BAFTA Reactions

This morning, the British Academy of Film and Television revealed its slate of nominees. While there are always significant differences from the American Academy's nominees, the BAFTAs can be a sign of surprise nominees and snubs in the Oscar race. Much is written about a supposedly large number of  British voters in the Oscars, and if a film fails to do well with the BAFTAs, it can be sometimes reflected on this side of the pond.

So how does this morning's announcement effect my predictions?





My Best Picture lineup remains unchanged, with my top four selections all making it in. Silver Linings Playbook hasn't fared as well in the UK, so its miss --Life of Pi, my #6, fills out the slate-- shouldn't be read too much in to.

Director
One of the big stories this morning was Spielberg and Hooper's miss for Director. Instead, Tarantino and Haneke join DGA nominees Affleck, Bigelow and Lee. I am surprised at Spielberg's miss, but Lincoln still managed to snag the most nominations this morning -- he's definitely safe. I would give more credence to Hooper's snub: the film is already divisive amongst critics, with detractors generally citing Hooper's directorial choices as reasons why they dislike the film. It's certainly possible that he'll miss out on Thursday morning, replaced by someone that the director's branch just may have enough passion votes to push over the edge: Michael Haneke. As such, my Director lineup changes, with Hooper moving down, Lee moving up, and Haneke remaining at #6 -- I'm still keeping the five DGA nominees, but am still really anticipating Hooper to be replaced by Haneke, Russell or Tarantino.
1. Ben Affleck, Argo
2. Kathryn Bigelow, Zero Dark Thirty
3. Steven Spielberg, Lincoln
4. Ang Lee, Life of Pi (+1)
5. Tom Hooper, Les Misérables (-1)
6. Michael Haneke, Amour
7. Quentin Tarantino, Django Unchained (+1)
8. David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook
9. Paul Thomas Anderson, The Master
10. Wes Anderson, Moonrise Kingdom

Supporting Acting
Maggie Smith's snub makes me feel more comfortable predicting that Amy Adams will sneak in instead. If the Brits didn't nominate Smith... DeNiro's lack of presence at both the Globes and the BAFTAs makes me feel that he's more likely to miss out on Thursday than Bardem, who now has both SAG and BAFTA support. My lineup now becomes:
1. Hoffmann
2. Jones
3. Arkin
4. Bardem (+1)
5. DeNiro (-1)
6. Waltz (+1)
7. DiCapiro (-1)

Screenplay
My Original Screenplay predictions line up with the five BAFTA nominees, and remain unchanged. In the Adapted category, Life of Pi is now firmly in place, but I'm intrigued by Beasts of the Southern Wild making an appearance. Many prognosticators are predicting that it will make it in for the Oscars -- does it have more traction than Chbosky's Wallflower script? I'm not sure. My lineup now has Life of Pi up to #4, ahead of The Perks of Being a Wallflower at #5.

Cinematography
Skyfall, Life of Pi and Lincoln from my predicted Oscar lineup join Anna Karenina and Les Misérables. Maybe Zero Dark Thirty isn't as safe as I thought, and maybe I should take Critics Choice nominee Les Miz more seriously.
1. Skyfall
2. Life of Pi
3. The Master
4. Lincoln (+1)
5. Les Misérables (+3)
6. Zero Dark Thirty (-2)
7. Django Unchained (-1)
8. Argo (-1)
9. Anna Karenina (+1)
10. Moonrise Kingdom (-1)

Editing
Skyfall and Django were nominated, Les Miz and Lincoln were not. I didn't feel comfortable placing Kahn so high before, although he is a respected editor on an Oscar frontrunner. I'm feeling more confident in Django's chances, and less so on Les Miz. As such:
1. Zero Dark Thirty
2. Argo
3. Life of Pi (+1)
4. Django Unchained (+2)
5. Lincoln (-2)
6. Les Misérables (-1)

Production Design
Anna Karenina, Lincoln and Les Miz remain in my top echelon, and Life of Pi's now trifecta of AGA, Critics Choice and BAFTA move it up to #4. Remaining BAFTA nominee Skyfall still doesn't feel like a safe bet to me, while Django does. My lineup now becomes:
1. Anna Karenina
2. Lincoln
3. Les Misérables
4. Life of Pi (+5)
5. Django Unchained (-1)
6. Prometheus (-1)
7. The Hobbit (-1)
8. The Master
9. Skyfall (+4)
10. Cloud Atlas (-3)
11. Moonrise Kingdom (-1)
12. A Royal Affair (-1)
13. Argo (-1)
14. The Impossible (-1)
15. The Dark Knight Rises (-1)