Oscar Nominations 2019 Reaction

83/106

About par for course for me, which is to say: pretty good! Called Roma getting in the sound categories, my 'No Guts, No Glory' prediction of Ballad of Buster Scruggs getting in song came out correct (surprisingly!)--but didn't expect it to get 3 nominations!--and got all 8 Picture nominees.
Surprises: Both Farrelly and Cooper missing Director (Cooper is a huge shock!), Marina de Tavira making Supporting Actress, Won't You Be My Neighbour? missing, and First Man's score being omitted, along with the film vastly underperforming with only 4 nominations.

Best Picture

1. Roma
2. Green Book
3. A Star is Born
4. BlacKkKlansman
5. Vice
6. Bohemian Rhapsody
7. Black Panther
8. The Favourite

8/8

Director

1. Alfonso Cuaron, Roma
3. Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman
5. Adam McKay, Vice
6. Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite
9. Pawel Pawilkowski, Cold War

3/5

Actress

1. Glenn Close, The Wife
2. Lady Gaga, A Star is Born
3. Olivia Colman, The Favourite
4. Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
6. Yalitza Aparicio, Roma

4/5

Actor

1. Christian Bale, Vice
2. Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born
3. Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
4. Viggo Mortensen, Green Book
7. Willem Dafoe, At Eternity's Gate

4/5

Supporting Actress
Marina de Tavira made it in, wow! I almost had her in my top 10, but then decided that it was too unlikely. I guess not!

1. Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk
2. Amy Adams, Vice
3. Emma Stone, The Favourite
4. Rachel Weisz, The Favourite
-. Marina de Tavira, Roma

4/5

Supporting Actor

1. Mahershala Ali, Green Book
2. Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
4. Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman
5. Sam Rockwell, Vice
6. Sam Elliot, A Star is Born

4/5

Original Screenplay

1. Roma
2. The Favourite
3. Green Book
4. Vice
5. First Reformed

5/5

Adapted Screenplay

1. BlacKkKlansman
2. If Beale Street Could Talk
3. Can You Ever Forgive Me?
4. A Star is Born
-. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs

4/5

Editing
Roma and First Man missing here could be attributed to their 'slow' pacing.

3. Vice
5. The Favourite
6. BlacKkKlansman
7. Bohemian Rhapsody
10. Green Book

2/5

Cinematography

1. Roma
3. The Favourite
4. A Star is Born
6. Cold War
-. Never Look Away

3/5

Production Design

1. The Favourite
2. Mary Poppins Returns
3. Black Panther
4. Roma
5. First Man

5/5

Costume Design

1. The Favourite
2. Mary Poppins Returns
3. Mary Queen of Scots
4. Black Panther
-. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs

4/5

Makeup and Hairstyling

1. Vice
2. Mary Queen of Scots
5. Border

2/3

Original Score
First Man missing score is kinda a big deal, considering it was considered to be the possible winner by many.

2. If Beale Street Could Talk
3. Mary Poppins Returns
4. Isle of Dogs
5. BlacKkKlansman
6. Black Panther

4/5

Original Song

1. "Shallow", A Star is Born
2. "All the Stars", Black Panther
3. "I'll Fight", RBG
5. "The Place Where the Lost Things Go", Mary Poppins Returns
9. "When a Cowboy Trades His Spurs for Wings", The Ballad of Buster Scruggs

4/5

Sound Mixing

1. First Man
2. Roma
4. A Star is Born
5. Bohemian Rhapsody
6. Black Panther

4/5

Sound Editing

1. First Man
2. Black Panther
3. A Quiet Place
4. Roma
8. Bohemian Rhapsody

4/5

Visual Effects

1. Avengers: Infinity War
2. First Man
3. Ready Player One
6. Solo: A Star Wars Story
9. Christopher Robin

3/5

Animated Feature

1. Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
2. Incredibles 2
3. Isle of Dogs
4. Ralph Breaks the Internet
5. Mirai

5/5

Foreign Language

1. Roma (Mexico)
2. Shoplifters (Japan)
3. Cold War (Poland)
4. Capernaum (Lebanon)
6. Never Look Away (Germany)

4/5

Documentary Feature

2. Free Solo
3. RBG
4. Minding the Gap
6. Hale County This Morning, This Evening
9. Of Fathers and Sons

3/5

Tallies

The Favourite - 10
Roma - 10
A Star is Born - 8
Vice - 8
Black Panther - 7
BlacKkKlansman - 6
Green Book - 5 
Bohemian Rhapsody - 5
First Man - 4
Mary Poppins Returns - 4
The Ballad of Buster Scruggs - 3
If Beale Street Could Talk - 3
Can You Ever Forgive Me? - 3
Cold War - 3
Isle of Dogs - 2

Mary Queen of Scots -2 
Never Look Away - 2

RBG - 2

Oscar Nominations Predictions 2019

This has been a wild year with the Oscar race, with films that few thought would gain traction ending up winning major awards. (Here's looking at you, BoRhap and the Globes!) I find that the guilds and other industry awards have been pulled in multiple directions this year. Do they go for 'woke' and nominate BlacKkKlansman, and also celebrate where much-needed diversity and the popular have collided with Black Panther and Crazy Rich Asians? When the Popular Film category was announced, people went nuts; but then these films, along with Mary Poppins, A Star is Born, A Quiet Place and now notoriously Bohemian Rhapsody have been making their way onto the lists. But then we have a Netflix film racking up critic and industry awards with Roma, which may just lead the nominations and even win Best Picture. And we also have the more traditional awards fodder in Green Book; the fancy costume dramas The Favourite and Mary Queen of Scots (although Lanthimos' film is certainly not your typical costume drama); and the strangely left-out-of-the-big-categories, but racking-up-the-technical-categories of First Man. So we have a year in which each of these films seem to fit the 'winner' narrative, but none have come out ahead and declared themselves Frontrunner.

