Oscar Predictions 2022

 What an absolutely bonkers year. "Chaos" has been the dominant term on Film Twitter, with Oscar folks pretty much flip-flopping their predictions every other day, it seems. No one is sure on Picture. Actress may as well be a crap-shoot. The screenplays have been in flux. While three of the acting categories have been pretty well wrapped up with the SAGs, a surprise in one of them seems likely. Dune looks to sweep the crafts categories, but to what extent? What's going on in Editing?

I think the length of this season has been the problem. Narratives ebb and flow, with the story changing each week: buzz is very real in the Oscar game, and it flows up and down. Benefiting from this is CODA, which won the SAG almost a month ago, and then the Producer's Guild recently. By the numbers, it looks to be the winner for Picture, but it also seems to be a very lightweight winner. The phrase "Hallmark Movie of the Week" has been thrown around more than once. It may play well on the weighted ballot, but I also think that it's doubtful that it's been getting a lot of number one placements from voters. The previous victor-in-waiting was The Power of the Dog, which over-performed on nominations morning. Since then, it's been taking a number of hits, with the public not being very fond of it (only a 6.9 on IMDb) and some high-profile figures airing their grievances. It's what we call a "critic's film", and I feel that those really don't do well with Oscars unless it's also an undeniable audience pleaser or feels 'Important' (see Parasite or even Moonlight): but we always have to come back to the weighted ballot, which when introduced changed everything. 

Directing is no longer the most associated award with Best Picture; it's screenplay. And with that tidbit of wisdom, we see that the two likely winners are CODA... and Belfast, the TIFF Audience Award winner. I think if there's a dark horse here, it's Belfast, despite what Film Twitter would like to see. So what am I going with for the biggest prize of the night (despite what last year's telecast would like you to think)?

Best Picture
Those of you that have followed my predictions over the years know that I don't play it safe. So with that in mind, if you use mine for your office pool, go with CODA. But I'm picking a surprise winner, and it's Belfast. "Whyyyyyy," you might be asking. It's because I just don't feel confident in The Power of the Dog over Belfast. I think Branagh's film will do well on the weighted ballot, I think that there's more passion votes for it over CODA (which, by the way, is missing important nominations in Editing and Directing), and I just have a hunch. If there's another film that may surprise, I wouldn't count out West Side Story. But that means that I have four films in the running, and to that I say: yes. Chaos reigns, after all.

My Pick: Belfast
Most Likely: CODA
Could Win: The Power of the Dog


Director
Now, unlike the craziness of Best Picture, it looks like The Power of the Dog's Jane Campion is the vastly consensus choice. The narrative is strong and has remained so over the entire season.

Will Win: Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog
Very Slight Possibility: Kenneth Branagh, Belfast


Actress
As with Picture, Actress is a category in complete flux, and is almost unpredictable. There's just so much going on here, as it's been a remarkably strong year for leading roles (which may or may not be reflected in the Oscar nominees). So like last year, I'll be ranking the nominees as I see them.

1. Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye
This is your most likely winner, but it certainly doesn't feel right, does it? She may have the SAG, but that's only one piece to go by on.

2. Kristen Stewart, Spencer
Stewart swept the critic awards, but then missed out on a SAG nomination. Uh oh! She then roared back with a 'surprise' Oscar nomination. I somehow feel that she's more likely than others think.

3. Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter
A favourite among the film community, in a film that's been divisive between critics and audiences.

4. Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos
Once upon a time, in 2022, Kidman was considered the frontrunner after Stewart fell from grace. She won the Golden Globe, after all. Then Stuff Happened.

5. Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers
The fact that I've placed Cruz last is just telling of how contestable the category is this year. Honestly, I can see any of the five winning.


Actor
After Directing, one of the easiest wins to call for Sunday night. Will Smith will finally get his much-sought after Oscar.

Will Win: Will Smith, King Richard
Could Win: Andrew Garfield, tick, tick... Boom!
Surprise?: Benedict Cumberpatch, The Power of the Dog


Supporting Actress
What an interesting win that Ariana DeBose will be, a reprise of co-star Rita Moreno's 1961 role in the first West Side Story. It's a delicious story, one that I think will be too good to ignore for the average Oscar voter.

Will Win: Ariana DeBose, West Side Story
Surprise!: Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog


Supporting Actor
Everyone, and I mean everyone, is going for Troy Kotsur here. Yet a part of me has a sneaking suspicion...

Will Win: Troy Kotsur, CODA
Surprise!: Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog


Adapted Screenplay
CODA is the widely predicted winner here, but it just. doesn't. feel. right. I mean, CODA winning over nominations leader The Power of the Dog? It may be a delightful film, but winning an Adapted Screenplay Oscar? Hmm. Here's another category to not go with my pick if you're in your office pool. Go with CODA. I'm not.

My Pick: The Power of the Dog
Most Likely: CODA


Original Screenplay
I think this will be a key category on Sunday night, based on Belfast's chances here. If it wins, then I think it just may go on to win for Best Picture. If it loses, then I'll be wrong, so then expect the winner of Adapted Screenplay to go on for the big prize. What is it up against, anyway? Well... it could be Film Twitter's beloved PTA and his breezy screenplay for Licorice Pizza. I think if there's a dark horse, it's The Worst Person in the World. The other two are just in it for the ride.

Will Win: Belfast
Could Win: Licorice Pizza


Editing
Dune seems to be the consensus here, and as we'll see, it's looking to dominate the crafts categories. But there's been a lot of talk about tick, tick... Boom!'s chances here, as it has perhaps the flashiest editing of the category. But it's also lacking in nominations, and I just don't think it will win. But we also have King Richard, which surprised everyone by winning the Editor's guild award. Does that spell out a winner for Oscar night? Again, I don't think it will. Best Picture hopeful The Power of the Dog, if it somehow wins here, will be victorious for the top prize. Don't Look Up will not win.

