Oscar Predictions 2018

This year has been a strange one, in that there is still not a major frontrunner that has all the stats behind it. The film that we're mostly predicting, Three Billboards, is lacking a director nomination. The Shape of Water would then be the one to go for -- but it missed the all-important SAG nomination for ensemble. This seems to be a very important stat to note, as the Academy is made mostly of actors. We have to think about which films will be eliminated first, and then which films will be ranked #2 and #3 on their ballots. It seems that Three Billboards may be the consensus choice, rather than The Shape of Water, as it won the Globe, the SAG, and now the BAFTA, another organization that is dominated by the actors' branch. Then what about Get Out or Lady Bird? I think these two films are the biggest threats to make a 'surprise' win, as they also seem to be both consensus choices and passion-vote grabbers... but of the two, I think it would be the generally pleasant Lady Bird, rather than the somewhat divisive Get Out (i.e. there are more people who dislike Get Out than Lady Bird, even if it's still a small number, as well as the 'genre' hurdle for a horror film to win BP).

So how does this add up? By making a ranked list. It looks like the battle is between Three Billboards and Shape, with Lady Bird and Get Out as possible spoilers. (Although -- I wouldn't rule out a shocker of a win for the likely Adapted Screenplay winner Call Me By Your Name.)

Best Picture
1. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
2. The Shape of Water
3. Lady Bird
4. Get Out
5. Call Me By Your Name
6. Dunkirk
7. Phantom Thread
8. Darkest Hour
9. The Post

Director
A slam dunk for del Toro, making all of the Three Amigos to be Oscar winners for Directing. Olé!
Will Win: Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water
Could Win, I Guess?: Jordan Peele, Get Out

Actress
Also a slam dunk for McDormand.
Will Win: Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Could Win: Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird

Actor
Is Oldman as strong as we think he is? Some are suspecting a Chalamet spoiler, given the greater acclaim for his film.
Will Win: Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
Could Win: Timothée Chalamet, Call Me By Your Name

Supporting Actress
Early in the season, it looked like a close battle between Metcalf and Janey, but Janey has pulled ahead.
Will Win: Allison Janey, I, Tonya
Could Win: Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird

Supporting Actor
Also a close battle early in the season, but it looks like Rockwell has this in the bag.
Will Win: Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Could Win: Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project

Original Screenplay
This will reveal a lot early in the night. If Three Billboards wins here, as I suspect it will, I don't think a Get Out or Lady Bird surprise is brewing. But if either of these films win, well... we know how the last few Oscars have played out. (Screenplay Win = Best Picture Win for Spotlight, Moonlight and Birdman) For the record, Get Out has been the consensus choice by pundits for the win here.
Will Win: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Could Win: Get Out
Maybe?: Lady Bird

Adapted Screenplay
Ivory has returned, and he will be rewarded.
Will Win: Call Me By Your Name
Far Behind: Mudbound

Editing
Three technical categories are a battle between these two films, but consensus says Dunkirk will reign supreme.
Will Win: Dunkirk
Could Win: Baby Driver

Cinematography
As I said before, Deakins looks to FINALY win... if a del Toro film doesn't win again.
Will Win: Blade Runner 2049
Could Win: The Shape of Water

Production Design
I'm having difficulties with this one, but Shape is probably winning here, and perhaps deservingly so.
Will Win: The Shape of Water
Could Win: Blade Runner 2049

Costume Design
It's a film about clothing. It's probably getting the Oscar for costume design.
Will Win: Phantom Thread
Could Win: Beauty and the Beast

Makeup and Hairstyling
Will Win: Darkest Hour
Far Behind: Wonder

Original Score
I felt that Shape's score was a weakness of the film, as it was just a bit overbearing at times... but evidently, people are disagreeing with me. But wouldn't a Johnny Greenwood win be awesome?
Will Win: The Shape of Water
Could Win: Phantom Thread

Original Song
Will Win: "Remember Me", Coco
Could Win: "The Mystery of Love", Call Me By Your Name

Sound Mixing
Will Win: Dunkirk
Could Win: Baby Driver

Sound Editing
Will Win: Dunkirk
Could Win: Baby Driver

Visual Effects
Surprisingly, the Planet of the Apes series hasn't won yet in this category. Maybe that's a sign it'll lose again? But for what? Blade Runner 2049 may be the spoiler.
Will Win: War for the Planet of the Apes
Could Win: Blade Runner 2049

Animated Feature
Slam dunk, again.
Will Win: Coco
Could Win, I Guess?: Loving Vincent

Documentary Feature
In which cinema treasure Agnès Varda will actually win an Oscar.
Will Win: Faces Places
Could Win: Icarus

