This should be a cakewalk for La La Land this year, as I'm expecting it to sweep the categories. Picture, Director and Actress are almost givens, as is Score, Song and Sound Mixing. In Original Screenplay, it's a toss-up between the film and Lonergan's Manchester by the Sea; will the Academy want to award this indie darling here, seeing that Denzel Washington looks to beat the previously anointed Casey Affleck? In the craft categories, Cinematography is La La Land's best bet, with Hacksaw Ridge giving it competition for Editing. In Production Design, I'm still expecting it to win despite the film's rather modest design --but remember, it's Best design, not Most design, and I'm quite the cheerleader for the film. But if voters want to award something flashier, maybe it'll be Fantastic Beasts, or even Arrival. Speaking of a category in which something flashier usually wins, I'm expecting La La Land to lose in the category of Costume Design, bowing out to Jackie. So that leaves Sound Editing... and let's be honest, it's somewhat miraculous it was even nominated in this category, so I'm expecting Hacksaw Ridge to pick up this award.
So what does that leave us with? Viola Davis has been sweeping the season with Fences, and for good reason: she's excellent in it, and she's overdue for an award after losing Best Actress to Meryl Streep a few years ago. Supporting Actor is a curious category, as many are expecting Mahershala Ali to pick up the award for Moonlight --but at the BAFTAs and the Globes, he lost to Dev Patel and (the not nominated) Aaron Taylor-Johnson. If there's a snub-surprise on Sunday night, I'm expecting it to be here for Patel. Still, I'm predicting Ali to get one of Moonlight's two awards, the other one being Adapted Screenplay. But if there's an award that the beautiful Moonlight I feel doesn't deserve, it's for its screenplay. Arrival would be a better choice, and will the Academy agree with me? Probably not. (For the record, Moonlight is a masterpiece of editing, cinematography and acting, but I think its screenplay is a bit... well, thin.) But I digress.
Makeup and Hairstyling should go to Star Trek Beyond, the second win in the category for the rebooted series. Visual effects will probably go The Jungle Book, but I feel that this is a category ripe for a surprise this year. For the three other feature categories, I'm going for Zootopia, OJ: Made in America and not Toni Erdmann, but The Salesman. Just a hunch that a lot of other predictors are also making, although don't be surprised if A Man Called Ove picks it up. (Erdmann is probably just too weird for the voters in this category.) And that leaves the shorts. Always a crapshoot. So let's go with The White Helmets over Joe's Violin in Doc Short, because, hey, why not. Animated Short is widely expected to go for Piper, and I agree. And finally, Live Action Short has prognosticators all over the place, as it usually does, but the lead is probably for Ennemis Interieurs. So let's go with that.
So that makes me believe that La La Land will win the night with 10 awards. Wow!
Best Picture
Will Win: La La Land
If Hell Freezes Over: Moonlight
Director
Will Win: Damien Chazelle, La La Land
If Hell Freezes Over: Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
Actress
Will Win: Emma Stone, La La Land
Might Win: Isabelle Huppert, Elle
Actor
Will Win: Denzel Washington, Fences
Might Win: Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
Supporting Actress
Will Win: Viola Davis, Fences
Shocker: Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea
Supporting Actor
Will Win: Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
Might Win: Dev Patel, Lion
Original Screenplay
Will Win: La La Land
Might Win: Manchester by the Sea
Adapted Screenplay
Will Win: Moonlight
Might Win: Arrival
Editing
Will Win: La La Land
Might Win: Hacksaw Ridge
Cinematography
Will Win: La La Land
Might Win: Arrival
Production Design
Will Win: La La Land
Might Win: Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Costume Design
Will Win: Jackie
Might Win: La La Land
Makeup and Hairstyling
Will Win: Star Trek Beyond
Might Win: A Man Called Ove
Original Score
Will Win: La La Land
If Hell Freezes Over: Moonlight
Original Song
Will Win: "City of Stars", La La Land
Might Win: "Audition (The Fools Who Dream)", La La Land
Sound Mixing
Will Win: La La Land
Might Win: Hacksaw Ridge
Dark Horse: Arrival
Sound Editing
Will Win: Hacksaw Ridge
Might Win: Arrival
If There Really is a Sweep Goin' On: La La Land
Visual Effects
Will Win: The Jungle Book
Might Win: Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
Animated Feature
Will Win: Zootopia
Might Win: Kubo and the Two Strings
Foreign Language Feature
Will Win: The Salesman
Might Win: A Man Called Ove
Documentary Feature
Will Win: OJ: Made in America
Might Win: 13th
Animated Short
Will Win: Piper
Might Win: Pearl
Live Action Short
Will Win: Ennemis Interieurs
Might Win: Timecode
But Really, Who Knows?: La Femme et le TGV
Documentary Short
Will Win: The White Helmets
Might Win: Joe's Violin
Friday, February 24, 2017
Tuesday, January 24, 2017
Oscar Nominations Reaction 2017
89/107
Definitely one of my better years! The 'snubs' here are Amy Adams for Arrival missing out, maybe Hugh Grant from Florence Foster Jenkins, and in my mind, Rogue One missing out the Sound Editing. But overall, not too many surprises. We'll have to get used to Passengers being more nominated than Silence, though.
Best Picture
1. La La Land
2. Moonlight
3. Manchester by the Sea
4. Arrival
5. Lion
6. Hidden Figures
7. Fences
8. Hacksaw Ridge
9. Hell or High Water
9/9
Director
1. Damien Chazelle, La La Land
2. Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
3. Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea
4. Denis Villeneuve, Arrival
6. Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge
4/5
Actress
1. Emma Stone, La La Land
2. Natalie Portman, Jackie
4. Isabelle Huppert, Elle
5. Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins
7. Ruth Negga, Loving
4/5
Actor
1. Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
2. Denzel Washington, Fences
3. Ryan Gosling, La La Land
4. Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic
5. Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge
(7. Tom Hanks, Sully was listed as the 6th nomination on the website!)
5/5
Supporting Actress
1. Viola Davis, Fences
2. Michelle Williams, Manchester bu the Sea
3. Naomie Harris, Moonlight
4. Nicole Kidman, Lion
5. Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures
5/5
Supporting Actor
1. Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
2. Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water
3. Dev Patel, Lion
5. Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea
9. Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals
4/5
Adapted Screenplay
1. Moonlight
2. Arrival
3. Hidden Figures
4. Fences
5. Lion
5/5
Original Screenplay
1. La La Land
2. Manchester by the Sea
3. Hell or High Water
4. The Lobster
10. 20th Century Women
4/5
Editing
1. La La Land
2. Arrival
3. Moonlight
4. Hacksaw Ridge
6. Hell or High Water
4/5
Cinematography
1. La La Land
2. Arrival
3. Moonlight
4. Silence
5. Lion
5/5
Production Design
1. La La Land
2. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
4. Hail, Caesar!
5. Arrival
8. Passengers
4/5
Costume Design
1. Jackie
2. La La Land
3. Florence Foster Jenkins
4. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
6. Allied
4/5
Makeup and Hairstyling
2. Star Trek Beyond
4. A Man Called Ove
7. Suicide Squad
1/3
Original Score
1. La La Land
2. Lion
3. Moonlight
4. Jackie
-. Passengers
4/5
Original Song
1. "City of Stars", La La Land
2. "Audition (The Fools Who Dream)", La La Land
4. "How Far I'll Go", Moana
-. "Can't Stop The Feeling", Trolls
-. "The Empty Chair", JimL The James Foley Story
3/5
Sound Mixing
1. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
2. La La Land
3. Hacksaw Ridge
5. Arrival
8. 13 Hours
4/5
Sound Editing
2. Hacksaw Ridge
3. Arrival
4. Deepwater Horizon
5. La La Land
9. Sully
4/5
Visual Effects
1. The Jungle Book
2. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
3. Deepwater Horizon
5. Doctor Strange
6. Kubo and the Two Strings
4/5
Animated Feature
1. Zootopia
2. Moana
3. Kubo and the Two Strings
4. The Red Turtle
5. My Life as a Zucchini
5/5
Foreign Language
Despite the critical thrashing, I have a feeling Dolan's film is getting in.
