2026 Oscar Predictions

Here are my annual predictions for the Academy Awards. I predict that One Battle After Another will win 6 Oscars: Best Picture, Director, Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, and Editing. Close behind is Sinners, with Actor, Original Screenplay, Casting, and Original Score. Frankenstein will do well in the crafts, with Costume Design, Makeup and Hairstyling, and Production Design wins. But there is a story here, one of ebbs and flows. One Battle After Another has swept the season, but with a pesky vampire film close behind it, looking for fresh blood. 

Best Picture

Once upon a time, Sinners was the clear frontrunner... then One Battle After Another debuted, and it was all over for Sinners. Who could stand up to the severely overdue Paul Thomas Anderson's masterful film? Well, the last month has shown us that Sinners may indeed be the one to overthrow PTA's apparent crowning-in-waiting. The buzz has been behind Coogler's film ever since it destroyed the record for the most nominations in a year, with 16 nods. One Battle has been winning, yes, but I feel it in the air that Sinners is duking it out with PTA, and just may win after all. Of course, that's not counting in TIFF People's Choice and Golden Globe winner Hamnet, which I suspect will do very well on the ranked ballots. I'm not holding my breath, but I have an inkling that Hamnet will be the surprise winner of Best Picture. This is down to the wire, people. After the show, will I be saying "Oh, it was One Battle After Another sweeping the season, after all. How could I have doubted that?" Or will I be going: "I knew it! Sinners pulled the carpet out of PTA's feet!" Or, will I be smacking myself: "I had a feeling it was going to be Hamnet! Why didn't I spring for that?" This is an exciting race, and it's what I look for every season: doubt. Surprises. Shocking winners. I tend to try and predict these surprises, because I overthink things and let this doubt creep in. But the smart money here? One Battle After Another.

Will Win: One Battle After Another
Could Win: Sinners
Dark Horse: Hamnet 

Director

PTA is in the lead, as he has been all season, but I think it's become more precarious over time. If Best Picture goes to Sinners, but Coogler misses here, it'll be the third time a Black-directed film wins Picture, but loses out on Directing. That's not a good look, but will voters be aware of this fact? I dunno. I do still think that PTA will take the Oscar, though.

Will Win: Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another
Could Win: Ryan Coogler, Sinners
Dark Horse: Chloé Zhao, Hamnet 

Actress

Buckley is in an easy lead here. I don't even know who would be her competition.

Will Win: Jessie Buckley, Hamnet
If Hell Freezes Over: Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I'd Kick You 

Actor

Now here's a race, and it's tooth and nail. Chalamet has been the supposed safe winner for most of the season, until he lost the BAFTA (to a non-Oscar nominated Robert Aramayo) and the Actor Award to Jordan. Sinners has been making a late-season surge in hype, and I'm really thinking--as with many other Oscar watchers--that Chalamet has lost his lead. It doesn't help he's been putting his foot in his mouth lately. What a year this has been for Jordan: he started off as the frontrunner, then lost his footing, made it into the nominee list by the slimmest of margins (I do think he was fifth), but then... Sinners has become the talk of the town again with its nominations haul. Wow. But that's not to say that any of the other nominees have no shot: I think this is a category in major flux, and I would honestly not be surprised if any of them take it.

Will Win: Michael B. Jordan, Sinners
Could Win: Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme
Dark Horse: Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another

Supporting Actress

The chaos continues here with probably the most competitive category of the evening. Taylor was in the lead for most of the season, with an early Globes win, but Madigan has always been part of the conversation: it's a beloved performance from a well-liked actress, yet the sole nominee for her film. Horror films also never do that well with the Academy, so they say... but is this still true? I mean, this year alone we have Frankenstein and Sinners racking up the wins and nominations. Mosaku has won the BAFTA and a number of critic awards, and I think she--like Jordan--can take advantage of Sinners' late season surge. I so think, however, that Madigan's now-iconic performance will take the win over Taylor and Mosaku; but it's anyone's guess who will actually win from these three. Will we see a split, and allow Lilleaas to swoop in? Nah. Probably not.