Foreign Language Feature
The two films that are probably the most acclaimed --Palme d'Or winner The Square and Loveless-- are also the chilliest of the bunch. Hence, Chile sneaks in and takes the win for its audience pleaser.
Will Win: A Fantastic Woman
Could Win: The Square

Live Action Short
Will Win: DeKalb Elementary
Could Win: The Silent Child

Documentary Short
Will Win: Edith+Eddie
Could Win: Heaven is a Traffic Jam on the 405

Animated Short
And another slam dunk win for Dear Basketball, making Kobe Bryant an Oscar winner. Who woulda thunk it?
Will Win: Dear Basketball
Could Win: Lou
Then Again, What Do We Know?: Garden Party

Oscar Nominations Reaction 2018

My score this year is 84/107, which is pretty good, if I may say so myself. Then again, there were few surprises this year. The Shape of Water leads with 13 nominations, followed by Dunkirk with 8. Darkest Hour and Phantom Thread both did better than expected, racking up 6 nominations each. Phantom Thread surprised in Picture and Director, as well as a minor surprise in Supporting Actress; definitely didn't see that directing nom coming. Who missed? McDonagh in Director, James Franco in Lead Actor, Armie Hammer and Hong Chau in the supporting categories, In the Fade, Jane and City of Ghosts.

Now on to Phase 2!

Best Picture
1. The Shape of Water
2. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
3. Lady Bird
4. Get Out
5. Dunkirk
6. Call Me by Your Name
7. The Post
12. Darkest Hour
14. Phantom Thread

7/9

Director
1. Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water
2. Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird
4. Jordan Peele, Get Out
5. Christoper Nolan, Dunkirk
-. Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread

4/5

Actress
1. Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
2. Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water
3. Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird
4. Margot Robbie, I, Tonya
5. Meryl Streep, The Post

5/5

Actor
1. Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
2. Timothée Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name
3. Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out
4. Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread
7. Denzel Washington, Roman Israel, Esq.

4/5

Supporting Actress
1. Alison Janney, I, Tonya
2. Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird
3. Mary J. Blige, Mudbound
5. Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water
8. Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread

4/5

Supporting Actor
1. Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
2. Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
3. Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
5. Christopher Plummer, All the Money in the World
6. Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water

4/5

Adapted Screenplay
1. Call Me by Your Name
2. The Disaster Artist
3. Molly's Game
4. Mudbound
6. Logan

4/5

Original Screenplay
1. Get Out
2. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
3. Lady Bird
4. The Shape of Water
6. The Big Sick

4/5

Cinematography
1. Blade Runner 2049
2. The Shape of Water
3. Dunkirk
4. Mudbound
5. Darkest Hour

5/5

Editing
1. Dunkirk
2. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
3. Baby Driver
4. The Shape of Water
6. I, Tonya

4/5

Production Design
1. The Shape of Water
2. Blade Runner 2049
3. Beauty and the Beast
5. Darkest Hour
6. Dunkirk

4/5

Costume Design
1. Phantom Thread
2. Beauty and the Beast
3. The Shape of Water
7. Darkest Hour
-. Victoria & Abdul

3/5

Hairstyling and Makeup
1. Darkest Hour
2. Wonder
6. Victoria & Abdul

2/3

Original Score
1. The Shape of Water
2. Dunkirk
4. Phantom Thread
5. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
-. Star Wars: The Last Jedi

4/5

Original Song
1. "Remember Me", Coco
3. "This is Me", The Greatest Showman
4. "Mystery of Love", Call Me by Your Name
5. "Mighty River", Mudbound
6. "Stand Up for Something", Marshall

4/5

Sound Mixing
1. Dunkirk
2. The Shape of Water
3. Blade Runner 2049
4. Baby Driver
5. Star Wars: The Last Jedi

5/5

Sound Editing
1. Dunkirk
2. The Shape of Water
3. Blade Runner 2049
4. Baby Driver
5. Star Wars: The Last Jedi

5/5

Visual Effects
1. War for the Planet of the Apes
2. Blade Runner 2049
3. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
7. Kong: Skull Island
9. Guardians of the Galaxy, vol. 2

3/5

Foreign Language
2. A Fantastic Woman
3. Loveless
4. The Insult
5. The Square
8. On Body and Soul

4/5

Animated Feature
1. Coco
2. The Breadwinner
3. Loving Vincent
6. The Boss Baby
-. Ferdinand

3/5

Documentary Feature
3. Faces Places
5. Icarus
6. Strong Island
8. Last Men in Aleppo
-. Abacus: Small Enough to Jail

2/5

84/107

SCOREBOARD
The Shape of Water - 13
Dunkirk - 8
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri - 7
Darkest Hour - 6
Phantom Thread - 6
Blade Runner 2049 - 5
Lady Bird - 5
Mudbound - 4
Call Me by Your Name - 4
Get Out - 4
Star Wars: The Last Jedi - 4
Baby Driver - 3
I, Tonya - 3
The Post - 2
Beauty and the Beast - 2
Coco - 2
Victoria and Abdul - 2
The Disaster Artist - 1
The Florida Project - 1
Wonder - 1

Oscar Nominations Predictions 2018

Best Picture
So what's it gonna be? In a wildly unpredictable year for frontrunners, we have also settled down on around a dozen films that seem to be 'in the running' for multiple awards. I don't think we're going to get ten nominees this year, but I'm very confident about this top 6.