1. Toni Erdmann (Germany)
2. A Man Called Ove (Sweden)
3. The Salesman (Iran)
4. Land of Mine (Denmark)
8. Tanna (Australia)
4/5
Documentary Feature
1. OJ: Made in America
2. 13th
3. I Am Not Your Negro
6. Fire at Sea
7. Life, Animated
3/5
TALLIES
La La Land - 14
Arrival - 8
Moonlight - 8
Manchester by the Sea - 6
Lion - 6
Hacksaw Ridge - 6
Fences - 4
Hell or High Water - 4
Jackie - 3
Hidden Figures - 3
Florence Foster Jenkins - 2
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story - 2
Deepwater Horizon - 2
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them - 2
Moana - 2
Kubo and the Two Strings - 2
Passengers - 2
Nocturnal Animals - 1
Definitely one of my better years! The 'snubs' here are Amy Adams for Arrival missing out, maybe Hugh Grant from Florence Foster Jenkins, and in my mind, Rogue One missing out the Sound Editing. But overall, not too many surprises. We'll have to get used to Passengers being more nominated than Silence, though.
Best Picture
1. La La Land
2. Moonlight
3. Manchester by the Sea
4. Arrival
5. Lion
6. Hidden Figures
7. Fences
8. Hacksaw Ridge
9. Hell or High Water
9/9
Director
1. Damien Chazelle, La La Land
2. Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
3. Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea
4. Denis Villeneuve, Arrival
6. Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge
4/5
Actress
1. Emma Stone, La La Land
2. Natalie Portman, Jackie
4. Isabelle Huppert, Elle
5. Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins
7. Ruth Negga, Loving
4/5
Actor
1. Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
2. Denzel Washington, Fences
3. Ryan Gosling, La La Land
4. Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic
5. Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge
(7. Tom Hanks, Sully was listed as the 6th nomination on the website!)
5/5
Supporting Actress
1. Viola Davis, Fences
2. Michelle Williams, Manchester bu the Sea
3. Naomie Harris, Moonlight
4. Nicole Kidman, Lion
5. Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures
5/5
Supporting Actor
1. Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
2. Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water
3. Dev Patel, Lion
5. Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea
9. Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals
4/5
Adapted Screenplay
1. Moonlight
2. Arrival
3. Hidden Figures
4. Fences
5. Lion
5/5
Original Screenplay
1. La La Land
2. Manchester by the Sea
3. Hell or High Water
4. The Lobster
10. 20th Century Women
4/5
Editing
1. La La Land
2. Arrival
3. Moonlight
4. Hacksaw Ridge
6. Hell or High Water
4/5
Cinematography
1. La La Land
2. Arrival
3. Moonlight
4. Silence
5. Lion
5/5
Production Design
1. La La Land
2. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
4. Hail, Caesar!
5. Arrival
8. Passengers
4/5
Costume Design
1. Jackie
2. La La Land
3. Florence Foster Jenkins
4. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
6. Allied
4/5
Makeup and Hairstyling
2. Star Trek Beyond
4. A Man Called Ove
7. Suicide Squad
1/3
Original Score
1. La La Land
2. Lion
3. Moonlight
4. Jackie
-. Passengers
4/5
Original Song
1. "City of Stars", La La Land
2. "Audition (The Fools Who Dream)", La La Land
4. "How Far I'll Go", Moana
-. "Can't Stop The Feeling", Trolls
-. "The Empty Chair", JimL The James Foley Story
3/5
Sound Mixing
1. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
2. La La Land
3. Hacksaw Ridge
5. Arrival
8. 13 Hours
4/5
Sound Editing
2. Hacksaw Ridge
3. Arrival
4. Deepwater Horizon
5. La La Land
9. Sully
4/5
Visual Effects
1. The Jungle Book
2. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
3. Deepwater Horizon
5. Doctor Strange
6. Kubo and the Two Strings
4/5
Animated Feature
1. Zootopia
2. Moana
3. Kubo and the Two Strings
4. The Red Turtle
5. My Life as a Zucchini
5/5
Foreign Language
Despite the critical thrashing, I have a feeling Dolan's film is getting in.
1. Toni Erdmann (Germany)
2. A Man Called Ove (Sweden)
3. The Salesman (Iran)
4. Land of Mine (Denmark)
8. Tanna (Australia)
4/5
Documentary Feature
1. OJ: Made in America
2. 13th
3. I Am Not Your Negro
6. Fire at Sea
7. Life, Animated
3/5
TALLIES
La La Land - 14
Arrival - 8
Moonlight - 8
Manchester by the Sea - 6
Lion - 6
Hacksaw Ridge - 6
Fences - 4
Hell or High Water - 4
Jackie - 3
Hidden Figures - 3
Florence Foster Jenkins - 2
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story - 2
Deepwater Horizon - 2
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them - 2
Moana - 2
Kubo and the Two Strings - 2
Passengers - 2
Nocturnal Animals - 1
Sunday, January 22, 2017
Oscar Nominations Predictions 2017
Best Picture
1. La La Land
2. Moonlight
3. Manchester by the Sea
4. Arrival
5. Lion
6. Hidden Figures
7. Fences
8. Hacksaw Ridge
9. Hell or High Water
10. Nocturnal Animals
11. Loving
12. Silence
13. Jackie
14. Florence Foster Jenkins
15. Sully
16. I, Daniel Blake
17. Deadpool
18. 20th Century Women
19. Captain Fantastic
20. Patriots Day
Director
1. Damien Chazelle, La La Land
2. Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
3. Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea
4. Denis Villeneuve, Arrival
5. Garth Davis, Lion
6. Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge
7. David Mackenzie, Hell or High Water
8. Martin Scorsese, Silence
9. Tom Ford, Nocturnal Animals
10. Denzel Washington, Fences
Actress
A very tight race this year.
1. Emma Stone, La La Land
2. Natalie Portman, Jackie
3. Amy Adams, Arrival
4. Isabelle Huppert, Elle
5. Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins
6. Annette Bening, 20th Century Women
7. Ruth Negga, Loving
8. Taraji P. Henson, Hidden Figures
9. Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane
10. Emily Blunt, The Girl on the Train
Actor
The top 6 seem to be the most likely by a long shot.
1. Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
2. Denzel Washington, Fences
3. Ryan Gosling, La La Land
4. Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic
5. Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge
6. Joel Edgerton, Loving
7. Tom Hanks, Sully
8. Jake Gyllenhaal, Nocturnal Animals
9. Adam Driver, Paterson
10. Andrew Garfield, Silence
Supporting Actress
Janelle or Octavia for the fifth spot? Maybe both?
1. Viola Davis, Fences
2. Michelle Williams, Manchester bu the Sea
3. Naomie Harris, Moonlight
4. Nicole Kidman, Lion
5. Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures
6. Janelle Monaé, Hidden Figures
7. Greta Gerwig, 20th Century Women
8. Hayley Squires, I, Daniel Blake
9. Lily Gladstone, Certain Women
Supporting Actor
1. Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
2. Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water
3. Dev Patel, Lion
4. Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins
5. Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea
6. Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Nocturnal Animals
7. Kevin Costner, Hidden Figures
8. Issey Ogata, Silence
9. Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals
10. Ben Foster, Hell or High Water
Adapted Screenplay
1. Moonlight
2. Arrival
3. Hidden Figures
4. Fences
5. Lion
6. Nocturnal Animals
7. Hacksaw Ridge
8. Silence
9. Loving
10. Deadpool
Original Screenplay
1. La La Land
2. Manchester by the Sea
3. Hell or High Water
4. The Lobster
5. Jackie
6. I, Daniel Blake
7. Captain Fantastic
8. Zootopia
9. Toni Erdmann
10. 20th Century Women
Editing
1. La La Land
2. Arrival
3. Moonlight
4. Hacksaw Ridge
5. Manchester by the Sea
6. Hell or High Water
7. Nocturnal Animals
8. Lion
9. Silence
10. Sully
Cinematography
1. La La Land
2. Arrival
3. Moonlight
4. Silence
5. Lion
6. Nocturnal Animals
7. Hell or High Water
8. Jackie
9. Hail, Caesar!
10. Live by Night
Production Design
1. La La Land
2. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
3. Jackie
4. Hail, Caesar!
5. Arrival
6. Silence
7. Nocturnal Animals
8. Passengers
9. Live by Night
10. Hacksaw Ridge
Costume Design
1. Jackie
2. La La Land
3. Florence Foster Jenkins
4. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
5. The Dressmaker
6. Allied
7. Hail, Caesar!
8. Hidden Figures
9. Live by Night
10. Love & Friendship
Makeup and Hairstyling
1. Florence Foster Jenkins
2. Star Trek Beyond
3. Deadpool
4. A Man Called Ove
5. The Dressmaker
6. Hail, Caesar!
7. The Dressmaker
Original Score
1. La La Land
2. Lion
3. Moonlight
4. Jackie
5. Nocturnal Animals
6. Hidden Figures
7. Hacksaw Ridge
8. The BFG
9. Florence Foster Jenkins
10. Hell or High Water
Original Song
1. "City of Stars", La La Land
2. "Audition (The Fools Who Dream)", La La Land
3. "Runnin'", Hidden Figures
4. "How Far I'll Go", Moana
5. "Faith", Sing
6. And as per usual, beyond the supposed frontrunners, I have no idea.
Sound Mixing
1. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
2. La La Land
3. Hacksaw Ridge
4. Deepwater Horizon
5. Arrival
6. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
7. Patriots Day
8. 13 Hours
9. The Jungle Book
10. Sully
Sound Editing
Apparently, a musical has never been nominated here. What the heck, let's take a chance and guess La La Land for the fifth position!
1. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
2. Hacksaw Ridge
3. Arrival
4. Deepwater Horizon
5. La La Land
6. Patriots Day
7. 13 Hours
8. The Jungle Book
9. Sully
10. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Visual Effects
1. The Jungle Book
2. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
3. Deepwater Horizon
4. Arrival
5. Doctor Strange
6. Kubo and the Two Strings
7. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
8. Passengers
9. Captain America: Civil War
10. The BFG
Animated Feature
1. Zootopia
2. Moana
3. Kubo and the Two Strings
4. The Red Turtle
5. My Life as a Zucchini
6. Sing
7. Finding Dory
8. Miss Hokusai
9. The Little Prince
10. Sausage Party
Foreign Language
Despite the critical thrashing, I have a feeling Dolan's film is getting in.
1. Toni Erdmann (Germany)
2. A Man Called Ove (Sweden)
3. The Salesman (Iran)
4. Land of Mine (Denmark)
5. It's Only the End of the World (Canada)
6. My Life as a Zucchini (Switzerland)
7. Paradise (Russia)
8. Tanna (Australia)
9. The King's Choice (Norway)
Documentary Feature
1. OJ: Made in America
2. 13th
3. I Am Not Your Negro
4. Weiner
5. The Eagle Huntress
6. Fire at Sea
7. Life, Animated
8. Gleason
9. The Ivory Game
10. Tower
TALLIES
La La Land - 14
Arrival - 10
Moonlight - 8
Manchester by the Sea - 7
Lion - 7
Hacksaw Ridge - 5
Jackie - 5
Hidden Figures - 4
Fences - 4
Florence Foster Jenkins - 4
Hell or High Water - 3
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story - 3
Deepwater Horizon - 3
Nocturnal Animals - 2
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them - 2
Moana - 2
1. La La Land
2. Moonlight
3. Manchester by the Sea
4. Arrival
5. Lion
6. Hidden Figures
7. Fences
8. Hacksaw Ridge
9. Hell or High Water
10. Nocturnal Animals
11. Loving
12. Silence
13. Jackie
14. Florence Foster Jenkins
15. Sully
16. I, Daniel Blake
17. Deadpool
18. 20th Century Women
19. Captain Fantastic
20. Patriots Day
Director
1. Damien Chazelle, La La Land
2. Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
3. Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea
4. Denis Villeneuve, Arrival
5. Garth Davis, Lion
6. Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge
7. David Mackenzie, Hell or High Water
8. Martin Scorsese, Silence
9. Tom Ford, Nocturnal Animals
10. Denzel Washington, Fences
Actress
A very tight race this year.
1. Emma Stone, La La Land
2. Natalie Portman, Jackie
3. Amy Adams, Arrival
4. Isabelle Huppert, Elle
5. Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins
6. Annette Bening, 20th Century Women
7. Ruth Negga, Loving
8. Taraji P. Henson, Hidden Figures
9. Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane
10. Emily Blunt, The Girl on the Train
Actor
The top 6 seem to be the most likely by a long shot.
1. Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
2. Denzel Washington, Fences
3. Ryan Gosling, La La Land
4. Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic
5. Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge
6. Joel Edgerton, Loving
7. Tom Hanks, Sully
8. Jake Gyllenhaal, Nocturnal Animals
9. Adam Driver, Paterson
10. Andrew Garfield, Silence
Supporting Actress
Janelle or Octavia for the fifth spot? Maybe both?