Will Win: Amy Madigan, Weapons
Could Win: Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners
Very Close Behind: Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another

Supporting Actor

Now, Penn is supposedly the clear winner here after his late season domination; but it just doesn't feel right, y'know? Three-time winner, Sean Penn? Yes, his performance dominated the film, and it's pretty weird, too: you can't take your eyes off of him. His co-star Del Toro did very well with the critics' awards, but his buzz seems to have fallen in the latter half of the race. Skarsgård has routinely been touted as the frontrunner, even though he does not have the stats to back this assertion. Time and time again, he has lost: he wasn't even nominated for the Actor Award. I don't think Skarsgård has this. But then, who does? Yes, Penn is the statistical most likely, so if you're trying for your Oscar pool, go with him. But I have a sneaking suspicion that it's gonna be Lindo. I have nothing to back me up here, other than Sinners surging lately, and the fact that he's well-liked by the community and has never been nominated before.

Most Likely: Sean Penn, One Battle After Another
Suspicion!: Delroy Lindo, Sinners
Could Win: Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value

Adapted Screenplay

Easy peasy, lemon squeezy: if PTA loses Director after all, he will still be an Oscar winner for his writing. 

Will Win: One Battle After Another
Not Likely: Hamnet

Original Screenplay

And another easy one: Coogler will also be a winner, even if he doesn't "steal" the Oscar for directing away from PTA.

Will Win: Sinners
Very Dark Horse: Sentimental Value

Casting

Sinners has been widely considered the frontrunner of this all season, and I do think that it is the likely winner. But what about the awesome cast of One Battle? Or the use of non-actors in The Secret Agent and Marty Supreme? Or the jackpot that was the children in Hamnet? I do think any of these films would be a worthy winner for the first-ever Casting Oscar.

Will Win: Sinners 
Could Win: One Battle After Another
I Want to Win: The Secret Agent

Cinematography

Battle and Sinners are indeed battling it out, once again, for an award. All season long, it's been Sinners out ahead, but with a string of wins lately, One Battle After Another, with its innovative cinematography, has really given Sinners a run for its money. Which one will come out ahead? It's hard to say... and that's not counting Train Dreams, with its beautiful work. Don't be surprised if that one wins, after all.

Will Win: One Battle After Another
Could Win: Sinners
Dark Horse: Train Dreams

Editing

Observers have been saying for most of the race that this is F1's to lose, but that has really turned around in the last month, with One Battle sweeping. 

Will Win: One Battle After Another
Could Win: F1

Costume Design

Even people who dislike the film have been saying all season long that Frankenstein is the deserving winner here. 

Will Win: Frankenstein
Could Win: Sinners

Production Design

Same thing. It's hard to deny Frankenstein's craft. 

Will Win: Frankenstein
Could Win: Sinners

Makeup & Hairstyling

And, once again... Such an interesting mix of nominees, though!

Will Win: Frankenstein
Could Win: Sinners

Sound

Once F1 snagged that Best Picture nomination, it was almost a guaranteed win here... but Sinners is on its tail. 

Will Win: F1
Could Win:Sinners

Original Score

An easy win for Sinners, but Greenwood would also be a worthy (first-time!) winner. 

Will Win: Sinners
Could Win: One Battle After Another

Original Song

I've been reading that people are actually finally getting sick of that KPop Demon Hunters song, and that this may actually slip out of its hands. Probably not, though.

Will Win: "Golden", KPop Demon Hunters
Could Win: "I Lied to You", Sinners
Please, No: "Dear Me", Diane Warren: Relentless

Visual Effects

An easy win here, but like Original Song, are voters getting tired of Avatar?

