Oscar Nominations Reaction

Mostly as expected this morning, with a few interesting switches here and there. Selma only received two nominations, better than Nightcrawler's one. The LEGO Movie was the only major snub here, in my evaluation, along with Life Itself -- something that Tapley and team called.

Best Picture
Interestingly, Foxcatcher misses here despite being nominated for Directing, Screenplay and two acting categories. Selma made it in after a hard campaign with lots of issues.
1. Boyhood
2. Birdman
3. The Imitation Game
4. The Grand Budapest Hotel
5. The Theory of Everything
6. American Sniper
8. Selma
9. Whiplash
7/8

Best Director
I love me my Bennett Miller, so I'm very happy to see him pop up here, and am also glad that Eastwood is out.
1. Richard Linklater, Boyhood
2. Alejandro González Iñárritu, Birdman
3. Mortem Tyldum, The Imitation Game
4. Wes Anderson, The Grand Budapest Hotel
10. Bennett Miller, Foxcatcher
4/5

Best Actress
One of only three categories I correctly predicted all nominees.
1. Julianne Moore, Still Alice
2. Reese Witherspoon, Wild
3. Roasmund Pike, Gone Girl
4. Felicity Jones, The Theory of Everything
5. Marion Cotillard, Two Days, One Night
5/5

Best Actor
1. Michael Keaton, Birdman
2. Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything
3. Benedict Cumberpatch, The Imitation Game
6. Bradley Cooper, American Sniper
7. Steve Carell, Foxcatcher
3/5

Best Supporting Actress
So, Laura Dern made it after all!
1. Particia Arquette, Boyhood
2. Meryl Streep, Into the Woods
3. Emma Stone, Birdman
4. Keira Knightley, The Imitation Game
8. Laura Dern, Wild
4/5

Best Supporting Actor
The easiest category to call turned up no surprises today.
1. J.K. Simmons, Whiplash
2. Edward Norton, Birdman
3. Ethan Hawke, Boyhood
4. Mark Ruffalo, Foxcatcher
5. Robert Duvall, The Judge
5/5

Best Original Screenplay
Wow, this is Nightcrawler's only nomination!
1. Boyhood
2. Birdman
3. The Grand Budapest Hotel
4. Nightcrawler
6. Foxcatcher
4/5

Best Adapted Screenplay
1. The Imitation Game
3. The Theory of Everything
4. American Sniper
5. Whiplash
7. Inherent Vice
4/5

Best Cinematography
1. Birdman
2. The Grand Budapest Hotel
3. Mr. Turner
5. Unbroken
9. Ida
4/5

Best Film Editing
1. Boyhood
2. The Imitation Game
4. Whiplash
5. The Grand Budapest Hotel
8. American Sniper
4/5

Best Production Design
1. The Grand Budapest Hotel
2. Into the Woods
3. Interstellar
4. The Imitation Game
6. Mr. Turner
4/5

Best Costume Design
1. Into the Woods
2. The Grand Budapest Hotel
4. Mr. Turner
5. Maleficent
-. Inherent Vice
4/5

Best Makeup and Hairstyling
1. Guardians of the Galaxy
2. Foxcatcher
4. The Grand Budapest Hotel
2/3

Best Original Score
1. The Theory of Everything
2. The Grand Budapest Hotel
3. The Imitation Game
4. Interstellar
-. Mr. Turner

Best Original Song
1. "Glory", Selma
2. "Everything is Awesome", The LEGO Movie
3. "Lost Stars", Begin Again
8. "I'm Not Gonna Miss You", Glen Campbell: I'll Be Me
-. "Grateful", Beyond the Lights
3/5

Best Sound Mixing
1. American Sniper
2. Birdman
4. Whiplash
6. Unbroken
7. Interstellar
3/5

Best Sound Editing
1. Interstellar
3. American Sniper
5. Unbroken
6. Birdman
7. The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies
3/5

Best Visual Effects
1. Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
2. Interstellar
3. Guardians of the Galaxy
5. X-Men: Days of Future Past
9. Captain America: The Winter Soldier
4/5

Best Animated Feature Film
The biggest surprise here is the lack of The LEGO Movie.
2. How to Train Your Dragon 2
3. The Boxtrolls
4. Big Hero 6
6. The Tale of Princess Kaguya
7. Song of the Sea
3/5

Best Documentary Feature
1. CITIZENFOUR
3. Last Days in Vietnam
4. Virunga
7. Finding Vivian Maier
8. The Salt of the Earth
3/5

Best Foreign Language Film
1. Leviathan (Russia)
2. Ida (Poland)
3. Timbuktu (Mauritania)
4. Wild Tales (Argentina)
5. Tangerines (Estonia)
5/5

Oscar Nomination Predictions

Best Picture
1. Boyhood
2. Birdman
3. The Imitation Game
4. The Grand Budapest Hotel
5. The Theory of Everything
6. American Sniper
7. Nightcrawler
8. Selma
9. Whiplash
10. Foxcatcher
11. Gone Girl
12. Wild
13. Unbroken