1. Viola Davis, Fences
2. Michelle Williams, Manchester bu the Sea
3. Naomie Harris, Moonlight
4. Nicole Kidman, Lion
5. Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures
6. Janelle Monaé, Hidden Figures
7. Greta Gerwig, 20th Century Women
8. Hayley Squires, I, Daniel Blake
9. Lily Gladstone, Certain Women
Supporting Actor
1. Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
2. Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water
3. Dev Patel, Lion
4. Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins
5. Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea
6. Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Nocturnal Animals
7. Kevin Costner, Hidden Figures
8. Issey Ogata, Silence
9. Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals
10. Ben Foster, Hell or High Water
Adapted Screenplay
1. Moonlight
2. Arrival
3. Hidden Figures
4. Fences
5. Lion
6. Nocturnal Animals
7. Hacksaw Ridge
8. Silence
9. Loving
10. Deadpool
Original Screenplay
1. La La Land
2. Manchester by the Sea
3. Hell or High Water
4. The Lobster
5. Jackie
6. I, Daniel Blake
7. Captain Fantastic
8. Zootopia
9. Toni Erdmann
10. 20th Century Women
Editing
1. La La Land
2. Arrival
3. Moonlight
4. Hacksaw Ridge
5. Manchester by the Sea
6. Hell or High Water
7. Nocturnal Animals
8. Lion
9. Silence
10. Sully
Cinematography
1. La La Land
2. Arrival
3. Moonlight
4. Silence
5. Lion
6. Nocturnal Animals
7. Hell or High Water
8. Jackie
9. Hail, Caesar!
10. Live by Night
Production Design
1. La La Land
2. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
3. Jackie
4. Hail, Caesar!
5. Arrival
6. Silence
7. Nocturnal Animals
8. Passengers
9. Live by Night
10. Hacksaw Ridge
Costume Design
1. Jackie
2. La La Land
3. Florence Foster Jenkins
4. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
5. The Dressmaker
6. Allied
7. Hail, Caesar!
8. Hidden Figures
9. Live by Night
10. Love & Friendship
Makeup and Hairstyling
1. Florence Foster Jenkins
2. Star Trek Beyond
3. Deadpool
4. A Man Called Ove
5. The Dressmaker
6. Hail, Caesar!
7. The Dressmaker
Original Score
1. La La Land
2. Lion
3. Moonlight
4. Jackie
5. Nocturnal Animals
6. Hidden Figures
7. Hacksaw Ridge
8. The BFG
9. Florence Foster Jenkins
10. Hell or High Water
Original Song
1. "City of Stars", La La Land
2. "Audition (The Fools Who Dream)", La La Land
3. "Runnin'", Hidden Figures
4. "How Far I'll Go", Moana
5. "Faith", Sing
6. And as per usual, beyond the supposed frontrunners, I have no idea.
Sound Mixing
1. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
2. La La Land
3. Hacksaw Ridge
4. Deepwater Horizon
5. Arrival
6. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
7. Patriots Day
8. 13 Hours
9. The Jungle Book
10. Sully
Sound Editing
Apparently, a musical has never been nominated here. What the heck, let's take a chance and guess La La Land for the fifth position!
1. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
2. Hacksaw Ridge
3. Arrival
4. Deepwater Horizon
5. La La Land
6. Patriots Day
7. 13 Hours
8. The Jungle Book
9. Sully
10. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Visual Effects
1. The Jungle Book
2. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
3. Deepwater Horizon
4. Arrival
5. Doctor Strange
6. Kubo and the Two Strings
7. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
8. Passengers
9. Captain America: Civil War
10. The BFG
Animated Feature
1. Zootopia
2. Moana
3. Kubo and the Two Strings
4. The Red Turtle
5. My Life as a Zucchini
6. Sing
7. Finding Dory
8. Miss Hokusai
9. The Little Prince
10. Sausage Party
Foreign Language
Despite the critical thrashing, I have a feeling Dolan's film is getting in.
1. Toni Erdmann (Germany)
2. A Man Called Ove (Sweden)
3. The Salesman (Iran)
4. Land of Mine (Denmark)
5. It's Only the End of the World (Canada)
6. My Life as a Zucchini (Switzerland)
7. Paradise (Russia)
8. Tanna (Australia)
9. The King's Choice (Norway)
Documentary Feature
1. OJ: Made in America
2. 13th
3. I Am Not Your Negro
4. Weiner
5. The Eagle Huntress
6. Fire at Sea
7. Life, Animated
8. Gleason
9. The Ivory Game
10. Tower
TALLIES
La La Land - 14
Arrival - 10
Moonlight - 8
Manchester by the Sea - 7
Lion - 7
Hacksaw Ridge - 5
Jackie - 5
Hidden Figures - 4
Fences - 4
Florence Foster Jenkins - 4
Hell or High Water - 3
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story - 3
Deepwater Horizon - 3
Nocturnal Animals - 2
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them - 2
Moana - 2
Friday, February 26, 2016
2016 Academy Award Predictions
What a year! After so many being utterly predictable in the major categories, we have a year that no one's quite sure who will take the top prize. And what a thrill that is for us Oscar watchers. I don't have much commentary this year, but it's interesting that the technical prizes are a battleground between The Revenant and Mad Max: Fury Road.
So I'm calling 6 for The Revenant, 3 for Mad Max: Fury Road and 2 for The Big Short.
BEST PICTURE
Amongst the primary precursors, we have a split. The Director's Guild gave it to Innaritu, the Producer's Guild to The Big Short, and the Screen Actor's Guild to Spotlight. The GGs gave it to Revenant, as did the BAFTAs. So I'm going with --and yes, that makes him the only director to direct two Best Pictures in a row--...
Will Win: The Revenant
Could Win: The Big Short
Wouldn't Be Surprised: Spotlight
DIRECTING
Will Win: Alejandro G. Innaritu, The Revenant
Could Win: George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road
ACTRESS
Will Win: Brie Larson, Room
Could Win: Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn
ACTOR
Will Win: Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
Dark Horse: Bryan Cranston, Trumbo
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Will Win: Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
Could Win: Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs
SUPPORTING ACTOR
Will Win: Sylvester Stallone, Creed
Could Win: Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Will Win: Spotlight
Dark Horse: Inside Out
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Will Win: The Big Short
Dark Horse: Room?
EDITING
Will Win: The Big Short
Could Win: Mad Max: Fury Road
CINEMATOGRAPHY
Will Win: The Revenant
Could Win: Mad Max: Fury Road
PRODUCTION DESIGN
Will Win: Mad Max: Fury Road
Could Win: The Revenant
COSTUME DESIGN
Will Win: Mad Max: Fury Road
Could Win: Cinderella
MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
Will Win: Mad Max: Fury Road
Could Win: The Revenant
SOUND MIXING
Will Win: The Revenant
Could Win: Mad Max: Fury Road
SOUND EDITING
Will Win: The Revenant
Could Win: Mad Max: Fury Road
ORIGINAL SCORE
Will Win: The Hateful Eight
Could Win: Carol
ORIGINAL SONG
Will Win: "Til It Happens to You", The Hunting Ground
Could Win: "Writing's on the Wall", Spectre
VISUAL EFFECTS
Will Win: Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Could Win: Mad Max: Fury Road
ANIMATED FEATURE
Will Win: Inside Out
Could Win: Anomalisa
DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Will Win: Amy
Could Win: What Happened, Miss Simone?