Will Win: Avatar: Fire and Ash
Could Win: F1

International Feature

Now, here we have a bit of a confusing category. It would seem that Sentimental Value would be the 'obvious' choice, given its slew of nominations... but The Secret Agent is also in key categories of Picture, Actor, and Casting. It comes down to these two, but It Was Just an Accident is hot on their tracks. I don't see Sirat or The Voice of Hind Rajab making an impact, but with any of these other three, you could make a solid case. Sentimental Value was snubbed at the Actor Awards, but is clearly very well liked by the Academy; The Secret Agent has the international 'Brazilian factor' going on (see last year's winner I'm Still Here); It Was Just an Accident has the obvious political ramifications of an Iranian filmmaker going against the regime. The general consensus is Sentimental Value, but I really do think that The Secret Agent is going to put up a vicious fight.

Will Win: Sentimental Value
Could Win: The Secret Agent
Dark Horse: It Was Just an Accident   

Animated Feature

This is very clearly going KPop Demon Hunters, despite the 'anonymous ballots' suggesting some fatigue going on. There is just no clear alternative. 

Will Win: KPop Demon Hunters
Could Win: Zootopia 2

Documentary Feature

Smart money is on The Perfect Neighbor, with the alternate being Mr. Nobody Against Putin. I don't see anything else winning, but then again, what do I know? This category, along with the shorts, often pops up surprises for us.

Will Win: The Perfect Neighbor
Could Win: Mr. Nobody Against Putin

Animated Short

This appears to be a battle between Butterfly and The Girl Who Cried Pearls, with Butterfly coming out on top.

Will Win: Butterfly
Could Win: The Girl Who Cried Pearls

Documentary Short 

Subtext is everything in All the Empty Rooms, and what subtext! This film screams "Oscar winner" to me, especially given voters' tendencies to reward the politics of the short docs, rather than the quality of the film itself. (I've seen more than a few people critique All the Empty Rooms as being somewhat of a bland film, despite the emotional resonance.) But what could go against it? Maybe Armed With Only a Camera?

Will Win: All the Empty Rooms
Could Win: Armed With Only a Camera

Live Action Short

I've seen all of these, and I'm struggling with my desire of who I want to win with whom I think will win. My favourite was very clearly Two People Exchanging Saliva, and I feel that it's by far and away the most accomplished film here... but it's also patently bizarre and even confrontational with its eccentricities. Does that mean that the adorable, but lightweight, A Friend of Dorothy has a better chance, especially given that it's been campaigned fairly hard and will appeal to voters' liberal politics? I think it might. The Singers is the other short that stands a chance against these two, as it's well made, memorable, and emotionally affecting. I don't see Jane Austen's Period Drama making an impact (it's more like a good SNL sketch), and Butcher's Stain is in my, and in many other people's opinions, not up to par with the others. (I actively disliked the short.) So that means...

Will Win: A Friend of Dorothy
Could Win: Two People Exchanging Saliva  

Oscar Nominations Reaction 2026

How did I do? 87/110, or a B+. This is on par with my usual performance. 

Sixteen nominations: a new record by Sinners. And the kicker? It would have broken the record even without the new category of Casting. This is surely the story of the morning, but there's another one that I think is also quite interesting.

I have never seen an actual snub like this one. I was calling for seven nominations for Wicked: For Good, and it received... none. I think we in the awards race overuse the term "snub", but this certainly should count as one. What happened? I think the fact that the two films are basically just one very long movie split into two meant that nominators saw the film already be awarded last year. But that explanation still doesn't quite sit right with me. I think analysts will be looking at this one for a long time to come.

One Battle After Another is in second place with 13 nominations, missing one with Chase Infiniti, who was edged out by Kate Hudson--not an entirely unforeseen situation, mind you. Hamnet didn't do quite as well as I thought, with Paul Mescal missing, but Sentimental Value did very well indeed. That film missing nominations at the Actor Awards can now be seen as an anomaly, and Skarsgård may actually win the Oscar. Also doing very well are Frankenstein and Marty Supreme. It may be unusual for a film with nine nominations to miss out a Directing nod, but Del Toro was squeaked out by Trier and Safie--two other filmmakers with nine-time nominated films. I think that this year saw a relatively small number of films dominating, with massive hauls. 