Best Director
1. Richard Linklater, Boyhood
2. Alejandro González Iñárritu, Birdman
3. Mortem Tyldum, The Imitation Game
4. Wes Anderson, The Grand Budapest Hotel
5. Clint Eastwood, American Sniper
6. Damien Chazelle, Whiplash
7. James Marsh, The Theory of Everything
8. Dan Gilroy, Nightcrawler
9. Ava DuVernay, Selma
10. Bennett Miller, Foxcatcher

Best Actress
I'm springing for Marion Cotillard here above Jennifer Aniston and even Amy Adams, which is probably a foolish move. A rather thin category this year.
1. Julianne Moore, Still Alice
2. Reese Witherspoon, Wild
3. Roasmund Pike, Gone Girl
4. Felicity Jones, The Theory of Everything
5. Marion Cotillard, Two Days, One Night
6. Jennifer Aniston, Cake
7. Amy Adams, Big Eyes
8. Hilary Swank, The Homesman

Best Actor
Possibly the tightest race in the whole game, expect a snub or two to occur on Thursday morning.
1. Michael Keaton, Birdman
2. Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything
3. Benedict Cumberpatch, The Imitation Game
4. Jake Gyllenhaal, Nightcrawler
5. David Oyelowo, Selma
6. Bradley Cooper, American Sniper
7. Steve Carell, Foxcatcher
8. Timothy Spall, Mr. Turner
9. Ralph Fiennes, The Grand Budapest Hotel
10. Ben Affleck, Gone Girl

Best Supporting Actress
1. Particia Arquette, Boyhood
2. Meryl Streep, Into the Woods
3. Emma Stone, Birdman
4. Keira Knightley, The Imitation Game
5. Rene Russo, Nightcrawler
6. Naomi Watts, St. Vincent
7. Jessica Chastain, A Most Violent Year
8. Laura Dern, Wild
9. Tilda Swinton, Snowpiercer
10. Kristen Stewart, Still Alice

Best Supporting Actor
Another rather thin category this year, isn't it? J.K. Simmons is well on his way to his first nomination, and first win, for Whiplash.
1. J.K. Simmons, Whiplash
2. Edward Norton, Birdman
3. Ethan Hawke, Boyhood
4. Mark Ruffalo, Foxcatcher
5. Robert Duvall, The Judge
6. Christoph Waltz, Big Eyes
7. Steve Carell, Foxcatcher
8. Miyavi, Unbroken
9. Tom Wilkinson, Selma
10. Chris Pine, Into the Woods

Best Original Screenplay
1. Boyhood
2. Birdman
3. The Grand Budapest Hotel
4. Nightcrawler
5. Selma
6. Foxcatcher
7. Mr. Turner
8. A Most Violent Year
9. The LEGO Movie
10. Interstellar

Best Adapted Screenplay
There's been some issues with Whiplash's placement as either Adapted or Original, which is why I've placed it so low. I wouldn't be shocked if Guardians of the Galaxy makes a surprise visit here.
1. The Imitation Game
2. Gone Girl
3. The Theory of Everything
4. American Sniper
5. Whiplash
6. Wild
7. Inherent Vice
8. Unbroken
9. Still Alice
10. Guardians of the Galaxy

Best Cinematography
1. Birdman
2. The Grand Budapest Hotel
3. Mr. Turner
4. The Imitation Game
5. Unbroken
6. Interstellar
7. Selma
8. Nightcrawler
9. Ida
10. The Theory of Everything

Best Film Editing
1. Boyhood
2. The Imitation Game
3. Birdman
4. Whiplash
5. The Grand Budapest Hotel
6. Nightcrawler
7. Gone Girl
8. American Sniper
9. The Theory of Everything
10. Selma

Best Production Design
1. The Grand Budapest Hotel
2. Into the Woods
3. Interstellar
4. The Imitation Game
5. Birdman
6. Mr. Turner
7. Big Eyes
8. The Theory of Everything
9. Inherent Vice
10. The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies

Best Costume Design
1. Into the Woods
2. The Grand Budapest Hotel
3. The Imitation Game
4. Mr. Turner
5. Maleficent
6. The Theory of Everything
7. Big Eyes
8. Belle
9. The Hunger Games: Mockingjay - Part 1
10. The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies

Best Makeup and Hairstyling
I'm really not sure of the order of the top 4, although I expect that Guardians is the only lock.
1. Guardians of the Galaxy
2. Foxcatcher
3. The Theory of Everything
4. The Grand Budapest Hotel
5. Maleficent
6. Noah
7. The Amazing Spider-Man 2

Best Original Score
1. The Theory of Everything
2. The Grand Budapest Hotel
3. The Imitation Game
4. Interstellar
5. Gone Girl
6. Unbroken
7. Under the Skin
8. The Judge

Best Original Song
1. "Glory", Selma
2. "Everything is Awesome", The LEGO Movie
3. "Lost Stars", Begin Again
4. "Yellow Flicker Beat", The Hunger Games: Mockingjay - Part 1
5. "Big Eyes", Big Eyes
6. "Split the Difference", Boyhood
7. "Opportunity", Annie
8. "I'm Not Gonna Miss You", Glen Campbell: I'll Be Me
9. "Mercy Is", Noah
10. "Miracles", Unbroken

