Oscar Nominations Predictions 2018

Best Picture
So what's it gonna be? In a wildly unpredictable year for frontrunners, we have also settled down on around a dozen films that seem to be 'in the running' for multiple awards. I don't think we're going to get ten nominees this year, but I'm very confident about this top 6.

1. The Shape of Water
2. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
3. Lady Bird
4. Get Out
5. Dunkirk
6. Call Me by Your Name
7. The Post
8. The Florida Project
9. I, Tonya
10. Mudbound
11. The Big Sick
12. Darkest Hour
13. Blade Runner 2049
14. Phantom Thread
15. Molly's Game
16. Wonder Woman
17. A Ghost Story
18. Coco
19. The Disaster Artist
20. mother!

Director
Who's gonna be the directors' surprise this year? This makes me giggle a bit, given my well-known dislike for him, but I think it's going to be Nolan. I just don't see the industry getting excited over Dunkirk, and if he's missed before --multiple times-- I see the argument that he'll be the big snub. But I've seen people suggest Peele will be the man out. So who will replace them? My feeling is that Guadagnino's film has a lot of passionate supporters, and that Baker will appeal to the directors' branch. I'm expecting one of them to make it in. Really, the only three I feel most sure about are del Toro, Gerwig, and McDonagh.

1. Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water
2. Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird
3. Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
4. Jordan Peele, Get Out
5. Christoper Nolan, Dunkirk
6. Luca Guadagnino, Call Me by Your Name
7. Sean Baker, The Florida Project
8. Steven Spielberg, The Post
9. Dee Rees, Mudbound
10. Denis Villeneuve, Blade Runner 2049

Actress
A fantastic year for actresses, many have settled on this top 5.
1. Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
2. Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water
3. Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird
4. Margot Robbie, I, Tonya
5. Meryl Streep, The Post
6. Jessica Chastain, Molly's Game
7. Judi Dench, Victoria & Abdul
8. Annette Bening, Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool
9. Michelle Williams, All the Money in the World
10. Emma Stone, Battle of the Sexes

Actor
Have the various scandals impacted the race, especially for Franco? Probably not, given it broke only two days before nominees were due. Have enough voters seen Phantom Thread to secure the legendary Daniel Day-Lewis what is potentially his final Oscar nomination? Steve Carell's chances are slim anyways, but he has been variously pushed as both lead and supporting. And has Hollywood forgotten McAvoy's celebrated turn in that early-year film, Split?
1. Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
2. Timothée Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name
3. Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out
4. Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread
5. James Franco, The Disaster Artist
6. Tom Hanks, The Post
7. Denzel Washington, Roman Israel, Esq.
8. Jake Gyllenhaal, Stronger
9. Steve Carell, Battle of the Sexes
10. James McAvoy, Split

Supporting Actress
I think this is the most unstable acting category, with any of the top 7 making it in -- but Janney and Metcalf are locks.
1. Alison Janney, I, Tonya
2. Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird
3. Mary J. Blige, Mudbound
4. Hong Chau, Downsizing
5. Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water
6. Holly Hunter, The Big Sick
7. Tiffany Hadish, Girls' Trip
8. Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread
9. Catherine Keener, Get Out
10. Michelle Pfeiffer, mother!

Supporting Actor
Dafoe and Rockwell have been sweeping the season, with plenty of nom's for Harrelson, too. Hammer looks to be in, and many are suggesting Jenkins, too -- but I think Plummer will make the nomination given the circumstances surrounding the film. After the top 8, it becomes more of a crapshoot. Can you imagine Ray Romano, Oscar nominee?
1. Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
2. Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
3. Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
4. Armie Hammer, Call Me by Your Name
5. Christopher Plummer, All the Money in the World
6. Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water
7. Patrick Stewart, Logan
8. Michael Stuhlbarg, Call Me by Your Name
9. Ray Romano, The Big Sick
10. Michael Shannon, The Shape of Water

Adapted Screenplay
Looks like this one's pretty locked down, with Wonder and Logan battling it out for fifth. Yes, that would make the first superhero film nominated for a writing Oscar.
1. Call Me by Your Name
2. The Disaster Artist
3. Molly's Game
4. Mudbound
5. Wonder
6. Logan
7. The Lost City of Z
8. Wonder Woman
9. Blade Runner 2049
10. Wonderstruck

Original Screenplay
In a strange year, there are many more in play for Original rather than Adapted screenplay. I'm so unsure, I upped it to eleven possibilities. I think Lady Bird and Three Billboards are actually the safest, and despite putting it as first (I think there's plenty of passion out there), I wouldn't be shocked if Get Out misses the nomination.
1. Get Out
2. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
3. Lady Bird
4. The Shape of Water
5. I, Tonya
6. The Big Sick
7. Phantom Thread
8. The Post
9. Dunkirk
10. The Florida Project
11. Darkest Hour

