I'm actually playing it safe this year, which is somewhat unusual for me: I'm going with almost entirely consensus choices, except in one category, Adapted Screenplay. There I suspect that Barbie will be the 'surprise' winner. Otherwise? I'm not confident in any other bolder choices.
So, let's begin!
PICTURE
If you thought last year's Everything Everywhere All At Once was a front-runner, oh boy! Oppenheimer has this in the bag. I'm not even sure what could dethrone it at this point. Yes, Poor Things is amazing, but it will also be too weird for voters. The Holdovers was a potential upset like a month ago, but I feel that the film has declined in buzz from the beginning of the season. The film that I've heard people talk about a lot is actually Anatomy of a Fall: I think that it will do well on the ranked ballots - but well enough? No. Another film that may do well on the ranked ballot is American Fiction, but I also don't think it will be an upset.
1. Oppenheimer
2. Poor Things
3. The Holdovers
4. Anatomy of a Fall
5. Barbie
6. American Fiction
7. Killers of the Flower Moon
8. The Zone of Interest
9. Past Lives
10. Maestro
DIRECTING
Why bother writing something up when we all know my personal favourite (/s), Christoper Nolan, has been completely sweeping the season? Lanthimos I think has the best chance to put up a fight, and despite all the pundits placing her last, I think Triet could be the spoiler.
1. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer
2. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things
3. Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall
4. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon
5. Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest
ACTRESS
Now, we know that Hollywood loves a "narrative" when it comes to its awards. Lily Gladstone not only gave an amazing performance, but she will be the first Indigenous actor to win an Oscar -- that is, if Emma Stone's undeniably even more amazing performance pulls it off. This is one of the nail-biter awards of the night. Gladstone wasn't nominated for the BAFTA (a huge hurdle to overcome) yet won the SAG, but she also has a role that could have easily been placed in the supporting category instead of lead. I don't think that will be her undoing, and Stone already has an Oscar, but damn... that performance of Stone's is an all-timer.
1. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon
2. Emma Stone, Poor Things
3. Sandra Huller, Anatomy of a Fall
4. Annette Bening, Nyad
5. Carey Mulligan, Maestro
ACTOR
Cillian Murphy is so central to the success of Oppenheimer that I think it will be difficult for voters to award anyone else the Oscar. Giamatti had the edge only a month ago, but as I've said above, his film has lost some of the buzz.
1. Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer
2. Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers
3. Bradley Cooper, Maestro
4. Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction
5. Colman Domingo, Rustin
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Da'Vine Joy Randolph has been sweeping the season, and I think for good reason. It's a great performance in a well-loved film, and she has been a gracious winner throughout the season. I think that Blunt has a huge uphill fight to beat Randolph.
1. Da'Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers
2. Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer
3. America Ferrera, Barbie
4. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple
5. Jodie Foster, Nyad
SUPPORTING ACTOR
After like a decade plus of doing superhero fare, Downey broke free and showed us that yes, he can act. But I really want to see Gosling win here, I really do. He was the highlight of his film for me - but that was the problem, apparently, if you listened to Film Twitter. To have Barbie's only acting win be for a man is ~problematic~. I think that will be the undoing of him, unfortunately. But what a stacked category this year, I must say!
1. Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer
2. Ryan Gosling, Barbie
3. Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things
4. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon
5. Sterling K. Brown, American Fiction
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Some pundits are saying that this is American Fiction's to lose, and I'm not sure I agree. You have it competing here with two of the biggest movies of the year: one that is set to sweep the Oscars, and the other that has been praised for its screenplay and has a swell of good-cheer for it to win some awards after two high-profile apparent "snubs". They are Oppenheimer and Barbie, and I think of the two, it will be Barbie that will win this award. Oppenheimer strikes me as more of a directing and acting showcase than for its writing, while Barbie is a feat of taking things down the untraveled road: it's unexpected. I did not particularly care for this road, but I know many, many people did. And so, my first non-consensus choice is:
1. Greta Gerwig and Noah Baumbach, Barbie
2. Cord Jefferson, American Fiction
3. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer
4. Tony McNamara, Poor Things
5. Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
If the Oscars were a month earlier, this would be The Holdovers all the way. But there has been a swell of interest for the Cannes-winning Anatomy of a Fall, and most of it is around the performance of Huller, and the screenplay. I see on Twitter people discussing the film a lot, and I just think it has the edge right now (and most pundits agree!)
1. Justine Triet and Arthur Harari, Anatomy of a Fall
2. David Hemingson, The Holdovers
3. Celine Song, Past Lives
4. Samy Burch, May December
5. Bradley Cooper and Josh Singer, Maestro
CINEMATOGRAPHY
The sheer variety of the camerawork in Oppenheimer, as well as its scale and the narrative around how important it is to the film, surely will give it the edge here. I think that if there is competition, it's the bravura weirdness of Poor Things: but that's just it, isn't it? It's weird. Too weird for some. Killers seems to be another candidate, but I just don't think it has the "wow" factor that these other two films have. El Conde won't be as seen as the others, and well, Maestro has had a difficult time lately.
1. Oppenheimer
2. Poor Things
3. Killers of the Flower Moon
4. El Conde
5. Maestro
EDITING
Remember, kids: in this category, it's often "more editing" equals "best editing". The flashier the cuts, the more complex the overall story design, the more action sequences, the better the chance of winning. So the fact that the Best Picture front-runner pretty well has these things means that it will very likely pick this category up, easily.