Best Sound Mixing
1. American Sniper
2. Birdman
3. Into the Woods
4. Whiplash
5. Guardians of the Galaxy
6. Unbroken
7. Interstellar
8. Fury
9. The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies
10. Transformers: Age of Extinction

Best Sound Editing
1. Interstellar
2. Whiplash
3. American Sniper
4. Guardians of the Galaxy
5. Unbroken
6. Birdman
7. The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies
8. Fury
9. Godzilla
10. Transformers: Age of Extinction

Best Visual Effects
1. Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
2. Interstellar
3. Guardians of the Galaxy
4. The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies
5. X-Men: Days of Future Past
6. Godzilla
7. Maleficent
8. Transformers: Age of Extinction
9. Captain America: The Winter Soldier
10. Night at the Museum: Secret of the Tomb

Best Animated Feature Film
1. The LEGO Movie
2. How to Train Your Dragon 2
3. The Boxtrolls
4. Big Hero 6
5. The Book of Life
6. The Tale of Princess Kaguya
7. Song of the Sea
8. Rio 2
9. Mr. Peabody and Sherman
10. The Penguins of Madagascar

Best Documentary Feature
1. CITIZENFOUR
2. Life Itself
3. Last Days in Vietnam
4. Virunga
5. Jodorowsky's Dune
6. The Overnighters
7. Finding Vivian Maier
8. The Case Against 8
9. The Salt of the Earth
10. Tales of the Grim Sleeper

Best Foreign Language Film
1. Leviathan (Russia)
2. Ida (Poland)
3. Timbuktu (Mauritania)
4. Wild Tales (Argentina)
5. Tangerines (Estonia)
6. Force Majeure (Sweden)
7. Accused (The Netherlands)
8. The Liberator (Venezuela)
9. Corn Island (Georgia)

Oscar Predictions 2014

Best Picture
It's down to two real possibilities: 12 Years a Slave and Gravity, with American Hustle now trailing behind. So which one is the winner? The technical sweeper that is Gravity, or the gravity of 12 Years a Slave? I'm going for 12 Years a Slave.

Will Win: 12 Years a Slave
Could Win: Gravity

Best Director
If the Academy decides to throw us a curveball, it'll be McQueen here, upsetting the far-in-the-front-runner, Cuarón. The logic here is that the Academy doesn't really like to split Picture and Director, and those that will be voting for 12 Years a Slave will tick off McQueen, too. Nevertheless, I'm doing what you shouldn't do, and predicting a split: the more likely scenario being that Gravity takes Picture along with Director. Interestingly, if what I'm predicting is the case, it will recall the 1973 Oscars where Cabaret swept the technical awards and won Director, but The Godfather winning Picture, Actor and Adapted Screenplay: similar to the Picture-Supporting Actress-Adapted Screenplay I'm calling for 12 Years a Slave.

Will Win: Alfonso Cuarón, Gravity
Could Win: Steve McQueen, 12 Years a Slave

Actress
Blanchett has this locked up. I'm not even sure of an alternative winner here other than Adams.

Will Win: Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
Could Win: Amy Adams, American Hustle

Actor
This strikes me as one of the closest races of the night, with three actors battling it out for the Oscar. Nevertheless, I expect Matthew McConnaughey to continue his sweeping of the category, with Ejiofor and DiCaprio not far behind.

Will Win: Matthew McConnaughey, Dallas Buyers Club
Could Win: Leonardo DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street OR Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave

Supporting Actress
I suspect that Nyong'o, SAG winner, will take this prize. Will the Academy really want to give Lawrence another Oscar already? I doubt it, but then again Waltz won last year.

Will Win: Lupita Nyong'o, 12 Years a Slave
Could Win: Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle

Supporting Actor
Leto has this category all sewn up.

Will Win: Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club
Could Win: Michael Fassbender, 12 Years a Slave

Adapted Screenplay
Will BAFTA-winning Philomena surprise here? It has its rather vocal supporters, but I'm going with the behemoth in the category.

Will Win: 12 Years a Slave
Could Win: Philomena

Original Screenplay
Spike Jonze's Her won the Globe, and it strikes me as the most 'writerly' of the bunch… next to American Hustle, that is. Will they really send it away without a single award? Here seems to be the most likely place for it to pop up.

Will Win: Her
Could Win: American Hustle

Editing
Many are calling for a Captain Phillips win here, but I think that Gravity will sweep the technical awards with voters simply going 'check check check' down the ballot.

Will Win: Gravity
Could Win: Captain Phillips

Cinematography
Gravity continues its sweep here.

Will Win: Gravity
Could Win: Nebraska

Production Design
The winner in this category is often marked by the equation 'Best = Most', and The Great Gatsby is surely the 'most' of the bunch.

Will Win: The Great Gatsby
Could Win: 12 Years a Slave

Costume Design
Will The Great Gatsby match Moulin Rouge's feat of a Luhrmann film winning both Production and Costume design? It's sure looking likely.

Will Win: The Great Gatsby
Could Win: 12 Years a Slave

Makeup and Hairstyling
I suspect most voters will check off the lone Best Picture nominee of the bunch, and avoid the nonetheless impressive work of Bad Grandpa.