Other surprises? Avatar getting into costumes; visual effects not going the way many were expecting; and makeup & hairstyling going for some more obscure work (which actually isn't all that surprising: this category very often goes its own way). I didn't see that Viva Verdi song coming--I haven't even heard of the film--but other than these relatively minor surprises, there weren't very many.

Best Picture

1. One Battle After Another
2. Sinners
3. Hamnet
4. Marty Supreme
5. Frankenstein
6. Sentimental Value
7. Bugonia
8. Train Dreams
9. The Secret Agent
11. F1

9/10

Director
Huh. I was anticipating a surprise, maybe two, but instead got all five.

1. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another
2. Ryan Coogler, Sinners
3. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet
4. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value
5. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme

5/5

Actress

1. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet
2. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I'd Kick You
3. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value
4. Emma Stone, Bugonia
6. Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue

4/5

Actor

1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme
2. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another
3. Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon
4. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners
5. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent

5/5

Supporting Actress
Even Grande was a victim of the Wicked: For Good snub going on.

1. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another
2. Amy Madigan, Weapons
3. Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners
4. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, Sentimental Value
7. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value

4/5

Supporting Actor
I'm actually surprised that Mescal didn't land here: category fraud? Too subtle?

1. Benicio Del Toro, One Battle After Another
2. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another
3. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value
4. Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein
8. Delroy Lindo, Sinners

4/5

Adapted Screenplay

1. One Battle After Another
2. Hamnet
3. Bugonia
4. Train Dreams
5. Frankenstein

5/5

Original Screenplay

1. Sinners
2. Sentimental Value
3. Marty Supreme
4. It Was Just An Accident
7. Blue Moon

4/5

Casting
And that was less surprising than I thought it would be. 

1. Sinners 
2. One Battle After Another
3. Marty Supreme
4. Hamnet
6. The Secret Agent

4/5

Cinematography

1. Sinners
2. One Battle After Another
3. Train Dreams
4. Frankenstein
6. Marty Supreme

4/5

Editing

1. One Battle After Another
2. Marty Supreme
3. Sinners
4. F1
6. Sentimental Value

4/5

Costume Design
The top four are locked in, but beyond that, this category often throws us a surprise or two. I suspect Hamnet may not be as strong as we think, and that Hedda or Spider Woman may be shockers.

1. Frankenstein
3. Sinners
4. Hamnet
6. Marty Supreme
-. Avatar: Fire and Ash

3/5 

Production Design

1. Frankenstein
2. Sinners
4. Hamnet
5. Marty Supreme
7. One Battle After Another

4/5

Makeup & Hairstyling

1. Frankenstein
2. Sinners
4. The Smashing Machine
6. The Ugly Stepsister
8. Kokuho

3/5 

Sound

1. F1
2. Sinners
3. One Battle After Another
6. Sirat
7. Frankenstein

3/5

Original Score

1. Sinners
2. One Battle After Another
3. Hamnet
4. Frankenstein
10. Bugonia

 4/5 

Original Song

1. "Golden", KPop Demon Hunters
2. "I Lied to You", Sinners
4. "Dear Me", Diane Warren: Relentless
5. "Train Dreams", Train Dreams
-. "Sweet Dreams of Joy", Viva Verdi

4/5 

Visual Effects

1. Avatar: Fire and Ash
2. F1
5. Sinners
7. The Lost Bus
9. Jurassic World Rebirth

3/5

International Feature
And Tunisia was the spoiler--sorry, No Other Choice. 