That all being said, it seems that the Oscar race has congealed around a dozen films, as you'll see in my predictions. Strangely, I have four films tied for leading the nominations, and none breaking the ten mark. Very much so a 'spread the love' kind of year.

You may also wonder where I get these rankings from. This year I have been following Sasha Stone of AwardsDaily more often than Kris Tapley of Variety, who hasn't been blogging as much lately. I also frequent GoldDerby, which happens to closely match my own gut instincts this time around. But it's also a stats game: how have the guilds gone? The Golden Globes? The BAFTAs? The Critics' Choice, and to a lesser degree, critics' groups like the NYFCC? I say to a lesser degree because the critics don't always care what the industry groups will like: hence we see winners like Regina Hall in Support the Girls, which very few people saw, Steven Yeuh in Burning and the sweep of Ethan Hawke in First Reformed. Of these, I'm only predicting Hawke, and just barely. But I may be a good prognosticator because I've seen few of these films this year, and am not basing these predictions on what I think deserves an award. It's not who you think should win, it's who's going to.


Best Picture

1. Roma
2. Green Book
3. A Star is Born
4. BlacKkKlansman
5. Vice
6. Bohemian Rhapsody
7. Black Panther
8. The Favourite
9. First Man
10. If Beale Street Could Talk
11. Mary Poppins Returns
12. A Quiet Place
13. Cold War
14. Eighth Grade
15. Crazy Rich Asians
16. First Reformed
17. Can You Ever Forgive Me?
18. Widows
19. Boy Erased
20. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs

Director

1. Alfonso Cuaron, Roma
2. Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born
3. Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman
4. Peter Farrelly, Green Book
5. Adam McKay, Vice
6. Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite
7. Damien Chazelle, First Man
8. Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk
9. Pawel Pawilkowski, Cold War
10. Ryan Coogler, Black Panther

Actress

1. Glenn Close, The Wife
2. Lady Gaga, A Star is Born
3. Olivia Colman, The Favourite
4. Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
5. Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns
6. Yalitza Aparicio, Roma
7. Toni Collette, Hereditary
8. Nicole Kidman, Destroyer
9. Viola Davis, Widows
10. Saoirse Ronan, Mary Queen of Scots

Actor

1. Christian Bale, Vice
2. Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born
3. Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
4. Viggo Mortensen, Green Book
5. Ethan Hawke, First Reformed
6. John David Washington, BlacKkKlansman
7. Willem Dafoe, At Eternity's Gate
8. Lucas Hedges, Boy Erased
9. Ryan Gosling, First Man
10. Robert Redford, The Old Man and the Gun

Supporting Actress

1. Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk
2. Amy Adams, Vice
3. Emma Stone, The Favourite
4. Rachel Weisz, The Favourite
5. Claire Foy, First Man
6. Nicole Kidman, Boy Erased
7. Emily Blunt, A Quiet Place
8. Margot Robbie, Mary Queen of Scots
9. Michelle Yeoh, Crazy Rich Asians
10. Natalie Portman, Vox Lux

Supporting Actor

1. Mahershala Ali, Green Book
2. Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
3. Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy
4. Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman
5. Sam Rockwell, Vice
6. Sam Elliot, A Star is Born
7. Michael B. Jordan, Black Panther
8. Russell Crowe, Boy Erased
9. Daniel Kaluuya, Widows
10. Steve Carell, Vice

Original Screenplay

1. Roma
2. The Favourite
3. Green Book
4. Vice
5. First Reformed
6. Eighth Grade
7. A Quiet Place
8. Sorry to Bother You
9. Bohemian Rhapsody
10. Cold War

Adapted Screenplay

1. BlacKkKlansman
2. If Beale Street Could Talk
3. Can You Ever Forgive Me?
4. A Star is Born
5. Black Panther
6. First Man
7. The Death of Stalin
8. Widows
9. Leave No Trace
10. Beautiful Boy

Editing

1. Roma
2. First Man
3. Vice
4. A Star is Born
5. The Favourite
6. BlacKkKlansman
7. Bohemian Rhapsody
8. Black Panther
9. Widows
10. Green Book

Cinematography

1. Roma
2. First Man
3. The Favourite
4. A Star is Born
5. If Beale Street Could Talk
6. Cold War
7. Black Panther
8. Bohemian Rhapsody
9. Mary Poppins Returns
10. A Quiet Place

Production Design

1. The Favourite
2. Mary Poppins Returns
3. Black Panther
4. Roma
5. First Man
6. A Star is Born
7. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald
8. Mary Queen of Scots
9. Crazy Rich Asians
10. Bohemian Rhapsody

