Picture: Argo
Director: Russell
Actress: Lawrence
Actor: Day-Lewis
Supp. Actress: Hathaway
Supp. Actor: DeNiro
Adapted Screenplay: Argo
Original Screenplay: Zero Dark Thirty
Cinematography: Life of Pi
Editing: Argo
Production Design: Anna Karenina
Costume Design: Anna Karenina
Makeup & Hairstyling: The Hobbit
Original Score: Life of Pi
Original Song: Skyfall
Sound Mixing: Les Misérables
Sound Editing: Zero Dark Thirty
Visual Effects: Life of Pi
Foreign: Amour
Animated Feature: Wreck-It Ralph
Animated Short: Paperman
Documentary Feature: Searching for Sugar Man
Documentary Short: Open Heart
Live Action Short: Curfew
Analysis and my alternative choices after the jump.
Best Picture
Amour
Argo
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Django Unchained
Les Misérables
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Silver Linings Playbook
Zero Dark Thirty
The buzz is there. The box office, critical acclaim, audience love, precursor awards... all there. Argo will win on Sunday, unless Silver Linings Playbook does a Hail Mary pass and nabs it away. Both of the films should do very well on the ranked order ballots, and this will make all the difference.
Most Likely: Argo
Could Win: Silver Linings Playbook
Dark Horse: Lincoln
Should Win: Silver Linings Playbook
Director
Michael Haneke, Amour
Benh Zeitlin, Beasts of the Southern Wild
Ang Lee, Life of Pi
Steven Spielberg, Lincoln
David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook
Most are predicting a race between Spielberg and Lee, but I'm going out on a limb and predicting Russell. Let me explain my reasoning through an imagined monologue of a typical Academy voter:
"Hmm, next category: Director. Oh yeah! Affleck isn't here, so I can't vote for him. Who else is there? Haneke? Nah, no Old People Dying for me, I didn't watch that. Zeitlin? Too young, and movie was a bit weird. How about Lee and Spielberg? Well, they already have Oscars. But Russell? Yeah, Russell! I loved Silver Linings. And he doesn't have an Oscar yet! I liked The Fighter, too. Russell it is."
I really don't think that the average voter is willing to give Spielberg another Oscar, especially for a film that's been accused of being a bit dry. I think Lee is the more likely, given the directorial vision for the film and as a sort of makeup for that Brokeback Mountain fiasco. But Russell's film has wide support, nominations in all the acting categories (usually seen as a directorial feat), and he's never won before despite a strong slew of films. I think his personal behaviour may hamper his chances somewhat --remember his Lily Tomlin scream fest?-- but nevertheless, I'm going for Russell.
Will Win: David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook
Could Win: Ang Lee, Life of Pi or Steven Spielberg, Lincoln
Should Win: Michael Haneke, Amour
Actress
Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
Emmanuelle Riva, Amour
Quvenzhané Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild
Naomi Watts, The Impossible
Like many of the other categories, 2012 provided us with a rather plentiful bounty of Oscar-calibre performances.
The category heated up early in the year with a flurry of praise showering young Quvenzhané Wallis in her firecracker performance in Sundance favourite Beasts of the Southern Wild. Many were already calling the race over, and there were a number of articles written about whether or not a new record would be set for the youngest performer to win a competitive Oscar. But when Silver Linings wowed audiences at TIFF, Lawrence became the new frontrunner, cementing her place as the new Hollywood 'it' girl. A short time later, it was last year's Hollywood success story Jessica Chastain who looked to be the new frontrunner in the category with some pretty hefty buzz; she still shouldn't be looked over as a possible winner, but her buzz has considerably lessened with the recent swell for veteran French actress Riva, who took the BAFTA a few weeks ago. Riva could very well end the season with a win that would surprise most audiences at home -- but the Oscar net has been shifting, and Riva may actually be the most predicted winner. Nevertheless, I feel that Lawrence will still take the prize, given that Amour may not be as widely viewed amongst the Academy. Watts will have to sit out again.