Will Win: Dallas Buyers Club
Could Win: The Lone Ranger

Original Score
I think this is an easy win for Steven Price's score for Gravity.

Will Win: Gravity
Could Win: Her

Original Song
A month ago, I would be entirely comfortable with "Let it Go". But given that "Happy" has been radio-dominating as of late, I think there's a good chance it may slide in here.

Will Win: "Let it Go" from Frozen
Could Win: "Happy" from Despicable Me 2

Sound Mixing
Easy.

Will Win: Gravity
Could Win: Captain Phillips

Sound Editing
Peasy.

Will Win: Gravity
Could Win: Captain Phillips

Visual Effects
Done like dinner.

Will Win: Gravity
Could Win: The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug

Foreign Language
The Felliniesque Great Beauty will surely have its champions, and many are predicting that it will win the category like it did at the Globes. But I'm not so sure. After seeing the film myself, it's brilliant but potentially difficult viewing for some. The more traditional storytelling of The Hunt lends itself to more mainstream audiences, and it's excellent to boot.

Will Win: The Hunt
Could Win: The Great Beauty

Animated Feature

Will Win: Frozen
Could Win: The Wind Rises

Animated Short

Will Win: Get a Horse!
Could Win: Feral

Documentary Feature

Will Win: 20 Feet from Stardom
Could Win: The Square

Documentary Short

Will Win: The Lady in Number 6: Music Saved My Life
Could Win: Karama Has No Walls

Live Action Short

Will Win: Helium
Could Win: ???


TALLY
Gravity: 7
12 Years a Slave: 3
Dallas Buyers Club: 3
The Great Gatsby: 2
Frozen: 2

2013 Oscar Nominations Reaction

Best Picture
Mostly as expected. Inside Llewyn Davis didn't pan out.

1. 12 Years a Slave
2. Gravity
3. American Hustle
4. Captain Phillips
5. The Wolf of Wall Street
6. Nebraska
7. Her
9. Dallas Buyers Club
11. Philomena

8/9

Directing
Paul Greengrass is the omission from the DGA five, replaced by Academy favourite Alexander Payne.

1. Steve McQueen, 12 Years a Slave
2. Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity
3. David O. Russell, American Hustle
5. Martin Scorsese, The Wolf of Wall Street
6. Alexander Payne, Nebraska

4/5

Actress in a Leading Role
I didn't foresee the Academy snubbing Emma Thompson.

1. Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
2. Sandra Bullock, Gravity
4. Judi Dench, Philomena
5. Meryl Streep, August: Osage County
6. Amy Adams, American Hustle

4/5

Actor in a Leading Role
Redford was indeed left out, but so was Tom Hanks in a surprising move that I somehow half-expected.

1. Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club

2. Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave

3. Bruce Dern, Nebraska

6. Leonardo DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street

8. Christian Bale, American Hustle

3/5

Actress in a Supporting Role
Sorry, Oprah! My beloved Sally Hawkins finally made it in.

1. Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle
2. Lupita Nyong’o, 12 Years a Slave
4. Julia Roberts, August: Osage County
5. June Squibb, Nebraska
6. Sally Hawkins, Blue Jasmine

4/5

Actor in a Supporting Role
Brühl missed out, and Cooper makes American Hustle the second Russell film in a row (after Silver Linings Playbook) to get a nomination in all four acting categories. That's some achievement.

1. Michael Fassbender, 12 Years a Slave
2. Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club
3. Barkhad Abdi, Captain Phillips
5. Bradley Cooper, American Hustle
7. Jonah Hill, The Wolf of Wall Street

4/5

Original Screenplay

1. American Hustle
2. Nebraska
3. Blue Jasmine
4. Her
7. Dallas Buyers Club

4/5

Adapted Screenplay

1. 12 Years a Slave
2. Captain Phillips
3. Philomena
4. Before Midnight
5. The Wolf of Wall Street

5/5

Cinematography
In a surprising move, 12 Years a Slave was left out, with a somewhat surprising nomination from The Grandmaster.

1. Gravity
3. Nebraska
4. Prisoners
5. Inside Llewyn Davis
9. The Grandmaster

4/5

Editing
And the surprise was Thelma Schoonmaker missing out and Dallas Buyers Club making it in.

1. Gravity
2. 12 Years a Slave
3. Captain Phillips
4. American Hustle
10. Dallas Buyers Club

4/5

Production Design

1. 12 Years a Slave
2. The Great Gatsby
4. Gravity
5. American Hustle
8. Her

4/5

Costume Design
The Grandmaster makes another surprising inclusion here.

1. The Great Gatsby
2. American Hustle
3. 12 Years a Slave
4. The Invisible Woman
- The Grandmaster

4/5

Makeup and Hairstyling
The love for American Hustle didn't spread here, with The Lone Ranger making it in.

2. Bad Grandpa
3. Dallas Buyers Club
5. The Lone Ranger

2/3

Original Score
12 Years a Slave missed another one here.

1. Gravity
3. The Book Thief
4. Saving Mr. Banks
7. Her
8. Philomena

3/5

Original Song
"Young and Beautiful" was snubbed in favour of the obscure "Alone Yet Not Alone". I should check it out!