Cinematography
Can Roger Deakins FINALLY win his Oscar, please? Oh ho ho!, says the Three Amigo.
1. Blade Runner 2049
2. The Shape of Water
3. Dunkirk
4. Mudbound
5. Darkest Hour
6. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
7. Call Me by Your Name
8. The Post
9. Phantom Thread
10. The Florida Project

Editing
1. Dunkirk
2. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
3. Baby Driver
4. The Shape of Water
5. Blade Runner 2049
6. I, Tonya
7. Get Out
8. The Post
9. Lady Bird
10. Molly's Game

Production Design
1. The Shape of Water
2. Blade Runner 2049
3. Beauty and the Beast
4. The Post
5. Darkest Hour
6. Dunkirk
7. Phantom Thread
8. Murder on the Orient Express
9. Call Me by Your Name
10. Mudbound

Costume Design
1. Phantom Thread
2. Beauty and the Beast
3. The Shape of Water
4. Murder on the Orient Express
5. I, Tonya
6. The Greatest Showman
7. Darkest Hour
8. The Post
9. Blade Runner 2049
10. Wonder Woman

Hairstyling and Makeup
1. Darkest Hour
2. Wonder
3. I, Tonya
4. Bright
5. Guardians of the Galaxy, vol. 2
6. Victoria & Abdul
7. Ghost in the Shell

Original Score
1. The Shape of Water
2. Dunkirk
3. The Post
4. Phantom Thread
5. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
6. Darkest Hour
7. Blade Runner 2049
8. Victoria & Abdul
9. Beauty and the Beast
10. The Greatest Showman

Original Song
1. "Remember Me", Coco
2. "Evermore", Beauty and the Beast
3. "This is Me", The Greatest Showman
4. "Mystery of Love", Call Me by Your Name
5. "Mighty River", Mudbound
6. "Stand Up for Something", Marshall
7. "Prayers for this World", Cries from Syria
8. "Never Forget", Murder on the Orient Express
9. "I Don't Wanna Live Forever", Fifty Shades Darker
10. "Visions of Gideon", Call Me by Your Name

Sound Mixing
1. Dunkirk
2. The Shape of Water
3. Blade Runner 2049
4. Baby Driver
5. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
6. Wonder Woman
7. The Greatest Showman
8. Coco
9. Life
10. Get Out

Sound Editing
1. Dunkirk
2. The Shape of Water
3. Blade Runner 2049
4. Baby Driver
5. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
6. War for the Planet of the Apes
7. Wonder Woman
8. Get Out
9. Life
10. Only the Brave

Visual Effects
1. War for the Planet of the Apes
2. Blade Runner 2049
3. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
4. Okja
5. Dunkirk
6. The Shape of Water
7. Kong: Skull Island
8. Alien: Covenant
9. Guardians of the Galaxy, vol. 2
10. Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets

Foreign Language
1. In the Fade
2. A Fantastic Woman
3. Loveless
4. The Insult
5. The Square
6. Foxtrot
7. The Wound
8. On Body and Soul
9. Felicite

Animated Feature
1. Coco
2. The Breadwinner
3. Loving Vincent
4. The LEGO Batman Movie
5. Despicable Me 3
6. The Boss Baby
7. Cars 3
8. Captain Underpants: The First Epic Movie
9. Mary and the Witch's Flower
10. The Girl Without Hands

Documentary Feature
1. City of Ghosts
2. Jane
3. Faces Places
4. Chasing Coral
5. Icarus
6. Strong Island
7. LA 92
8. Last Men in Aleppo
9. Human Flow
10. An Inconvenient Sequel


SCOREBOARD
The Shape of Water - 11
Dunkirk - 8
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri - 8
Blade Runner 2049 - 6
I, Tonya - 6
Lady Bird - 5
Mudbound - 5
Call Me by Your Name - 4
Darkest Hour - 4
Get Out - 4
The Post - 4
Beauty and the Beast - 3
Phantom Thread - 3
Star Wars: The Last Jedi - 3
Baby Driver - 2
Coco - 2
The Disaster Artist - 2
The Florida Project - 2
Wonder - 2

Oscar Predictions 2017

This should be a cakewalk for La La Land this year, as I'm expecting it to sweep the categories. Picture, Director and Actress are almost givens, as is Score, Song and Sound Mixing. In Original Screenplay, it's a toss-up between the film and Lonergan's Manchester by the Sea; will the Academy want to award this indie darling here, seeing that Denzel Washington looks to beat the previously anointed Casey Affleck? In the craft categories, Cinematography is La La Land's best bet, with Hacksaw Ridge giving it competition for Editing. In Production Design, I'm still expecting it to win despite the film's rather modest design --but remember, it's Best design, not Most design, and I'm quite the cheerleader for the film. But if voters want to award something flashier, maybe it'll be Fantastic Beasts, or even Arrival. Speaking of a category in which something flashier usually wins, I'm expecting La La Land to lose in the category of Costume Design, bowing out to Jackie. So that leaves Sound Editing... and let's be honest, it's somewhat miraculous it was even nominated in this category, so I'm expecting Hacksaw Ridge to pick up this award.

