IT'S OSCAR NOMINATION TIME! That's right, boys and girls. Time to get up early, load up a stream on Oscar.com, and watch as bleary-eyed celebrities and journalists react to the news. I think many Oscar watchers would agree with me that this is actually the more exciting event of the Academy Awards, over the grand ceremony in a few months. There are just so many possibilities, so much hypothesizing, and so much anticipation: what will be snubbed, as inevitably something will be? Who will be nominated that no one saw coming?
These surprises are what many of us in the Oscar watching game really thrive on, and why we keep coming back year after year. I still remember the feeling of stunned giddiness when Alan Alda was nominated for The Aviator, or that brief moment in the winter of 2007 watching Sid Ganis and Salma Hayek listed off the five Best Picture nominees... and realized that something was missing. (That was the perceived frontrunner Dreamgirls, which many predicted would win the Best Picture Oscar and was indeed the most nominated film that year.) Or how about last year, the first time a flexible number of Best Picture nominees was possible, when Tom Sherak and Jennifer Lawrence listed off eight nominees, filling the screens behind them in a nice symmetrical pattern... and then delivered a delightful (or horrific, depending on who you ask) shockwave felt around the Oscar-net when Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close popped up on the monitor above their heads as the ninth nominee. Truly delicious, especially for those that obsess about these things. It's all remarkably inconsequential in the greater scheme of things. We know this. But when these surprises happen, it's like a jolt of "Wowwww, I didn't see that coming!" or "They got snubbed! Hahahahahaaaaa!!!"
And so, without much further ado, let's get to my predictions, shall we?
BEST PICTURE
Who's in 'for sure'? Argo, Lincoln, Zero Dark Thirty, Les Misérables.
Who's probably in? Silver Linings Playbook, Life of Pi
Who do I think has a very good chance? Django Unchained
Who's on the cusp? Amour, Beasts of the Southern Wild, Skyfall, Moonrise Kingdom
Who might surprise? The Master, The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel, The Intouchables, The Impossible
1. Argo (Globes, DGA, SAG, PGA, WGA, NBR, AFI, NSFC Winner, Chicago)
2. Lincoln (Globes, DGA, SAG, PGA, WGA, NBR, AFI, Chicago)
3. Zero Dark Thirty (DGA, PGA, NYFCC, NBR Winner, AFI, NSFC, Chicago, Boston)
4. Les Misérables (Globes, DGA, SAG, PGA, NBR, AFI)
5. Silver Linings Playbook (Globes, SAG, PGA, NBR, AFI, TIFF)
6. Life of Pi (Globes, DGA, PGA, WGA, AFI)
7. Django Unchained (Globes, PGA, AFI)
8. Amour (LAFC, Palme d'Or, variety of "Best Foreign Language")
9. Beasts of the Southern Wild (PGA, NBR, AFI, Chicago, Camera d'Or)
10. Skyfall (PGA)
11. Moonrise Kingdom (Globes, PGA, AFI)
12. The Master (Globes, NSFC, Chicago)
13. The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel (Globes, SAG)
14. The Impossible
15. The Intouchables
Other Contenders: Anna Karenina, The Dark Knight Rises (AFI), Flight, The Sessions, The Avengers, The Dark Knight Rises, The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey, Rust and Bone, Holy Motors, Take this Waltz, Hitchcock
DIRECTOR
Affleck looks to be the next actor-turned-director to nab the top prize. The top four seem to be safe bets, but with such a strong year, many are expecting some surprises throughout the nominations. Will this category be one of them? That fifth slot in particular is rather volatile, with Haneke, Russell, Lee and Tarantino all very plausible contenders, with the two Andersons breathing down everyone's neck. It'll be interesting to see who makes this list on Thursday.