1. Oppenheimer
2. Killers of the Flower Moon
3. Anatomy of a Fall
4. Poor Things
5. The Holdovers
PRODUCTION DESIGN
There is some very strong work this year in this category, but I think the general consensus is that it will go to the delightful Poor Things. Thank goodness, too, because I actually don't have it winning in any other category - and it's my favourite film of last year so far. However, Barbie is hot on its trail, because that was some spectacular work, too. (EDIT: And, in fact, Barbie leads on Gold Derby.)
1. Poor Things
2. Barbie
3. Oppenheimer
4. Killers of the Flower Moon
5. Napoleon
COSTUME DESIGN
Now, here's a race. It's a total toss-up for me: the dazzling plastic pop art of Barbie, or the dazzling poofy steampunk of Poor Things? I'll be switching between these two before Sunday night, I know, but at this point, I think it'll be Barbie for costumes, and Poor Things for production design. Or will it be the other way around? Ugh.
1. Barbie
2. Poor Things
3. Killers of the Flower Moon
4. Napoleon
5. Oppenheimer
MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
This is supposedly Maestro's to lose, but there has also been controversy surrounding the film's makeup decisions... but that didn't stop The Whale last year. Poor Things is the spoiler, and it certainly has a good chance.
1. Maestro
2. Poor Things
3. Society of the Snow
4. Oppenheimer
5. Golda
SOUND
This is clearly Oppenheimer's to lose, despite the general accusations regarding Nolan's sound mixing being sometimes incomprehensible. It seems that the consensus is that Oppenheimer isn't nearly as bad as some of his other films, and is actually quite well done. But is it as well done as The Zone of Interest? Heck no. That film is defined by its sound design: we never see any of the atrocities, but we definitely hear them throughout. I think that this is more of a close race than what is generally thought.
1. Oppenheimer
2. The Zone of Interest
3. Maestro
4. Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One
5. The Creator
ORIGINAL SCORE
Another category to be swept by Oppenheimer, and I can't think of another film that is putting up much of a fight here: I'm actually having a difficult time determining the ranked order. It will be a simple "check" on voters' ballots.
1. Ludwig Goransson, Oppenheimer
2. Jerskin Fendrix, Poor Things
3. Laura Karpman, American Fiction
4. Robbie Robertson, Killers of the Flower Moon
5. John Williams, Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny
ORIGINAL SONG
Now, which Barbie song will it be? "What Was I Made For?" has been the favourite all season, but there has been a groundswell behind "I'm Just Ken" recently. Lots of buzz around if Gosling will perform this at the ceremony. The other nominees are clearly just in for the ride.
1. What Was I Made For?, Barbie
2. I'm Just Ken, Barbie
3. Wahzhazhe (A Song for My People), Killers of the Flower Moon
4. The Fire Inside, Flamin' Hot
5. It Never Went Away, American Symphony
VISUAL EFFECTS
Now this is a heart-warming narrative: the team behind Godzilla Minus One has been everywhere and been a delight. They are a very small team, especially when compared to the hundreds of artists behind superhero fare, and I think there's enough goodwill to give them the Oscar. The Creator is the competition.
1. Godzilla Minus One
2. The Creator
3. Napoleon
4. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 3
5. Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One
ANIMATED FEATURE
This may be our last chance to award Miyazaki, and it's for a film that has made quite a wave. Spider-Man will have another chance.
1. The Boy and the Heron
2. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-verse
3. Robot Dreams
4. Elemental
5. Nimona
DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
This one seems to be an obvious winner to me, as it has quality and the good politics that the Academy loves to pat its back over. I'm not sure if I've seen anyone predict another winner here.
1. 20 Days in Mariupol
2. Four Daughters
3. Bobi Wine: The People's President
4. The Eternal Memory
5. To Kill a Tiger
INTERNATIONAL FEATURE
Another very obvious winner. As I said last year, no film that has been nominated for Best Picture has lost here.
1. The Zone of Interest (United Kingdom)
2. Society of the Snow (Spain)
3. Perfect Days (Japan)
4. The Teachers' Lounge (Germany)
5. Io Capitano (Italy)
ANIMATED SHORT
Letter to a Pig has been the clear favourite ever since the nominations were announced. War is Over! is considered to be the competition, but there's also the well-liked Ninety-Five Senses. Normally, these are very difficult categories to predict, but this year this one seems to be wrapped up.
1. Letter to a Pig
2. War is Over! Inspired By the Music of John & Yoko
3. Ninety-Five Senses
4. Our Uniform
5. Pachyderme
DOCUMENTARY SHORT
On the other hand, pundits are all over the place with this category. I haven't seen them and this sometimes makes it difficult to predict, especially when the experts don't know, either. The ABCs of Book Banning is the topical choice, but there's been some concerns about its accuracy (I've heard that the children were coached in their answers). I wouldn't be surprised if this goes to The Last Repair Shop, or Nai Nai and Wai Po. It seems that the other two nominees are also-rans.
1. The ABCs of Book Banning
2. The Last Repair Shop
3. Nai Nai and Wai Po
4. The Barber of Little Rock
5. Island in Between
LIVE ACTION SHORT
And here was have another very easy choice: it must be Wes Anderson. The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar is easily accessible on Netflix, is delightful, and it would be a chance to give an Oscar to Anderson.
1. The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar
2. Red White and Blue
3. The After
4. Invincible
4. Knight of Fortune
TALLY
Oppenheimer - 8 (Picture, Director, Lead Actor, Supp. Actor, Cinematography, Editing, Sound, Original Score)
Barbie - 3 (Adapted Screenplay, Costumes, Original Song)