So what does that leave us with? Viola Davis has been sweeping the season with Fences, and for good reason: she's excellent in it, and she's overdue for an award after losing Best Actress to Meryl Streep a few years ago. Supporting Actor is a curious category, as many are expecting Mahershala Ali to pick up the award for Moonlight --but at the BAFTAs and the Globes, he lost to Dev Patel and (the not nominated) Aaron Taylor-Johnson. If there's a snub-surprise on Sunday night, I'm expecting it to be here for Patel. Still, I'm predicting Ali to get one of Moonlight's two awards, the other one being Adapted Screenplay. But if there's an award that the beautiful Moonlight I feel doesn't deserve, it's for its screenplay. Arrival would be a better choice, and will the Academy agree with me? Probably not. (For the record, Moonlight is a masterpiece of editing, cinematography and acting, but I think its screenplay is a bit... well, thin.) But I digress.

Makeup and Hairstyling should go to Star Trek Beyond, the second win in the category for the rebooted series. Visual effects will probably go The Jungle Book, but I feel that this is a category ripe for a surprise this year. For the three other feature categories, I'm going for Zootopia, OJ: Made in America and not Toni Erdmann, but The Salesman. Just a hunch that a lot of other predictors are also making, although don't be surprised if A Man Called Ove picks it up. (Erdmann is probably just too weird for the voters in this category.) And that leaves the shorts. Always a crapshoot. So let's go with The White Helmets over Joe's Violin in Doc Short, because, hey, why not. Animated Short is widely expected to go for Piper, and I agree. And finally, Live Action Short has prognosticators all over the place, as it usually does, but the lead is probably for Ennemis Interieurs. So let's go with that.

So that makes me believe that La La Land will win the night with 10 awards. Wow!

Best Picture
Will Win: La La Land
If Hell Freezes Over: Moonlight

Director
Will Win: Damien Chazelle, La La Land
If Hell Freezes Over: Barry Jenkins, Moonlight

Actress
Will Win: Emma Stone, La La Land
Might Win: Isabelle Huppert, Elle

Actor
Will Win: Denzel Washington, Fences
Might Win: Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea

Supporting Actress
Will Win: Viola Davis, Fences
Shocker: Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea

Supporting Actor
Will Win: Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
Might Win: Dev Patel, Lion

Original Screenplay
Will Win: La La Land
Might Win: Manchester by the Sea

Adapted Screenplay
Will Win: Moonlight
Might Win: Arrival

Editing
Will Win: La La Land
Might Win: Hacksaw Ridge

Cinematography
Will Win: La La Land
Might Win: Arrival

Production Design
Will Win: La La Land
Might Win: Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them

Costume Design
Will Win: Jackie
Might Win: La La Land

Makeup and Hairstyling
Will Win: Star Trek Beyond
Might Win: A Man Called Ove

Original Score
Will Win: La La Land
If Hell Freezes Over: Moonlight

Original Song
Will Win: "City of Stars", La La Land
Might Win: "Audition (The Fools Who Dream)", La La Land

Sound Mixing
Will Win: La La Land
Might Win: Hacksaw Ridge
Dark Horse: Arrival

Sound Editing
Will Win: Hacksaw Ridge
Might Win: Arrival
If There Really is a Sweep Goin' On: La La Land

Visual Effects
Will Win: The Jungle Book
Might Win: Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

Animated Feature
Will Win: Zootopia
Might Win: Kubo and the Two Strings

Foreign Language Feature
Will Win: The Salesman
Might Win: A Man Called Ove

Documentary Feature
Will Win: OJ: Made in America
Might Win: 13th

Animated Short
Will Win: Piper
Might Win: Pearl

Live Action Short
Will Win: Ennemis Interieurs
Might Win: Timecode
But Really, Who Knows?: La Femme et le TGV

Documentary Short
Will Win: The White Helmets
Might Win: Joe's Violin

Oscar Nominations Reaction 2017

89/107

Definitely one of my better years! The 'snubs' here are Amy Adams for Arrival missing out, maybe Hugh Grant from Florence Foster Jenkins, and in my mind, Rogue One missing out the Sound Editing. But overall, not too many surprises. We'll have to get used to Passengers being more nominated than Silence, though.