Will Win: Dune
Could Win: tick, tick... Boom!
What Do I Know?: King Richard

Cinematography
What a stacked category this year, with beautiful work from all five nominees. Still, I think this will spell out the beginning of Dune's sweep of the crafts.

Will Win: Dune
Could Win: The Power of the Dog
How Is This Not The Shoo-In Winner?: The Tragedy of Macbeth

Production Design
Another category with excellent work from all five, and although Nightmare Alley has a chance, it's probably gonna be the dark sci-fi of Dune.

Will Win: Dune
Could Win: Nightmare Alley

Costume Design
Oh, this one's easy. It's Cruella!

Will Win: Cruella
Could Win: Dune

Makeup and Hairstyling
Purposefully garish, just like the subject, it's gotta be The Eyes of Tammy Faye.

Will Win: The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Could Win: Dune


Original Score
Just like last year, easy-peasy. It's Dune!

Will Win: Dune
Maybe: The Power of the Dog
Surprise?: Encanto


Original Song
I think the Academy will wanna give Lin Manuel-Miranda his EGOT, but he's in steep competition with Billie Eilish and her brother's No Time to Die. James Bond theme songs have been doing well lately, and will this be another feather in the 007 cap? I really don't know where to go with this one. So...

Will Win: "No Time to Die", No Time to Die
Could Win: "Dos Oruguitas", Encanto


Sound
They used to like to award musicals in Sound Mixing, so West Side Story has a chance against the crafts behemoth Dune.

Will Win: Dune
Could Win: West Side Story


Visual Effects
I am tempted to just say, "Next!".. but I dunno. Will they want to throw Spider-Man a bone?

Will Win: Dune
Could Win: Spider-Man: No Way Home
 

Animated Feature
Encanto has certainly been dominating the conversation ever since it came out, with everyone talking about Bruno. (Hardy har har.) But I also feel that the Mitchell family deserves to be in there, too. And Flee, with its triple nominations, is about to walk away with none of them? Hmm. I dunno.

Will Win: Encanto
Could Win: Flee


International Feature
Best Picture nominee Drive My Car is probably the easy choice here. But The Worst Person in the World has also been well-loved, and is riding the buzz lately. I think this will be closer than we think, but will still turn out as we expect.

Will Win: Drive My Car (Japan)
Could Win: The Worst Person in the World (Norway)


Documentary Feature
Summer of Soul has been sweeping the awards circuit, and it probably won't stop here. Flee is the next in line, but it's been overshadowed.

Will Win: Summer of Soul
Could Win: Flee

The Shorts
I haven't seen any of them, and it's always basically a crapshoot if you haven't, so I'm just going with what looks to be consensus here.

Animated Short
Will Win: Robin Robin
CanCon Representation: Affairs of the Art

Live Action Short
Will Win: The Long Goodbye
Could Win: The Dress

Documentary Short
Will Win: The Queen of Basketball
Could Win: Audible

MULTIPLE WINNER TALLY

Dune: 6 (Editing, Cinematography, Production Design, Score, Sound, Visual Effects)
Belfast: 2 (Picture, Original Screenplay)
The Power of the Dog: 2 (Directing, Adapted Screenplay)
The Eyes of Tammy Faye: 2 (Actress, Hair and Makeup)

And the rest have one Oscar apiece.

Oscar Nominations Reaction 2022

75/105

Certainly not my best year, but that's also because of so many surprises! Almost every category had a "Huh! Didn't see that coming" moment: Nightmare Alley sneaking into Picture; Villeneuve missing like he did at the BAFTAs; surprises in both supporting acting roles (Simmons? Dench?); West Side Story doing well, but not quite as well as I was expecting; editing, which left out some key players; Drive My Car getting four nominations, not just for International; and the hilarious snubs of House of Gucci.

It certainly looks like The Power of the Dog's to lose at this point, as it leads with twelve nominations, a little bit more than what people were predicting.

Best Picture

1. Belfast
2. The Power of the Dog
3. Dune
4. West Side Story
5. Licorice Pizza
6. CODA
7. King Richard
8. Don't Look Up
10. Drive My Car
13. Nightmare Alley

9/10

Director
I'm sorry, what? Did Dune just direct itself to ten nominations?

1. Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog
3. Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza
4. Kenneth Branagh, Belfast
5. Steven Spielberg, West Side Story
6. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Drive My Car

4/5

Actress
Gaga, who has been campaigning hard for the nomination, has been snubbed! Stewart, who many were considering to be out of the rankings because of misses with BAFTA and SAG, makes it in.

1. Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos
2. Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter
4. Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye
6. Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers
7. Kristen Stewart, Spencer

3/5

Actor
Aaaaaand it's the SAG five.

1. Will Smith, King Richard
2. Benedict Cumberpatch, The Power of the Dog
3. Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth
4. Andrew Garfield, tick, tick... Boom!
6. Javier Bardem, Being the Ricardos

4/5

Supporting Actress
Belfast was nominated here, but with a different actress: the legendary Judi Dench, whom I suspected early on would make it in, but never had the guts to say.

1. Ariana DeBose, West Side Story
2. Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog
4. Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard
8. Jessie Buckley, The Lost Daughter
-. Judi Dench, Belfast

3/5

Supporting Actor

1. Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog
2. Troy Kotsur, CODA
3. Ciaran Hinds, Belfast
7. Jesse Plemons, The Power of the Dog
-. J.K. Simmons, Being the Ricardos

3/5

Adapted Screenplay

1. The Power of the Dog
2. CODA
4. Dune
5. Drive My Car
6. The Lost Daughter

4/5

Original Screenplay

1. Licorice Pizza
2. Belfast
3. King Richard
4. Don't Look Up
10. The Worst Person in the World

4/5

Editing

1. Dune
2. The Power of the Dog
6. Don't Look Up
7. tick, tick... Boom!
8. King Richard

2/5

Cinematography

1. Dune
2. The Power of the Dog
3. The Tragedy of Macbeth
4. West Side Story
6. Nightmare Alley

4/5

Production Design

1. Dune
2. Nightmare Alley
3. West Side Story
5. The Tragedy of Macbeth
-. The Power of the Dog

4/5

Costume Design
When House of Gucci missed here, I knew the film was in trouble and anticipated snubs.