Costume Design

1. The Favourite
2. Mary Poppins Returns
3. Mary Queen of Scots
4. Black Panther
5. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald
6. Bohemian Rhapsody
7. Crazy Rich Asians
8. First Man
9. A Star is Born
10. Colette

Makeup and Hairstyling

1. Vice
2. Mary Queen of Scots
3. Suspiria
4. Black Panther
5. Border
6. Bohemian Rhapsody
7. Stan and Ollie

Original Score

1. First Man
2. If Beale Street Could Talk
3. Mary Poppins Returns
4. Isle of Dogs
5. BlacKkKlansman
6. Black Panther
7. A Quiet Place
8. Annihalation
9. Vice
10. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs

Original Song

1. "Shallow", A Star is Born
2. "All the Stars", Black Panther
3. "I'll Fight", RBG
4. "Trip a Little Light Fantastic", Mary Poppins Returns
5. "The Place Where the Lost Things Go", Mary Poppins Returns
6. "Girl in the Movies", Dumplin'
7. "Revelation", Boy Erased
8. "Suspirium", Suspiria
9. "When a Cowboy Trades His Spurs for Wings", The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
10. "A Place Called Slaughter Race", Ralph Breaks the Internet

Sound Mixing

1. First Man
2. Roma
3. A Quiet Place
4. A Star is Born
5. Bohemian Rhapsody
6. Black Panther
7. Mary Poppins Returns
8. Mission: Impossible - Fallout
9. Ready Player One
10. Avengers: Infinity War

Sound Editing

1. First Man
2. Black Panther
3. A Quiet Place
4. Roma
5. Mission: Impossible - Fallout
6. Ready Player One
7. A Star is Born
8. Bohemian Rhapsody
9. Incredibles 2
10. Avengers: Infinity War

Visual Effects

1. Avengers: Infinity War
2. First Man
3. Ready Player One
4. Mary Poppins Returns
5. Black Panther
6. Solo: A Star Wars Story
7. Welcome to Marwen
8. Ant-Man and the Wasp
9. Christopher Robin
10. Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom

Animated Feature

1. Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
2. Incredibles 2
3. Isle of Dogs
4. Ralph Breaks the Internet
5. Mirai
6. The Grinch
7. Early Man
8. Smallfoot
9. Tito and the Birds
10. Hotel Transylvania 3

Foreign Language

1. Roma (Mexico)
2. Shoplifters (Japan)
3. Cold War (Poland)
4. Capernaum (Lebanon)
5. Burning (South Korea)
6. Never Look Away (Germany)
7. The Guilty (Denmark)
8. Birds of Passage (Colombia)
9. Ayka (Kazakhstan)

Documentary Feature

1. Won't You Be My Neighbour?
2. Free Solo
3. RBG
4. Minding the Gap
5. Three Identical Strangers
6. Hale County This Morning, This Evening
7. Shirkers
8. Crime + Punishment
9. Of Fathers and Sons
10. The Silence of Others

I don't normally do the shorts: Live Action Short, Animated Short, Documentary Short... but I'm sure that Bao will make it in for Animated, as will Bilby.

Tallies

The Favourite - 9
First Man - 9
Roma - 9
A Star is Born - 9
Vice - 8
Black Panther - 7
Mary Poppins Returns - 7
If Beale Street Could Talk - 5
BlacKkKlansman - 5
Green Book - 5 
Bohemian Rhapsody - 3
Can You Ever Forgive Me? - 3
First Reformed - 2
Isle of Dogs - 2

Mary Queen of Scots -2 

A Quiet Place - 2
RBG - 2
Mission: Impossible - Fallout - 1
Avengers: Infinity War - 1
Ready Player One - 1
Cold War - 1
Beautiful Boy - 1
Fantastic Beasts 2 - 1
Shoplifters - 1
Capernaum - 1
Burning - 1
Suspiria - 1
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse - 1
Ralph Breaks the Internet - 1
Mirai - 1
Won't You Be My Neighbour? - 1
Free Solo - 1
Minding the Gap - 1
Three Identical Strangers - 1

Oscar Predictions 2018

This year has been a strange one, in that there is still not a major frontrunner that has all the stats behind it. The film that we're mostly predicting, Three Billboards, is lacking a director nomination. The Shape of Water would then be the one to go for -- but it missed the all-important SAG nomination for ensemble. This seems to be a very important stat to note, as the Academy is made mostly of actors. We have to think about which films will be eliminated first, and then which films will be ranked #2 and #3 on their ballots. It seems that Three Billboards may be the consensus choice, rather than The Shape of Water, as it won the Globe, the SAG, and now the BAFTA, another organization that is dominated by the actors' branch. Then what about Get Out or Lady Bird? I think these two films are the biggest threats to make a 'surprise' win, as they also seem to be both consensus choices and passion-vote grabbers... but of the two, I think it would be the generally pleasant Lady Bird, rather than the somewhat divisive Get Out (i.e. there are more people who dislike Get Out than Lady Bird, even if it's still a small number, as well as the 'genre' hurdle for a horror film to win BP).

So how does this add up? By making a ranked list. It looks like the battle is between Three Billboards and Shape, with Lady Bird and Get Out as possible spoilers. (Although -- I wouldn't rule out a shocker of a win for the likely Adapted Screenplay winner Call Me By Your Name.)