1. Ben Affleck, Argo (DGA, Globes, CC, Chicago)
2. Kathryn Bigelow, Zero Dark Thirty (DGA, NYFCC, NBR, NFSC, Globes, Chicago, Boston)
3. Steven Spielberg, Lincoln (DGA, Globes, CC, Chicago)
4. Tom Hooper, Les Misérables (DGA, CC)
5. Ang Lee, Life of Pi (DGA, Globes, CC)
6. Michael Haneke, Amour (NFSC Winner
7. David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook (CC)
8. Quentin Tarantino, Django Unchained (Globes)
9. Paul Thomas Anderson, The Master (LAFCA, NFSC, Chicago, Boston)
10. Wes Anderson, Moonrise Kingdom
11. Benh Zeitlin, Beasts of the Southern Wild (Chicago
12. Sam Mendes, Skyfall
Robert Zemeckis, Flight
Other Contenders: John Madden (The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel), J.A. Boyana (The Impossible), Christopher Nolan (The Dark Knight Rises), Joe Wright (Anna Karenina), Ben Lewin (The Sessions), Peter Jackson (The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey), Sarah Polley (Take this Waltz)
ACTRESS
This is one of the key categories to watch on Thursday morning, given the very strong roster of candidates vying for a nomination. Of particular interest is whether or not Riva will make it in. It's easily one of the most praised performances of the year, but word is that many Academy voters didn't see the film in time. Could that also explain her miss with the SAG? Helen Mirren instead appeared as a SAG nominee, and not without due cause: her performance, as per usual, is excellent, and she's the best part of the breezy film. Still, I feel that Naomi Watts will sneak in with her work on The Impossible -- though I somehow feel that this film, moreso than Amour, will be the Academy's "we didn't see it in time" casualty. Another casualty looks to be young Quvenzhané Wallis, who only a few months ago some were calling to be the youngest Oscar winner ever. What happened? Buzz run out of steam? Questions around acting versus directing, especially for someone so young? Bizarre category confusion? (Young actors are often placed in Supporting, no matter how much they dominate the playing time. Most recently, True Grit, and before that, studio attempts to get Castle-Hughes nominated as supporting for Whale Rider -- one of the few times the Academy said "uh, no. Leading Actress, clearly.") But it would be a great story, wouldn't it? And what a firecracker of a performance!
Marion Cotillard has been a major player so far in the circuit... but I have a gut feeling that she is the weak link here. How many have seen the performance? (Yup, that reasoning again. That makes three so far.) Where is the buzz? Besides being nominated over and over again, I don't feel the passion vote behind her. I'm reading more about Riva, Watts, Mirren, Wallis, even Weisz. Guy Lodge of In Contention is predicting a snub for her, and I think he's onto something. (Oh, and of course, Lawrence and Chastain are battling for the win.)
1. Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook (LAFC, SAG, Globes, CC, NSFC, Chicago)
2. Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty (NBR, SAG, Globes, CC, NSFC, Chicago)
3. Emmanuelle Riva, Amour (LAFC, CC, NFSC Winner, Chicago, Boston)
4. Marion Cotillard, Rust and Bone (SAG, Globes, CC)
5. Naomi Watts, The Impossible (SAG, Globes, CC, Chicago
6. Helen Mirren, Hitchcock (SAG
7. Quvenzhané Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild (CC, Chicago
8. Rachel Weisz, The Deep Blue Sea (NYFCC, Globes9. Maggie Smith, Quartet
10. Linda Cardellini, Return
11. Keira Knightley, Anna Karenina
12. Judi Dench, The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
13. Michelle Williams, Take this Waltz
ACTOR
Daniel Day-Lewis and Jackman are in, probably along with Hawkes. But many questions remain. Despite Phoenix missing out on a SAG nomination, I somehow feel that he'll make it in -- but he's a volatile personality, and some Academy members may point their noses up at him. Is there enough love there to push him in? Could Trintignant be co-nominated with Riva, especially considering that the film is driven equally by both of them? Is Cooper as safe as some are making him out to be? Does Washington's powerhouse performance make him a sure-fire nominee? And what about the once mega-buzzed performance by Hopkins? Hmmm!
1. Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln (NYFCC, Globes, SAG, CC, NFSC Winner, Chicago, Boston)
2. Hugh Jackman, Les Misérables (Globes, SAG, CC)
3. John Hawkes, The Sessions (Globes, SAG, CC, Chicago)
4. Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook (NBR, Globes, SAG, CC)
5. Joaquin Phoenix, The Master (LAFC, Globes, CC, NSFC, Chicago)
6. Denzel Washington, Flight (Globes, SAG, CC, Chicago)
7. Jean-Louis Trintignant, Amour
8. Anthony Hopkins, Hitchcock
9. Richard Gere, Arbitrage (Globes)
10. Denis Lavant, Holy Motors (NSFC, Chicago, Boston)
Other Contenders: Jack Black (Bernie), Jamie Foxx (Django Unchained), Bill Murray (Hyde Park on Hudson), Omar Sy (The Intouchables), Ben Affleck (Argo), Suraj Sharma (Life of Pi), Jake Gyllenhaal (End of Watch)
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Hathaway and Field will battle it out for Oscar glory, but who else will join them? I'm betting that Kidman's (surprising) SAG and Globe nom is a sign of things to come, and Hunt has been buzzed around the circuit for months. I think they're both in, with Hunt being a possible 'surprise snub'. I think that the fifth position is between Adams and Smith, and many people seem to agree. Adams is an Academy favourite, with three nods in seven years, and a widely acclaimed performance that may be her best yet. Then why does she strike as a likely snub, and why did she miss out on the SAG? 'Tis interesting, indeed. Add six-time nominee and double winner Dame Maggie Smith in, and we have a full slate of Academy Award favourites. Smith is riding a wave of goodwill with Downtown Abbey, and her spunky performance was a highlight in a surprise indie smash. She's definitely a big possibility, and in fact most prognosticators have her on their lists. Maybe I should reconsider... but who do I move down? I feel confident with Kidman, but is that a silly move? Am I right in my feeling that Hunt will be the snub? Or will Ann Dowd, who has been doing well among the critics, be the surprise and bump off Adams and Smith? So many possibilities! So many stories! (Oh, and let's not forget the awesomeness of Judi Dench's M. Or Jacki Weaver in Silver Linings, or even Miss Emma Watson. Wouldn't that be neat?)
1. Anne Hathaway, Les Misérables (SAG, Globes, CC, NSFC, Chicago)
2. Sally Field, Lincoln (SAG, NYFCC, Globes, CC, NSFC, Chicago, Boston)
3. Nicole Kidman, The Paperboy (SAG, Globes)
4. Helen Hunt, The Sessions (SAG, Globes, CC, Chicago)
5. Amy Adams, The Master (LAFC, Globes, CC, NSFC Winner, Chicago
6. Maggie Smith, The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel (SAG, Globes
7. Ann Dowd, Compliance (NBR, CC)
8. Judi Dench, Skyfall (Chicago)9. Samantha Barks, Les Misérables
10. Emma Watson, The Perks of Being a Wallflower (Boston)
11. Jacki Weaver, Silver Linings Playbook
SUPPORTING ACTOR
What a crazy year for this category. I really have no idea how to gauge who will make the top five, although I'm pretty confident in the top three here. Beyond that, it gets very murky: three gentlemen from Django are in contention, with Waltz and DiCaprio being consistently cited, and Samuel L. Jackson being a dark horse; Bardem's SAG-nominated scenery-chewing; and McConaughey's critically acclaimed, delicious performance in Magic Mike. Dwight Henry from Beasts has been popping up regularly, and let's not forget Wallflower's Ezra Miller, either.
1. Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master (SAG, Globes, CC, NSFC, Chicago
2. Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln (SAG, Globes, CC, NSFC, Chicago
3. Alan Arkin, Argo (SAG, Globes, CC
4. Robert DeNiro, Silver Linings Playbook (SAG, CC
5. Javier Bardem, Skyfall (SAG, CC
6. Leonardo DiCaprio, Django Unchained (NBR, Globes, Chicago
7. Christoph Waltz, Django Unchained (Globes, Boston
8. Matthew McConaughey, Magic Mike (NYFCC, CC, NSFC Winner
9. Samuel L. Jackson, Django Unchained
10. Dwight Henry, Beasts of the Southern Wild (LAFC, Chicago
11. Ezra Miller, The Perks of Being a Wallflower (Boston)
12. Jason Clarke, Zero Dark Thirty (Chicago
13. Michael Pena, End of Watch
14. Eddie Redmayne, Les Misérables
15. Tom Wilkinson, The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
WRITING, ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
The only one here that I think is a lock is Mark Boal's script for Zero Dark Thirty, which I also think is on its way to his second Oscar -- for his second screenplay to boot. (What was his first? Why, The Hurt Locker, my dear.) While I'm certainly not confident in placing it second, I think if any branch will appreciate The Master, this will be it. Tarantino has done well in this branch in the past, and this script has been praised for some time now, before production even started. There are three films that are battling for the last spot in my view: Wes Anderson's career-best Moonrise Kingdom, Rian Johnson's twisted Looper and Austrian auteur Michael Haneke for Amour. So who will make it in? Anderson has his detractors, Looper is 'genre fare', and Haneke has yet to appear in the precursors. I'm guessing that Johnson will be the man down. On the outskirts, we have a pile of other contenders: this branch likes to surprise us each year. Something is saying to me "watch out for Seven Psychopaths!", but it's definitely a long shot. I'm just hoping that Flight doesn't make it in: I liked the film, but certainly not for its clichéd script.
