What a year! After so many being utterly predictable in the major categories, we have a year that no one's quite sure who will take the top prize. And what a thrill that is for us Oscar watchers. I don't have much commentary this year, but it's interesting that the technical prizes are a battleground between The Revenant and Mad Max: Fury Road.
So I'm calling 6 for The Revenant, 3 for Mad Max: Fury Road and 2 for The Big Short.
BEST PICTURE
Amongst the primary precursors, we have a split. The Director's Guild gave it to Innaritu, the Producer's Guild to The Big Short, and the Screen Actor's Guild to Spotlight. The GGs gave it to Revenant, as did the BAFTAs. So I'm going with --and yes, that makes him the only director to direct two Best Pictures in a row--...
Will Win: The Revenant
Could Win: The Big Short
Wouldn't Be Surprised: Spotlight
DIRECTING
Will Win: Alejandro G. Innaritu, The Revenant
Could Win: George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road
ACTRESS
Will Win: Brie Larson, Room
Could Win: Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn
ACTOR
Will Win: Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
Dark Horse: Bryan Cranston, Trumbo
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Will Win: Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
Could Win: Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs
SUPPORTING ACTOR
Will Win: Sylvester Stallone, Creed
Could Win: Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Will Win: Spotlight
Dark Horse: Inside Out
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Will Win: The Big Short
Dark Horse: Room?
EDITING
Will Win: The Big Short
Could Win: Mad Max: Fury Road
CINEMATOGRAPHY
Will Win: The Revenant
Could Win: Mad Max: Fury Road
PRODUCTION DESIGN
Will Win: Mad Max: Fury Road
Could Win: The Revenant
COSTUME DESIGN
Will Win: Mad Max: Fury Road
Could Win: Cinderella
MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
Will Win: Mad Max: Fury Road
Could Win: The Revenant
SOUND MIXING
Will Win: The Revenant
Could Win: Mad Max: Fury Road
SOUND EDITING
Will Win: The Revenant
Could Win: Mad Max: Fury Road
ORIGINAL SCORE
Will Win: The Hateful Eight
Could Win: Carol
ORIGINAL SONG
Will Win: "Til It Happens to You", The Hunting Ground
Could Win: "Writing's on the Wall", Spectre
VISUAL EFFECTS
Will Win: Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Could Win: Mad Max: Fury Road
ANIMATED FEATURE
Will Win: Inside Out
Could Win: Anomalisa
DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Will Win: Amy
Could Win: What Happened, Miss Simone?
FOREIGN LANGUAGE FEATURE
Will Win: Son of Saul
Could Win: Mustang
ANIMATED SHORT
Will Win: Sanjay's Super Team
Could Win: Bear Story
LIVE ACTION SHORT
Will Win: Shok
Could Win: Stutterer
DOCUMENTARY SHORT
Will Win: A Girl in the River: The Price of Forgiveness
Could Win: Claude Lanzmann: Spectres of the Shoah
But Really, Who Knows?: Body Team 12