Best Picture

1. La La Land
2. Moonlight
3. Manchester by the Sea
4. Arrival
5. Lion
6. Hidden Figures
7. Fences
8. Hacksaw Ridge
9. Hell or High Water

9/9

Director

1. Damien Chazelle, La La Land
2. Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
3. Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea
4. Denis Villeneuve, Arrival
6. Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge

4/5

Actress

1. Emma Stone, La La Land
2. Natalie Portman, Jackie
4. Isabelle Huppert, Elle
5. Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins
7. Ruth Negga, Loving

4/5

Actor

1. Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
2. Denzel Washington, Fences
3. Ryan Gosling, La La Land
4. Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic
5. Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge
(7. Tom Hanks, Sully was listed as the 6th nomination on the website!)

5/5

Supporting Actress

1. Viola Davis, Fences
2. Michelle Williams, Manchester bu the Sea
3. Naomie Harris, Moonlight
4. Nicole Kidman, Lion
5. Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures

5/5

Supporting Actor

1. Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
2. Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water
3. Dev Patel, Lion
5. Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea
9. Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals

4/5

Adapted Screenplay

1. Moonlight
2. Arrival
3. Hidden Figures
4. Fences
5. Lion

5/5

Original Screenplay

1. La La Land
2. Manchester by the Sea
3. Hell or High Water
4. The Lobster
10. 20th Century Women

4/5

Editing
1. La La Land
2. Arrival
3. Moonlight
4. Hacksaw Ridge
6. Hell or High Water

4/5

Cinematography
1. La La Land
2. Arrival
3. Moonlight
4. Silence
5. Lion

5/5

Production Design
1. La La Land
2. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
4. Hail, Caesar!
5. Arrival
8. Passengers

4/5

Costume Design
1. Jackie
2. La La Land
3. Florence Foster Jenkins
4. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
6. Allied

4/5

Makeup and Hairstyling
2. Star Trek Beyond
4. A Man Called Ove
7. Suicide Squad

1/3

Original Score
1. La La Land
2. Lion
3. Moonlight
4. Jackie
-. Passengers

4/5

Original Song
1. "City of Stars", La La Land
2. "Audition (The Fools Who Dream)", La La Land
4. "How Far I'll Go", Moana
-. "Can't Stop The Feeling", Trolls
-. "The Empty Chair", JimL The James Foley Story

3/5

Sound Mixing
1. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
2. La La Land
3. Hacksaw Ridge
5. Arrival
8. 13 Hours

4/5

Sound Editing

2. Hacksaw Ridge
3. Arrival
4. Deepwater Horizon
5. La La Land
9. Sully

4/5

Visual Effects
1. The Jungle Book
2. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
3. Deepwater Horizon
5. Doctor Strange
6. Kubo and the Two Strings

4/5

Animated Feature
1. Zootopia
2. Moana
3. Kubo and the Two Strings
4. The Red Turtle
5. My Life as a Zucchini

5/5

Foreign Language
Despite the critical thrashing, I have a feeling Dolan's film is getting in.
1. Toni Erdmann (Germany)
2. A Man Called Ove (Sweden)
3. The Salesman (Iran)
4. Land of Mine (Denmark)
8. Tanna (Australia)

4/5

Documentary Feature
1. OJ: Made in America
2. 13th
3. I Am Not Your Negro
6. Fire at Sea
7. Life, Animated

3/5

TALLIES
La La Land - 14
Arrival - 8
Moonlight - 8
Manchester by the Sea - 6
Lion - 6
Hacksaw Ridge - 6
Fences - 4
Hell or High Water - 4
Jackie - 3
Hidden Figures - 3
Florence Foster Jenkins - 2
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story - 2
Deepwater Horizon - 2
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them - 2
Moana - 2
Kubo and the Two Strings - 2
Passengers - 2
Nocturnal Animals - 1

Oscar Nominations Predictions 2017

Best Picture

1. La La Land
2. Moonlight
3. Manchester by the Sea
4. Arrival
5. Lion
6. Hidden Figures
7. Fences
8. Hacksaw Ridge
9. Hell or High Water
10. Nocturnal Animals
11. Loving
12. Silence
13. Jackie
14. Florence Foster Jenkins
15. Sully
16. I, Daniel Blake
17. Deadpool
18. 20th Century Women
19. Captain Fantastic
20. Patriots Day

Director

1. Damien Chazelle, La La Land
2. Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
3. Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea
4. Denis Villeneuve, Arrival
5. Garth Davis, Lion
6. Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge
7. David Mackenzie, Hell or High Water
8. Martin Scorsese, Silence
9. Tom Ford, Nocturnal Animals
10. Denzel Washington, Fences

Actress
A very tight race this year.