Best Picture
1. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
2. The Shape of Water
3. Lady Bird
4. Get Out
5. Call Me By Your Name
6. Dunkirk
7. Phantom Thread
8. Darkest Hour
9. The Post

Director
A slam dunk for del Toro, making all of the Three Amigos to be Oscar winners for Directing. Olé!
Will Win: Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water
Could Win, I Guess?: Jordan Peele, Get Out

Actress
Also a slam dunk for McDormand.
Will Win: Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Could Win: Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird

Actor
Is Oldman as strong as we think he is? Some are suspecting a Chalamet spoiler, given the greater acclaim for his film.
Will Win: Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
Could Win: Timothée Chalamet, Call Me By Your Name

Supporting Actress
Early in the season, it looked like a close battle between Metcalf and Janey, but Janey has pulled ahead.
Will Win: Allison Janey, I, Tonya
Could Win: Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird

Supporting Actor
Also a close battle early in the season, but it looks like Rockwell has this in the bag.
Will Win: Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Could Win: Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project

Original Screenplay
This will reveal a lot early in the night. If Three Billboards wins here, as I suspect it will, I don't think a Get Out or Lady Bird surprise is brewing. But if either of these films win, well... we know how the last few Oscars have played out. (Screenplay Win = Best Picture Win for Spotlight, Moonlight and Birdman) For the record, Get Out has been the consensus choice by pundits for the win here.
Will Win: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Could Win: Get Out
Maybe?: Lady Bird

Adapted Screenplay
Ivory has returned, and he will be rewarded.
Will Win: Call Me By Your Name
Far Behind: Mudbound

Editing
Three technical categories are a battle between these two films, but consensus says Dunkirk will reign supreme.
Will Win: Dunkirk
Could Win: Baby Driver

Cinematography
As I said before, Deakins looks to FINALY win... if a del Toro film doesn't win again.
Will Win: Blade Runner 2049
Could Win: The Shape of Water

Production Design
I'm having difficulties with this one, but Shape is probably winning here, and perhaps deservingly so.
Will Win: The Shape of Water
Could Win: Blade Runner 2049

Costume Design
It's a film about clothing. It's probably getting the Oscar for costume design.
Will Win: Phantom Thread
Could Win: Beauty and the Beast

Makeup and Hairstyling
Will Win: Darkest Hour
Far Behind: Wonder

Original Score
I felt that Shape's score was a weakness of the film, as it was just a bit overbearing at times... but evidently, people are disagreeing with me. But wouldn't a Johnny Greenwood win be awesome?
Will Win: The Shape of Water
Could Win: Phantom Thread

Original Song
Will Win: "Remember Me", Coco
Could Win: "The Mystery of Love", Call Me By Your Name

Sound Mixing
Will Win: Dunkirk
Could Win: Baby Driver

Sound Editing
Will Win: Dunkirk
Could Win: Baby Driver

Visual Effects
Surprisingly, the Planet of the Apes series hasn't won yet in this category. Maybe that's a sign it'll lose again? But for what? Blade Runner 2049 may be the spoiler.
Will Win: War for the Planet of the Apes
Could Win: Blade Runner 2049

Animated Feature
Slam dunk, again.
Will Win: Coco
Could Win, I Guess?: Loving Vincent

Documentary Feature
In which cinema treasure Agnès Varda will actually win an Oscar.
Will Win: Faces Places
Could Win: Icarus

Foreign Language Feature
The two films that are probably the most acclaimed --Palme d'Or winner The Square and Loveless-- are also the chilliest of the bunch. Hence, Chile sneaks in and takes the win for its audience pleaser.
Will Win: A Fantastic Woman
Could Win: The Square

Live Action Short
Will Win: DeKalb Elementary
Could Win: The Silent Child

Documentary Short
Will Win: Edith+Eddie
Could Win: Heaven is a Traffic Jam on the 405

Animated Short
And another slam dunk win for Dear Basketball, making Kobe Bryant an Oscar winner. Who woulda thunk it?
Will Win: Dear Basketball
Could Win: Lou
Then Again, What Do We Know?: Garden Party

Oscar Nominations Reaction 2018

My score this year is 84/107, which is pretty good, if I may say so myself. Then again, there were few surprises this year. The Shape of Water leads with 13 nominations, followed by Dunkirk with 8. Darkest Hour and Phantom Thread both did better than expected, racking up 6 nominations each. Phantom Thread surprised in Picture and Director, as well as a minor surprise in Supporting Actress; definitely didn't see that directing nom coming. Who missed? McDonagh in Director, James Franco in Lead Actor, Armie Hammer and Hong Chau in the supporting categories, In the Fade, Jane and City of Ghosts.

Now on to Phase 2!

Best Picture
1. The Shape of Water
2. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
3. Lady Bird
4. Get Out
5. Dunkirk
6. Call Me by Your Name
7. The Post
12. Darkest Hour
14. Phantom Thread

7/9

Director
1. Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water
2. Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird
4. Jordan Peele, Get Out
5. Christoper Nolan, Dunkirk
-. Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread

4/5

Actress
1. Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
2. Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water
3. Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird
4. Margot Robbie, I, Tonya
5. Meryl Streep, The Post

5/5

Actor
1. Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
2. Timothée Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name
3. Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out
4. Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread
7. Denzel Washington, Roman Israel, Esq.