FOREIGN LANGUAGE FEATURE
Will Win: Son of Saul
Could Win: Mustang
ANIMATED SHORT
Will Win: Sanjay's Super Team
Could Win: Bear Story
LIVE ACTION SHORT
Will Win: Shok
Could Win: Stutterer
DOCUMENTARY SHORT
Will Win: A Girl in the River: The Price of Forgiveness
Could Win: Claude Lanzmann: Spectres of the Shoah
But Really, Who Knows?: Body Team 12
So I'm calling 6 for The Revenant, 3 for Mad Max: Fury Road and 2 for The Big Short.
BEST PICTURE
Amongst the primary precursors, we have a split. The Director's Guild gave it to Innaritu, the Producer's Guild to The Big Short, and the Screen Actor's Guild to Spotlight. The GGs gave it to Revenant, as did the BAFTAs. So I'm going with --and yes, that makes him the only director to direct two Best Pictures in a row--...
Will Win: The Revenant
Could Win: The Big Short
Wouldn't Be Surprised: Spotlight
DIRECTING
Will Win: Alejandro G. Innaritu, The Revenant
Could Win: George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road
ACTRESS
Will Win: Brie Larson, Room
Could Win: Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn
ACTOR
Will Win: Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
Dark Horse: Bryan Cranston, Trumbo
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Will Win: Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
Could Win: Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs
SUPPORTING ACTOR
Will Win: Sylvester Stallone, Creed
Could Win: Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Will Win: Spotlight
Dark Horse: Inside Out
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Will Win: The Big Short
Dark Horse: Room?
EDITING
Will Win: The Big Short
Could Win: Mad Max: Fury Road
CINEMATOGRAPHY
Will Win: The Revenant
Could Win: Mad Max: Fury Road
PRODUCTION DESIGN
Will Win: Mad Max: Fury Road
Could Win: The Revenant
COSTUME DESIGN
Will Win: Mad Max: Fury Road
Could Win: Cinderella
MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
Will Win: Mad Max: Fury Road
Could Win: The Revenant
SOUND MIXING
Will Win: The Revenant
Could Win: Mad Max: Fury Road
SOUND EDITING
Will Win: The Revenant
Could Win: Mad Max: Fury Road
ORIGINAL SCORE
Will Win: The Hateful Eight
Could Win: Carol
ORIGINAL SONG
Will Win: "Til It Happens to You", The Hunting Ground
Could Win: "Writing's on the Wall", Spectre
VISUAL EFFECTS
Will Win: Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Could Win: Mad Max: Fury Road
ANIMATED FEATURE
Will Win: Inside Out
Could Win: Anomalisa
DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Will Win: Amy
Could Win: What Happened, Miss Simone?
FOREIGN LANGUAGE FEATURE
Will Win: Son of Saul
Could Win: Mustang
ANIMATED SHORT
Will Win: Sanjay's Super Team
Could Win: Bear Story
LIVE ACTION SHORT
Will Win: Shok
Could Win: Stutterer
DOCUMENTARY SHORT
Will Win: A Girl in the River: The Price of Forgiveness
Could Win: Claude Lanzmann: Spectres of the Shoah
But Really, Who Knows?: Body Team 12
Thursday, January 14, 2016
Oscar Nominations 2016 Reaction
Not too many surprises this year. I would say the 'snubs' and surprises are Abrahamson making it in at the expense of Ridley Scott in Directing; the lack of Tarantino and Sorkin in the screenplays; Tom Hardy showing up in Supporting Actor; Carol missing in Production Design, and the missing of "See You Again" from Furious 7. I did pretty well this year, even though I haven't been following the season as closely. I ended with an 81/101.
Best Picture
1. The Revenant
2. Spotlight
3. The Big Short
4. The Martian
5. Mad Max: Fury Road
6. Brooklyn
7. Bridge of Spies
12. Room
7/8
Best Director
1. Alejandro G. Iñárritu, The Revenant
2. Tom McCarthy, Spotlight
4. George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road
5. Adam McKay, The Big Short
*. Lenny Abrahamson, Room
4/5
Best Actress
1. Brie Larson, Room
2. Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn
3. Cate Blanchett, Carol
5. Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years
6. Jennifer Lawrence, Joy
4/5
Best Actor
1. Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
2. Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
3. Bryan Cranston, Trumbo
4. Matt Damon, The Martian
5. Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl
5/5
Best Supporting Actress
1. Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs
3. Rooney Mara, Carol
4. Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight
6. Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
7. Rachel McAdams, Spotlight
3/5
Best Supporting Actor
1. Sylvester Stallone, Creed
2. Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies
3. Christian Bale, The Big Short
7. Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight
*. Tom Hardy, The Revenant
3/5
Best Original Screenplay
1. Spotlight
2. Inside Out
4. Bridge of Spies
5. Ex Machina
7. Straight Outta Compton
4/5
Best Adapted Screenplay
1. The Big Short
3. The Martian
4. Carol
5. Room
6. Brooklyn
4/5
Best Film Editing
1. The Big Short
2. Mad Max: Fury Road
3. The Revenant
5. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
8. Spotlight
4/5
Best Cinematography
1. The Revenant
2. Mad Max: Fury Road
3. Sicario
4. Carol
5. The Hateful Eight
5/5
Best Costume Design
1. Carol
2. Cinderella
4. Mad Max: Fury Road
5. The Danish Girl
9. The Revenant
4/5
Best Production Design
1. Mad Max: Fury Road
3. The Martian
4. Bridge of Spies
6. The Revenant
8. The Danish Girl
3/5
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
1. Mad Max: Fury Road
2. The Revenant
6. The 100 Year Old Man Who Climbed Out the Window and Disappeared
2/3
Best Original Score
1. The Hateful Eight
2. Sicario
3. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
4. Carol
6. Bridge of Spies
4/5
Best Original Song
1. "Til It Happens to You", The Hunting Grounds
3. "Writing's On the Wall", Spectre
4. "Simple Song #3", Youth
*. "Earned It", Fifty Shades of Grey
*. "Manta Ray", Racing Extinction
3/5
Best Sound Mixing
1. Mad Max: Fury Road
2. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
3. The Revenant
4. Bridge of Spies
5. The Martian
5/5
Best Sound Editing
1. Mad Max: Fury Road
2. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
3. The Revenant
4. The Martian
7. Sicario
4/5
Best Visual Effects
1. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
2. Mad Max: Fury Road
3. The Revenant
4. The Martian
7. Ex Machina
4/5
Best Foreign Language Film
1. Son of Saul
2. Mustang
5. Theeb
8. A War
9. Embrace of the Serpent
3/5
Best Animated Feature
1. Inside Out
2. Anomalisa
4. Shaun the Sheep Movie
8. Boy and the World
9. When Marnie Was There
3/5
Best Documentary Feature
1. Amy
2. The Look of Silence
*. Cartel Land
*. What Happened, Miss Simone?