1. "Let it Go" from Frozen
3. "Ordinary Love" from Mandela: The Long Walk to Freedom
4. "Happy" from Despicable Me 2
5. "The Moon Song" from Her
- "Alone Yet Not Alone" from Alone Yet Not Alone

4/5

Sound Mixing
So Lone Survivor did end up in the mix for both categories. I knew I should have predicted it.

1. Gravity
2. Captain Phillips
5. Inside Llewyn Davis
9. Lone Survivor
- The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug

3/5

Sound Editing
As usual, not my best category.

1. Gravity
2. Captain Phillip
4. All is Lost
7. Lone Survivor
8. The Hunger Games: Catching Fire

3/5


Visual Effects
Now here's a snub: Pacific Rim is missing here.

1. Gravity
2. The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
4. Iron Man 3
5. Star Trek Into Darkness
10. The Lone Ranger

4/5

Foreign Language

1. The Hunt
2. The Broken Circle Breakdown
3. The Great Beauty
4. Omar
- The Missing Picture

4/5

Animated Feature Film
Pixar actually missed out this year, with Monsters University failing to make the grade.

1. Frozen
2. The Wind Rises
4. Despicable Me 2
5. The Croods
6. Ernest and Celestine

4/5


Documentary Feature
In a rather shocking move, both Blackfish and Stories We Tell are left out.

3. The Act of Killing
4. 20 Feet from Stardom
6. The Square
- Cutie and the Boxer
- Dirty Wars

3/5


So this was one of my better years, with a grand total of:
82/107

Oscar Nomination Predictions

Best Picture
I think passion votes will get Her and Inside Llewyn Davis into the mix, while the lack of passion makes Saving Mr. Banks in a riskier position. I'm not sure how to read Philomena and Blue Jasmine, both of which I suspect also harbour a significant block of passion votes. The top 4 are very safe bets.

1. 12 Years a Slave
2. Gravity
3. American Hustle
4. Captain Phillips
5. The Wolf of Wall Street
6. Nebraska
7. Her
8. Inside Llewyn Davis
9. Dallas Buyers Club
10. Saving Mr. Banks
11. Philomena
12. Blue Jasmine

Directing
I'm going with the DGA five, but am expecting there to be an omission -- my hunch is Scorsese.

1. Steve McQueen, 12 Years a Slave
2. Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity
3. David O. Russell, American Hustle
4. Paul Greengrass, Captain Phillips
5. Martin Scorsese, The Wolf of Wall Street
6. Alexander Payne, Nebraska
7. The Coen Brothers, Inside Llewyn Davis
8. Spike Jonze, Her
9. Woody Allen, Blue Jasmine
10. Jean-Marc Vallée, Dallas Buyers Club
11. John Lee Hancock, Saving Mr. Banks
12. Stephen Frears, Philomena

Actress in a Leading Role
These five actresses, all of whom have been SAG nominated, have been pretty stable the entire season, and I don't expect any major surprises here, unless it is a switch between Streep and Adams.

1. Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
2. Sandra Bullock, Gravity
3. Emma Thompson, Saving Mr. Banks
4. Judi Dench, Philomena
5. Meryl Streep, August: Osage County
6. Amy Adams, American Hustle
7. Kate Winslet, Labour Day
8. Brie Larson, Short Term 12
9. Julie Delpy, Before Midnight

Actor in a Leading Role
The top three are the safest bets. Redford seems to be in a much riskier position, missing out on key nominations (including the SAG), but I somehow feel that the performance speaks for itself and will sneak in. It's probably a foolish bet, as DiCaprio has apparently been campaigning hard and even won the Globe a few nights ago. Yet somehow I feel he'll be the big snub of the morning.

1. Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club

2. Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave

3. Bruce Dern, Nebraska

4. Robert Redford, All is Lost

5. Tom Hanks, Captain Phillips
6. Leonardo DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street

7. Forest Whitaker, The Butler

8. Christian Bale, American Hustle

9. Joaquin Phoenix, Her

10. Idris Elba, Mandela: The Long Walk to Freedom

11. Oscar Isaac, Inside Llewyn Davis

12. Michael B. Jordan, Fruitvale Station

Actress in a Supporting Role
The top six are battling it out for the nomination, with Lawrence and Nyong'o being the only real safe bets. I think the Academy will spring for Nebraska and bring Squibb along with it, leaving poor Hawkins out in the cold for what was truly a great performance and matching the SAG five. Let's hope they both can make it in and superstars Roberts and Winfrey are the precarious ones.

1. Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle
2. Lupita Nyong’o, 12 Years a Slave
3. Oprah Winfrey, The Butler
4. Julia Roberts, August: Osage County
5. June Squibb, Nebraska
6. Sally Hawkins, Blue Jasmine
7. Octavia Spencer, Fruitvale Station
8. Scarlett Johannson, Her
9. Margo Martindale, August: Osage County
10. Sarah Paulson, 12 Years a Slave

Actor in a Supporting Role
The top four are safe bets, and I'm already betting that Leto will be the big winner. The next three spots, however, could be reversed on any other day: I'm just not sure how they will fall into place. Gandolfini has the SAG nomination, Cooper has Hustle's buzz, and Hill... well, Hill has something. Interestingly, could McConnaughey or Hanks become double nominees this year? It's a distinct possibility.