Will Win: Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
Could Win: Emmanuelle Riva, Amour
Should Win: Emmanuelle Riva, Amour
Should Have Been Here: Marion Cotillard, Rust and Bone or Helen Mirren, Hitchcock
Actor
Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook
Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
Hugh Jackman, Les Misérables
Joaquin Phoenix, The Master
Denzel Washington, Flight
Along with Supporting Actress, this is the safest category of the night. Daniel Day-Lewis has swept the circuit, and is on his way to pick up his third Academy Award. If there's anyone that may upset, it would be Jackman... but that's not happening.
Will Win: Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
Could Win: Hugh Jackman, Les Misérables
Should Win: Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook
Should Have Been Here: Denis Lavant, Holy Motors
Supporting Actress
Amy Adams, The Master
Sally Field, Lincoln
Anne Hathaway, Les Misérables
Helen Hunt, The Sessions
Jacki Weaver, Silver Linings Playbook
This category has been sealed ever since Hathaway crumbled in front of us with the Les Miz trailer so many months ago.
Will Win: Anne Hathaway, Les Misérables
Could Win: Sally Field, Lincoln
Should Win: Jacki Weaver, Silver Linings Playbook
Supporting Actor
Alan Arkin, Argo
Robert DeNiro, Silver Linings Playbook
Phillip Seymour Hoffman, The Master
Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln
Christoph Waltz, Django Unchained
In one of the tightest races in a very unpredictable year, I'm left somewhat at a loss as whom to predict. Tommy Lee Jones won the SAG, but Waltz won the Globe and Hoffmann a slew of critics' prizes and the Critic's Choice. So it would seem that one of these three would be the winner -- but what about DeNiro? He's a Hollywood icon in a well-liked film and a praised performance, he hasn't won since 1980's Raging Bull. Arkin seems to be in for the ride, but could he be the beneficiary of Argo goodwill, with voters throwing whatever they have at the film?
Supporting Actor is always one of the first awards to be handed out, and how it goes could be a sign of things to come later in the night. If DeNiro does pick it up, we could see Silver Linings picking up quite a few Oscars. If it's Jones, then Lincoln may show that it's not another 'respected but not loved' prestige film disappointment. Waltz and Hoffman would show that voting isn't headed towards a sweep for any film, and Arkin would show that a sweep is happening for Argo. So I have no idea what's happening in this category -- and I love it!
Will Win: Robert DeNiro, Silver Linings Playbook
Could Win: Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln
Should Win: Phillip Seymour Hoffman, The Master
Original Screenplay
Amour
Django Unchained
Flight
Moonrise Kingdom
Zero Dark Thirty
Yet another category in which the Oscar net is at a loss. It's a three-way split amongst the prognosticators, with Amour, Django and Zero Dark Thirty all having very good reasons as to why they should win. But I'm going to be a bit controversial and rule out Haneke's Amour: I get the feeling that many Oscar voters haven't seen the film, which is a shame. So it's then between two Oscar winners: Boal and Tarantino. Will ZD30's controversy help or hinder its chances? I'm not sure, but I'm thinking that it may actually help given the political leanings of Hollywood. Django is surprisingly well-liked, with many anonymous Academy voters declaring their love for the film. But it's also somewhat of a sloppy script, and Tarantino lost for the superior Basterds only a few years ago. I'm going for Boal.
Will Win: Zero Dark Thirty
Could Win: Django Unchained
Should Win: Zero Dark Thirty
Adapted Screenplay
Argo
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Lincoln
Life of Pi
Silver Linings Playbook
Consensus is predicting an Argo win here. I would like to say that Silver Linings may surprise here, but it's more likely that Lincoln would. There have been some accusations that Lincoln's script is too talky and a little bit dry, but I for one found it to be rather crisp and witty. We'll see how the night bends: an Argo sweep, or a Lincoln?
