BAFTA, LAFC, CC, NSFC, Chicago)
2. Cloudio Miranda, Life of Pi (ASC, BAFTA, CC, Chicago, Boston)
3. Janusz Kaminski, Lincoln (ASC, BAFTA, CC, Chicago)
5. Seamus McGarvey, Anna Karenina (ASC, BAFTA)
8. Robert Richardson, Django Unchained
4/5

FILM EDITING
1. William Goldenberg & Dylan Tichenor, Zero Dark Thirty (LAFC, BAFTA, CC, Chicago, Boston)
2. William Goldenberg, Argo (BAFTA, CC, Chicago, Boston)
3. Tim Squyers, Life of Pi (BAFTA, CC)
5. Michael Kahn, Lincoln (CC)
7. Jay Cassidy, Silver Linings Playbook
4/5


PRODUCTION DESIGN
1. Anna Karenina (AGA Period, BAFTA, CC, Chicago)
2. Lincoln (AGA Period, BAFTA, CC, Chicago)
3. Les Misérables (AGA Period, BAFTA, CC, Chicago)
4. Life of Pi (AGA Fantasy, BAFTA, CC)
7. The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey (AGA Fantasy, CC)
4/5

COSTUME DESIGN
Guess I shouldn't have underestimated Atwood.
1. Anna Karenina (BAFTA, CC)
2. Les Misérables (BAFTA, CC)
3. Lincoln (BAFTA, CC)
10. Snow White and the Huntsman (BAFTA)
11. Mirror Mirror
3/5

MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
1. The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey (CC, BAFTA)
3. Les Misérables (CC, BAFTA)
5. Hitchcock (BAFTA)
2/3

ORIGINAL SCORE
1. Dario Marianelli, Anna Karenina (Globes, BAFTA)
2. Mychael Danna, Life of Pi (Globes, BAFTA, CC)
3. John Williams, Lincoln (Globes, BAFTA, CC)
4. Thomas Newman, Skyfall (BAFTA)
5. Alexandre Desplat, Argo (Globes, BAFTA, CC, Chicago)
5/5
I got perfect here? Wow! Sweet!

ORIGINAL SONG
1. "Skyfall" from Skyfall
2. "Suddenly" from Les Misérables
From Life of Pi: "Pi's Lullaby"
3/5
Not quite sure how to do my math here, as I only numbered two of them -- but honestly? If I did, Life of Pi's lullaby would have been by number 3. Honestly. Really! So I'm giving myself 3/5. Ha!

SOUND EDITING
1. Skyfall
3. Django Unchained
4. Zero Dark Thirty
7. Life of Pi -1
Other Possibilities: Argo
3/5

SOUND MIXING
1. Les Misérables (CAS, BAFTA)
2. Skyfall (CAS, BAFTA)
5. Lincoln (CAS) +3
7. Life of Pi (BAFTA) +3
NEW: Argo
3/5
Life of Pi showed its muscle by sneaking into both categories. But why oh why didn't more of us predict Argo in these categories? Best Picture frontrunner, action film...? Come on, guys. It's simple math.

VISUAL EFFECTS
1. Life of Pi (VES, BAFTA, CC)
2. The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey (VES, BAFTA, CC)
3. The Avengers (VES, BAFTA, CC)
4. Prometheus (VES, BAFTA)
10. Snow White and the Huntsman
4/5
Definitely didn't expect Snow White to do so well today.

ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
1. Brave (Globes, PGA, BAFTA, Chicago)
2. Wreck-It Ralph (Globes, PGA, CC, Chicago)
3. Frankenweenie (Globes, PGA, BAFTA, CC, Chicago, Boston)
4. ParaNorman (PGA, CC, BAFTA, Chicago, Boston)
8. The Pirates! Band of Misfits
4/5
The appearance of The Pirates! pleasantly surprised me, but certainly didn't shock: this branch loves Aardman Animations.

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
1. Searching for Sugar Man (BAFTA, CC, NSFC, Chicago)
2. How to Survive a Plague (Boston)
3. The Gatekeepers (LAFCA, NSFC Winner)
5. 5 Broken Cameras
13. The Invisible War (Chicago)
4/5
Quite pleased with my performance here, considering how many contenders were closely duking it out.