1. Michael Fassbender, 12 Years a Slave
2. Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club
3. Barkhad Abdi, Captain Phillips
4. Daniel Brühl, Rush
5. Bradley Cooper, American Hustle
6. James Gandolfini, Enough Said
7. Jonah Hill, The Wolf of Wall Street
8. Matthew McConnaughey, Mud
9. Tom Hanks, Saving Mr. Banks
10. James Franco, Spring Breakers

Original Screenplay

1. American Hustle
2. Nebraska
3. Blue Jasmine
4. Her
5. Inside Llewyn Davis
6. Gravity
7. Dallas Buyers Club
8. Mud
9. Saving Mr. Banks
10. The Butler
11. Fruitvale Station
12. Prisoners

Adapted Screenplay


1. 12 Years a Slave
2. Captain Phillips
3. Philomena
4. Before Midnight
5. The Wolf of Wall Street
6. August: Osage County
7. Short Term 12
8. Blue is the Warmest Colour
9.
10.

Cinematography


1. Gravity
2. 12 Years a Slave
3. Nebraska
4. Prisoners
5. Inside Llewyn Davis
6. Captain Phillips
7. Her
8. Rush
9. The Grandmaster
10. Dallas Buyers Club

Editing
I'm rather comfortable with these five -- which means that something has to surprise, no?

1. Gravity
2. 12 Years a Slave
3. Captain Phillips
4. American Hustle
5. The Wolf of Wall Street
6. Rush
7. Nebraska
8. Her
9. Inside Llewyn Davis
10. Dallas Buyers Club

Production Design


1. 12 Years a Slave
2. The Great Gatsby
3. The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
4. Gravity
5. American Hustle
6. Inside Lewyn Davis
7. Saving Mr. Banks
8. Her
9. Oz the Great and Powerful
10.

Costume Design


1. The Great Gatsby
2. American Hustle
3. 12 Years a Slave
4. The Invisible Woman
5. Oz the Great and Powerful
6. Saving Mr. Banks
7. The Hunger Games: Catching Fire
8. The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
9. Inside Llewyn Davis
10. Dallas Buyers Club


Makeup and Hairstyling
I think beyond the top two, any could make it in to the final three. I'm going with Dallas Buyers Club because... well, why not?

1. American Hustle
2. Bad Grandpa
3. Dallas Buyers Club
4. The Great Gatsby
5. The Lone Ranger
6. The Hunger Games: Catching Fire
7. Hansel & Gretel: Witch Hunters

Original Score


1. Gravity
2. 12 Years a Slave
3. The Book Thief
4. Saving Mr. Banks
5. All is Lost
6. Rush
7. Her
8. Philomena
9. Captain Phillips
10. Frozen

Original Song
The top three here are the most likely to be nominated, particularly "Let It Go", which Disney has been campaigning hard on.

1. "Let it Go" from Frozen
2. "Young and Beautiful" from The Great Gatsby
3. "Ordinary Love" from Mandela: The Long Walk to Freedom
4. "Happy" from Despicable Me 2
5. "The Moon Song" from Her
6. "Atlas" from The Hunger Games: Catching Fire
7. "I See Fire" from The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
8. "Monsters University" from Monsters University
9. "My Lord Sunshine" from 12 Years a Slave
10. "In the Middle of the Night" from The Butler

Sound Mixing
Will Lone Survivor fall into the five? Will Rush be left in the cold? What about All is Lost -- will it make it in both sound categories, or only for Mixing? These two are always the most difficult to predict, and this year is no different.

1. Gravity
2. Captain Phillips
3. Rush
4. All is Lost
5. Inside Llewyn Davis
6. 12 Years a Slave
7. Frozen
8. Pacific Rim
9. Lone Survivor
10. Star Trek Into Darkness

Sound Editing


1. Gravity
2. Captain Phillips
3. Rush
4. All is Lost
5. Pacific Rim
6. 12 Years a Slave
7. Lone Survivor
8. The Hunger Games: Catching Fire
9. The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
10. Star Trek Into Darkness

Visual Effects
I'm confident with my top 3, but beyond that I'm not sure.

1. Gravity
2. The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
3. Pacific Rim
4. Iron Man 3
5. Star Trek Into Darkness
6. World War Z
7. Elysium
8. Thor: The Dark World
9. Oblivion
10. The Lone Ranger

Foreign Language

1. The Hunt
2. The Broken Circle Breakdown
3. The Great Beauty
4. Omar
5. Two Lives
6. The Grandmaster
7. The Notebook
8. An Episode in the Life of an Iron Picker

Animated Feature Film

1. Frozen
2. The Wind Rises
3. Monsters University
4. Despicable Me 2
5. The Croods
6. Ernest and Celestine
7. Epic

Documentary Feature
I suspect that Tim's Vermeer will make way for The Square, but there's this little part of me that is just comfortable with the five I have here.