1. Cruella
2. Dune
4. West Side Story
5. Nightmare Alley
7. Cyrano

4/5

Makeup and Hairstyling

1. The Eyes of Tammy Faye
2. Dune
3. Cruella
4. House of Gucci
9. Coming 2 America

4/5

Original Score

1. Dune
2. The Power of the Dog
3. Don't Look Up
4. Encanto
6. Parallel Mothers

4/5


Original Song

1. "No Time to Die", No Time to Die
2. "Dos Oruguitas", Encanto
3. "Be Alive", King Richard
7. "Down to Joy", Belfast
-. "Somehow You Do", Four Good Days

3/5

Sound

1. Dune
2. West Side Story
3. No Time to Die
5. Belfast
6. The Power of the Dog

4/5

Visual Effects

1. Dune
2. Spider-Man: No Way Home
3. Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings
6. No Time to Die
7. Free Guy

3/5

Animated Feature

1. Encanto
2. Flee
3. The Mitchells vs the Machines
4. Luca
5. Raya and the Last Dragon

5/5


International Feature

1. Drive My Car (Japan)
3. Flee (Denmark)
4. The Worst Person in the World (Norway)
5. The Hand of God (Italy)
8. Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom (Bhutan)

4/5

Documentary Feature

1. Flee
4. Ascension
5. Summer of Soul
8. Attica
10. Writing with Fire

3/5

Tallies: Films With More Than One Nomination

The Power of the Dog 12
Dune 10
West Side Story 7
Belfast 7
King Richard 6
Don't Look Up 4
Drive My Car 4
Nightmare Alley 4
Being the Ricardos 3
CODA 3
Encanto 3
Flee 3
Licorice Pizza 3
The Lost Daughter 3
The Tragedy of Macbeth 3
No Time to Die 3
Cruella 2
The Eyes of Tammy Faye 2
Parallel Mothers 2
tick, tick... Boom! 2
The Worst Person in the World 2

Oscar Nominations Predictions 2022

I haven't been following the Oscar race as closely this year, with one primary reason: I haven't been to the cinema since the pandemic started. Therefore, I haven't seen these films... but I'm still making my predictions! This is based on critical and industry support, along with following Film Twitter and awards blogs. It looks like it's a four-way race between Belfast, The Power of the Dog, Dune and West Side Story for Oscar glory, with these films leading the tally.

Best Picture

1. Belfast
2. The Power of the Dog
3. Dune
4. West Side Story
5. Licorice Pizza
6. CODA
7. King Richard
8. Don't Look Up
9. tick, tick... Boom!
10. Drive My Car
11. The Tragedy of Macbeth
12. Being the Ricardos
13. Nightmare Alley
14. House of Gucci
15. The Lost Daughter
16. Spider-Man: No Way Home
17. Cyrano
18. Spencer
19. Titane
20. Parallel Mothers

Director
I'm going with the DGA five, but this is a category ripe for surprises.

1. Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog
2. Denis Villeneuve, Dune
3. Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza
4. Kenneth Branagh, Belfast
5. Steven Spielberg, West Side Story
6. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Drive My Car
7. Julia Ducournau, Titane
8. Joel Coen, The Tragedy of Macbeth
9. Pedro Almodovar, Parallel Mothers
10. Adam McKay, Don't Look Up
Also in Contention: Reinaldo Marcus Green (King Richard), Guillermo del Toro (Nightmare Alley), Maggie Gyllenhaal (The Lost Daughter), Lin-Manuel Miranda (tick, tick... Boom!), Sian Heder (CODA)

Actress
Unlike last year, where the final five were widely predicted, this time there is a general consensus that the category is in flux. No one can agree on who's the front-runner, with Stewart missing out on some major award nominations when only a few months ago she was practically crowned Victor-in-Waiting. I think that Haim will make it in, but I'm not confident in this lineup at all. Expect there to be some surprises tomorrow morning.

1. Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos
2. Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter
3. Lady Gaga, House of Gucci
4. Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye
5. Alana Haim, Licorice Pizza
6. Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers
7. Kristen Stewart, Spencer
8. Jennifer Hudson, Respect
9. Rachel Zegler, West Side Story
10. Frances McDormand, The Tragedy of Macbeth

Actor
I'm just not convinced that Bardem will translate his SAG nomination to an Oscar one. Does that mean that DiCaprio will sneak into that fifth place? Or will Dinklage or Cage make it in, with their well-received performances in smaller films?

1. Will Smith, King Richard
2. Benedict Cumberpatch, The Power of the Dog
3. Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth
4. Andrew Garfield, tick, tick... Boom!
5. Nicolas Cage, Pig
6. Javier Bardem, Being the Ricardos
7. Leonardo DiCaprio, Don't Look Up
8. Peter Dinklage, Cyrano
9. Adam Driver, Annette
10. Hidetoshi Nishijima, Drive My Car

Supporting Actress
How wonderful would it be to see Moreno make it in, along with DeBose? I mean, to see Moreno, who won the Oscar for the 1961 West Side Story as Anita, watch rising star DeBose win for the same role? That's just the kind of delicious thing that the Academy lives for. Alas, I don't think Moreno will make it in, but this is a strong category that is just itching for a surprise.

1. Ariana DeBose, West Side Story
2. Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog
3. Caitriona Balfe, Belfast
4. Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard
5. Ruth Negga, Passing
6. Ann Dowd, Mass
7. Rita Moreno, West Side Story
8. Jessie Buckley, The Lost Daughter
9. Marlee Matlin, CODA
10. Cate Blanchett, Nightmare Alley

Supporting Actor
Please don't make me list Jared Leto for his "Mamma-Mia, I like-a-da-spicy-meatball" performance.

1. Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog
2. Troy Kotsur, CODA
3. Ciaran Hinds, Belfast
4. Bradley Cooper, Licorice Pizza
5. Mike Faist, West Side Story
6. Jared Leto, House of Gucci
7. Jesse Plemons, The Power of the Dog
8. Jamie Dornan, Belfast
9. Ben Affleck, The Tender Bar
10. Jason Isaacs, Mass

Adapted Screenplay
What a category! I think any of the top ten here have a chance to make it in. I'm not all that convinced with CODA, but the industry awards to far have been in its favour, so there we have it.

1. The Power of the Dog
2. CODA
3. West Side Story
4. Dune
5. Drive My Car
6. The Lost Daughter
7. The Tragedy of Macbeth
8. Nightmare Alley
9. Passing
10. tick, tick... Boom!

Original Screenplay
A remarkably weak category this year, with two films that were not all that well received sneaking into the top five positions, yet getting industry support: Don't Look Up and Being the Ricardos.

1. Licorice Pizza
2. Belfast
3. King Richard
4. Don't Look Up
5. Being the Ricardos
6. Parallel Mothers
7. Mass
8. A Hero
9. Pig
10. The Worst Person in the World

Editing
I suspect that Drive My Car may make it in, but with no precursor mentions, it's at the bottom of my top ten list. So why do I think this? Because the last few weeks have been a flurry of people talking about the film, and with its surprising pacing and gutsy decisions (with the title card 45 minutes into the film). Still, you can't go wrong with this top five.

1. Dune
2. The Power of the Dog
3. Belfast
4. Licorice Pizza
5. West Side Story
6. Don't Look Up
7. tick, tick... Boom!
8. King Richard
9. Summer of Soul
10. Drive My Car

Cinematography
I'm not seeing anyone mention Passing in their nominations, but it's another film that I think may surprise here.

1. Dune
2. The Power of the Dog
3. The Tragedy of Macbeth
4. West Side Story
5. Belfast
6. Nightmare Alley
7. The Green Knight
8. Spencer
9. tick, tick... Boom!
10. Passing

Production Design

1. Dune
2. Nightmare Alley
3. West Side Story
4. The French Dispatch
5. The Tragedy of Macbeth
6. Cyrano
7. Belfast
8. Spencer
9. Cruella
10. The Last Duel

Costume Design

1. Cruella
2. Dune
3. House of Gucci
4. West Side Story
5. Nightmare Alley
6. Spencer
7. Cyrano
8. The French Dispatch
9. Coming 2 America
10. Annette

Makeup and Hairstyling

1. The Eyes of Tammy Faye
2. Dune
3. Cruella
4. House of Gucci
5. West Side Story
6. Nightmare Alley
7. The Suicide Squad
8. Cyrano
9. Coming 2 America
10. No Time to Die

Original Score

1. Dune
2. The Power of the Dog
3. Don't Look Up
4. Encanto
5. The French Dispatch
6. Parallel Mothers
7. Spencer
8. No Time to Die
9. The Harder They Fall
10. The Green Knight

Original Song
No, "We Don't Talk About Bruno" won't be nominated. Why? Because it wasn't submitted for consideration, something that a lot of people have been calling a huge mistake for Disney.

1. "No Time to Die", No Time to Die
2. "Dos Oruguitas", Encanto
3. "Be Alive", King Richard
4. "Just Look Up", Don't Look Up
5. "Here I Am Singing My Way Home", Respect
6. "Guns Go Bang", The Harder They Fall
7. "Down to Joy", Belfast
8. "So May We Start", Annette
9. "Your Song Saved My Life", Sing 2
10. "Beyond the Shore", CODA

Sound

1. Dune
2. West Side Story
3. No Time to Die
4. tick, tick... Boom!
5. Belfast
6. The Power of the Dog
7. Spider-Man: No Way Home
8. A Quiet Place Part II
9. The Matrix Resurrections
10. Last Night in Soho

Visual Effects

1. Dune
2. Spider-Man: No Way Home
3. Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings
4. The Matrix Resurrections
5. Godzilla vs. Kong
6. No Time to Die
7. Free Guy
8. Eternals
9. Ghostbusters: Afterlife
10. Black Widow

Animated Feature
You'll notice something here: Flee is predicted in Animated, International and Documentary feature categories. Cool!

1. Encanto
2. Flee
3. The Mitchells vs the Machines
4. Luca
5. Raya and the Last Dragon
6. Belle
7. Sing 2
8. The Summit of the Gods
9. ??
10. ??


International Feature

1. Drive My Car (Japan)
2. A Hero (Iran)
3. Flee (Denmark)
4. The Worst Person in the World (Norway)
5. The Hand of God (Italy)
6. Compartment No 6 (Finland)
7. Hive (Kosovo)
8. Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom (Bhutan)
9. Lamb (Iceland)

Documentary Feature
There's always a surprise here, usually the snub of a supposed front-runner. I think it'll be Summer of Soul that will be snubbed here, but I'm still placing it in my top 5, because all industry support is suggesting it.

1. Flee
2. The Rescue
3. Procession
4. Ascension
5. Summer of Soul
6. Julia
7. The Velvet Underground
8. Attica
9. The First Wave
10. Writing with Fire

Tallies: Films With More Than One Nomination

Dune 11
West Side Story 11
The Power of the Dog 9
Belfast 8
Licorice Pizza 6
King Richard 5
Don't Look Up 4
CODA 3
Drive My Car 3
Encanto 3
Flee 3
House of Gucci 3
tick, tick... Boom! 3
The Tragedy of Macbeth 3
Being the Ricardos 2
Cruella 2
The Eyes of Tammy Faye 2
The French Dispatch 2
Nightmare Alley 2
No Time to Die 2

Oscar Predictions 2021

Best Picture
Looking at my predictions, I'm struck by the possibility that Trial may get Best Picture -- and nothing else. It may be close for Screenplay and Editing, but I think that Nomadland will come out on top. But we'll see what happens earlier in the evening: if Zhao loses in her screenplay catgeory, and Sorkin wins in his, and then if Trial picks up Editing, Trial will be the winner. A strange winner for a strange year.

