Here are my annual predictions for the Academy Awards. I predict that One Battle After Another will win 6 Oscars: Best Picture, Director, Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, and Editing. Close behind is Sinners, with Actor, Original Screenplay, Casting, and Original Score. Frankenstein will do well in the crafts, with Costume Design, Makeup and Hairstyling, and Production Design wins. But there is a story here, one of ebbs and flows. One Battle After Another has swept the season, but with a pesky vampire film close behind it, looking for fresh blood.
Best Picture
Once upon a time, Sinners was the clear frontrunner... then One Battle After Another debuted, and it was all over for Sinners. Who could stand up to the severely overdue Paul Thomas Anderson's masterful film? Well, the last month has shown us that Sinners may indeed be the one to overthrow PTA's apparent crowning-in-waiting. The buzz has been behind Coogler's film ever since it destroyed the record for the most nominations in a year, with 16 nods. One Battle has been winning, yes, but I feel it in the air that Sinners is duking it out with PTA, and just may win after all. Of course, that's not counting in TIFF People's Choice and Golden Globe winner Hamnet, which I suspect will do very well on the ranked ballots. I'm not holding my breath, but I have an inkling that Hamnet will be the surprise winner of Best Picture. This is down to the wire, people. After the show, will I be saying "Oh, it was One Battle After Another sweeping the season, after all. How could I have doubted that?" Or will I be going: "I knew it! Sinners pulled the carpet out of PTA's feet!" Or, will I be smacking myself: "I had a feeling it was going to be Hamnet! Why didn't I spring for that?" This is an exciting race, and it's what I look for every season: doubt. Surprises. Shocking winners. I tend to try and predict these surprises, because I overthink things and let this doubt creep in. But the smart money here? One Battle After Another.
Will Win: One Battle After Another
Could Win: Sinners
Dark Horse: Hamnet
Director
PTA is in the lead, as he has been all season, but I think it's become more precarious over time. If Best Picture goes to Sinners, but Coogler misses here, it'll be the third time a Black-directed film wins Picture, but loses out on Directing. That's not a good look, but will voters be aware of this fact? I dunno. I do still think that PTA will take the Oscar, though.
Will Win: Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another
Could Win: Ryan Coogler, Sinners
Dark Horse: Chloé Zhao, Hamnet
Actress
Buckley is in an easy lead here. I don't even know who would be her competition.
Will Win: Jessie Buckley, Hamnet
If Hell Freezes Over: Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I'd Kick You
Actor
Now here's a race, and it's tooth and nail. Chalamet has been the supposed safe winner for most of the season, until he lost the BAFTA (to a non-Oscar nominated Robert Aramayo) and the Actor Award to Jordan. Sinners has been making a late-season surge in hype, and I'm really thinking--as with many other Oscar watchers--that Chalamet has lost his lead. It doesn't help he's been putting his foot in his mouth lately. What a year this has been for Jordan: he started off as the frontrunner, then lost his footing, made it into the nominee list by the slimmest of margins (I do think he was fifth), but then... Sinners has become the talk of the town again with its nominations haul. Wow. But that's not to say that any of the other nominees have no shot: I think this is a category in major flux, and I would honestly not be surprised if any of them take it.
Will Win: Michael B. Jordan, Sinners
Could Win: Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme
Dark Horse: Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another
Supporting Actress
The chaos continues here with probably the most competitive category of the evening. Taylor was in the lead for most of the season, with an early Globes win, but Madigan has always been part of the conversation: it's a beloved performance from a well-liked actress, yet the sole nominee for her film. Horror films also never do that well with the Academy, so they say... but is this still true? I mean, this year alone we have Frankenstein and Sinners racking up the wins and nominations. Mosaku has won the BAFTA and a number of critic awards, and I think she--like Jordan--can take advantage of Sinners' late season surge. I so think, however, that Madigan's now-iconic performance will take the win over Taylor and Mosaku; but it's anyone's guess who will actually win from these three. Will we see a split, and allow Lilleaas to swoop in? Nah. Probably not.
Will Win: Amy Madigan, Weapons
Could Win: Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners
Very Close Behind: Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another
Supporting Actor
Now, Penn is supposedly the clear winner here after his late season domination; but it just doesn't feel right, y'know? Three-time winner, Sean Penn? Yes, his performance dominated the film, and it's pretty weird, too: you can't take your eyes off of him. His co-star Del Toro did very well with the critics' awards, but his buzz seems to have fallen in the latter half of the race. Skarsgård has routinely been touted as the frontrunner, even though he does not have the stats to back this assertion. Time and time again, he has lost: he wasn't even nominated for the Actor Award. I don't think Skarsgård has this. But then, who does? Yes, Penn is the statistical most likely, so if you're trying for your Oscar pool, go with him. But I have a sneaking suspicion that it's gonna be Lindo. I have nothing to back me up here, other than Sinners surging lately, and the fact that he's well-liked by the community and has never been nominated before.
Most Likely: Sean Penn, One Battle After Another
Suspicion!: Delroy Lindo, Sinners
Could Win: Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value
Adapted Screenplay
Easy peasy, lemon squeezy: if PTA loses Director after all, he will still be an Oscar winner for his writing.