1. Emma Stone, La La Land
2. Natalie Portman, Jackie
3. Amy Adams, Arrival
4. Isabelle Huppert, Elle
5. Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins
6. Annette Bening, 20th Century Women
7. Ruth Negga, Loving
8. Taraji P. Henson, Hidden Figures
9. Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane
10. Emily Blunt, The Girl on the Train

Actor
The top 6 seem to be the most likely by a long shot.

1. Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
2. Denzel Washington, Fences
3. Ryan Gosling, La La Land
4. Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic
5. Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge
6. Joel Edgerton, Loving
7. Tom Hanks, Sully
8. Jake Gyllenhaal, Nocturnal Animals
9. Adam Driver, Paterson
10. Andrew Garfield, Silence

Supporting Actress
Janelle or Octavia for the fifth spot? Maybe both?

1. Viola Davis, Fences
2. Michelle Williams, Manchester bu the Sea
3. Naomie Harris, Moonlight
4. Nicole Kidman, Lion
5. Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures
6. Janelle Monaé, Hidden Figures
7. Greta Gerwig, 20th Century Women
8. Hayley Squires, I, Daniel Blake
9. Lily Gladstone, Certain Women

Supporting Actor

1. Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
2. Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water
3. Dev Patel, Lion
4. Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins
5. Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea
6. Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Nocturnal Animals
7. Kevin Costner, Hidden Figures
8. Issey Ogata, Silence
9. Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals
10. Ben Foster, Hell or High Water

Adapted Screenplay

1. Moonlight
2. Arrival
3. Hidden Figures
4. Fences
5. Lion
6. Nocturnal Animals
7. Hacksaw Ridge
8. Silence
9. Loving
10. Deadpool

Original Screenplay

1. La La Land
2. Manchester by the Sea
3. Hell or High Water
4. The Lobster
5. Jackie
6. I, Daniel Blake
7. Captain Fantastic
8. Zootopia
9. Toni Erdmann
10. 20th Century Women

Editing
1. La La Land
2. Arrival
3. Moonlight
4. Hacksaw Ridge
5. Manchester by the Sea
6. Hell or High Water
7. Nocturnal Animals
8. Lion
9. Silence
10. Sully

Cinematography
1. La La Land
2. Arrival
3. Moonlight
4. Silence
5. Lion
6. Nocturnal Animals
7. Hell or High Water
8. Jackie
9. Hail, Caesar!
10. Live by Night

Production Design
1. La La Land
2. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
3. Jackie
4. Hail, Caesar!
5. Arrival
6. Silence
7. Nocturnal Animals
8. Passengers
9. Live by Night
10. Hacksaw Ridge

Costume Design
1. Jackie
2. La La Land
3. Florence Foster Jenkins
4. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
5. The Dressmaker
6. Allied
7. Hail, Caesar!
8. Hidden Figures
9. Live by Night
10. Love & Friendship

Makeup and Hairstyling
1. Florence Foster Jenkins
2. Star Trek Beyond
3. Deadpool
4. A Man Called Ove
5. The Dressmaker
6. Hail, Caesar!
7. The Dressmaker

Original Score
1. La La Land
2. Lion
3. Moonlight
4. Jackie
5. Nocturnal Animals
6. Hidden Figures
7. Hacksaw Ridge
8. The BFG
9. Florence Foster Jenkins
10. Hell or High Water

Original Song
1. "City of Stars", La La Land
2. "Audition (The Fools Who Dream)", La La Land
3. "Runnin'", Hidden Figures
4. "How Far I'll Go", Moana
5. "Faith", Sing
6. And as per usual, beyond the supposed frontrunners, I have no idea.

Sound Mixing
1. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
2. La La Land
3. Hacksaw Ridge
4. Deepwater Horizon
5. Arrival
6. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
7. Patriots Day
8. 13 Hours
9. The Jungle Book
10. Sully

Sound Editing
Apparently, a musical has never been nominated here. What the heck, let's take a chance and guess La La Land for the fifth position!

1. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
2. Hacksaw Ridge
3. Arrival
4. Deepwater Horizon
5. La La Land
6. Patriots Day
7. 13 Hours
8. The Jungle Book
9. Sully
10. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them

Visual Effects
1. The Jungle Book
2. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
3. Deepwater Horizon
4. Arrival
5. Doctor Strange
6. Kubo and the Two Strings
7. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
8. Passengers
9. Captain America: Civil War
10. The BFG

Animated Feature
1. Zootopia
2. Moana
3. Kubo and the Two Strings
4. The Red Turtle
5. My Life as a Zucchini
6. Sing
7. Finding Dory
8. Miss Hokusai
9. The Little Prince
10. Sausage Party

Foreign Language
Despite the critical thrashing, I have a feeling Dolan's film is getting in.
1. Toni Erdmann (Germany)
2. A Man Called Ove (Sweden)
3. The Salesman (Iran)
4. Land of Mine (Denmark)
5. It's Only the End of the World (Canada)
6. My Life as a Zucchini (Switzerland)
7. Paradise (Russia)
8. Tanna (Australia)
9. The King's Choice (Norway)

Documentary Feature
1. OJ: Made in America
2. 13th
3. I Am Not Your Negro
4. Weiner
5. The Eagle Huntress
6. Fire at Sea
7. Life, Animated
8. Gleason
9. The Ivory Game
10. Tower

TALLIES
La La Land - 14
Arrival - 10
Moonlight - 8
Manchester by the Sea - 7
Lion - 7
Hacksaw Ridge - 5
Jackie - 5
Hidden Figures - 4
Fences - 4
Florence Foster Jenkins - 4
Hell or High Water - 3
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story - 3
Deepwater Horizon - 3
Nocturnal Animals - 2
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them - 2
Moana - 2

2016 Academy Award Predictions

What a year! After so many being utterly predictable in the major categories, we have a year that no one's quite sure who will take the top prize. And what a thrill that is for us Oscar watchers. I don't have much commentary this year, but it's interesting that the technical prizes are a battleground between The Revenant and Mad Max: Fury Road.
So I'm calling 6 for The Revenant, 3 for Mad Max: Fury Road and 2 for The Big Short.

BEST PICTURE

Amongst the primary precursors, we have a split. The Director's Guild gave it to Innaritu, the Producer's Guild to The Big Short, and the Screen Actor's Guild to Spotlight. The GGs gave it to Revenant, as did the BAFTAs. So I'm going with --and yes, that makes him the only director to direct two Best Pictures in a row--...

Will Win: The Revenant
Could Win: The Big Short
Wouldn't Be Surprised: Spotlight

DIRECTING

Will Win: Alejandro G. Innaritu, The Revenant
Could Win: George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road

ACTRESS

Will Win: Brie Larson, Room
Could Win: Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn

ACTOR

Will Win: Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
Dark Horse: Bryan Cranston, Trumbo

SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Will Win: Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
Could Win: Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs

SUPPORTING ACTOR

Will Win: Sylvester Stallone, Creed
Could Win: Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Will Win: Spotlight
Dark Horse: Inside Out

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Will Win: The Big Short
Dark Horse: Room?

EDITING

Will Win: The Big Short
Could Win: Mad Max: Fury Road

CINEMATOGRAPHY

Will Win: The Revenant
Could Win: Mad Max: Fury Road

PRODUCTION DESIGN

Will Win: Mad Max: Fury Road
Could Win: The Revenant

COSTUME DESIGN

Will Win: Mad Max: Fury Road
Could Win: Cinderella

MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

Will Win: Mad Max: Fury Road
Could Win: The Revenant

SOUND MIXING

Will Win: The Revenant
Could Win: Mad Max: Fury Road

SOUND EDITING

Will Win: The Revenant
Could Win: Mad Max: Fury Road

ORIGINAL SCORE

Will Win: The Hateful Eight
Could Win: Carol

ORIGINAL SONG

Will Win: "Til It Happens to You", The Hunting Ground
Could Win: "Writing's on the Wall", Spectre

VISUAL EFFECTS

Will Win: Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Could Win: Mad Max: Fury Road

ANIMATED FEATURE

Will Win: Inside Out
Could Win: Anomalisa

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Will Win: Amy
Could Win: What Happened, Miss Simone?

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FEATURE

Will Win: Son of Saul
Could Win: Mustang

ANIMATED SHORT

Will Win: Sanjay's Super Team
Could Win: Bear Story

LIVE ACTION SHORT

Will Win: Shok
Could Win: Stutterer

DOCUMENTARY SHORT

Will Win: A Girl in the River: The Price of Forgiveness
Could Win: Claude Lanzmann: Spectres of the Shoah
But Really, Who Knows?: Body Team 12

Oscar Nominations 2016 Reaction

Not too many surprises this year. I would say the 'snubs' and surprises are Abrahamson making it in at the expense of Ridley Scott in Directing; the lack of Tarantino and Sorkin in the screenplays; Tom Hardy showing up in Supporting Actor; Carol missing in Production Design, and the missing of "See You Again" from Furious 7. I did pretty well this year, even though I haven't been following the season as closely. I ended with an 81/101.