1. Stories We Tell
2. Blackfish
3. The Act of Killing
4. 20 Feet from Stardom
5. Tim's Vermeer
6. The Square
7. The Armstrong Lie

2013 Flicks

So it's now early December, and critics' lists are starting to come out. Problem is that many of the films that they are listing haven't yet reached Kitchener-Waterloo, or I missed them. So this is a handy list for me to keep track of what I've seen and what I need to catch up with.

Thus far, my favourite flicks of the year are Blue Jasmine, Mud and Wadjda; and if you consider Caesar Must Die a 2013 film, then that, too. You may notice that almost all of the films listed as seen have ratings of B- or more... how could that be? I think it's that I have a pretty good sense of what I will like, and avoid what I think I won't. When I had more money or when I worked at the theatre I would give less thought to what I would see -- hence why my flickchart does include some sparkling gems like Battle: Los Angeles. But it's also that I tend to gravitate towards films that are critically acclaimed. Blockbusters don't really appeal to me, especially the glut of superhero movies -- but that doesn't mean that I avoid them entirely. I enjoyed Pacific Rim, checked out Star Trek Into Darkness, and will see The Hunger Games: Catching Fire when the crowds die down a bit.


What I've Seen
12 Years a Slave (A)
All is Lost (A-)
American Hustle (A)
The Angels' Share (B+)
A Touch of Sin (A)
Blackbird (A)
Blue Jasmine (A+)
Blue is the Warmest Colour (B)
Caesar Must Die (A+)
Captain Phillips (B+)
The Conjuring (B+)
Dallas Buyers Club (A)
The East (C)
Enough Said (B+)
Elysium (B)
Frances Ha (B-)
Frozen (A-)
Fruitvale Station (B+)
Gravity (A)
The Great Gatsby (A-)
Her (A)
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug (B)
The Hunger Games: Catching Fire (B)
The Hunt (A)
Inside Llewyn Davis (A)
The Iceman (C)
Kon Tiki (C+)
Lee Daniels' The Butler (B)
The Manor (B-)
Much Ado About Nothing (B)

Mud (A+)
Nebraska (A)

Olympus Has Fallen (B-)

Only God Forgives (B)

Pacific Rim (B)

Philomena (A-)

Prisoners (B+)

Renoir (B+)
Room 237 (B)

Rush (A)

The Sapphires (A-)

The Spectacular Now (B)

Star Trek Into Darkness (B-)

This is the End (A-)

Trance (B)

Wadjda (A+)

The Way, Way Back (B-)
The Wolf of Wall Street (A-)

World War Z (B)

What I Need to See
20 Feet from Stardom^
The Act of Killing^
August: Osage County*
Before Midnight^
Behind the Candelabra
Blackfish^
The Bling Ring^
Evil Dead^
Gloria*
Labor Day*
Monster's University^
Out of the Furnace
The Past*
The Place Beyond the Pines^
Saving Mr. Banks*
Short Term 12
Side Effects^
Stories We Tell^
The Wind Rises*
The World's End^

*Hasn't come yet
^Had an opportunity to, but missed it


What I Have No Real Interest in Seeing
42 (Sports movies don't do much for me.)
Don Jon (Looks like an ego-stroking project.)
The Heat (No.)
Fast & Furious 6 (Do I have to?)
Iron Man 3 (Yawn.)
Man of Steel (Ew, Zack Snyder!)
Oblivion (Looks dull.)
Oz The Great and Powerful (Looks terrible!)
Stoker (I've heard it's boring.)
Thor: The Dark World (Didn't see the first one.)
Warm Bodies (I don't know about this one, and I can't place my finger on it.)
We're the Millers (Looks stupid.)
The Wolverine (Another superhero film??)

"Recommend me some movies!" #3: Terrific Trios

Trios of many different genres, styles, movements and themes. I've purposely tried to expand it a bit beyond what I think are the 'best' and more towards personal favourites. They are almost all well-known and should be easy to find. Asterisks will show films that may be more difficult to locate.


Three Great Québecois Films
C.R.A.Z.Y. (Jean-Marc Vallée, 2005) Recommended by me before, a queer coming of age film.
Maelström* (Denis Villeneuve, 2000) A dying fish narrates a strange, emotional tale.
The Decline of the American Empire (Denys Arcand, 1986) Intellectuals talk lots of sex.

Three Great Blaxploitation Films
Bone* (Larry Cohen) Also known as Beverly Hills Nightmare or Housewife, it's deliriously subversive fun.
Cleopatra Jones and the Casino of Gold (Charles Bail, 1975) Campy, ass-kicking Cleo in Macau and Hong Kong.
Sweet Sweetback's Baadasssss Song (Melvin van Peebles, 1971) Revolutionary, landmark blaxploitation.

Three Great Heist Films
The Sting (George Roy Hill, 1973) This Best Picture winner is frothy and fun.
Sexy Beast (Jonathan Glazer, 2001) Gritty British thriller with dynamite performance from Ben Kingsley, who is terrifying as the psychotic Don Logan.
Ocean's Eleven (Steven Soderbergh, 2001) Miles ahead of the original, Soderbergh's film is a stylish delight.