4/5

Supporting Actress
1. Alison Janney, I, Tonya
2. Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird
3. Mary J. Blige, Mudbound
5. Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water
8. Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread

4/5

Supporting Actor
1. Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
2. Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
3. Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
5. Christopher Plummer, All the Money in the World
6. Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water

4/5

Adapted Screenplay
1. Call Me by Your Name
2. The Disaster Artist
3. Molly's Game
4. Mudbound
6. Logan

4/5

Original Screenplay
1. Get Out
2. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
3. Lady Bird
4. The Shape of Water
6. The Big Sick

4/5

Cinematography
1. Blade Runner 2049
2. The Shape of Water
3. Dunkirk
4. Mudbound
5. Darkest Hour

5/5

Editing
1. Dunkirk
2. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
3. Baby Driver
4. The Shape of Water
6. I, Tonya

4/5

Production Design
1. The Shape of Water
2. Blade Runner 2049
3. Beauty and the Beast
5. Darkest Hour
6. Dunkirk

4/5

Costume Design
1. Phantom Thread
2. Beauty and the Beast
3. The Shape of Water
7. Darkest Hour
-. Victoria & Abdul

3/5

Hairstyling and Makeup
1. Darkest Hour
2. Wonder
6. Victoria & Abdul

2/3

Original Score
1. The Shape of Water
2. Dunkirk
4. Phantom Thread
5. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
-. Star Wars: The Last Jedi

4/5

Original Song
1. "Remember Me", Coco
3. "This is Me", The Greatest Showman
4. "Mystery of Love", Call Me by Your Name
5. "Mighty River", Mudbound
6. "Stand Up for Something", Marshall

4/5

Sound Mixing
1. Dunkirk
2. The Shape of Water
3. Blade Runner 2049
4. Baby Driver
5. Star Wars: The Last Jedi

5/5

Sound Editing
1. Dunkirk
2. The Shape of Water
3. Blade Runner 2049
4. Baby Driver
5. Star Wars: The Last Jedi

5/5

Visual Effects
1. War for the Planet of the Apes
2. Blade Runner 2049
3. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
7. Kong: Skull Island
9. Guardians of the Galaxy, vol. 2

3/5

Foreign Language
2. A Fantastic Woman
3. Loveless
4. The Insult
5. The Square
8. On Body and Soul

4/5

Animated Feature
1. Coco
2. The Breadwinner
3. Loving Vincent
6. The Boss Baby
-. Ferdinand

3/5

Documentary Feature
3. Faces Places
5. Icarus
6. Strong Island
8. Last Men in Aleppo
-. Abacus: Small Enough to Jail

2/5

84/107

SCOREBOARD
The Shape of Water - 13
Dunkirk - 8
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri - 7
Darkest Hour - 6
Phantom Thread - 6
Blade Runner 2049 - 5
Lady Bird - 5
Mudbound - 4
Call Me by Your Name - 4
Get Out - 4
Star Wars: The Last Jedi - 4
Baby Driver - 3
I, Tonya - 3
The Post - 2
Beauty and the Beast - 2
Coco - 2
Victoria and Abdul - 2
The Disaster Artist - 1
The Florida Project - 1
Wonder - 1

Oscar Nominations Predictions 2018

Best Picture
So what's it gonna be? In a wildly unpredictable year for frontrunners, we have also settled down on around a dozen films that seem to be 'in the running' for multiple awards. I don't think we're going to get ten nominees this year, but I'm very confident about this top 6.

1. The Shape of Water
2. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
3. Lady Bird
4. Get Out
5. Dunkirk
6. Call Me by Your Name
7. The Post
8. The Florida Project
9. I, Tonya
10. Mudbound
11. The Big Sick
12. Darkest Hour
13. Blade Runner 2049
14. Phantom Thread
15. Molly's Game
16. Wonder Woman
17. A Ghost Story
18. Coco
19. The Disaster Artist
20. mother!

Director
Who's gonna be the directors' surprise this year? This makes me giggle a bit, given my well-known dislike for him, but I think it's going to be Nolan. I just don't see the industry getting excited over Dunkirk, and if he's missed before --multiple times-- I see the argument that he'll be the big snub. But I've seen people suggest Peele will be the man out. So who will replace them? My feeling is that Guadagnino's film has a lot of passionate supporters, and that Baker will appeal to the directors' branch. I'm expecting one of them to make it in. Really, the only three I feel most sure about are del Toro, Gerwig, and McDonagh.

1. Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water
2. Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird
3. Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
4. Jordan Peele, Get Out
5. Christoper Nolan, Dunkirk
6. Luca Guadagnino, Call Me by Your Name
7. Sean Baker, The Florida Project
8. Steven Spielberg, The Post
9. Dee Rees, Mudbound
10. Denis Villeneuve, Blade Runner 2049

Actress
A fantastic year for actresses, many have settled on this top 5.
1. Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
2. Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water
3. Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird
4. Margot Robbie, I, Tonya
5. Meryl Streep, The Post
6. Jessica Chastain, Molly's Game
7. Judi Dench, Victoria & Abdul
8. Annette Bening, Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool
9. Michelle Williams, All the Money in the World
10. Emma Stone, Battle of the Sexes