1. The Secret Agent (Brazil)
2. Sentimental Value (Norway)
3. It Was Just an Accident (France)
4. Sirat (Spain)
6. The Voice of Hind Rajab (Tunisia)

4/5

Animated Feature

1. KPop Demon Hunters
2. Zootopia 2
3. Arco
4. Elio
5. Little Amélie or the Character of Rain

5/5

Documentary Feature

2. The Perfect Neighbor
4. The Alabama Solution
7. Come See Me in the Good Light
8. Mr. Nobody Against Putin
9. Cutting Through Rocks

2/5

TALLIES

Sixteen: Sinners
Thirteen: One Battle After Another
Nine: Frankenstein, Marty Supreme, Sentimental Value
Eight: Hamnet
Five: Train Dreams
Four: Bugonia, F1, The Secret Agent
Two: Avatar: Fire and Ash, Blue Moon, KPop Demon Hunters, It Was Just an Accident, Sirat

Oscar Nominations Predictions 2026

 (Image from The Playlist)

This is a kinda crazy, but I'm calling for three films to get 11+ nominations: Sinners with 15, One Battle After Another with 14, and Hamnet with 11. Also doing very well, thank you, are Marty Supreme, Frankenstein and Sentimental Value: the last one surprises me, because it was snubbed entirely by the Actor Awards (formerly SAG). This season has been dominated by these half dozen films, with other Oscar hopefuls lagging behind. The eventual winner of Best Picture will be one of those top three contenders, and I don't think it's as written in stone for Battle as much as others are predicting. I think PTA will definitely win Director, but Picture might be more of a, well, battle, especially if Sinners beats the nominations record with those 15 noms.

Best Picture

1. One Battle After Another
2. Sinners
3. Hamnet
4. Marty Supreme
5. Frankenstein
6. Sentimental Value
7. Bugonia
8. Train Dreams
9. The Secret Agent
10. It Was Just an Accident
11. F1
12. Wicked: For Good
13. Weapons
14. Avatar: Fire and Ash
15. Sorry, Baby

Director
The top three are very stable, but I find the next four contenders are really battling it out. Trier's film was snubbed--as I previously mentioned--at the Actor Awards, Safdie might be a bit too "out there", Panahi's film has fallen in the rankings, and Del Toro is here because of the strength of his film's crafts. I do think this category is ripe for surprises, though, as it is almost every year.

1. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another
2. Ryan Coogler, Sinners
3. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet
4. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value
5. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme
6. Guillermo Del Toro, Frankenstein
7. Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident
8. Kleber Mendonca Filho, The Secret Agent
9. Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia
10. Clint Bentley, Train Dreams
11. John M. Chu, Wicked: For Good
12. Park Chan-wook, No Other Choice 

Actress
Another category that I think is in flux is this one, with Buckley being the only true 'safe' option. Byrne has swept the critic circles, yes, but this would be her film's only nomination. Reinsve was snubbed (I keep belabouring this point because I think it could really mean something in the end) at the Actors, while Stone has been picking up speed. The fifth slot could be newcomer Infiniti's, but it could just as easily be Hudson or Seyfried.

1. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet
2. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I'd Kick You
3. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value
4. Emma Stone, Bugonia
5. Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another
6. Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue
7. Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee
8. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good
9. Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love
10. Eva Victor, Sorry, Baby

Actor
The top 6 are stable; beyond that, I'd say only Edgerton has a remote chance of snagging a nomination. My gut says that Isaac is more likely than we think, but there's not much evidence to support this assertion. I do think that Moura is in a more precarious place than it seems, as is Jordan.

1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme
2. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another
3. Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon
4. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners
5. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent
6. Jesse Plemons, Bugonia
7. Joel Edgerton, Train Dreams
8. George Clooney, Jay Kelly
9. Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine
10. Lee Byung-hun, No Other Choice
11. Oscar Isaac, Frankenstein 

Supporting Actress
This strikes me as a bit of a bloodbath of a category. I can see any of my top 8 making it in, and I don't think anyone is safe (except Teyana Taylor). I'm rooting for Madigan for the win, and horror has been doing a bit better lately with the Academy, meaning that Mosaku is also in the running. But beyond that? Lilleaas was snubbed (along with everyone else) at the Actor Awards (formerly the SAG Awards), Grande's film has tanked in contention, A'zion is not well known, and Paltrow still has the unspoken connection with a particular, now disgraced, producer that I think is actually making an impact.

1. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another
2. Amy Madigan, Weapons
3. Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners
4. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, Sentimental Value
5. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good
6. Odessa A'zion, Marty Supreme
7. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value
8. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme
9. Regina Hall, One Battle After Another
10. Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine

Supporting Actor
This is unusual: a category in which many of us are having difficulty filling out a top ten. The top five seem very stable, although Caton picking up an Actor Award nomination throwing a slight wrench into things. Sandler, Lindo, and Scott seem like distant runners in the race, and I'm just throwing my own opinion for the tenth slot.

1. Benicio Del Toro, One Battle After Another
2. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another
3. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value
4. Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein
5. Paul Mescal, Hamnet
6. Miles Caton, Sinners
7. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly
8. Delroy Lindo, Sinners
9. Andrew Scott, Blue Moon
10. Jack O'Connell, Sinners

Adapted Screenplay
Another safe top five. 

1. One Battle After Another
2. Hamnet
3. Bugonia
4. Train Dreams
5. Frankenstein
6. No Other Choice
7. Wake Up Dead Man
8. Hedda
9. Nouvelle Vague
10. Wicked: For Good

Original Screenplay
Now here is a category that could reap some big surprises. Will Panahi be snubbed? Will Victor actually get nominated? The Secret Agent could either make a big splash tomorrow morning, or land with a thud. What about dark horse Weapons? 

1. Sinners
2. Sentimental Value
3. Marty Supreme
4. It Was Just An Accident
5. Sorry, Baby
6. The Secret Agent
7. Blue Moon
8. Weapons
9. Jay Kelly
10. If I Had Legs I'd Kick You

Casting 
A new category! Will this be just an award for 'best cast' or 'best ensemble', or will the craft of casting actually be taken quite seriously? I think Wicked's casting was inspired, but the film's disappointing reception may make an impact. Hamnet is actually a small cast, but it's a solid one--does that mean it gets in? Will the two Big Frontrunners of Sinners and One Battle After Another be a shoo-in here, or will the casting directors look elsewhere? This is a big question mark of a category, and it's exciting!

1. Sinners 
2. One Battle After Another
3. Marty Supreme
4. Hamnet
5. Sentimental Value
6. The Secret Agent
7. Weapons
8. Wicked: For Good
9. Frankenstein
10. Sirat

Cinematography

1. Sinners
2. One Battle After Another
3. Train Dreams
4. Frankenstein
5. Hamnet
6. Marty Supreme
7. F1
8. Nouvelle Vague
9. Bugonia
10. Sirat

Editing
A very stable top five.

1. One Battle After Another
2. Marty Supreme
3. Sinners
4. F1
5. Hamnet
6. Sentimental Value
7. Frankenstein
8. Bugonia
9. No Other Choice
10. Sirat

Costume Design
The top four are locked in, but beyond that, this category often throws us a surprise or two. I suspect Hamnet may not be as strong as we think, and that Hedda or Spider Woman may be shockers.

1. Frankenstein
2. Wicked: For Good
3. Sinners
4. Hamnet
5. The Testament of Ann Lee
6. Marty Supreme
7. Hedda
8. One Battle After Another
9. The Secret Agent
10. Kiss of the Spider Woman

Production Design
 I'm putting Avatar in the sixth spot, because I do think there's a bit of a backlash against digital production design. I'm also not confident in Hamnet or Marty Supreme here, though.

1. Frankenstein
2. Sinners
3. Wicked: For Good
4. Hamnet
5. Marty Supreme
6. Avatar: Fire and Ash
7. One Battle After Another
8. The Phoenician Scheme
9. The Testament of Ann Lee
10. The Fantastic Four: First Steps

Makeup & Hairstyling
I expect there to be a surprise here, maybe for The Ugly Stepsister.