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
2. Amour, Austria (Globes, NYFCC, LAFC Winner, BAFTA Chicago, Boston)
3. A Royal Affair, Denmark (Globes)
4. War Witch, Canada
5. Kon-Tiki, Norway
7. No, Chile

4/5
The Intouchables snub is quite significant, as the supposed frontrunner and Weinstein workhorse. Some were even guessing 'surprise' Best Picture and Screenplay nominations. Oops! I correctly predicted both War Witch and Kon-Tiki getting in.

Final Oscar Nomination Predictions

BEST PICTURE
1. Argo (Globes, BAFTA, DGA, SAG, PGA, WGA, NBR, AFI, NSFC Winner, Chicago)
2. Lincoln (Globes, BAFTA, DGA, SAG, PGA, WGA, NBR, AFI, Chicago)
3. Zero Dark Thirty (Globes, BAFTA, DGA, PGA, NYFCC, NBR Winner, AFI, NSFC, Chicago, Boston)
4. Les Misérables (Globes, BAFTA, DGA, SAG, PGA, NBR, AFI)
5. Silver Linings Playbook (Globes, SAG, PGA, NBR, AFI, TIFF)
6. Life of Pi (Globes, BAFTA, DGA, PGA, WGA, AFI)
7. Django Unchained (Globes, PGA, AFI)
8. Amour (LAFC, Palme d'Or, variety of "Best Foreign Language")
9. Beasts of the Southern Wild (PGA, NBR, AFI, Chicago, Camera d'Or)
10. Skyfall (PGA)
11. Moonrise Kingdom (Globes, PGA, AFI)
12. The Master (Globes, NSFC, Chicago)
13. The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel (Globes, SAG)
14. The Impossible
15. The Intouchables

Other Contenders: Anna Karenina, The Dark Knight Rises, Flight, The Sessions, The Avengers, The Dark Knight Rises, The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey, Rust and Bone, Holy Motors, Take this Waltz, Hitchcock

DIRECTOR
1. Ben Affleck, Argo (DGA, Globes, BAFTA, CC, Chicago)
2. Kathryn Bigelow, Zero Dark Thirty (DGA, Globes, BAFTA, NYFCC, NBR, NFSC, Globes, Chicago, Boston)
3. Steven Spielberg, Lincoln (DGA, Globes, CC, Chicago)
4. Ang Lee, Life of Pi (DGA, Globes, BAFTA, CC)
5. Tom Hooper, Les Misérables (DGA, CC)
6. Michael Haneke, Amour (BAFTA, NFSC Winner)
7. Quentin Tarantino, Django Unchained (Globes, BAFTA)
8. David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook (CC)
9. Paul Thomas Anderson, The Master (LAFCA, NFSC, Chicago, Boston)
10. Wes Anderson, Moonrise Kingdom
11. Benh Zeitlin, Beasts of the Southern Wild (Chicago)
12. Sam Mendes, Skyfall
13. Robert Zemeckis, Flight

Other Contenders: John Madden (The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel), J.A. Boyana (The Impossible), Christopher Nolan (The Dark Knight Rises), Joe Wright (Anna Karenina), Ben Lewin (The Sessions), Peter Jackson (The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey), Sarah Polley (Take this Waltz)

ACTRESS
1. Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook (LAFC, SAG, Globes, BAFTA, CC, NSFC, Chicago)
2. Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty (NBR, SAG, Globes, BAFTA, CC, NSFC, Chicago)
3. Emmanuelle Riva, Amour (LAFC, BAFTA, CC, NFSC Winner, Chicago, Boston)
4. Marion Cotillard, Rust and Bone (SAG, Globes, BAFTA, CC)
5. Naomi Watts, The Impossible (SAG, Globes, CC, Chicago)
6. Helen Mirren, Hitchcock (SAG, BAFTA)
7. Quvenzhané Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild (CC, Chicago)
8. Rachel Weisz, The Deep Blue Sea (NYFCC, Globes)
9. Maggie Smith, Quartet (Globes)
10. Linda Cardellini, Return
11. Keira Knightley, Anna Karenina
12. Judi Dench, The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel (Globes)
13. Michelle Williams, Take this Waltz

ACTOR
1. Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln (NYFCC, Globes, SAG, BAFTA, CC, NFSC Winner, Chicago, Boston)
2. Hugh Jackman, Les Misérables (Globes, SAG, BAFTA, CC)
3. Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook (NBR, Globes, SAG, BAFTA, CC) +1
4. John Hawkes, The Sessions (Globes, SAG, CC, Chicago) -1
5. Joaquin Phoenix, The Master (LAFC, Globes, BAFTA, CC, NSFC, Chicago)
6. Denzel Washington, Flight (Globes, SAG, CC, Chicago)
7. Jean-Louis Trintignant, Amour
8. Anthony Hopkins, Hitchcock
9. Richard Gere, Arbitrage (Globes)
10. Ben Affleck, Argo (BAFTA) *New*
11. Denis Lavant, Holy Motors (NSFC, Chicago, Boston) -1