1. Mark Boal, Zero Dark Thirty (Globes, WGA, CC, Chicago
2. Paul Thomas Anderson, The Master (WGA, CC, NSFC, Chicago
3. Quentin Tarantino, Django Unchained (Globes, CC, Chicago
4. Wes Anderson & Roman Coppola, Moonrise Kingdom (WGA, CC, Chicago, Boston
5. Michael Haneke, Amour
6. Rian Johnson, Looper (NBR, WGA, CC, Chicago
7. John Gatins, Flight (WGA, CC)
8. Ava DuVernay, Middle of Nowhere
9. The Intouchables
10. Nicholas Jarecki, Arbitrage
11. Magic Mike
12. Brave
13. Seven Psychopaths
14. The Impossible
15. Take This Waltz
Other Possibilities: Damsels in Distress, Promised Land, Hope Springs, End of Watch, Ruby Sparks
WRITING, ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Kushner, Russell and Terrio are the most likely nominees. If any of them miss, it will definitely be a shock. Chbosky has been doing well in the precursors, but some are wondering if the film will have been seen by enough of the branch, or seen as too lightweight. I think it'll be nominated nonetheless. Life of Pi has been seen as primarily a director's achievement, as there have been some criticisms of its script, particularly the first act of the film (something I don't understand, as it was my favourite part). But as a strong Picture and Director candidate, I'll be surprised if it doesn't make it in. So that leaves two films in particular on the outskirts: Beasts of the Southern Wild and The Sessions. Like Flight in the Original category, I hope Sessions and its cliched-riddled script fails to make it in. Now that is definitely a director's success, not a writerly one.
1. Tony Kushner, Lincoln (NYFCC, Globes, WGA, CC, NSFC Winner, Chicago, Boston)
2. David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook (Globes, WGA, CC, NSFC, Chicago)
3. Chris Terrio, Argo (LAFC, Globes, WGA, CC, Chicago)
4. Stephen Chbosky, The Perks of Being a Wallflower (WGA, CC)
5. David Magee, Life of Pi (WGA, CC)
6. Benh Zeitlin & Lucy Alibar, Beasts of the Southern Wild
7. Ben Lewin, The Sessions
8. John Logan, Neal Purvin & Robert Wade, Skyfall
9. Tom Stoppard, Anna Karenina
10. William Nicholson, Les Misérables
11. Richard Linklater & Skip Hollandsworth, Bernie
12. Ol Parker, The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
Quartet, Hitchcock, This is 40, The Dark Knight Rises, The Avengers, The Hunger Games, Cloud Atlas, Rust and Bone, The Deep Blue Sea, The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
CINEMATOGRAPHY
I feel fairly confident that the top four listed here --Zero Dark Thirty with its 'in-the-dark' sequence, Skyfall and its Shanghai, Life of Pi's visual wonderment and the incredible compositions of The Master-- will be cited, leaving a number of films battling for the final spot. I have a feeling that Spielberg's regular cinematographer will make it, pushing out Django and Karenina. Les Miz has been roundly criticized for its over-reliance on close-ups, but otherwise it's a handsome film.