Best Picture
1. The Revenant
2. Spotlight
3. The Big Short
4. The Martian
5. Mad Max: Fury Road
6. Brooklyn
7. Bridge of Spies
12. Room

7/8


Best Director
1. Alejandro G. Iñárritu, The Revenant
2. Tom McCarthy, Spotlight
4. George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road
5. Adam McKay, The Big Short
*. Lenny Abrahamson, Room

4/5


Best Actress
1. Brie Larson, Room
2. Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn
3. Cate Blanchett, Carol
5. Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years
6. Jennifer Lawrence, Joy

4/5


Best Actor
1. Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
2. Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
3. Bryan Cranston, Trumbo
4. Matt Damon, The Martian
5. Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl

5/5


Best Supporting Actress
1. Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs
3. Rooney Mara, Carol
4. Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight
6. Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
7. Rachel McAdams, Spotlight

3/5


Best Supporting Actor
1. Sylvester Stallone, Creed
2. Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies
3. Christian Bale, The Big Short
7. Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight
*. Tom Hardy, The Revenant

3/5


Best Original Screenplay
1. Spotlight
2. Inside Out
4. Bridge of Spies
5. Ex Machina
7. Straight Outta Compton

4/5


Best Adapted Screenplay
1. The Big Short
3. The Martian
4. Carol
5. Room
6. Brooklyn

4/5


Best Film Editing
1. The Big Short
2. Mad Max: Fury Road
3. The Revenant
5. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
8. Spotlight

4/5


Best Cinematography
1. The Revenant
2. Mad Max: Fury Road
3. Sicario
4. Carol
5. The Hateful Eight

5/5


Best Costume Design
1. Carol
2. Cinderella
4. Mad Max: Fury Road
5. The Danish Girl
9. The Revenant

4/5


Best Production Design
1. Mad Max: Fury Road
3. The Martian
4. Bridge of Spies
6. The Revenant
8. The Danish Girl

3/5


Best Makeup and Hairstyling
1. Mad Max: Fury Road
2. The Revenant
6. The 100 Year Old Man Who Climbed Out the Window and Disappeared

2/3


Best Original Score
1. The Hateful Eight
2. Sicario
3. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
4. Carol
6. Bridge of Spies

4/5


Best Original Song
1. "Til It Happens to You", The Hunting Grounds
3. "Writing's On the Wall", Spectre
4. "Simple Song #3", Youth
*. "Earned It", Fifty Shades of Grey
*. "Manta Ray", Racing Extinction

3/5

Best Sound Mixing
1. Mad Max: Fury Road
2. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
3. The Revenant
4. Bridge of Spies
5. The Martian

5/5


Best Sound Editing
1. Mad Max: Fury Road
2. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
3. The Revenant
4. The Martian
7. Sicario

4/5

Best Visual Effects
1. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
2. Mad Max: Fury Road
3. The Revenant
4. The Martian
7. Ex Machina

4/5


Best Foreign Language Film
1. Son of Saul
2. Mustang
5. Theeb
8. A War
9. Embrace of the Serpent

3/5


Best Animated Feature
1. Inside Out
2. Anomalisa
4. Shaun the Sheep Movie
8. Boy and the World
9. When Marnie Was There

3/5


Best Documentary Feature
1. Amy
2. The Look of Silence
*. Cartel Land
*. What Happened, Miss Simone?
*. Winter on Fire: Ukraine's Fight for Freedom

3/5


81/101

Oscar Nominations Predictions 2016

Best Picture
1. The Revenant
2. Spotlight
3. The Big Short
4. The Martian
5. Mad Max: Fury Road
6. Brooklyn
7. Bridge of Spies
8. Carol
9. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
10. Inside Out
11. Straight Outta Compton
12. Room
13. Sicario
14. Trumbo
15. The Hateful Eight

Best Director
1. Alejandro G. Iñárritu, The Revenant
2. Tom McCarthy, Spotlight
3. Ridley Scott, The Martian
4. George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road
5. Adam McKay, The Big Short
6. Todd Haynes, Carol
7. Steven Spielberg, Bridge of Spies
8. Denis Villeneuve, Sicario
9. Quentin Tarantino, The Hateful Eight
10. John Crowley, Brooklyn

Best Actress
1. Brie Larson, Room
2. Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn
3. Cate Blanchett, Carol
4. Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
5. Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years
6. Jennifer Lawrence, Joy
7. Rooney Mara, Carol
8. Carey Mulligan, Suffragette
9. Maggie Smith, The Lady in the Van
10. Lily Tomlin, Grandma