Other Contenders: Jack Black (Bernie), Jamie Foxx (Django Unchained), Bill Murray (Hyde Park on Hudson), Omar Sy (The Intouchables), Suraj Sharma (Life of Pi), Jake Gyllenhaal (End of Watch)


SUPPORTING ACTRESS
1. Anne Hathaway, Les Misérables (SAG, Globes, BAFTA, CC, NSFC, Chicago)
2. Sally Field, Lincoln (SAG, NYFCC, Globes, BAFTA, CC, NSFC, Chicago, Boston)
3. Helen Hunt, The Sessions (SAG, Globes, BAFTA, CC, Chicago) +1
4. Nicole Kidman, The Paperboy (SAG, Globes) -1
5. Amy Adams, The Master (LAFC, Globes, BAFTA, CC, NSFC Winner, Chicago)
6. Maggie Smith, The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel (SAG, Globes)
7. Ann Dowd, Compliance (NBR, CC)
8. Judi Dench, Skyfall (BAFTA, Chicago)
9. Samantha Barks, Les Misérables
10. Emma Watson, The Perks of Being a Wallflower (Boston)
11. Jacki Weaver, Silver Linings Playbook


SUPPORTING ACTOR
1. Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master (SAG, Globes, CC, NSFC, Chicago)
2. Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln (SAG, Globes, CC, NSFC, Chicago)
3. Alan Arkin, Argo (SAG, Globes, CC)
4. Javier Bardem, Skyfall (SAG, BAFTA, CC)
5. Robert DeNiro, Silver Linings Playbook (SAG, CC)
6. Christoph Waltz, Django Unchained (Globes, Boston)
7. Leonardo DiCaprio, Django Unchained (NBR, Globes, Chicago)
8. Matthew McConaughey, Magic Mike (NYFCC, CC, NSFC Winner)
9. Samuel L. Jackson, Django Unchained
10. Dwight Henry, Beasts of the Southern Wild (LAFC, Chicago
11. Ezra Miller, The Perks of Being a Wallflower (Boston)
12. Jason Clarke, Zero Dark Thirty (Chicago
13. Michael Pena, End of Watch
14. Eddie Redmayne, Les Misérables
15. Tom Wilkinson, The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel

Other Possibilities: Jude Law, Anna Karenina; William H. Macy, The Sessions



WRITING, ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
1. Mark Boal, Zero Dark Thirty (Globes, WGA, BAFTA, CC, Chicago)
2. Paul Thomas Anderson, The Master (WGA, BAFTA, CC, NSFC, Chicago)
3. Quentin Tarantino, Django Unchained (Globes, BAFTA, CC, Chicago)
4. Wes Anderson & Roman Coppola, Moonrise Kingdom (WGA, BAFTA, CC, Chicago, Boston)
5. Michael Haneke, Amour (BAFTA)
6. Rian Johnson, Looper (NBR, WGA, CC, Chicago
7. John Gatins, Flight (WGA, CC)
8. Ava DuVernay, Middle of Nowhere
9. The Intouchables
10. Nicholas Jarecki, Arbitrage


WRITING, ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
1. Tony Kushner, Lincoln (NYFCC, Globes, WGA, BAFTA, CC, NSFC Winner, Chicago, Boston)
2. David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook (Globes, WGA, BAFTA, CC, NSFC, Chicago)
3. Chris Terrio, Argo (LAFC, Globes, WGA, BAFTA, CC, Chicago)
4. David Magee, Life of Pi (WGA, BAFTA, CC)
5. Stephen Chbosky, The Perks of Being a Wallflower (WGA, CC)
6. Benh Zeitlin & Lucy Alibar, Beasts of the Southern Wild (BAFTA)
7. Ben Lewin, The Sessions
8. John Logan, Neal Purvin & Robert Wade, Skyfall
9. Tom Stoppard, Anna Karenina
10. William Nicholson, Les Misérables
11. Richard Linklater & Skip Hollandsworth, Bernie
12. Ol Parker, The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel

Quartet, Hitchcock, This is 40, The Dark Knight Rises, The Avengers, The Hunger Games, Cloud Atlas, Rust and Bone, The Deep Blue Sea, The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey


CINEMATOGRAPHY
The ASC and BAFTA nominees are the same -- an interesting (and telling?) fact. So much for my confidence in Zero Dark Thirty, which only a week ago was sitting happily on top of my list.
1. Roger Deakins, Skyfall (ASC, BAFTA, LAFC, CC, NSFC, Chicago)
2. Cloudio Miranda, Life of Pi (ASC, BAFTA, CC, Chicago, Boston)
3. Janusz Kaminski, Lincoln (ASC, BAFTA, CC, Chicago) +1
4. Danny Cohen, Les Misérables (ASC, BAFTA, CC) +1
5. Seamus McGarvey, Anna Karenina (ASC, BAFTA) + 4
6. Mihai Malalmare Jr., The Master (CC, NSFC Winner, Chicago, Boston) -3
7. Greig Fraser, Zero Dark Thirty (NYFCC, NSFC, Chicago) -1
8. Robert Richardson, Django Unchained -1
9. Rodrigo Prieto, Argo -1
10. Robert Yeoman, Moonrise Kingdom (Boston)

Other Contenders: Prometheus, Beasts of the Southern Wild, The Dark Knight Rises, Samsara, Cloud Atlas, The Impossible


FILM EDITING
1. William Goldenberg & Dylan Tichenor, Zero Dark Thirty (LAFC, BAFTA, CC, Chicago, Boston)
2. William Goldenberg, Argo (BAFTA, CC, Chicago, Boston)
3. Tim Squyers, Life of Pi (BAFTA, CC)
4. Fred Raskin, Django Unchained (BAFTA)
5. Michael Kahn, Lincoln (CC)
5. Melanie Oliver & Chris Dickens, Les Misérables (CC)
7. Jay Cassidy, Silver Linings Playbook
8. Leslie Jones & Peter McNulty, The Master (Chicago)
9. Stuart & Kate Baird, Skyfall (BAFTA, Chicago)
10. Leslie Jones & Peter Cloud Atlas (Chicago)
11. Melanie Ann Oliver, Anna Karenina
12. Crockett Doob & Alfonso Gonçalves, Beasts of the Southern Wild

Other Possibilities: The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey, Prometheus, Flight, The Avengers, The Amazing Spider-Man, The Dark Knight Rises, Moonrise Kingdom, Amour


PRODUCTION DESIGN
1. Anna Karenina (AGA Period, BAFTA, CC, Chicago)
2. Lincoln (AGA Period, BAFTA, CC, Chicago)
3. Les Misérables (AGA Period, BAFTA, CC, Chicago)
4. Life of Pi (AGA Fantasy, BAFTA, CC)
5. Django Unchained (AGA Period)
6. Prometheus (AGA Fantasy)
7. The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey (AGA Fantasy, CC)
8. The Master (LAFC, Chicago)
9. Skyfall (AGA Contemporary, BAFTA)
10. Cloud Atlas (AGA Fantasy)
11. Moonrise Kingdom (Chicago)
12. A Royal Affair
13. Argo (AGA Period)
14. The Impossible (AGA Contemporary)
15. The Dark Knight Rises


COSTUME DESIGN
1. Anna Karenina (BAFTA, CC)
2. Les Misérables (BAFTA, CC)
3. Lincoln (BAFTA, CC) +1
4. Django Unchained -1
5. A Royal Affair
6. Argo
7. The Master
8. Cloud Atlas (CC)
9. The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey (CC)
10. Snow White and the Huntsman (BAFTA) +2
11. Mirror Mirror +2
12. Hitchcock -2
13. Prometheus -2

Other Contenders: Moonrise Kingdom, The Hunger Games, Dark Shadows, The Avengers, Lawless


MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
1. The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey (CC, BAFTA)
2. Lincoln (CC, BAFTA)
3. Les Misérables (CC, BAFTA)
4. Men in Black 3
5. Hitchcock (BAFTA)
6. Looper
7. Snow White and the Huntsman


ORIGINAL SCORE
1. Dario Marianelli, Anna Karenina (Globes, BAFTA)
2. Mychael Danna, Life of Pi (Globes, BAFTA, CC)
3. John Williams, Lincoln (Globes, BAFTA, CC)
4. Thomas Newman, Skyfall (BAFTA)
5. Alexandre Desplat, Argo (Globes, BAFTA, CC, Chicago)
6. Jonny Greenwood, The Master (CC, Chicago
7. Reinhold Hell, Johnny Klimek &Tom Twyker, Cloud Atlas (Globes)
8. Dan Romer & Benh Zeitlin, Beasts of the Southern Wild (LAFC, Chicago)
9. Howard Shore, The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
10. Alexandre Desplat, Zero Dark Thirty (Chicago)
11. Alexandre Desplat, Moonrise Kingdom (Chicago)