1. Roger Deakins, Skyfall (LAFC, CC, NSFC, Chicago)
2. Cloudio Miranda, Life of Pi (CC, Chicago, Boston)
3. Mihai Malalmare Jr., The Master (CC, NSFC Winner, Chicago, Boston)
4. Greig Fraser, Zero Dark Thirty (NYFCC, NSFC, Chicago)
5. Janusz Kaminski, Lincoln (CC, Chicago)
6. Robert Richardson, Django Unchained
7. Rodrigo Prieto, Argo
8. Danny Cohen, Les Misérables (CC)
9. Robert Yeoman, Moonrise Kingdom (Boston)
10. Seamus McGarvey, Anna Karenina
Other Contenders: Prometheus, Beasts of the Southern Wild, The Dark Knight Rises, Samsara, Cloud Atlas, The Impossible
FILM EDITING
A difficult category to call, given the lack of precursors. That said, Zero Dark Thirty and Argo are comfortable calls, and have been cited by many as one of the highlight features of both acclaimed films. Coincidentally, they're both cut by William Goldenberg, who may be one of the only editors nominated twice in the same year. (I'm too lazy to look that up right now.) Michael Kahn, Spielberg's longtime editor, looks to be in the mix with the presumed Best Picture frontrunner. The connection between the two categories has long been noted --much has been said about Brokeback Mountain's miss with the branch as a sign of things to come-- so it's a strategy to make your top five match up with what you think the Best Picture nominees, or with the new flexible system the frontrunners, will be. As such, I feel that Les Miz should be among the five, but it seems the kind of film that would miss here especially given the criticisms surrounding the (over)use of close-ups and running time. So maybe Life of Pi is more likely to appear... but there have been criticisms surrounding its pacing, too. Perhaps this is why some prognosticators are calling for Silver Linings Playbook and Django Unchained to be among the nominees, even with a general lack of precursor attention: they're among the films generally seen to be in or near the top five Best Picture candidates. (This is also Tarantino's first film since the passing of his close friend and editor Sally Menke.) If I had my way, Anna Karenina would definitely be in the mix. But I'm going with the Critics Choice nominees as my top candidates for now, and will be particularly interested in this category on Thursday morning.
1. William Goldenberg & Dylan Tichenor, Zero Dark Thirty (LAFC, CC, Chicago, Boston)
2. William Goldenberg, Argo (CC, Chicago, Boston)
3. Michael Kahn, Lincoln (CC)
4. Tim Squyers, Life of Pi (CC)
5. Melanie Oliver & Chris Dickens, Les Misérables (CC
6. Fred Raskin, Django Unchained
7. Jay Cassidy, Silver Linings Playbook
8. Leslie Jones & Peter McNulty, The Master (Chicago)
9. Stuart & Kate Baird, Skyfall (Chicago)
10. Leslie Jones & Peter Cloud Atlas (Chicago)
11. Melanie Ann Oliver, Anna Karenina
12. Crockett Doob & Alfonso Gonçalves, Beasts of the Southern Wild
Other Possibilities: The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey, Prometheus, Flight, The Avengers, The Amazing Spider-Man, The Dark Knight Rises, Moonrise Kingdom, Amour
PRODUCTION DESIGN
What missed the AGA? The Master and Moonrise Kingdom. Ouch -- and a sign of things to come? Anna Karenina better be nominated, because it should easily win come ceremony time. Lincoln and Les Misérables are handsome period pieces --always a plus for this category-- and they're Picture frontrunners. They're probably in. Prometheus' designs were stunning, but will the sour taste the narrative left kill any Oscar chances for the film's other elements? It's a good chance, and there are a pile of other films ready to take its place.
1. Anna Karenina (AGA Period, CC, Chicago)
2. Lincoln (AGA Period, CC, Chicago)
3. Les Misérables (AGA Period, CC, Chicago)
4. Django Unchained (AGA Period)
5. Prometheus (AGA Fantasy)
6. The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey (AGA Fantasy, CC)
7. Cloud Atlas (AGA Fantasy)
8. The Master (LAFC, Chicago)
9. Life of Pi (AGA Fantasy, CC)
10. Moonrise Kingdom (Chicago)
11. A Royal Affair
12. Argo (AGA Period)
13. Skyfall (AGA Contemporary)
14. The Impossible (AGA Contemporary)
15. The Dark Knight Rises
COSTUME DESIGN
Another difficult category to call -- but there are some historical clues. And what, I pray thee, are those? Royalty + poofy dresses + period pieces = OSCAR! Anna Karenina, you're in. A Royal Affair, your chances are good. Lincoln may not have royalty, but it has 19th century Americana and frontrunner status. Around the Oscar blogs, Django has been thrown around a lot as a nominee, and I'm inclined to agree. I probably should be putting the two Snow White films higher on my lists, but I'm just not feeling it.