Best Actor
1. Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
2. Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
3. Bryan Cranston, Trumbo
4. Matt Damon, The Martian
5. Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl
6. Johnny Depp, Black Mass
7. Michael B. Jordan, Creed
8. Will Smith, Concussion
9. Steve Carell, The Big Short
10. Tom Hanks, Bridge of Spies

Best Supporting Actress
1. Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs
2. Alicia Vikander, Ex Machina
3. Rooney Mara, Carol
4. Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight
5. Helen Mirren, Trumbo
6. Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
7. Rachel McAdams, Spotlight
8. Jane Fonda, Youth
9. Kristen Stewart, Clouds of Sils Maria
10. Julie Walters, Brooklyn

Best Supporting Actor
1. Sylvester Stallone, Creed
2. Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies
3. Christian Bale, The Big Short
4. Idris Elba, Beasts of No Nation
5. Michael Shannon, 99 Homes
6. Benicio Del Toro, Sicario
7. Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight
8. Jacob Tremblay, Room
9. Paul Dano, Love & Mercy
10. Michael Keaton, Spotlight

Best Original Screenplay
1. Spotlight
2. Inside Out
3. The Hateful Eight
4. Bridge of Spies
5. Ex Machina
6. Sicario
7. Straight Outta Compton
8. Trainwreck
9. Joy
10. 99 Homes

Best Adapted Screenplay
1. The Big Short
2. Steve Jobs
3. The Martian
4. Carol
5. Room
6. Brooklyn
7. The Revenant
8. Trumbo
9. Anomalisa
10. Mad Max: Fury Road

Best Film Editing
1. The Big Short
2. Mad Max: Fury Road
3. The Revenant
4. The Martian
5. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
6. Sicario
7. Bridge of Spies
8. Spotlight
9. Steve Jobs
10. Room

Best Cinematography
1. The Revenant
2. Mad Max: Fury Road
3. Sicario
4. Carol
5. The Hateful Eight
6. Bridge of Spies
7. The Martian
8. Room
9. Son of Saul
10. The Assassin

Best Costume Design
1. Carol
2. Cinderella
3. Brooklyn
4. Mad Max: Fury Road
5. The Danish Girl
6. Trumbo
7. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
8. Crimson Peak
9. The Revenant
10. The Hateful Eight

Best Production Design
1. Mad Max: Fury Road
2. Carol
3. The Martian
4. Bridge of Spies
5. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
6. The Revenant
7. Brooklyn
8. The Danish Girl
9. Crimson Peak
10. Cinderella

Best Makeup and Hairstyling
1. Mad Max: Fury Road
2. The Revenant
3. Black Mass
4. Mr. Holmes
5. Legend
6. The 100 Year Old Man Who Climbed Out the Window and Disappeared
7. Concussion

Best Original Score
1. The Hateful Eight
2. Sicario
3. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
4. Carol
5. The Danish Girl
6. Bridge of Spies
7. Spotlight
8. Steve Jobs
9. Mad Max: Fury Road
10. Inside Out

Best Original Song
1. "Til It Happens to You", The Hunting Grounds
2. "See You Again", Furious 7
3. "Writing's On the Wall", Spectre
4. "Simple Song #3", Youth
5. "I'll See You In My Dreams", I'll See You In My Dreams
I have no idea how to rank the rest.

Best Sound Mixing
1. Mad Max: Fury Road
2. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
3. The Revenant
4. Bridge of Spies
5. The Martian
6. The Hateful Eight
7. Sicario
8. Spectre
9. Jurassic World
10. Straight Outta Compton

Best Sound Editing
1. Mad Max: Fury Road
2. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
3. The Revenant
4. The Martian
5. The Hateful Eight
6. Bridge of Spies
7. Sicario
8. Jurassic World
9. Spectre
10. Inside Out

Best Visual Effects
1. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
2. Mad Max: Fury Road
3. The Revenant
4. The Martian
5. The Walk
6. Jurassic World
7. Ex Machina
8. Ant-Man
9. Avengers: Age of Ultron
10. Tomorrowland

Best Foreign Language Film
1. Son of Saul
2. Mustang
3. Labyrinth of Lies
4. Viva
5. Theeb
6. The Brand New Testament
7. The Fencer
8. A War
9. Embrace of the Serpent

Best Animated Feature
1. Inside Out
2. Anomalisa
3. The Peanuts Movie
4. Shaun the Sheep Movie
5. The Good Dinosaur
6. The Prophet
7. Minions
8. Boy and the World
9. When Marnie Was There
10. Home

Best Documentary Feature
1. Amy
2. The Look of Silence
Other possibilities:
He Named Me Malala
Where to Invade Next
Meru
Heart of a Dog
Going Clear: Scientology and the Prison of Belief