*. Winter on Fire: Ukraine's Fight for Freedom
3/5
81/101
Best Picture
1. The Revenant
2. Spotlight
3. The Big Short
4. The Martian
5. Mad Max: Fury Road
6. Brooklyn
7. Bridge of Spies
12. Room
7/8
Best Director
1. Alejandro G. Iñárritu, The Revenant
2. Tom McCarthy, Spotlight
4. George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road
5. Adam McKay, The Big Short
*. Lenny Abrahamson, Room
4/5
Best Actress
1. Brie Larson, Room
2. Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn
3. Cate Blanchett, Carol
5. Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years
6. Jennifer Lawrence, Joy
4/5
Best Actor
1. Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
2. Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
3. Bryan Cranston, Trumbo
4. Matt Damon, The Martian
5. Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl
5/5
Best Supporting Actress
1. Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs
3. Rooney Mara, Carol
4. Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight
6. Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
7. Rachel McAdams, Spotlight
3/5
Best Supporting Actor
1. Sylvester Stallone, Creed
2. Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies
3. Christian Bale, The Big Short
7. Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight
*. Tom Hardy, The Revenant
3/5
Best Original Screenplay
1. Spotlight
2. Inside Out
4. Bridge of Spies
5. Ex Machina
7. Straight Outta Compton
4/5
Best Adapted Screenplay
1. The Big Short
3. The Martian
4. Carol
5. Room
6. Brooklyn
4/5
Best Film Editing
1. The Big Short
2. Mad Max: Fury Road
3. The Revenant
5. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
8. Spotlight
4/5
Best Cinematography
1. The Revenant
2. Mad Max: Fury Road
3. Sicario
4. Carol
5. The Hateful Eight
5/5
Best Costume Design
1. Carol
2. Cinderella
4. Mad Max: Fury Road
5. The Danish Girl
9. The Revenant
4/5
Best Production Design
1. Mad Max: Fury Road
3. The Martian
4. Bridge of Spies
6. The Revenant
8. The Danish Girl
3/5
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
1. Mad Max: Fury Road
2. The Revenant
6. The 100 Year Old Man Who Climbed Out the Window and Disappeared
2/3
Best Original Score
1. The Hateful Eight
2. Sicario
3. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
4. Carol
6. Bridge of Spies
4/5
Best Original Song
1. "Til It Happens to You", The Hunting Grounds
3. "Writing's On the Wall", Spectre
4. "Simple Song #3", Youth
*. "Earned It", Fifty Shades of Grey
*. "Manta Ray", Racing Extinction
3/5
Best Sound Mixing
1. Mad Max: Fury Road
2. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
3. The Revenant
4. Bridge of Spies
5. The Martian
5/5
Best Sound Editing
1. Mad Max: Fury Road
2. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
3. The Revenant
4. The Martian
7. Sicario
4/5
Best Visual Effects
1. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
2. Mad Max: Fury Road
3. The Revenant
4. The Martian
7. Ex Machina
4/5
Best Foreign Language Film
1. Son of Saul
2. Mustang
5. Theeb
8. A War
9. Embrace of the Serpent
3/5
Best Animated Feature
1. Inside Out
2. Anomalisa
4. Shaun the Sheep Movie
8. Boy and the World
9. When Marnie Was There
3/5
Best Documentary Feature
1. Amy
2. The Look of Silence
*. Cartel Land
*. What Happened, Miss Simone?
*. Winter on Fire: Ukraine's Fight for Freedom
3/5
81/101
Wednesday, January 13, 2016
Oscar Nominations Predictions 2016
Best Picture
1. The Revenant
2. Spotlight
3. The Big Short
4. The Martian
5. Mad Max: Fury Road
6. Brooklyn
7. Bridge of Spies
8. Carol
9. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
10. Inside Out
11. Straight Outta Compton
12. Room
13. Sicario
14. Trumbo
15. The Hateful Eight
Best Director
1. Alejandro G. Iñárritu, The Revenant
2. Tom McCarthy, Spotlight
3. Ridley Scott, The Martian
4. George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road
5. Adam McKay, The Big Short
6. Todd Haynes, Carol
7. Steven Spielberg, Bridge of Spies
8. Denis Villeneuve, Sicario
9. Quentin Tarantino, The Hateful Eight
10. John Crowley, Brooklyn
Best Actress
1. Brie Larson, Room
2. Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn
3. Cate Blanchett, Carol
4. Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
5. Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years
6. Jennifer Lawrence, Joy
7. Rooney Mara, Carol
8. Carey Mulligan, Suffragette
9. Maggie Smith, The Lady in the Van
10. Lily Tomlin, Grandma
Best Actor
1. Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
2. Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
3. Bryan Cranston, Trumbo
4. Matt Damon, The Martian
5. Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl
6. Johnny Depp, Black Mass
7. Michael B. Jordan, Creed
8. Will Smith, Concussion
9. Steve Carell, The Big Short
10. Tom Hanks, Bridge of Spies
Best Supporting Actress
1. Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs
2. Alicia Vikander, Ex Machina
3. Rooney Mara, Carol
4. Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight
5. Helen Mirren, Trumbo
6. Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
7. Rachel McAdams, Spotlight
8. Jane Fonda, Youth
9. Kristen Stewart, Clouds of Sils Maria
10. Julie Walters, Brooklyn
Best Supporting Actor
1. Sylvester Stallone, Creed
2. Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies
3. Christian Bale, The Big Short
4. Idris Elba, Beasts of No Nation
5. Michael Shannon, 99 Homes
6. Benicio Del Toro, Sicario
7. Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight
8. Jacob Tremblay, Room
9. Paul Dano, Love & Mercy
10. Michael Keaton, Spotlight
Best Original Screenplay
1. Spotlight
2. Inside Out
3. The Hateful Eight
4. Bridge of Spies
5. Ex Machina
6. Sicario
7. Straight Outta Compton
8. Trainwreck
9. Joy
10. 99 Homes
Best Adapted Screenplay
1. The Big Short
2. Steve Jobs
3. The Martian
4. Carol
5. Room
6. Brooklyn
7. The Revenant
8. Trumbo
9. Anomalisa
10. Mad Max: Fury Road
Best Film Editing
1. The Big Short
2. Mad Max: Fury Road
3. The Revenant
4. The Martian
5. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
6. Sicario
7. Bridge of Spies
8. Spotlight
9. Steve Jobs
10. Room
Best Cinematography
1. The Revenant
2. Mad Max: Fury Road
3. Sicario
4. Carol
5. The Hateful Eight
6. Bridge of Spies
7. The Martian
8. Room
9. Son of Saul
10. The Assassin
Best Costume Design
1. Carol
2. Cinderella
3. Brooklyn
4. Mad Max: Fury Road
5. The Danish Girl
6. Trumbo
7. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
8. Crimson Peak
9. The Revenant
10. The Hateful Eight
Best Production Design
1. Mad Max: Fury Road
2. Carol
3. The Martian
4. Bridge of Spies
5. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
6. The Revenant
7. Brooklyn
8. The Danish Girl
9. Crimson Peak
10. Cinderella
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
1. Mad Max: Fury Road
2. The Revenant
3. Black Mass
4. Mr. Holmes
5. Legend
6. The 100 Year Old Man Who Climbed Out the Window and Disappeared
7. Concussion
Best Original Score
1. The Hateful Eight
2. Sicario
3. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
4. Carol
5. The Danish Girl
6. Bridge of Spies
7. Spotlight
8. Steve Jobs
9. Mad Max: Fury Road
10. Inside Out
Best Original Song
1. "Til It Happens to You", The Hunting Grounds
2. "See You Again", Furious 7
3. "Writing's On the Wall", Spectre
4. "Simple Song #3", Youth
5. "I'll See You In My Dreams", I'll See You In My Dreams
I have no idea how to rank the rest.