ORIGINAL SONG
1. "Skyfall" from Skyfall
2. "Suddenly" from Les Misérables

From Django Unchained: "Ancora Qui", "Freedom", "Who Did That to You?"
From Brave: "Learn Me Right", "Touch the Sky"
From Joyful Noise: "From Here to the Moon and Back"
From Life of Pi: "Pi's Lullaby"
From Wreck-It Ralph: "When Can I See You Again?"
From Paul Williams Still Alive: "Still Alive"

SOUND EDITING
1. Skyfall
2. The Avengers
3. Django Unchained
4. Zero Dark Thirty
5. The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey +2
6. Prometheus -1
7. Life of Pi -1
8. Les Misérables
9. The Dark Knight Rises
10. Wreck-It Ralph
11. Brave
12. Flight
13. Looper
14. Cloud Atlas
15. The Bourne Legacy

Other Possibilities: The Impossible, Jack Reacher, John Carter, Battleship, Snow White and the Huntsman, The Amazing Spider-Man, Men in Black 3, The Hunger Games, The Grey, Frankenweenie, Paranorman, Rise of the Guardians, Argo

SOUND MIXING
1. Les Misérables (CAS, BAFTA)
2. Skyfall (CAS, BAFTA)
3. Zero Dark Thirty (CAS)
4. Django Unchained (BAFTA) +1
5. Lincoln (CAS) +3
6. The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey (CAS, BAFTA)
7. Life of Pi (BAFTA) +3
8. The Avengers -4
9. Prometheus -2
10. The Dark Knight Rises -1
11. Flight
12. Looper
13. Cloud Atlas
14. Brave (CAS)

Other Possiblities: The Impossible, Jack Reacher, John Carter, The Amazing Spider-Man, The Grey, Frankenweenie (CAS), Rise of the Guardians (CAS), The Hunger Games, Rock of Ages, The Bourne Legacy, Wreck-It Ralph (CAS), 


VISUAL EFFECTS
1. Life of Pi (VES, BAFTA, CC)
2. The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey (VES, BAFTA, CC)
3. The Avengers (VES, BAFTA, CC)
4. Prometheus (VES, BAFTA)
5. The Dark Knight Rises (CC, BAFTA) +2
6. Cloud Atlas (CC) -1
7. John Carter -1
8. The Amazing Spider-Man
9. Skyfall
10. Snow White and the Huntsman


ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
1. Brave (Globes, PGA, BAFTA, Chicago)
2. Wreck-It Ralph (Globes, PGA, CC, Chicago)
3. Frankenweenie (Globes, PGA, BAFTA, CC, Chicago, Boston)
4. ParaNorman (PGA, CC, BAFTA, Chicago, Boston)
5. Rise of the Guardians (PGA)
6. The Painting
7. The Rabbi's Cat
8. The Pirates! Band of Misfits
9. A Liar's Autobiography: The Untrue Story of Monty Python's Graham Chapman
10. From Up on Poppy Hill
11. Zarafa
12. Madagascar 3: Europe's Most Wanted (CC)
13. The Lorax
14. Hotel Transylvania (Globes)
15. Ice Age: Continental Drift

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
1. Searching for Sugar Man (BAFTA, CC, NSFC, Chicago)
2. How to Survive a Plague (Boston)
3. The Gatekeepers (LAFCA, NSFC Winner)
4. Mea Maxima Culpa: Silence in the House of God
5. 5 Broken Cameras
6. Bully (CC)
7. Ai Weiwei: Never Sorry
8. Chasing Ice
9. The Imposter
10. Detropia
11. The House I Live In
12. This is Not a Film (NSFC)
13. The Invisible War (Chicago)
14. The Waiting Room
15. Ethel


FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
1. The Intouchables, France (Globes, BAFTA, Chicago)
2. Amour, Austria (Globes, NYFCC, LAFC Winner, BAFTA Chicago, Boston)
3. A Royal Affair, Denmark (Globes)
4. War Witch, Canada
5. Kon-Tiki, Norway
6. The Deep, Iceland
7. No, Chile
8. Beyond the Hills, Romania
9. Sister, Switzerland