Will Win: Nomadland
Could Win: The Trial of the Chicago 7


Director
It is very unlikely that anyone will top Zhao this year, as she has been sweeping virtually every award there is thus far.

Will Win: Chloé Zhao, Nomadland
Very Slight Possibility: Emerald Fennell, Promising Young Woman


Actress
It's been a long time since I've seen an acting category so wide open. Davis, Mulligan and McDormand are battling it out, but don't rule out Day, either. Kirby is in it for the ride. Of the top three, I suspect that Davis will be the surprise loser, with Mulligan coming out on top. The problem with Davis' performance is that she isn't in the film very much, despite being the titular character. It's a great performance, yes, but for a leading role she doesn't carry the film as much as Boseman does, who is widely expected to win his category. Mulligan also feels a little bit "overdue", which contrasts the two-time winning McDormand, who just may win again. I dunno -- this is probably the hardest category of the year. So let's rank them:

1. Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman
2. Viola Davis, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
3. Frances McDormand, Nomadland
-
4. Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday
-
-
5. Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman


Actor
What a packed category! I can see arguments for any of Boseman, Hopkins and Ahmed -- indeed, they have split the precursors -- but Boseman has both a charismatic performance and a strong winning narrative: a beloved actor, never before nominated, but tragically dying at far too young an age. Hopkins has an Oscar already, but the performance is supposedly amazing (I haven't seen it); Ahmed may have won in another year, I think.

Will Win: Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Could Win: Anthony Hopkins, The Father
Heck If I Know: Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal


Supporting Actress
Earlier in the season, this category seemed wide open, but recently it has solidified around Yuh-Jung Youn.

Will Win: Yuh-Jung Youn, Minari
Surprise!: Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm


Supporting Actor
Judas and its blatant category fraud will still come out on top with Daniel Kaluuya's magnificent, magnetic performance winning. If there's any chance for a surprise, it probably comes from Sacha Baron Cohen, or even Paul Raci; but this one, like the Supporting Actress category, seems locked up.

Will Win: Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah
Surprise!: Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7


Original Screenplay
Now here's a category that has changed in the last legs of the race: it seems that Sorkin's Trial is no longer the favourite here, with Fennell's Promising Young Woman being the most predicted over at GoldDerby. I'm hesitant for some reason to call if for Fennell, as Sorkin's film seems like the kind of middle-brow, liberal, snappy Hollywood political history that voters seem to really go for. But who am I to resist the crowd?

Will Win: Promising Young Woman
Could Win: The Trial of the Chicago 7


Adapted Screenplay
It seems that the two battling out are Nomadland and The Father, which have been splitting the prognosticator's votes. I think Nomadland will need this to win Best Picture, as we know that in recent years the two categories of Screenplay and Picture have been more linked than Directing and Picture. If Nomadland loses this earlier in the evening, I may brace for a surprising lose in Picture. I've also seen some anonymous voters going for Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, but I somehow don't think it has much of a chance here. I could be wrong.

 Will Win: Nomadland
Could Win: The Father


Editing
Oh man -- another battle. Sound of Metal seems to be the consensus here, but what about Best Picture hopefuls Nomadland and Trial? Editing is a category no longer directly linked to Best Picture winners, and it seems that Sound has the "flashiest" editing, which usually tickles the voters just right. I think that if Nomadland sweeps, it'll win here, but that Trial is the more likely. So in the end:

Will Win: Sound of Metal
Could Win: The Trial of the Chicago 7
Sweep: Nomadland


Cinematography
This comes down to two: ASC winner Mank and Best Picture hopeful Nomadland. Do they go with classy black-and-white or the Golden Hour? I think it'll be Mank.

Will Win: Mank
Could Win: Nomadland


Production Design
It looks like a near-complete consensus: Mank will take this one.

Will Win: Mank
Could Win: Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

Costume Design
This one will go to Ma Rainey, although I don't know if it deserves it. Ma Rainey's costumes are pretty awesome, but I just think that given the relative fewer costumes there are, versus something like Mank or Emma, may hurt its chances. I'm probably wrong in doubting it.

Will Win: Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Could Win: Emma.

Makeup and Hairstyling
Probably an easy win for Ma Rainey. Pinnochio is pretty breathtaking based on production stills, but like me, I don't think enough voters will have seen it. Hillbilly Elegy looks to be nipping at Ma's tail, but can we not go there, please?

Will Win: Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Could Win: Hillbilly Elegy
Maybe This Should Win: Pinocchio


Original Score
Easy-peasy. Soul has got this one, giving Reznor and Ross their second Oscar. This is a near-universal consensus.

Will Win: Soul
Maybe: Mank


Original Song
I'm not sure, but it looks like "Speak Now" is the predicted winner here, although there are many people diverting from this consensus. I smell a surprise, though, but not sure which one to throw my support behind.

Will Win: "Speak Now", One Night in Miami
Could Win: "Io Si (Seen)", The Life Ahead


Sound
Easy win for Sound of Metal. It has "sound" in its title! I don't even want to name a "Could Win" here, because I think it's so obvious a winner.

Will Win: Sound of Metal


Visual Effects
Poor Tenet. It didn't do too well at the Oscars this year, but it will be a winner nonetheless.

Will Win: Tenet
 

Animated Feature
Soul is the obvious winner here, but is there Pixar fatigue settling in? Maybe they'll go for a surprise and give the Oscar to Wolfwalkers.

Will Win: Soul
Could Win: Wolfwalkers



International Feature
Vinteberg's Another Round may be about middle-aged dudes drinking, but it's still the expected winner over Quo Vadis, Aida?.

Will Win: Another Round (Denmark)
Could Win: Quo Vadis, Aida? (Bosnia and Herzegovina)
Surprise!: Collective (Romania)


Documentary Feature
Looks like the personified octopus movie is getting the Oscar. Feels like a lightweight winner to me -- maybe it'll be Time or Collective instead, but there's really not much to go on here.