Actor
Have the various scandals impacted the race, especially for Franco? Probably not, given it broke only two days before nominees were due. Have enough voters seen Phantom Thread to secure the legendary Daniel Day-Lewis what is potentially his final Oscar nomination? Steve Carell's chances are slim anyways, but he has been variously pushed as both lead and supporting. And has Hollywood forgotten McAvoy's celebrated turn in that early-year film, Split?
1. Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
2. Timothée Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name
3. Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out
4. Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread
5. James Franco, The Disaster Artist
6. Tom Hanks, The Post
7. Denzel Washington, Roman Israel, Esq.
8. Jake Gyllenhaal, Stronger
9. Steve Carell, Battle of the Sexes
10. James McAvoy, Split

Supporting Actress
I think this is the most unstable acting category, with any of the top 7 making it in -- but Janney and Metcalf are locks.
1. Alison Janney, I, Tonya
2. Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird
3. Mary J. Blige, Mudbound
4. Hong Chau, Downsizing
5. Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water
6. Holly Hunter, The Big Sick
7. Tiffany Hadish, Girls' Trip
8. Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread
9. Catherine Keener, Get Out
10. Michelle Pfeiffer, mother!

Supporting Actor
Dafoe and Rockwell have been sweeping the season, with plenty of nom's for Harrelson, too. Hammer looks to be in, and many are suggesting Jenkins, too -- but I think Plummer will make the nomination given the circumstances surrounding the film. After the top 8, it becomes more of a crapshoot. Can you imagine Ray Romano, Oscar nominee?
1. Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
2. Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
3. Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
4. Armie Hammer, Call Me by Your Name
5. Christopher Plummer, All the Money in the World
6. Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water
7. Patrick Stewart, Logan
8. Michael Stuhlbarg, Call Me by Your Name
9. Ray Romano, The Big Sick
10. Michael Shannon, The Shape of Water

Adapted Screenplay
Looks like this one's pretty locked down, with Wonder and Logan battling it out for fifth. Yes, that would make the first superhero film nominated for a writing Oscar.
1. Call Me by Your Name
2. The Disaster Artist
3. Molly's Game
4. Mudbound
5. Wonder
6. Logan
7. The Lost City of Z
8. Wonder Woman
9. Blade Runner 2049
10. Wonderstruck

Original Screenplay
In a strange year, there are many more in play for Original rather than Adapted screenplay. I'm so unsure, I upped it to eleven possibilities. I think Lady Bird and Three Billboards are actually the safest, and despite putting it as first (I think there's plenty of passion out there), I wouldn't be shocked if Get Out misses the nomination.
1. Get Out
2. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
3. Lady Bird
4. The Shape of Water
5. I, Tonya
6. The Big Sick
7. Phantom Thread
8. The Post
9. Dunkirk
10. The Florida Project
11. Darkest Hour

Cinematography
Can Roger Deakins FINALLY win his Oscar, please? Oh ho ho!, says the Three Amigo.
1. Blade Runner 2049
2. The Shape of Water
3. Dunkirk
4. Mudbound
5. Darkest Hour
6. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
7. Call Me by Your Name
8. The Post
9. Phantom Thread
10. The Florida Project

Editing
1. Dunkirk
2. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
3. Baby Driver
4. The Shape of Water
5. Blade Runner 2049
6. I, Tonya
7. Get Out
8. The Post
9. Lady Bird
10. Molly's Game

Production Design
1. The Shape of Water
2. Blade Runner 2049
3. Beauty and the Beast
4. The Post
5. Darkest Hour
6. Dunkirk
7. Phantom Thread
8. Murder on the Orient Express
9. Call Me by Your Name
10. Mudbound

Costume Design
1. Phantom Thread
2. Beauty and the Beast
3. The Shape of Water
4. Murder on the Orient Express
5. I, Tonya
6. The Greatest Showman
7. Darkest Hour
8. The Post
9. Blade Runner 2049
10. Wonder Woman

Hairstyling and Makeup
1. Darkest Hour
2. Wonder
3. I, Tonya
4. Bright
5. Guardians of the Galaxy, vol. 2
6. Victoria & Abdul
7. Ghost in the Shell

Original Score
1. The Shape of Water
2. Dunkirk
3. The Post
4. Phantom Thread
5. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
6. Darkest Hour
7. Blade Runner 2049
8. Victoria & Abdul
9. Beauty and the Beast
10. The Greatest Showman

Original Song
1. "Remember Me", Coco
2. "Evermore", Beauty and the Beast
3. "This is Me", The Greatest Showman
4. "Mystery of Love", Call Me by Your Name
5. "Mighty River", Mudbound
6. "Stand Up for Something", Marshall
7. "Prayers for this World", Cries from Syria
8. "Never Forget", Murder on the Orient Express
9. "I Don't Wanna Live Forever", Fifty Shades Darker
10. "Visions of Gideon", Call Me by Your Name

Sound Mixing
1. Dunkirk
2. The Shape of Water
3. Blade Runner 2049
4. Baby Driver
5. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
6. Wonder Woman
7. The Greatest Showman
8. Coco
9. Life
10. Get Out

Sound Editing
1. Dunkirk
2. The Shape of Water
3. Blade Runner 2049
4. Baby Driver
5. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
6. War for the Planet of the Apes
7. Wonder Woman
8. Get Out
9. Life
10. Only the Brave