Will Win: One Battle After Another
Not Likely: Hamnet
Original Screenplay
And another easy one: Coogler will also be a winner, even if he doesn't "steal" the Oscar for directing away from PTA.
Will Win: Sinners
Very Dark Horse: Sentimental Value
Casting
Sinners has been widely considered the frontrunner of this all season, and I do think that it is the likely winner. But what about the awesome cast of One Battle? Or the use of non-actors in The Secret Agent and Marty Supreme? Or the jackpot that was the children in Hamnet? I do think any of these films would be a worthy winner for the first-ever Casting Oscar.
Will Win: Sinners
Could Win: One Battle After Another
I Want to Win: The Secret Agent
Cinematography
Battle and Sinners are indeed battling it out, once again, for an award. All season long, it's been Sinners out ahead, but with a string of wins lately, One Battle After Another, with its innovative cinematography, has really given Sinners a run for its money. Which one will come out ahead? It's hard to say... and that's not counting Train Dreams, with its beautiful work. Don't be surprised if that one wins, after all.
Will Win: One Battle After Another
Could Win: Sinners
Dark Horse: Train Dreams
Editing
Observers have been saying for most of the race that this is F1's to lose, but that has really turned around in the last month, with One Battle sweeping.
Will Win: One Battle After Another
Could Win: F1
Costume Design
Even people who dislike the film have been saying all season long that Frankenstein is the deserving winner here.
Will Win: Frankenstein
Could Win: Sinners
Production Design
Same thing. It's hard to deny Frankenstein's craft.
Will Win: Frankenstein
Could Win: Sinners
Makeup & Hairstyling
And, once again... Such an interesting mix of nominees, though!
Will Win: Frankenstein
Could Win: Sinners
Sound
Once F1 snagged that Best Picture nomination, it was almost a guaranteed win here... but Sinners is on its tail.
Will Win: F1
Could Win:Sinners
Original Score
An easy win for Sinners, but Greenwood would also be a worthy (first-time!) winner.
Will Win: Sinners
Could Win: One Battle After Another
Original Song
I've been reading that people are actually finally getting sick of that KPop Demon Hunters song, and that this may actually slip out of its hands. Probably not, though.
Will Win: "Golden", KPop Demon Hunters
Could Win: "I Lied to You", Sinners
Please, No: "Dear Me", Diane Warren: Relentless
Visual Effects
An easy win here, but like Original Song, are voters getting tired of Avatar?
Will Win: Avatar: Fire and Ash
Could Win: F1
International Feature
Now, here we have a bit of a confusing category. It would seem that Sentimental Value would be the 'obvious' choice, given its slew of nominations... but The Secret Agent is also in key categories of Picture, Actor, and Casting. It comes down to these two, but It Was Just an Accident is hot on their tracks. I don't see Sirat or The Voice of Hind Rajab making an impact, but with any of these other three, you could make a solid case. Sentimental Value was snubbed at the Actor Awards, but is clearly very well liked by the Academy; The Secret Agent has the international 'Brazilian factor' going on (see last year's winner I'm Still Here); It Was Just an Accident has the obvious political ramifications of an Iranian filmmaker going against the regime. The general consensus is Sentimental Value, but I really do think that The Secret Agent is going to put up a vicious fight.
Will Win: Sentimental Value
Could Win: The Secret Agent
Dark Horse: It Was Just an Accident
Animated Feature
This is very clearly going KPop Demon Hunters, despite the 'anonymous ballots' suggesting some fatigue going on. There is just no clear alternative.
Will Win: KPop Demon Hunters
Could Win: Zootopia 2
Documentary Feature
Smart money is on The Perfect Neighbor, with the alternate being Mr. Nobody Against Putin. I don't see anything else winning, but then again, what do I know? This category, along with the shorts, often pops up surprises for us.
Will Win: The Perfect Neighbor
Could Win: Mr. Nobody Against Putin
Animated Short
This appears to be a battle between Butterfly and The Girl Who Cried Pearls, with Butterfly coming out on top.
Will Win: Butterfly
Could Win: The Girl Who Cried Pearls
Documentary Short
Subtext is everything in All the Empty Rooms, and what subtext! This film screams "Oscar winner" to me, especially given voters' tendencies to reward the politics of the short docs, rather than the quality of the film itself. (I've seen more than a few people critique All the Empty Rooms as being somewhat of a bland film, despite the emotional resonance.) But what could go against it? Maybe Armed With Only a Camera?
Will Win: All the Empty Rooms
Could Win: Armed With Only a Camera
Live Action Short
I've seen all of these, and I'm struggling with my desire of who I want to win with whom I think will win. My favourite was very clearly Two People Exchanging Saliva, and I feel that it's by far and away the most accomplished film here... but it's also patently bizarre and even confrontational with its eccentricities. Does that mean that the adorable, but lightweight, A Friend of Dorothy has a better chance, especially given that it's been campaigned fairly hard and will appeal to voters' liberal politics? I think it might. The Singers is the other short that stands a chance against these two, as it's well made, memorable, and emotionally affecting. I don't see Jane Austen's Period Drama making an impact (it's more like a good SNL sketch), and Butcher's Stain is in my, and in many other people's opinions, not up to par with the others. (I actively disliked the short.) So that means...
Will Win: A Friend of Dorothy
Could Win: Two People Exchanging Saliva
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