1. The Shape of Water
2. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
3. Lady Bird
4. Get Out
5. Dunkirk
6. Call Me by Your Name
7. The Post
8. The Florida Project
9. I, Tonya
10. Mudbound
11. The Big Sick
12. Darkest Hour
13. Blade Runner 2049
14. Phantom Thread
15. Molly's Game
16. Wonder Woman
17. A Ghost Story
18. Coco
19. The Disaster Artist
20. mother!

Director
Who's gonna be the directors' surprise this year? This makes me giggle a bit, given my well-known dislike for him, but I think it's going to be Nolan. I just don't see the industry getting excited over Dunkirk, and if he's missed before --multiple times-- I see the argument that he'll be the big snub. But I've seen people suggest Peele will be the man out. So who will replace them? My feeling is that Guadagnino's film has a lot of passionate supporters, and that Baker will appeal to the directors' branch. I'm expecting one of them to make it in. Really, the only three I feel most sure about are del Toro, Gerwig, and McDonagh.

1. Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water
2. Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird
3. Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
4. Jordan Peele, Get Out
5. Christoper Nolan, Dunkirk
6. Luca Guadagnino, Call Me by Your Name
7. Sean Baker, The Florida Project
8. Steven Spielberg, The Post
9. Dee Rees, Mudbound
10. Denis Villeneuve, Blade Runner 2049

Actress
A fantastic year for actresses, many have settled on this top 5.
1. Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
2. Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water
3. Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird
4. Margot Robbie, I, Tonya
5. Meryl Streep, The Post
6. Jessica Chastain, Molly's Game
7. Judi Dench, Victoria & Abdul
8. Annette Bening, Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool
9. Michelle Williams, All the Money in the World
10. Emma Stone, Battle of the Sexes

Actor
Have the various scandals impacted the race, especially for Franco? Probably not, given it broke only two days before nominees were due. Have enough voters seen Phantom Thread to secure the legendary Daniel Day-Lewis what is potentially his final Oscar nomination? Steve Carell's chances are slim anyways, but he has been variously pushed as both lead and supporting. And has Hollywood forgotten McAvoy's celebrated turn in that early-year film, Split?
1. Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
2. Timothée Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name
3. Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out
4. Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread
5. James Franco, The Disaster Artist
6. Tom Hanks, The Post
7. Denzel Washington, Roman Israel, Esq.
8. Jake Gyllenhaal, Stronger
9. Steve Carell, Battle of the Sexes
10. James McAvoy, Split

Supporting Actress
I think this is the most unstable acting category, with any of the top 7 making it in -- but Janney and Metcalf are locks.
1. Alison Janney, I, Tonya
2. Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird
3. Mary J. Blige, Mudbound
4. Hong Chau, Downsizing
5. Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water
6. Holly Hunter, The Big Sick
7. Tiffany Hadish, Girls' Trip
8. Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread
9. Catherine Keener, Get Out
10. Michelle Pfeiffer, mother!

Supporting Actor
Dafoe and Rockwell have been sweeping the season, with plenty of nom's for Harrelson, too. Hammer looks to be in, and many are suggesting Jenkins, too -- but I think Plummer will make the nomination given the circumstances surrounding the film. After the top 8, it becomes more of a crapshoot. Can you imagine Ray Romano, Oscar nominee?
1. Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
2. Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
3. Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
4. Armie Hammer, Call Me by Your Name
5. Christopher Plummer, All the Money in the World
6. Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water
7. Patrick Stewart, Logan
8. Michael Stuhlbarg, Call Me by Your Name
9. Ray Romano, The Big Sick
10. Michael Shannon, The Shape of Water

Adapted Screenplay
Looks like this one's pretty locked down, with Wonder and Logan battling it out for fifth. Yes, that would make the first superhero film nominated for a writing Oscar.
1. Call Me by Your Name
2. The Disaster Artist
3. Molly's Game
4. Mudbound
5. Wonder
6. Logan
7. The Lost City of Z
8. Wonder Woman
9. Blade Runner 2049
10. Wonderstruck

