Oscar Nomination Predictions

Best Picture
I think passion votes will get Her and Inside Llewyn Davis into the mix, while the lack of passion makes Saving Mr. Banks in a riskier position. I'm not sure how to read Philomena and Blue Jasmine, both of which I suspect also harbour a significant block of passion votes. The top 4 are very safe bets.

1. 12 Years a Slave
2. Gravity
3. American Hustle
4. Captain Phillips
5. The Wolf of Wall Street
6. Nebraska
7. Her
8. Inside Llewyn Davis
9. Dallas Buyers Club
10. Saving Mr. Banks
11. Philomena
12. Blue Jasmine

Directing
I'm going with the DGA five, but am expecting there to be an omission -- my hunch is Scorsese.

1. Steve McQueen, 12 Years a Slave
2. Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity
3. David O. Russell, American Hustle
4. Paul Greengrass, Captain Phillips
5. Martin Scorsese, The Wolf of Wall Street
6. Alexander Payne, Nebraska
7. The Coen Brothers, Inside Llewyn Davis
8. Spike Jonze, Her
9. Woody Allen, Blue Jasmine
10. Jean-Marc Vallée, Dallas Buyers Club
11. John Lee Hancock, Saving Mr. Banks
12. Stephen Frears, Philomena

Actress in a Leading Role
These five actresses, all of whom have been SAG nominated, have been pretty stable the entire season, and I don't expect any major surprises here, unless it is a switch between Streep and Adams.

1. Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
2. Sandra Bullock, Gravity
3. Emma Thompson, Saving Mr. Banks
4. Judi Dench, Philomena
5. Meryl Streep, August: Osage County
6. Amy Adams, American Hustle
7. Kate Winslet, Labour Day
8. Brie Larson, Short Term 12
9. Julie Delpy, Before Midnight

Actor in a Leading Role
The top three are the safest bets. Redford seems to be in a much riskier position, missing out on key nominations (including the SAG), but I somehow feel that the performance speaks for itself and will sneak in. It's probably a foolish bet, as DiCaprio has apparently been campaigning hard and even won the Globe a few nights ago. Yet somehow I feel he'll be the big snub of the morning.

1. Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club

2. Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave

3. Bruce Dern, Nebraska

4. Robert Redford, All is Lost

5. Tom Hanks, Captain Phillips
6. Leonardo DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street

7. Forest Whitaker, The Butler

8. Christian Bale, American Hustle

9. Joaquin Phoenix, Her

10. Idris Elba, Mandela: The Long Walk to Freedom

11. Oscar Isaac, Inside Llewyn Davis

12. Michael B. Jordan, Fruitvale Station

Actress in a Supporting Role
The top six are battling it out for the nomination, with Lawrence and Nyong'o being the only real safe bets. I think the Academy will spring for Nebraska and bring Squibb along with it, leaving poor Hawkins out in the cold for what was truly a great performance and matching the SAG five. Let's hope they both can make it in and superstars Roberts and Winfrey are the precarious ones.

1. Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle
2. Lupita Nyong’o, 12 Years a Slave
3. Oprah Winfrey, The Butler
4. Julia Roberts, August: Osage County
5. June Squibb, Nebraska
6. Sally Hawkins, Blue Jasmine
7. Octavia Spencer, Fruitvale Station
8. Scarlett Johannson, Her
9. Margo Martindale, August: Osage County
10. Sarah Paulson, 12 Years a Slave

Actor in a Supporting Role
The top four are safe bets, and I'm already betting that Leto will be the big winner. The next three spots, however, could be reversed on any other day: I'm just not sure how they will fall into place. Gandolfini has the SAG nomination, Cooper has Hustle's buzz, and Hill... well, Hill has something. Interestingly, could McConnaughey or Hanks become double nominees this year? It's a distinct possibility.

1. Michael Fassbender, 12 Years a Slave
2. Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club
3. Barkhad Abdi, Captain Phillips
4. Daniel Brühl, Rush
5. Bradley Cooper, American Hustle
6. James Gandolfini, Enough Said
7. Jonah Hill, The Wolf of Wall Street
8. Matthew McConnaughey, Mud
9. Tom Hanks, Saving Mr. Banks
10. James Franco, Spring Breakers

Original Screenplay

1. American Hustle
2. Nebraska
3. Blue Jasmine
4. Her
5. Inside Llewyn Davis
6. Gravity
7. Dallas Buyers Club
8. Mud
9. Saving Mr. Banks
10. The Butler
11. Fruitvale Station
12. Prisoners

Adapted Screenplay


1. 12 Years a Slave
2. Captain Phillips
3. Philomena
4. Before Midnight
5. The Wolf of Wall Street
6. August: Osage County
7. Short Term 12
8. Blue is the Warmest Colour
9.
10.