Will Win: Argo
Could Win: Silver Linings Playbook
Should Win: Silver Linings Playbook
Cinematography
Anna Karenina
Django Unchained
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Skyfall
Will Roger Deakins finally win for his stunning work on Skyfall? Ha! No.
More likely is Claudio Miranda's also stunning work on the visual marvel Life of Pi, which has been praised left and right.
Will Win: Life of Pi
Could Win: Skyfall
Should Win: Skyfall
Editing
Argo
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Silver Linings Playbook
Zero Dark Thirty
It's unlikely that Argo will lose steam. It's been winning the awards, features some showy editing (the much-discussed final sequence), and is the likely Best Picture victor. Behind it is Zero Dark Thirty, with even showier editing. I really can't see any of the others winning, particularly Lincoln.
Will Win: Argo
Could Win: Zero Dark Thirty
Should Win: Silver Linings Playbook
Production Design
Anna Karenina
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Les Misérables
Life of Pi
Lincoln
The most likely winner here is the elaborate work on Anna Karenina, but there's a chance that not enough voters have seen it, or the film's divisive nature would turn them off. Any of the nominees have a decent chance at winning, and the consensus winner of Karenina is only slightly ahead: others are suggesting that Les Misérables has a very good chance at picking up the prize. But will the film's rather haphazard cinematography reduce its chances here, given that many of the sets were blurred with shallow focus or hidden away in the background, behind the overbearing close-ups of the actors' faces? Life of Pi's emphasis on visual effects and a certain lack of obvious sets probably work against it, as does Lincoln's subtlety. I'm not aware of any prognosticators going for The Hobbit, but I certainly wouldn't rule it out.
Will Win: Anna Karenina
Could Win: Les Misérables
Should Win: Anna Karenina
Costume Design
Anna Karenina
Les Misérables
Lincoln
Mirror Mirror
Snow White and the Huntsman
The general rule for this category is period+royalty+dresses=WIN. Anna Karenina has this in spades, and is certainly the most likely to win here. Lincoln and Snow White are in for the ride, but Les Misérables has a chance here, just like in Production Design. The late Eiko Ishioka's designs for Mirror Mirror have received plenty of praise, and this could be a chance for the Academy to give the veteran designer a posthumous award (her only previous Oscar was for Coppola's Dracula), but I for one found the costumes too self-consiously wacky.
Will Win: Anna Karenina
Could Win: Les Misérables
Should Win: Anna Karenina
Makeup & Hairstyling
Hitchcock
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Les Misérables
A category that always likes to throw us curveballs. The Hobbit seems to be the most likely here, but don't rule out the showy, overwrought work on Les Misérables. Lots of mud and dirty and blood and bruises there.
Will Win: The Hobbit
Could Win: Les Misérables
Should Win: The Hobbit
Original Score
Anna Karenina
Argo
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Skyfall
Canadian composer and personal favourite Mychael Danna looks to win his first Oscar on Sunday. It's also his first nomination, being passed over for his work on Capote, Little Miss Sunshine, Moneyball and The Sweet Hereafter. Veteran composer and Spielberg go-to John Williams has been suggested as a possible alternative for his handsome work on Lincoln, but will the Academy feel that he's already won enough already? Newman's stylish work on Skyfall will probably be awarded through Adele's title song, and Anna Karenina and Argo are probably along for the ride.
Will Win: Life of Pi
Could Win: Lincoln
Should Win: Anna Karenina
Original Song
"Before My Time" from Chasing Ice
"Suddenly" from Les Misérables
"Pi's Lullaby" from Life of Pi
"Skyfall" from Skyfall
"Everybody Needs a Best Friend" from Ted
Superstar Adele will most likely pick up this award for the international hit "Skyfall". Really, can you envision anything else happening?