Three Great Cary Grant Screwballs
Arsenic and Old Lace (Frank Capra, 1944) Cary Grant plays the lone sane member of a hilariously murderous family.
His Girl Friday (Howard Hawks, 1940) One of the great scripts of Classic Hollywood, it's the sharpest screwball around.
Bringing Up Baby (Howard Hawks, 1938) Grant shines with Katharine Hepburn, who is delightfully ditzy.

Three Great Anthology Films
Paris, Je T'aime (2006) 20 short films that range from droll character studies to vampire mysteries and beautiful love stories.
Germany in Autumn* (1978) Biting examination of post-War West Germany, featuring shorts from Fassbinder, Kluge and Schlöndorff.
Sin City (Frank Miller, Robert Rodriguez, Quentin Tarantino, 2005) One of the best neo-Noirs.

Three Great Americana Films
The Last Picture Show (Peter Bogdanovich, 1971) Stoic view of a small Western town as it transitions to a new era, featuring career-best performances.
Meet Me in St. Louis (Vincent Minnelli, 1944) One of the best American musicals, it's dripping with patriotism and sentimentality... but a closer look reveals much more.
Melvin and Howard* (Jonathan Demme, 1980) An unassuming man's life is changed when he is mysteriously named in the will of none other than Howard Hughes.

Three Great Biopics
Capote (Bennett Miller, 2005) The best biopic ever made, it's subtle, moving and an intense examination into the working process of one of the most controversial and game-changing novels written.
Milk (Gus Van Sant, 2008) Sean Penn walks away with his second Oscar, and Van Sant re-energizes a tired genre with some cinematic flair.
Yankee Doodle Dandy (Michael Curtiz, 1942) Most contemporary audiences know James Cagney for his gangster films -- but he was also a top song and dance man. Here he plays George M. Cohan, "The Man Who Owns Broadway".

Three Great New Hollywood Films Based on a True Story
All the Presidents Men (Alan Pakula, 1976) The breaking of and investigation behind the Watergate Scandal.
Dog Day Afternoon (Sidney Lumet, 1975) A bank robbery goes wrong, and The People eat it up.
Badlands (Terence Malick, 1973) A young couple is on the run and madly in love in this tribute to Americana.

Three Great Shakespeare Films
Titus (Julie Taymor, 1999) Shakespeare's infamous Titus Andronicus goes postmodern.
Macbeth* (Orson Welles, 1948) Welles described his project as "a perfect cross between Wuthering Heights and Bride of Frankenstein", and it's an apt suggestion.
Romeo + Juliet (Baz Lurhmann, 1996) Whirling, kaleidoscopic and pure pop, it's a brave blend that somehow works, and works gloriously.

Three Great Mindbenders
The Trial* (Orson Welles, 1962) Another gem from Orson Welles, featuring spectacular set design.
Eraserhead (David Lynch, 1977) It's hilarious, bizarre and gruesome, and totally worth watching.
Naked Lunch (David Cronenberg, 1991) I still don't know quite what I watched here, but it was sure exhilarating.

Three Great Marriages Falling Apart
Greed (Erich von Stroheim, 1924) This silent epic was shorn by the studio, but in its remains it's still a crowning achievement.
Who's Afraid of Virginia Woolf? (Mike Nichols, 1966) Elizabeth Taylor and Richard Burton are at each other's throats with wickedly witty vitriol.
Contempt (Jean-Luc Godard, 1963) Why would your wife suddenly despise everything about you, with only a flimsy excuse? Godard and Bridgette Bardot are a match made in cinematic heaven.

Three Great Documentaries
Dear Zachary: A Letter to a Son About His Father* (Kurt Kuenne, 2008) Guaranteed to get you sobbing, this is perhaps one of the most emotionally powerful films I've come across.
Grizzly Man (Werner Herzog, 2005) The life and death of bear fanatic Timothy Treadwell.
Night and Fog (Alain Resnais, 1955) One of the first documentaries about the Holocaust, and still among the most poignant and devastating.

Three Great Queer Films
Poison* (Todd Haynes, 1991) Certainly not for all tastes, but those willing to go along with its genre games and whacked-out narratives will have a blast.
The Wedding Banquet (Ang Lee, 1993) Lee went queer long before Brokeback Mountain with this touching and funny adventure of a Taiwanese man pretending to get straight married to hide his gay relationship.
My Beautiful Laundrette (Stephen Frears, 1985) A young Daniel Day Lewis owns the screen.

Three Great French New Wave Films
The Butcher* (Claude Chabrol, 1970) The nouvelle vague goes horror with this chilling character study.
The Umbrellas of Cherbourg (Jacques Demy, 1963) And here, it goes American film musical with a jazz operetta that's sure to get you both dancing and crying.
Pierrot le fou (Jean-Luc Godard, 1965) Perhaps Godard's most accessible film, it has all of his experimental and political flourishes but with plenty of laughs, colour and playfulness.

Three Great Gangster Films
White Heat (Raoul Walsh, 1949) James Cagney is electric as a mama's boy turned psychopath.
The Asphalt Jungle (John Huston, 1950) A jewellery caper goes wrong in this classic noir.
Shanghai Triad* (Zhang Yimou, 1995) A provincial boy meets the criminal underworld of 1930s Shanghai in Yimou's Chinese neo-noir.