1. Anna Karenina (CC)
2. Les Misérables (CC)
3. Django Unchained
4. Lincoln (CC)
5. A Royal Affair
6. Argo
7. The Master
8. Cloud Atlas (CC)
9. The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey (CC)
10. Hitchcock
11. Prometheus
12. Snow White and the Huntsman
13. Mirror Mirror
Other Contenders:
Moonrise Kingdom, The Hunger Games, Dark Shadows, The Avengers, Lawless
MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
One of the bake-off categories, seven films have made it through to this stage, and now three will move on to be nominated. I'm confident in Jackson's film even given the potential CGI-hate, but beyond that, it's difficult to really say. Any of them have a very good chance. (Except Snow White and the Huntsman. Sorry.) This branch always likes to throw a good curveball, and it's already done so this year: where's Holy Motors? Boo-urns, branch. Boo-urns. Also note that this is the first year that the category is called "Makeup and Hairstyling". Maybe that would have helped Hairspray with that nomination a few years ago, one of Oscar's big mistakes in recent years. (Although I think I may be alone with that opinion. Ah, well.) Lincoln and Les Miz are my two choices, for no real reason other than they're Best Picture frontrunners. I would not be surprised if MIB3 is indeed in the mix -- it is, after all, Rick Baker.
1. The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey (CC
2. Lincoln (CC
3. Les Misérables (CC
4. Men in Black 3
5. Hitchcock
6. Looper
7. Snow White and the Huntsman
ORIGINAL SCORE
I'm really hoping that Danna gets his first Oscar nomination this year, as he's one of my favourite contemporary score composers (Capote, Little Miss Sunshine, Moneyball). Him and Ang Lee have had a long working relationship, so here's hoping! This notably insular category likes to nominate those with past success: Williams and and Marianelli are good choices, although Newman and Desplat may suffer from split votes. Desplat's Argo score is the most likely of his to be cited, but he also scored two other Best Picture contenders. Could he be a double nominee, or will he be excised completely? For Newman, I have a gut feeling that Skyfall's general buzz, along with traction from Adele's title song, will pull it into the top five -- but what of the 'exotic' Orientalism of The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel? It's an interesting possibility. Hovering around the edges are three films with never-before-nominated composers. I'm hoping, and I think with a lot of other cineastes, that the branch will make amends for its past sins against Greenwood (There Will Be Blood's miss in 2007 has now become quite infamous), but if they did it before... Cloud Atlas' score has been well liked and even Globe-nominated, and Beasts has also been routinely praised for its music. Both are definite possibilities.
1. Dario Marianelli, Anna Karenina (Globes)
2. Mychael Danna, Life of Pi (Globes, CC)
3. John Williams, Lincoln (Globes, CC)
4. Thomas Newman, Skyfall (Thomas Newman)
5. Alexandre Desplat, Argo (Globes, CC, Chicago)
6. Jonny Greenwood, The Master (CC, Chicago
7. Reinhold Hell, Johnny Klimek, Tom Twyker, Cloud Atlas (Globes)
8. Dan Romer & Benh Zeitlin, Beasts of the Southern Wild (LAFC, Chicago
9. Howard Shore, The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
10. Alexandre Desplat, Zero Dark Thirty (Chicago)
11. Alexandre Desplat, Moonrise Kingdom (Chicago)
ORIGINAL SONG
The contenders have been boiled down to a massive list of 75 compositions in the branch's bake-off system. There were some casualties (Kylie Minogue's "***" from Holy Motors strikes me as a tragic victim of the branch's bland tastes), and as usual, it's difficult to tell what will make it. Many don't even bother predicting this category, given the large number of candidates and a rather unconventional electoral process. But I think there's a few strong possibilities...
1. "Skyfall" from Skyfall
2. "Suddenly" from Les Misérables
From Django Unchained: "Ancora Qui", "Freedom", "Who Did That to You?"
From Brave: "Learn Me Right", "Touch the Sky"
From Joyful Noise: "From Here to the Moon and Back"
From Life of Pi: "Pi's Lullaby"
From Wreck-It Ralph: "When Can I See You Again?"