Original Screenplay
In a strange year, there are many more in play for Original rather than Adapted screenplay. I'm so unsure, I upped it to eleven possibilities. I think Lady Bird and Three Billboards are actually the safest, and despite putting it as first (I think there's plenty of passion out there), I wouldn't be shocked if Get Out misses the nomination.
1. Get Out
2. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
3. Lady Bird
4. The Shape of Water
5. I, Tonya
6. The Big Sick
7. Phantom Thread
8. The Post
9. Dunkirk
10. The Florida Project
11. Darkest Hour

Cinematography
Can Roger Deakins FINALLY win his Oscar, please? Oh ho ho!, says the Three Amigo.
1. Blade Runner 2049
2. The Shape of Water
3. Dunkirk
4. Mudbound
5. Darkest Hour
6. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
7. Call Me by Your Name
8. The Post
9. Phantom Thread
10. The Florida Project

Editing
1. Dunkirk
2. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
3. Baby Driver
4. The Shape of Water
5. Blade Runner 2049
6. I, Tonya
7. Get Out
8. The Post
9. Lady Bird
10. Molly's Game

Production Design
1. The Shape of Water
2. Blade Runner 2049
3. Beauty and the Beast
4. The Post
5. Darkest Hour
6. Dunkirk
7. Phantom Thread
8. Murder on the Orient Express
9. Call Me by Your Name
10. Mudbound

Costume Design
1. Phantom Thread
2. Beauty and the Beast
3. The Shape of Water
4. Murder on the Orient Express
5. I, Tonya
6. The Greatest Showman
7. Darkest Hour
8. The Post
9. Blade Runner 2049
10. Wonder Woman

Hairstyling and Makeup
1. Darkest Hour
2. Wonder
3. I, Tonya
4. Bright
5. Guardians of the Galaxy, vol. 2
6. Victoria & Abdul
7. Ghost in the Shell

Original Score
1. The Shape of Water
2. Dunkirk
3. The Post
4. Phantom Thread
5. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
6. Darkest Hour
7. Blade Runner 2049
8. Victoria & Abdul
9. Beauty and the Beast
10. The Greatest Showman

Original Song
1. "Remember Me", Coco
2. "Evermore", Beauty and the Beast
3. "This is Me", The Greatest Showman
4. "Mystery of Love", Call Me by Your Name
5. "Mighty River", Mudbound
6. "Stand Up for Something", Marshall
7. "Prayers for this World", Cries from Syria
8. "Never Forget", Murder on the Orient Express
9. "I Don't Wanna Live Forever", Fifty Shades Darker
10. "Visions of Gideon", Call Me by Your Name

Sound Mixing
1. Dunkirk
2. The Shape of Water
3. Blade Runner 2049
4. Baby Driver
5. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
6. Wonder Woman
7. The Greatest Showman
8. Coco
9. Life
10. Get Out

Sound Editing
1. Dunkirk
2. The Shape of Water
3. Blade Runner 2049
4. Baby Driver
5. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
6. War for the Planet of the Apes
7. Wonder Woman
8. Get Out
9. Life
10. Only the Brave

Visual Effects
1. War for the Planet of the Apes
2. Blade Runner 2049
3. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
4. Okja
5. Dunkirk
6. The Shape of Water
7. Kong: Skull Island
8. Alien: Covenant
9. Guardians of the Galaxy, vol. 2
10. Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets

Foreign Language
1. In the Fade
2. A Fantastic Woman
3. Loveless
4. The Insult
5. The Square
6. Foxtrot
7. The Wound
8. On Body and Soul
9. Felicite

Animated Feature
1. Coco
2. The Breadwinner
3. Loving Vincent
4. The LEGO Batman Movie
5. Despicable Me 3
6. The Boss Baby
7. Cars 3
8. Captain Underpants: The First Epic Movie
9. Mary and the Witch's Flower
10. The Girl Without Hands

Documentary Feature
1. City of Ghosts
2. Jane
3. Faces Places
4. Chasing Coral
5. Icarus
6. Strong Island
7. LA 92
8. Last Men in Aleppo
9. Human Flow
10. An Inconvenient Sequel


SCOREBOARD
The Shape of Water - 11
Dunkirk - 8
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri - 8
Blade Runner 2049 - 6
I, Tonya - 6
Lady Bird - 5
Mudbound - 5
Call Me by Your Name - 4
Darkest Hour - 4
Get Out - 4
The Post - 4
Beauty and the Beast - 3
Phantom Thread - 3
Star Wars: The Last Jedi - 3
Baby Driver - 2
Coco - 2
The Disaster Artist - 2
The Florida Project - 2
Wonder - 2