1. Frankenstein
2. Sinners
3. Wicked: For Good
4. The Smashing Machine
5. One Battle After Another
6. The Ugly Stepsister
7. Marty Supreme
8. Kokuho
9. Nuremberg
10. The Alto Knights

Sound
A solid top five, with Sirat being the spoiler, I think.

1. F1
2. Sinners
3. One Battle After Another
4. Avatar: Fire and Ash
5. Wicked: For Good
6. Sirat
7. Frankenstein
8. Mission: Impossible - The Final Reckoning
9. Superman
10. Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere

Original Score
It would be cool to have a techno score nominated in Sirat, but I don't think that's actually going to happen!

1. Sinners
2. One Battle After Another
3. Hamnet
4. Frankenstein
5. Marty Supreme
6. Sirat
7. F1
8. Train Dreams
9. Tron: Ares
10. Bugonia

Original Song
This category is always a bit of a crapshoot... who will make it in? Please, not Warren!

1. "Golden", KPop Demon Hunters
2. "I Lied to You", Sinners
3. "The Girl in the Bubble", Wicked: For Good
4. "Dear Me", Diane Warren: Relentless
5. "Train Dreams", Train Dreams
6. "Last Time I Seen the Sun", Sinners
7. "Dream As One", Avatar: Fire and Ash
8. "No Place Like Home", Wicked: For Good
9. "Come See Me in the Good Light", Salt Then Sour Then Sweet
10. "Highest 2 Lowest", Highest 2 Lowest

Visual Effects

1. Avatar: Fire and Ash
2. F1
3. Superman
4. Wicked: For Good
5. Sinners
6. Frankenstein
7. The Lost Bus
8. Tron: Ares
9. Jurassic World Rebirth
10. The Electric State

International Feature
I think the top five is stable, but Tunisia's entry being the potential spoiler. The rest are along for the ride.

1. The Secret Agent (Brazil)
2. Sentimental Value (Norway)
3. It Was Just an Accident (France)
4. Sirat (Spain)
5. No Other Choice (South Korea)
6. The Voice of Hind Rajab (Tunisia)
7. Left Handed Girl (Taiwan)
8. Sound of Falling (Germany)
9. The President's Cake (Iraq)
10. Kokuho (Japan)

Animated Feature
Stable top four, but the rest are slugging it out. 

1. KPop Demon Hunters
2. Zootopia 2
3. Arco
4. Elio
5. Little Amélie or the Character of Rain
6. Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba Infinity Castle
7. Scarlet
8. In Your Dreams
9. Chainsaw Man — The Movie: Reze Arc
10. The Bad Guys 2

Documentary Feature
I never know in this category, yet last year I got four!

1. 2000 Meters to Andriivka
2. The Perfect Neighbor
3. Cover-Up
4. The Alabama Solution
5. Apocalypse in the Tropics
6. My Undesirable Friends
7. Come See Me in the Good Light
8. Mr. Nobody Against Putin
9. Cutting Through Rocks
10. Coexistence, My Ass!

TALLIES

Fifteen: Sinners
Fourteen: One Battle After Another
Eleven: Hamnet
Eight: Frankenstein, Marty Supreme, Sentimental Value
Seven: Wicked: For Good
Four: Train Dreams
Three: Bugonia, F1, It Was Just an Accident, The Secret Agent
Two: Avatar: Fire and Ash, KPop Demon Hunters
One: The Alabama Solution, Apocalypse in the Tropics, 2000 Meters to Andriivka, Arco, Blue Moon, Cover Up, Diane Warren: Relentless, Elio, If I Had Legs I'd Kick You, Little Amélie or the Character of Rain, No Other Choice, The Perfect Neighbor, The Smashing Machine, Sirat, Sorry Baby, Superman, The Testament of Ann Lee, Weapons, Zootopia 2