From Paul Williams Still Alive: "Still Alive"
SOUND EDITING
1. Skyfall
2. The Avengers
3. Django Unchained
4. Zero Dark Thirty
5. Prometheus
6. Life of Pi
7. The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
8. Les Misérables
9. The Dark Knight Rises
10. Wreck-It Ralph
11. Brave
12. Flight
13. Looper
14. Cloud Atlas
15. The Bourne Legacy
Other Possibilities: The Impossible, Jack Reacher, John Carter, Battleship, Snow White and the Huntsman, The Amazing Spider-Man, Men in Black 3, The Hunger Games, The Grey, Frankenweenie, Paranorman, Rise of the Guardians, Argo
SOUND MIXING
1. Les Misérables (CAS)
2. Skyfall (CAS)
3. Zero Dark Thirty (CAS)
4. The Avengers
5. Django Unchained
6. The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey (CAS)
7. Prometheus
8. Lincoln (CAS)
9. The Dark Knight Rises
10. Life of Pi
11. Flight
12. Looper
13. Cloud Atlas
14. Brave (CAS)
Other Possiblities: The Impossible, Jack Reacher, John Carter, The Amazing Spider-Man, The Grey, Frankenweenie (CAS), Rise of the Guardians (CAS), The Hunger Games, Rock of Ages, The Bourne Legacy, Wreck-It Ralph (CAS),
VISUAL EFFECTS
The top three listed here, as in many other categories, are comfortable predictions. Of them, The Avengers feels like a surprise snub to me, but I have nothing to base that on. Prometheus' technical aspects are stunning, but as I have already mentioned, the general antipathy towards the film just may cause a problem for its Oscar chances. Then again, narrative and directorial disasters get routinely nominated here (lookin' at you, Mr. Bay) -- so does John Carter have a chance? Huh. Maybe? The Dark Knight Rises is probably the more likely choice, but I'm just not feeling it. Probably my anti-Nolan bias coming through, though. Smart money says the bat gets in. Instead, I'm looking at Cloud Atlas.
1. Life of Pi (VES, CC)
2. The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey (VES, CC)
3. The Avengers (VES, CC)
4. Prometheus (VES
5. Cloud Atlas (CC)
6. John Carter
7. The Dark Knight Rises (CC
8. The Amazing Spider-Man
9. Skyfall
10. Snow White and the Huntsman
ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
I'm anticipating that one of the GKIDS entries will make it in --The Painting seems to be the consensus-- but which of the big studio pics will be knocked off? The top three I'm pretty confident in, so it's either Paranorman or Rise of the Guardians.
1. Brave (Globes, PGA, Chicago
2. Wreck-It Ralph (Globes, PGA, CC, Chicago
3. Frankenweenie (Globes, PGA, CC, Chicago, Boston
4. ParaNorman (PGA, CC, Chicago, Boston
5. Rise of the Guardians (PGA
6. The Painting
7. The Rabbi's Cat
8. The Pirates! Band of Misfits
9. A Liar's Autobiography: The Untrue Story of Monty Python's Graham Chapman
10. From Up on Poppy Hill
11. Zarafa
12. Madagascar 3: Europe's Most Wanted (CC
13. The Lorax
14. Hotel Transylvania (Globes
15. Ice Age: Continental Drift
DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
As per usual, anyone's guess is a good one. But unlike other years, there seems to be a large number of unusually good and popular documentaries in play. Searching for Sugar Man seems to be the only really safe bet here, but I'm also feeling How to Survive a Plague and The Gatekeepers. Given the international headlines, I think Bully has a good chance, but other Oscar nuts don't seem to be as confident, as with Ai Weiwei: Never Sorry. 5 Broken Cameras and Mea Maxima Culpa have seen some buzz, while Chasing Ice has been receiving praise for its camerawork.
1. Searching for Sugarman (CC, NSFC, Chicago)
2. How to Survive a Plague (Boston)
3. The Gatekeepers (LAFCA, NSFC Winner)
4. Mea Maxima Culpa: Silence in the House of God
5. 5 Broken Cameras
6. Bully (CC)
7. Ai Weiwei: Never Sorry
8. Chasing Ice
9. The Imposter
10. Detropia
11. The House I Live In
12. This is Not a Film (NSFC)
13. The Invisible War (Chicago)
14. The Waiting Room
15. Ethel
FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
So we're down to nine contenders, leaning heavy on European submissions. Amour looks to be in the mix, but there were some rumours that it may have been one of the committee's veto choices. The Intouchables is definitely in, given the branch's demographics, and Denmark's A Royal Affair has been solidly reviewed. But along from these three, any of the films have a good chance of being the lucky five. Who will miss?
1. The Intouchables, France (Globes, Chicago
2. Amour, Austria (Globes, NYFCC, LAFC Winner, Chicago, Boston
3. A Royal Affair, Denmark (Globes
4. War Witch, Canada
5. Kon-Tiki, Norway
6. The Deep, Iceland
7. No, Chile
8. Beyond the Hills, Romania
9. Sister, Switzerland
No comments:
Post a Comment