Will Win: My Octopus Teacher
Could Win: Time

The Shorts
I haven't seen any of them, and it's always basically a crapshoot if you haven't, so I'm just going with what looks to be consensus here.

Animated Short
Will Win: If Anything Happens I Love You
Could Win: Opera

Live Action Short
Will Win: Two Distant Strangers
Could Win: The Letter Room

Documentary Short
Will Win: A Love Song for Latasha
Could Win: A Concerto is a Conversation 

TALLY

Nomadland: 3 (Picture, Directing, Adapted Screenplay)
Ma Rainey's Black Bottom: 3 (Actor, Costume, Makeup & Hairstyling)
Mank: 2 (Production Design, Cinematography)
Promising Young Woman: 2 (Actress, Original Screenplay)
Sound of Metal: 2 (Editing, Sound)
Soul: 2 (Animated Feature, Score)

 

Oscar Nominations 2021 Reaction

79/103
If I did the math right, was this my worst year since I've been keeping track? I certainly seems so, dipping into the 70s, but then I remembered: one less category. Sound has been consolidated. So if I add three (let's say I got 3/5 to match each category to what I actually got), I get 82, which is about par.
So I think the story of this year is Judas and the Black Messiah, which has six nominations, including Best Picture and two in Supporting Actor -- four more than the two nominations I was expecting. Ma Rainey's Black Bottom didn't do quite as well as I was guessing, but I think in retrospect it makes sense. Interesting to see it miss out on Picture along with One Night in Miami, as both are stage adaptations, and although I haven't seen them yet, word is that both are, well, stagey.
Nomadland seems to be the frontrunner here now, as Trial missed out on a crucial Directing nomination: but as we have seen, this hasn't meant much the past few years. Green Book, anyone?

Best Picture
I've been over the past few years getting all of these correct. Not this year! Ma Rainey and One Night in Miami miss out.

1. Nomadland
2. The Trial of the Chicago 7
3. Minari
4. Promising Young Woman
5. Mank
8. Sound of Metal
11. Judas and the Black Messiah
13. The Father
6/8


Director
There were rumblings online that Vinterberg would be the surprise here, and they were correct. Happy to see two women become nominees. Sorry, Sorkin!

1. Chloé Zhao, Nomadland
2. David Fincher, Mank
4. Lee Isaac Chung, Minari
5. Emerald Fennell, Promising Young Woman
10. Thomas Vinterberg, Another Round
4/5

Actress

1. Viola Davis, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
2. Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman
3. Frances McDormand, Nomadland
4. Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday
5. Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman
5/5

Actor

1. Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
2. Anthony Hopkins, The Father
3. Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal
4. Gary Oldman, Mank
5. Steven Yuen, Minari
5/5

Supporting Actress

1. Olivia Colman, The Father
2. Yuh-Jung Youn, Minari
3. Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
5. Amanda Seyfried, Mank
6. Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy
4/5

Supporting Actor
No one, and as far as I can tell, no one expected Judas to get two nominations here. Apparently the film is without a lead?

1. Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah
2. Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7
3. Leslie Odom Jr., One Night in Miami
4. Paul Raci, Sound of Metal
-. Lakeith Stanfield, Judas and the Black Messiah
4/5

Original Screenplay
A strong category, but Mank missing out is the story here. Sorry, David Fincher's father.

1. The Trial of the Chicago 7
2. Promising Young Woman
3. Minari
5. Sound of Metal
7. Judas and the Black Messiah
4/5

Adapted Screenplay
Okay, I loved hearing Borat Subsequent Moviefilm's full title and writing team being read aloud. Hilarious.

1. Nomadland
2. One Night in Miami
3. The Father
7. Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
9. The White Tiger
3/5


Editing
Mank didn't do as well as I thought it would, and with it missing here and in Original Screenplay.

1. The Trial of the Chicago 7
2. Nomadland
4. Sound of Metal
5. Promising Young Woman
6. The Father
4/5

Cinematography
I was right: there are surprises here. Minari misses out, and Judas continues its streak.

1. Nomadland
2. Mank
3. News of the World
6. The Trial of the Chicago 7
7. Judas and the Black Messiah
3/5

Production Design
Certainly didn't see The Father walking in here.

1. Mank
2. Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
3. News of the World
5. Tenet
-. The Father
4/5

Costume Design
Didn't expect Pinocchio to be double-nominated this year.

1. Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
2. Mank
3. Emma.
4. Mulan
-. Pinocchio
4/5

Makeup and Hairstyling
I really didn't want to see Hillbilly Elegy to be nominated here, but it was. It might win, too.

1. Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
2. Mank
3. Hillbilly Elegy
5. Emma.
6. Pinocchio
4/5

Original Score
NIN are double nominees. Wow!

1. Soul
2. Mank
3. Minari
4. News of the World
7. Da 5 Bloods
4/5

Original Song
It's rare that I get more than three here, let alone all five nominees.

1. "Speak Now", One Night in Miami
2. "Io Si (Seen)", The Life Ahead
3. "Fight for You", Judas and the Black Messiah
4. "Hear My Voice", The Trial of the Chicago 7
5. "Husavik", Eurovision Song Contest
5/5

Sound
Formerly Sound Mixing and Sound (Effects) Editing. For my score, assume this is doubled.

1. Sound of Metal
2. Mank
3. Soul
6. News of the World
7. Greyhound
3/5


Visual Effects
I found this to be a rather strange line-up, given the two surprises. I'm not even sure if I had heard of The One and Only Ivan before I started researching possible nominees.

1. Tenet
2. The Midnight Sky
3. Mulan
7. The One and Only Ivan
9. Love and Monsters
3/5

Animated Feature
I correctly predicted the selected five, foreseeing that the branch wouldn't nominate The Croods sequel.

1. Soul
2. Wolfwalkers
3. Onward
4. Over the Moon
5. Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon


International Feature
Two surprises!