Best Sound Mixing
1. Mad Max: Fury Road
2. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
3. The Revenant
4. Bridge of Spies
5. The Martian
6. The Hateful Eight
7. Sicario
8. Spectre
9. Jurassic World
10. Straight Outta Compton
Best Sound Editing
1. Mad Max: Fury Road
2. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
3. The Revenant
4. The Martian
5. The Hateful Eight
6. Bridge of Spies
7. Sicario
8. Jurassic World
9. Spectre
10. Inside Out
Best Visual Effects
1. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
2. Mad Max: Fury Road
3. The Revenant
4. The Martian
5. The Walk
6. Jurassic World
7. Ex Machina
8. Ant-Man
9. Avengers: Age of Ultron
10. Tomorrowland
Best Foreign Language Film
1. Son of Saul
2. Mustang
3. Labyrinth of Lies
4. Viva
5. Theeb
6. The Brand New Testament
7. The Fencer
8. A War
9. Embrace of the Serpent
Best Animated Feature
1. Inside Out
2. Anomalisa
3. The Peanuts Movie
4. Shaun the Sheep Movie
5. The Good Dinosaur
6. The Prophet
7. Minions
8. Boy and the World
9. When Marnie Was There
10. Home
Best Documentary Feature
1. Amy
2. The Look of Silence
Other possibilities:
He Named Me Malala
Where to Invade Next
Meru
Heart of a Dog
Going Clear: Scientology and the Prison of Belief
1. The Revenant
2. Spotlight
3. The Big Short
4. The Martian
5. Mad Max: Fury Road
6. Brooklyn
7. Bridge of Spies
8. Carol
9. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
10. Inside Out
11. Straight Outta Compton
12. Room
13. Sicario
14. Trumbo
15. The Hateful Eight
Best Director
1. Alejandro G. Iñárritu, The Revenant
2. Tom McCarthy, Spotlight
3. Ridley Scott, The Martian
4. George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road
5. Adam McKay, The Big Short
6. Todd Haynes, Carol
7. Steven Spielberg, Bridge of Spies
8. Denis Villeneuve, Sicario
9. Quentin Tarantino, The Hateful Eight
10. John Crowley, Brooklyn
Best Actress
1. Brie Larson, Room
2. Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn
3. Cate Blanchett, Carol
4. Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
5. Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years
6. Jennifer Lawrence, Joy
7. Rooney Mara, Carol
8. Carey Mulligan, Suffragette
9. Maggie Smith, The Lady in the Van
10. Lily Tomlin, Grandma
Best Actor
1. Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
2. Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
3. Bryan Cranston, Trumbo
4. Matt Damon, The Martian
5. Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl
6. Johnny Depp, Black Mass
7. Michael B. Jordan, Creed
8. Will Smith, Concussion
9. Steve Carell, The Big Short
10. Tom Hanks, Bridge of Spies
Best Supporting Actress
1. Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs
2. Alicia Vikander, Ex Machina
3. Rooney Mara, Carol
4. Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight
5. Helen Mirren, Trumbo
6. Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
7. Rachel McAdams, Spotlight
8. Jane Fonda, Youth
9. Kristen Stewart, Clouds of Sils Maria
10. Julie Walters, Brooklyn
Best Supporting Actor
1. Sylvester Stallone, Creed
2. Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies
3. Christian Bale, The Big Short
4. Idris Elba, Beasts of No Nation
5. Michael Shannon, 99 Homes
6. Benicio Del Toro, Sicario
7. Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight
8. Jacob Tremblay, Room
9. Paul Dano, Love & Mercy
10. Michael Keaton, Spotlight
Best Original Screenplay
1. Spotlight
2. Inside Out
3. The Hateful Eight
4. Bridge of Spies
5. Ex Machina
6. Sicario
7. Straight Outta Compton
8. Trainwreck
9. Joy
10. 99 Homes
Best Adapted Screenplay
1. The Big Short
2. Steve Jobs
3. The Martian
4. Carol
5. Room
6. Brooklyn
7. The Revenant
8. Trumbo
9. Anomalisa
10. Mad Max: Fury Road
Best Film Editing
1. The Big Short
2. Mad Max: Fury Road
3. The Revenant
4. The Martian
5. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
6. Sicario
7. Bridge of Spies
8. Spotlight
9. Steve Jobs
10. Room
Best Cinematography
1. The Revenant
2. Mad Max: Fury Road
3. Sicario
4. Carol
5. The Hateful Eight
6. Bridge of Spies
7. The Martian
8. Room
9. Son of Saul
10. The Assassin
Best Costume Design
1. Carol
2. Cinderella
3. Brooklyn
4. Mad Max: Fury Road
5. The Danish Girl
6. Trumbo
7. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
8. Crimson Peak
9. The Revenant
10. The Hateful Eight
Best Production Design
1. Mad Max: Fury Road
2. Carol
3. The Martian
4. Bridge of Spies
5. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
6. The Revenant
7. Brooklyn
8. The Danish Girl
9. Crimson Peak
10. Cinderella
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
1. Mad Max: Fury Road
2. The Revenant
3. Black Mass
4. Mr. Holmes
5. Legend
6. The 100 Year Old Man Who Climbed Out the Window and Disappeared
7. Concussion
Best Original Score
1. The Hateful Eight
2. Sicario
3. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
4. Carol
5. The Danish Girl
6. Bridge of Spies
7. Spotlight
8. Steve Jobs
9. Mad Max: Fury Road
10. Inside Out
Best Original Song
1. "Til It Happens to You", The Hunting Grounds
2. "See You Again", Furious 7
3. "Writing's On the Wall", Spectre
4. "Simple Song #3", Youth
5. "I'll See You In My Dreams", I'll See You In My Dreams
I have no idea how to rank the rest.
Best Sound Mixing
1. Mad Max: Fury Road
2. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
3. The Revenant
4. Bridge of Spies
5. The Martian
6. The Hateful Eight
7. Sicario
8. Spectre
9. Jurassic World
10. Straight Outta Compton
Best Sound Editing
1. Mad Max: Fury Road
2. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
3. The Revenant
4. The Martian
5. The Hateful Eight
6. Bridge of Spies
7. Sicario
8. Jurassic World
9. Spectre
10. Inside Out
Best Visual Effects
1. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
2. Mad Max: Fury Road
3. The Revenant
4. The Martian
5. The Walk
6. Jurassic World
7. Ex Machina
8. Ant-Man
9. Avengers: Age of Ultron
10. Tomorrowland
Best Foreign Language Film
1. Son of Saul
2. Mustang
3. Labyrinth of Lies
4. Viva
5. Theeb
6. The Brand New Testament
7. The Fencer
8. A War
9. Embrace of the Serpent
Best Animated Feature
1. Inside Out
2. Anomalisa
3. The Peanuts Movie
4. Shaun the Sheep Movie
5. The Good Dinosaur
6. The Prophet
7. Minions
8. Boy and the World
9. When Marnie Was There
10. Home
Best Documentary Feature
1. Amy
2. The Look of Silence
Other possibilities:
He Named Me Malala
Where to Invade Next
Meru
Heart of a Dog
Going Clear: Scientology and the Prison of Belief
Thursday, February 19, 2015
Final Oscar Predictions 2015
I'm very excited for this year, because there are so many categories in which there are tight races --especially Picture, Director and Actor. Has there been a year with so many nail biters? I don't recall one. With the last few years being a bit predictable, I'm glad to see this year being really competitive.