Visual Effects
1. War for the Planet of the Apes
2. Blade Runner 2049
3. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
4. Okja
5. Dunkirk
6. The Shape of Water
7. Kong: Skull Island
8. Alien: Covenant
9. Guardians of the Galaxy, vol. 2
10. Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets

Foreign Language
1. In the Fade
2. A Fantastic Woman
3. Loveless
4. The Insult
5. The Square
6. Foxtrot
7. The Wound
8. On Body and Soul
9. Felicite

Animated Feature
1. Coco
2. The Breadwinner
3. Loving Vincent
4. The LEGO Batman Movie
5. Despicable Me 3
6. The Boss Baby
7. Cars 3
8. Captain Underpants: The First Epic Movie
9. Mary and the Witch's Flower
10. The Girl Without Hands

Documentary Feature
1. City of Ghosts
2. Jane
3. Faces Places
4. Chasing Coral
5. Icarus
6. Strong Island
7. LA 92
8. Last Men in Aleppo
9. Human Flow
10. An Inconvenient Sequel


SCOREBOARD
The Shape of Water - 11
Dunkirk - 8
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri - 8
Blade Runner 2049 - 6
I, Tonya - 6
Lady Bird - 5
Mudbound - 5
Call Me by Your Name - 4
Darkest Hour - 4
Get Out - 4
The Post - 4
Beauty and the Beast - 3
Phantom Thread - 3
Star Wars: The Last Jedi - 3
Baby Driver - 2
Coco - 2
The Disaster Artist - 2
The Florida Project - 2
Wonder - 2

Oscar Predictions 2017

This should be a cakewalk for La La Land this year, as I'm expecting it to sweep the categories. Picture, Director and Actress are almost givens, as is Score, Song and Sound Mixing. In Original Screenplay, it's a toss-up between the film and Lonergan's Manchester by the Sea; will the Academy want to award this indie darling here, seeing that Denzel Washington looks to beat the previously anointed Casey Affleck? In the craft categories, Cinematography is La La Land's best bet, with Hacksaw Ridge giving it competition for Editing. In Production Design, I'm still expecting it to win despite the film's rather modest design --but remember, it's Best design, not Most design, and I'm quite the cheerleader for the film. But if voters want to award something flashier, maybe it'll be Fantastic Beasts, or even Arrival. Speaking of a category in which something flashier usually wins, I'm expecting La La Land to lose in the category of Costume Design, bowing out to Jackie. So that leaves Sound Editing... and let's be honest, it's somewhat miraculous it was even nominated in this category, so I'm expecting Hacksaw Ridge to pick up this award.

So what does that leave us with? Viola Davis has been sweeping the season with Fences, and for good reason: she's excellent in it, and she's overdue for an award after losing Best Actress to Meryl Streep a few years ago. Supporting Actor is a curious category, as many are expecting Mahershala Ali to pick up the award for Moonlight --but at the BAFTAs and the Globes, he lost to Dev Patel and (the not nominated) Aaron Taylor-Johnson. If there's a snub-surprise on Sunday night, I'm expecting it to be here for Patel. Still, I'm predicting Ali to get one of Moonlight's two awards, the other one being Adapted Screenplay. But if there's an award that the beautiful Moonlight I feel doesn't deserve, it's for its screenplay. Arrival would be a better choice, and will the Academy agree with me? Probably not. (For the record, Moonlight is a masterpiece of editing, cinematography and acting, but I think its screenplay is a bit... well, thin.) But I digress.

Makeup and Hairstyling should go to Star Trek Beyond, the second win in the category for the rebooted series. Visual effects will probably go The Jungle Book, but I feel that this is a category ripe for a surprise this year. For the three other feature categories, I'm going for Zootopia, OJ: Made in America and not Toni Erdmann, but The Salesman. Just a hunch that a lot of other predictors are also making, although don't be surprised if A Man Called Ove picks it up. (Erdmann is probably just too weird for the voters in this category.) And that leaves the shorts. Always a crapshoot. So let's go with The White Helmets over Joe's Violin in Doc Short, because, hey, why not. Animated Short is widely expected to go for Piper, and I agree. And finally, Live Action Short has prognosticators all over the place, as it usually does, but the lead is probably for Ennemis Interieurs. So let's go with that.

So that makes me believe that La La Land will win the night with 10 awards. Wow!

Best Picture
Will Win: La La Land
If Hell Freezes Over: Moonlight

Director
Will Win: Damien Chazelle, La La Land
If Hell Freezes Over: Barry Jenkins, Moonlight

Actress
Will Win: Emma Stone, La La Land
Might Win: Isabelle Huppert, Elle

Actor
Will Win: Denzel Washington, Fences
Might Win: Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea

Supporting Actress
Will Win: Viola Davis, Fences
Shocker: Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea

Supporting Actor
Will Win: Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
Might Win: Dev Patel, Lion

Original Screenplay
Will Win: La La Land
Might Win: Manchester by the Sea

Adapted Screenplay
Will Win: Moonlight
Might Win: Arrival

Editing
Will Win: La La Land
Might Win: Hacksaw Ridge

Cinematography
Will Win: La La Land
Might Win: Arrival

Production Design
Will Win: La La Land
Might Win: Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them