Will Win: "Skyfall"
Could Win: "Suddenly"
Should Win: "Skyfall"
Sound Mixing
Argo
Les Misérables
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Skyfall
Musicals tend to do very well in this category, and given the amount of press given surrounding its live-recording experiment, it's hard to see how Les Misérables could lose this one. If it does, it could be due to a sweep for Argo.
Will Win: Les Misérables
Could Win: Argo
Should Win: Life of Pi
Sound Editing
Argo
Django Unchained
Life of Pi
Skyfall
Zero Dark Thirty
Ugh. This category is always tough to call, and this year seems to be particularly so. I can see arguments for all of them save Django (sorry, Tarantino). Argo has the sweep factor; Life of Pi has big sequences, fantasy and animals; Skyfall is a stylish action flick that is well-loved; Zero Dark Thirty has tight, elaborate action sequences. So which one? I'm going with my gut here.
Will Win: Zero Dark Thirty
Could Win: Skyfall
Should Win: Zero Dark Thirty
Visual Effects
The Avengers
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Life of Pi
Prometheus
Snow White and the Huntsman
Finally, an easy category. Life of Pi has been sweeping the circuit.
Will Win: Life of Pi
Could Win: The Hobbit
Should Win: The Hobbit
Foreign Language Film
Amour (Austria)
Kon-Tiki (Norway)
No (Chile)
A Royal Affair (Denmark)
War Witch (Canada)
Another consensus pick, Amour is looking to continue the trend: no film that has been nominated for Best Picture has lost in Foreign Language Film. If there's a shocker, I'm going for Chile's No. Just because.
Will Win: Amour
Could Win: No
Should Win: n/a
Animated Feature Film
Brave
Frankenweenie
ParaNorman
The Pirates! Band of Misfits
Wreck-It Raph
I may have disliked the film, but it seems that everyone else has fallen for the goofy charm of Disney's Wreck-It Ralph. According to many, Pixar disappointed with Brave, and ParaNorman and The Pirates! don't seem to have much of a chance. Instead, Tim Burton's passion project Frankenweenie strikes me as the one that could possibly upset on Sunday. Burton has his fans amongst the Academy (despite regular snubs for Director), and the film was a critical, if not box-office, success.
Will Win: Wreck-It Ralph
Could Win: Frankenweenie
Should Win: n/a
Animated Short
Adam and Dog
Fresh Guacamole
Head Over Heels
Maggie Simpson in 'The Longest Daycare'
Paperman
Disney's sentimental romance Paperman, which preceded the likely Feature winner Wreck-It Ralph, has been a viral hit and is a major crowd-pleaser. I find it difficult to imagine another short taking the prize, given that Paperman has been making such a splash. But the team behind The Longest Daycare have been pushing hard with the advertising, and the Simpsons name does carry some weight; it also helps that the film is also fast and funny. But I would say that if another film is to challenge Paperman, it's the beautiful Adam and Dog.
Will Win: Paperman
Could Win: Adam and Dog
Should Win: Adam and Dog
Documentary Feature Film
5 Broken Cameras
The Gatekeepers
How to Survive a Plague
The Invisible War
Searching for Sugar Man
This category has been dominated by the rather light-weight but crowd-pleasing Searching for Sugar Man, and it's difficult to see how it could lose on Sunday. The Academy often throws us curveballs here, but I see no evidence that any of the other films have surged in popularity, acclaim or buzz.
Will Win: Searching for Sugar Man
Could Win: The Invisible War
Should Win: n/a
And the two impossible categories to predict.
Documentary Short
Inocente
King's Point
Mondays at Racine
Open Heart
Redemption
Consensus: Open Heart
Could Win: Inocente
Live Action Short
Asad
Buzkashi Boys
Curfew
Death of a Shadow (Dood van een Schaduw)
Henry
Consensus: Curfew
Could Win: Buzkashi Boys
If you're curious, Sasha Stone over at Awards Daily makes a handy comparison chart each year keeping track of all the Oscar net's predictions. Enjoy!
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