Best Picture
Take your pick. Toss a coin. Go for the guild winner, or the Globe/BAFTA winner. Which one will come out on top?
Will Win: Birdman
Could Win: Boyhood
Directing
Or will we see yet another split this year?
Will Win: Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Birdman
Could Win: Richard Linklater, Boyhood
Actress
Will Win: Julianne Moore, Still Alice
Could Win: Ha! Yeah, right!
Actor
I think Redmayne, SAG winner, will come out on top, but people are making cases for Keaton and even Cooper winning.
Will Win: Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything
Could Win: Michael Keaton, Birdman
Dark Horse: Bradley Cooper, American Sniper
Supporting Actress
Some are suggesting that Stone will upset here. I think that's unlikely.
Will Win: Patricia Arquette, Boyhood
Could Win: Emma Stone, Birdman
Supporting Actor
One of the easiest categories of the night, or so it seems.
Will Win: J.K. Simmons, Whiplash
Dark Horse: Edward Norton, Birdman
Original Screenplay
Another tough category, a toss-up between two.
Will Win: Birdman
Could Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Adapted Screenplay
Will Win: The Imitation Game
Could Win: Whiplash
Cinematography
Will Win: Birdman
Could Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Editing
Both are technical achievements, but the 12-year gimmick is hard to deny, even if Whiplash's crisp, precise, surgical editing is also hard to deny.
Will Win: Boyhood
Could Win: Whiplash
Production Design
Will Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Could Win: Mr. Turner
Costume Design
Will Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Could Win: Into the Woods
Hair and Makeup
I'm at a loss here. I could any of the three potentially winning... but I'll spring for Budapest, as it seems to be the under-the-line juggernaut this year. Maybe voters will just go: "tick! tick! tick!"
Will Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Could Win: Foxcatcher
Visual Effects
Will Win: Interstellar
Could Win: Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
Sound Mixing
Another tough category, but I'm going for the guild winner.
Will Win: Birdman
Could Win: Whiplash or American Sniper
Sound Editing
Will this be where American Sniper gets recognition? It's looking likely.
Will Win: American Sniper
Could Win: Birdman
Original Score
I'm springing for Jóhannson, because I've been a fan of his for a while now, but the wise money is probably on double-nominee Desplat... who may actually split his vote.
Will Win: The Theory of Everything
Could Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Original Song
Everyone is guessing "Glory", but their backups are wildly split. I'm guessing that The LEGO Movie may actually be pretty strong here.
Will Win: "Glory" from Selma
Could Win: "Everything is Awesome" from The LEGO Movie
Documentary Feature
Will Win: CITIZENFOUR
Could Win: Virunga
Foreign Language
Arguments have been made for ANY of the five winning. I'm really not sure.
Will Win: Leviathan
Could Win: Ida
Animated Feature
Without The LEGO Movie, it became wide open, but Dragon has been dominating lately.
Will Win: How to Train Your Dragon 2
Could Win: Big Hero 6
Live Action Short
Always the hardest to predict. Remember, voters must have seen all five in order to vote.
Will Win: Aya
Could Win: Boogaloo and Graham
Documentary Short
Will Win: Joanna
Could Win: Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1
Animated Short
I'm hoping that my favourite of the bunch wins.
Will Win: Feast
Could Win: The Bigger Picture
Best Picture
Take your pick. Toss a coin. Go for the guild winner, or the Globe/BAFTA winner. Which one will come out on top?
Will Win: Birdman
Could Win: Boyhood
Directing
Or will we see yet another split this year?
Will Win: Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Birdman
Could Win: Richard Linklater, Boyhood
Actress
Will Win: Julianne Moore, Still Alice
Could Win: Ha! Yeah, right!
Actor
I think Redmayne, SAG winner, will come out on top, but people are making cases for Keaton and even Cooper winning.
Will Win: Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything
Could Win: Michael Keaton, Birdman
Dark Horse: Bradley Cooper, American Sniper
Supporting Actress
Some are suggesting that Stone will upset here. I think that's unlikely.
Will Win: Patricia Arquette, Boyhood
Could Win: Emma Stone, Birdman
Supporting Actor
One of the easiest categories of the night, or so it seems.
Will Win: J.K. Simmons, Whiplash
Dark Horse: Edward Norton, Birdman
Original Screenplay
Another tough category, a toss-up between two.
Will Win: Birdman
Could Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Adapted Screenplay
Will Win: The Imitation Game
Could Win: Whiplash
Cinematography
Will Win: Birdman
Could Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Editing
Both are technical achievements, but the 12-year gimmick is hard to deny, even if Whiplash's crisp, precise, surgical editing is also hard to deny.
Will Win: Boyhood
Could Win: Whiplash
Production Design
Will Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Could Win: Mr. Turner
Costume Design
Will Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Could Win: Into the Woods
Hair and Makeup
I'm at a loss here. I could any of the three potentially winning... but I'll spring for Budapest, as it seems to be the under-the-line juggernaut this year. Maybe voters will just go: "tick! tick! tick!"
Will Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Could Win: Foxcatcher
Visual Effects
Will Win: Interstellar
Could Win: Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
Sound Mixing
Another tough category, but I'm going for the guild winner.
Will Win: Birdman
Could Win: Whiplash or American Sniper
Sound Editing
Will this be where American Sniper gets recognition? It's looking likely.
Will Win: American Sniper
Could Win: Birdman
Original Score
I'm springing for Jóhannson, because I've been a fan of his for a while now, but the wise money is probably on double-nominee Desplat... who may actually split his vote.
Will Win: The Theory of Everything
Could Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Original Song
Everyone is guessing "Glory", but their backups are wildly split. I'm guessing that The LEGO Movie may actually be pretty strong here.
Will Win: "Glory" from Selma
Could Win: "Everything is Awesome" from The LEGO Movie
Documentary Feature
Will Win: CITIZENFOUR
Could Win: Virunga
Foreign Language
Arguments have been made for ANY of the five winning. I'm really not sure.
Will Win: Leviathan
Could Win: Ida
Animated Feature
Without The LEGO Movie, it became wide open, but Dragon has been dominating lately.
Will Win: How to Train Your Dragon 2
Could Win: Big Hero 6
Live Action Short
Always the hardest to predict. Remember, voters must have seen all five in order to vote.
Will Win: Aya
Could Win: Boogaloo and Graham
Documentary Short
Will Win: Joanna
Could Win: Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1
Animated Short
I'm hoping that my favourite of the bunch wins.
Will Win: Feast
Could Win: The Bigger Picture
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