Costume Design
Will Win: Jackie
Might Win: La La Land

Makeup and Hairstyling
Will Win: Star Trek Beyond
Might Win: A Man Called Ove

Original Score
Will Win: La La Land
If Hell Freezes Over: Moonlight

Original Song
Will Win: "City of Stars", La La Land
Might Win: "Audition (The Fools Who Dream)", La La Land

Sound Mixing
Will Win: La La Land
Might Win: Hacksaw Ridge
Dark Horse: Arrival

Sound Editing
Will Win: Hacksaw Ridge
Might Win: Arrival
If There Really is a Sweep Goin' On: La La Land

Visual Effects
Will Win: The Jungle Book
Might Win: Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

Animated Feature
Will Win: Zootopia
Might Win: Kubo and the Two Strings

Foreign Language Feature
Will Win: The Salesman
Might Win: A Man Called Ove

Documentary Feature
Will Win: OJ: Made in America
Might Win: 13th

Animated Short
Will Win: Piper
Might Win: Pearl

Live Action Short
Will Win: Ennemis Interieurs
Might Win: Timecode
But Really, Who Knows?: La Femme et le TGV

Documentary Short
Will Win: The White Helmets
Might Win: Joe's Violin

Oscar Nominations Reaction 2017

89/107

Definitely one of my better years! The 'snubs' here are Amy Adams for Arrival missing out, maybe Hugh Grant from Florence Foster Jenkins, and in my mind, Rogue One missing out the Sound Editing. But overall, not too many surprises. We'll have to get used to Passengers being more nominated than Silence, though.

Best Picture

1. La La Land
2. Moonlight
3. Manchester by the Sea
4. Arrival
5. Lion
6. Hidden Figures
7. Fences
8. Hacksaw Ridge
9. Hell or High Water

9/9

Director

1. Damien Chazelle, La La Land
2. Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
3. Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea
4. Denis Villeneuve, Arrival
6. Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge

4/5

Actress

1. Emma Stone, La La Land
2. Natalie Portman, Jackie
4. Isabelle Huppert, Elle
5. Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins
7. Ruth Negga, Loving

4/5

Actor

1. Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
2. Denzel Washington, Fences
3. Ryan Gosling, La La Land
4. Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic
5. Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge
(7. Tom Hanks, Sully was listed as the 6th nomination on the website!)

5/5

Supporting Actress

1. Viola Davis, Fences
2. Michelle Williams, Manchester bu the Sea
3. Naomie Harris, Moonlight
4. Nicole Kidman, Lion
5. Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures

5/5

Supporting Actor

1. Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
2. Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water
3. Dev Patel, Lion
5. Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea
9. Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals

4/5

Adapted Screenplay

1. Moonlight
2. Arrival
3. Hidden Figures
4. Fences
5. Lion

5/5

Original Screenplay

1. La La Land
2. Manchester by the Sea
3. Hell or High Water
4. The Lobster
10. 20th Century Women

4/5

Editing
1. La La Land
2. Arrival
3. Moonlight
4. Hacksaw Ridge
6. Hell or High Water

4/5

Cinematography
1. La La Land
2. Arrival
3. Moonlight
4. Silence
5. Lion

5/5

Production Design
1. La La Land
2. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
4. Hail, Caesar!
5. Arrival
8. Passengers

4/5

Costume Design
1. Jackie
2. La La Land
3. Florence Foster Jenkins
4. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
6. Allied

4/5

Makeup and Hairstyling
2. Star Trek Beyond
4. A Man Called Ove
7. Suicide Squad

1/3

Original Score
1. La La Land
2. Lion
3. Moonlight
4. Jackie
-. Passengers

4/5

Original Song
1. "City of Stars", La La Land
2. "Audition (The Fools Who Dream)", La La Land
4. "How Far I'll Go", Moana
-. "Can't Stop The Feeling", Trolls
-. "The Empty Chair", JimL The James Foley Story

3/5

Sound Mixing
1. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
2. La La Land
3. Hacksaw Ridge
5. Arrival
8. 13 Hours

4/5

Sound Editing

2. Hacksaw Ridge
3. Arrival
4. Deepwater Horizon
5. La La Land
9. Sully

4/5

Visual Effects
1. The Jungle Book
2. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
3. Deepwater Horizon
5. Doctor Strange
6. Kubo and the Two Strings

4/5

Animated Feature
1. Zootopia
2. Moana
3. Kubo and the Two Strings
4. The Red Turtle
5. My Life as a Zucchini

5/5

Foreign Language
Despite the critical thrashing, I have a feeling Dolan's film is getting in.
1. Toni Erdmann (Germany)
2. A Man Called Ove (Sweden)
3. The Salesman (Iran)
4. Land of Mine (Denmark)
8. Tanna (Australia)

4/5

Documentary Feature
1. OJ: Made in America
2. 13th
3. I Am Not Your Negro
6. Fire at Sea
7. Life, Animated

3/5

TALLIES
La La Land - 14
Arrival - 8
Moonlight - 8
Manchester by the Sea - 6
Lion - 6
Hacksaw Ridge - 6
Fences - 4
Hell or High Water - 4
Jackie - 3
Hidden Figures - 3
Florence Foster Jenkins - 2
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story - 2
Deepwater Horizon - 2
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them - 2
Moana - 2
Kubo and the Two Strings - 2
Passengers - 2
Nocturnal Animals - 1