Cinematography


1. Gravity
2. 12 Years a Slave
3. Nebraska
4. Prisoners
5. Inside Llewyn Davis
6. Captain Phillips
7. Her
8. Rush
9. The Grandmaster
10. Dallas Buyers Club

Editing
I'm rather comfortable with these five -- which means that something has to surprise, no?

1. Gravity
2. 12 Years a Slave
3. Captain Phillips
4. American Hustle
5. The Wolf of Wall Street
6. Rush
7. Nebraska
8. Her
9. Inside Llewyn Davis
10. Dallas Buyers Club

Production Design


1. 12 Years a Slave
2. The Great Gatsby
3. The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
4. Gravity
5. American Hustle
6. Inside Lewyn Davis
7. Saving Mr. Banks
8. Her
9. Oz the Great and Powerful
10.

Costume Design


1. The Great Gatsby
2. American Hustle
3. 12 Years a Slave
4. The Invisible Woman
5. Oz the Great and Powerful
6. Saving Mr. Banks
7. The Hunger Games: Catching Fire
8. The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
9. Inside Llewyn Davis
10. Dallas Buyers Club


Makeup and Hairstyling
I think beyond the top two, any could make it in to the final three. I'm going with Dallas Buyers Club because... well, why not?

1. American Hustle
2. Bad Grandpa
3. Dallas Buyers Club
4. The Great Gatsby
5. The Lone Ranger
6. The Hunger Games: Catching Fire
7. Hansel & Gretel: Witch Hunters

Original Score


1. Gravity
2. 12 Years a Slave
3. The Book Thief
4. Saving Mr. Banks
5. All is Lost
6. Rush
7. Her
8. Philomena
9. Captain Phillips
10. Frozen

Original Song
The top three here are the most likely to be nominated, particularly "Let It Go", which Disney has been campaigning hard on.

1. "Let it Go" from Frozen
2. "Young and Beautiful" from The Great Gatsby
3. "Ordinary Love" from Mandela: The Long Walk to Freedom
4. "Happy" from Despicable Me 2
5. "The Moon Song" from Her
6. "Atlas" from The Hunger Games: Catching Fire
7. "I See Fire" from The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
8. "Monsters University" from Monsters University
9. "My Lord Sunshine" from 12 Years a Slave
10. "In the Middle of the Night" from The Butler

Sound Mixing
Will Lone Survivor fall into the five? Will Rush be left in the cold? What about All is Lost -- will it make it in both sound categories, or only for Mixing? These two are always the most difficult to predict, and this year is no different.

1. Gravity
2. Captain Phillips
3. Rush
4. All is Lost
5. Inside Llewyn Davis
6. 12 Years a Slave
7. Frozen
8. Pacific Rim
9. Lone Survivor
10. Star Trek Into Darkness

Sound Editing


1. Gravity
2. Captain Phillips
3. Rush
4. All is Lost
5. Pacific Rim
6. 12 Years a Slave
7. Lone Survivor
8. The Hunger Games: Catching Fire
9. The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
10. Star Trek Into Darkness

Visual Effects
I'm confident with my top 3, but beyond that I'm not sure.

1. Gravity
2. The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
3. Pacific Rim
4. Iron Man 3
5. Star Trek Into Darkness
6. World War Z
7. Elysium
8. Thor: The Dark World
9. Oblivion
10. The Lone Ranger

Foreign Language

1. The Hunt
2. The Broken Circle Breakdown
3. The Great Beauty
4. Omar
5. Two Lives
6. The Grandmaster
7. The Notebook
8. An Episode in the Life of an Iron Picker

Animated Feature Film

1. Frozen
2. The Wind Rises
3. Monsters University
4. Despicable Me 2
5. The Croods
6. Ernest and Celestine
7. Epic

Documentary Feature
I suspect that Tim's Vermeer will make way for The Square, but there's this little part of me that is just comfortable with the five I have here.

1. Stories We Tell
2. Blackfish
3. The Act of Killing
4. 20 Feet from Stardom
5. Tim's Vermeer
6. The Square
7. The Armstrong Lie