1. Another Round (Denmark)
2. Quo Vadis, Aida? (Bosnia and Herzegovina)
3. Collective (Romania)
-. Better Days (Hong Kong)
-. The Man Who Sold His Skin
3/5

Documentary Feature
My worst category this year. Mole Agent surprises out of nowhere, and two well-received films that were expected to show up didn't. Always a tough call, this category is.

1. Time
2. Collective
6. Crip Camp
8. My Octopus Teacher
-. The Mole Agent
2/5

TALLIES
Films With More Than One Nomination
Nominations (Predicted Nominations)
Mank - 10 (13)
Judas and the Black Messiah - 6 (2)
Minari - 6 (7)
Nomadland - 6 (6)
Sound of Metal - 6 (6)
The Father - 6 (3)
The Trial of the Chicago 7 - 6 (6)
Ma Rainey's Black Bottom - 5 (8)
Promising Young Woman - 5 (5)
News of the World - 4 (5)
One Night in Miami - 3 (4)
Soul- 3 (4)
Tenet - 2 (4)
Mulan - 2 (3)
Another Round - 2 (1)
Borat Subsequent Moviefilm - 2 (1)
Collective - 2 (2)
Emma. - 2 (2)
Hillbilly Elegy - 2 (0)
Pinocchio - 2 (0)
Da 5  Bloods - 1 (2)

Oscar Nominations Predictions 2021

What a bizarre year 2020 was. Let's not dwell on the misery that it was, and let's divert our attention to the late Oscar season.

Mank seems to be poised to be the leader of this year's nominations --I'm looking at 13 nods-- but I don't see it translating well to Oscar night. The frontrunners in that respect are Nomadland and The Trial of the Chicago 7. Consensus seems to be that Trial will pick up Picture and Nomadland Directing, resulting in a "split year". In years past the general trick was to never predict Picture/Directing splits, as they were very difficult to see coming -- but as we have seen since Argo, these have become more common.

But the main story here is the diversity of nominees: we are suspecting that THREE of the Directing nominations could be women (Zhao, Fennell and King), which would also make (with Chung's Minari) THREE non-white directors. Considering that most years have five white men as the nominees, this is astounding!

Looking at the tallies, I see there are two films that I'm surprised to see racking up the potential nominations: Ma Rainey's Black Bottom (8 nods) and Sound of Metal (6 nods). Who woulda thunk it? Certainly not me a year ago.

Best Picture

1. Nomadland
2. The Trial of the Chicago 7
3. Minari
4. Promising Young Woman
5. Mank
6. One Night in Miami
7. Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
8. Sound of Metal
9. Da 5 Bloods
10. Soul
11. Judas and the Black Messiah
12. News of the World
13. The Father
14. Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
15. First Cow
16. The Mauritanian
17. Tenet
18. Pieces of a Woman
19. Hillbilly Elegy
20. Another Round

Director
How exciting would it be to have THREE women nominated? I think King might sneak in, but at whose expense? Could Sorkin miss? Or even *gasp* Fincher? I don't think anyone is locked here other than Zhao, including Fennell.

1. Chloé Zhao, Nomadland
2. David Fincher, Mank
3. Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7
4. Lee Isaac Chung, Minari
5. Emerald Fennell, Promising Young Woman
6. Regina King, One Night in Miami
7. Spike Lee, Da 5 Bloods
8. Darius Marder, Sound of Metal
9. Florian Zeller, The Father
10. Thomas Vinterberg, Another Round
Also in Contention: Paul Greengrass (News of the World) Shaka King (Judas and the Black Messiah), Kelly Reichardt (First Cow), George C. Wolfe (Ma Rainey's Black Bottom)

Actress
The top five here seem to be the general consensus: it's unlikely there will be a surprise here.

1. Viola Davis, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
2. Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman
3. Frances McDormand, Nomadland
4. Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday
5. Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman
6. Sophia Loren, The Life Ahead
7. Amy Adams, Hillbilly Elegy
8. Zendaya, Malcolm and Marie
9. Michelle Pfeiffer, French Exit
10. Yeri Han, Minari

Actor
I have a suspicion that Mikkelsen will make his way in, but again, at whose expense? Yuen?

1. Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
2. Anthony Hopkins, The Father
3. Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal
4. Gary Oldman, Mank
5. Steven Yuen, Minari
6. Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods
7. Mads Mikkelsen, Another Round
8. Kingsley Ben-Adir, One Night in Miami
9. Tom Hanks, News of the World
10. LaKeith Stanfield, Judas and the Black Messiah

Supporting Actress
This is a strange category: everyone's saying Close is in, but I really don't think she survived the critical bashing of the film. Foster won the Globe, meaning that she's likely nominated, and Bakalova has been doing quite well I think. Seyfried seems to be the weak one here, but I somehow have a feeling that she's in.

1. Olivia Colman, The Father
2. Yuh-Jung Youn, Minari
3. Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
4. Jodie Foster, The Mauritanian
5. Amanda Seyfried, Mank
6. Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy
7. Ellen Burstyn, Pieces of a Woman
8. Helena Zengel, News of the World
9. Saoirse Ronan, Ammonite
10. Dominque Fishback, Judas and the Black Messiah

Supporting Actor
Will Trial of the Chicago 7 be multi-nominated here? If so, with who?

1. Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah
2. Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7
3. Leslie Odom Jr., One Night in Miami
4. Paul Raci, Sound of Metal
5. Chadwick Boseman, Da 5 Bloods
6. Mark Rylance, The Trial of the Chicago 7
7. Jared Leto, The Little Things
8. Alan Kim, Minari
9. Bill Murray, On the Rocks
10. Yahya Abdul-Mateen II, The Trial of the Chicago 7

Original Screenplay
A rather strong category this year. I can see any of the top 8 getting in.

