How did I do? 87/110, or a B+. This is on par with my usual performance.
Sixteen nominations: a new record by Sinners. And the kicker? It would have broken the record even without the new category of Casting. This is surely the story of the morning, but there's another one that I think is also quite interesting.
I have never seen an actual snub like this one. I was calling for seven nominations for Wicked: For Good, and it received... none. I think we in the awards race overuse the term "snub", but this certainly should count as one. What happened? I think the fact that the two films are basically just one very long movie split into two meant that nominators saw the film already be awarded last year. But that explanation still doesn't quite sit right with me. I think analysts will be looking at this one for a long time to come.
One Battle After Another is in second place with 13 nominations, missing one with Chase Infiniti, who was edged out by Kate Hudson--not an entirely unforeseen situation, mind you. Hamnet didn't do quite as well as I thought, with Paul Mescal missing, but Sentimental Value did very well indeed. That film missing nominations at the Actor Awards can now be seen as an anomaly, and Skarsgård may actually win the Oscar. Also doing very well are Frankenstein and Marty Supreme. It may be unusual for a film with nine nominations to miss out a Directing nod, but Del Toro was squeaked out by Trier and Safie--two other filmmakers with nine-time nominated films. I think that this year saw a relatively small number of films dominating, with massive hauls.
Other surprises? Avatar getting into costumes; visual effects not going the way many were expecting; and makeup & hairstyling going for some more obscure work (which actually isn't all that surprising: this category very often goes its own way). I didn't see that Viva Verdi song coming--I haven't even heard of the film--but other than these relatively minor surprises, there weren't very many.
Best Picture
1. One Battle After Another
2. Sinners
3. Hamnet
4. Marty Supreme
5. Frankenstein
6. Sentimental Value
7. Bugonia
8. Train Dreams
9. The Secret Agent
11. F1
9/10
Director
Huh. I was anticipating a surprise, maybe two, but instead got all five.
1. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another
2. Ryan Coogler, Sinners
3. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet
4. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value
5. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme
5/5
Actress
1. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet
2. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I'd Kick You
3. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value
4. Emma Stone, Bugonia
6. Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue
4/5
Actor
1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme
2. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another
3. Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon
4. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners
5. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent
5/5
Supporting Actress
Even Grande was a victim of the Wicked: For Good snub going on.
1. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another
2. Amy Madigan, Weapons
3. Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners
4. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, Sentimental Value
7. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value
4/5
Supporting Actor
I'm actually surprised that Mescal didn't land here: category fraud? Too subtle?
1. Benicio Del Toro, One Battle After Another
2. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another
3. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value
4. Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein
8. Delroy Lindo, Sinners
4/5
Adapted Screenplay
1. One Battle After Another
2. Hamnet
3. Bugonia
4. Train Dreams
5. Frankenstein
5/5
Original Screenplay
1. Sinners
2. Sentimental Value
3. Marty Supreme
4. It Was Just An Accident
7. Blue Moon
4/5
Casting
And that was less surprising than I thought it would be.
1. Sinners
2. One Battle After Another
3. Marty Supreme
4. Hamnet
6. The Secret Agent
4/5
Cinematography
1. Sinners
2. One Battle After Another
3. Train Dreams
4. Frankenstein
6. Marty Supreme
4/5
Editing
1. One Battle After Another
2. Marty Supreme
3. Sinners
4. F1
6. Sentimental Value
4/5
Costume Design
The top four are locked in, but beyond that, this category often throws us a surprise or two. I suspect Hamnet may not be as strong as we think, and that Hedda or Spider Woman may be shockers.
1. Frankenstein
3. Sinners
4. Hamnet
6. Marty Supreme
-. Avatar: Fire and Ash
3/5
Production Design
1. Frankenstein
2. Sinners
4. Hamnet
5. Marty Supreme
7. One Battle After Another
4/5
Makeup & Hairstyling
1. Frankenstein
2. Sinners
4. The Smashing Machine
6. The Ugly Stepsister
8. Kokuho
3/5
Sound
1. F1
2. Sinners
3. One Battle After Another
6. Sirat
7. Frankenstein
3/5
Original Score
1. Sinners
2. One Battle After Another
3. Hamnet
4. Frankenstein
10. Bugonia
4/5
Original Song
1. "Golden", KPop Demon Hunters
2. "I Lied to You", Sinners
4. "Dear Me", Diane Warren: Relentless
5. "Train Dreams", Train Dreams
-. "Sweet Dreams of Joy", Viva Verdi
4/5
Visual Effects
1. Avatar: Fire and Ash
2. F1
5. Sinners
7. The Lost Bus
9. Jurassic World Rebirth
3/5
International Feature
And Tunisia was the spoiler--sorry, No Other Choice.
1. The Secret Agent (Brazil)
2. Sentimental Value (Norway)
3. It Was Just an Accident (France)
4. Sirat (Spain)
6. The Voice of Hind Rajab (Tunisia)
4/5
Animated Feature
1. KPop Demon Hunters
2. Zootopia 2
3. Arco
4. Elio
5. Little Amélie or the Character of Rain
5/5
Documentary Feature
2. The Perfect Neighbor
4. The Alabama Solution
7. Come See Me in the Good Light
8. Mr. Nobody Against Putin
9. Cutting Through Rocks
2/5
TALLIES
Sixteen: Sinners
Thirteen: One Battle After Another
Nine: Frankenstein, Marty Supreme, Sentimental Value
Eight: Hamnet
Five: Train Dreams
Four: Bugonia, F1, The Secret Agent
Two: Avatar: Fire and Ash, Blue Moon, KPop Demon Hunters, It Was Just an Accident, Sirat
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