1. The Trial of the Chicago 7
2. Promising Young Woman
3. Minari
4. Mank
5. Sound of Metal
6. Soul
7. Judas and the Black Messiah
8. Da 5 Bloods
9. On the Rocks
10. Never Rarely Always Sometimes

Adapted Screenplay

1. Nomadland
2. One Night in Miami
3. The Father
4. News of the World
5. Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
6. I'm Thinking of Ending Things
7. Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
8. First Cow
9. The White Tiger
10. The Mauritanian

Editing

1. The Trial of the Chicago 7
2. Nomadland
3. Mank
4. Sound of Metal
5. Promising Young Woman
6. The Father
7. Minari
8. Tenet
9. News of the World
10. Da 5 Bloods

Cinematography
Tenet wasn't nominated by the Guild, but Trial was -- I still don't think that Trial's rather generic cinematography is deserving, but it somehow snuck in. Let's see if there's a surprise: I feel that this category is ripe for one.

1. Nomadland
2. Mank
3. News of the World
4. Minari
5. Tenet
6. The Trial of the Chicago 7
7. Judas and the Black Messiah
8. Da 5 Bloods
9. Cherry
10. Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

Production Design

1. Mank
2. Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
3. News of the World
4. Mulan
5. Tenet
6. Emma.
7. The Midnight Sky
8. The Trial of the Chicago 7
9. Personal History of David Copperfield
10. Rebecca

Costume Design

1. Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
2. Mank
3. Emma.
4. Mulan
5. News of the World
6. The United States vs. Billie Holiday
7. Personal History of David Copperfield
8. Ammonite
9. Promising Young Woman
10. Birds of Prey

Makeup and Hairstyling
I really don't want to see Hillbilly Elegy to be nominated here, but I suspect it will.
1. Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
2. Mank
3. Hillbilly Elegy
4. Birds of Prey
5. Emma.
6. Pinocchio
7. Jingle Jangle: A Christmas Journey
8. One Night in Miami
9. The Glorias
10. The Little Things

Original Score

1. Soul
2. Mank
3. Minari
4. News of the World
5. The Midnight Sky
6. Tenet
7. Da 5 Bloods
8. The Trial of the Chicago 7
9. The Little Things
10. Mulan

Original Song

1. "Speak Now", One Night in Miami
2. "Io Si (The Life Ahead)", Seen
3. "Fight for You", Judas and the Black Messiah
4. "Hear My Voice", The Trial of the Chicago 7
5. "Husavik", Eurovision Song Contest
6. "Turntables", All In: The Fight for Democracy
7. "Wuhan Flu", Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
8. "Rain Song", Minari
9. "Green", Sound of Metal
10. "Loyal Brave True", Mulan

Sound

1. Sound of Metal
2. Mank
3. Soul
4. Tenet
5. Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
6. News of the World
7. Greyhound
8. Nomadland
9. The Midnight Sky
10. The Trial of the Chicago 7

Visual Effects

1. Tenet
2. The Midnight Sky
3. Mulan
4. Mank
5. Welcome to Chechnya
6. Birds of Prey
7. The One and Only Ivan
8. Soul
9. Love and Monsters
10. Bloodshot

Animated Feature

1. Soul
2. Wolfwalkers
3. Onward
4. Over the Moon
5. Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon
6. The Croods: A New Age
7. The Willoughbys
8. Earwig and the Witch
9. Trolls World Tour
10. No. 7 Cherry Lane


International Feature
I think that A Sun from Taiwan, which has recently been getting some notice by critics and audiences, will be the surprise here.

1. Another Round (Denmark)
2. Quo Vadis, Aida? (Bosnia and Herzegovina)
3. Collective (Romania)
4. La Llorona (Guatemala)
5. Two of Us (France)
6. Dear Comrades! (Russia)
7. A Sun (Taiwan)
8. Night of the Kings (Cote d'Ivoire)
9. I'm No Longer Here (Mexico)

Documentary Feature

1. Time
2. Collective
3. Welcome to Chechnya
4. Dick Johnson is Dead
5. Boys State
6. Crip Camp
7. All In: The Fight for Democracy
8. My Octopus Teacher
9. The Truffle Hunters
10. 76 Days

TALLIES
Films With More Than One Nomination
Mank - 13
Ma Rainey's Black Bottom - 8
Minari - 7
Nomadland - 6
Sound of Metal - 6
The Trial of the Chicago 7 - 6
News of the World - 5
Promising Young Woman - 5
One Night in Miami - 4
Soul- 4
Tenet - 4
The Father - 3
Mulan - 3
Da 5  Bloods - 2
Emma. - 2
Judas and the Black Messiah - 2
The Midnight Sky - 2
Welcome to Chechnya - 2

Stuff Is Neat

To get myself writing on a regular basis, I'm initiating a proposal: I'll start writing two (or three) articles a week that fit into a theme: stuff is neat.

These will be posts that act as crash-courses into small subjects, ranging from the New Hollywood to quarks, from sugar refining to the Suez Canal crisis. The Stuff is Neat series will reflect my jack-of-all-trades background. For those that don't know, I now have three degrees: a Bachelors of Science in Honours Science with a minor in Earth Sciences, a Masters of Arts in Film Studies, and most recently, a Masters of Museum Studies. In between the MA and MMSt I worked on a PhD in English and Film Studies -- although that's another story as to why I didn't finish. In high school, my favourite subject was human geography. In essence, I've always been interested in knowledge in all its forms, and this series will try to be as eclectic as possible.

So what can you (and I!) expect to learn? Think of a university and its faculties: I'll try to delve into material from all of them. I'll veer into the arts, sciences, engineering, and mathematics, in addition to topics that go beyond academia. What the heck is epistemology? How does one change a tire? What material should I use when remodelling a kitchen counter? What were the highlights of sports in the 1970s?

This is something I've wanted to do for a long time, and now that I find myself with extra time, it's the moment to do something about it. Over this next week, I'll begin with three articles: the origins of rock 'n' roll, a cooking process called nixtamalization that involves corn and lime, and a topic close to my heart: guinea pigs!

Over time, if this picks up an audience, I may even ask for guest articles, and of course I'll be asking for suggestions. What is a topic that you think everyone should know about?

Wish me luck!